AS TH S THE DU E DUST ST SE SETT TTLE LES S REV EVIS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AS TH S THE DU E DUST ST SE SETT TTLE LES S REV EVIS ISITING ITING MA MAND NDATE TE 2019

DISCUSSING THE NEW DRIVERS VOTING PATTERN IN INDIA ANALYSING THROUGH GROUND ZERO PSEPHOLOGY

INDEX

• MACRO TRENDS/ BIG PICTURE
• MICRO TRENDS
• CASE STUDY (UP & BENGAL)
• WHO DID NOT VOTE FOR MODI

MACRO TRENDS

• DEPRECIATING VALUE OF CASTE IN DECIDING VOTING

OUTCOME

• DALIT- GREATER CROSS VOTING TENDENCY IN DALITS
• JAAT- NEW EMERGING CONSCIOSNESS IN JAAT VOTERS IN

2019 ELECTION

• EMERGENCE OF NEW SWING VOTER: THE INDIAN FEMALES

• A. DEPRECIATING VALUE OF CASTE IN DECIDING

VOTING OUTCOME.

1. GREATER CROSS VOTING TENDENCY IN DALITS 2014 2019 BJP 23% 35% ANTI-BJP 77% 65% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% VOTE SHARE

DALIT VOTERS IN 2019 ELECTION

MEN WOME N YOUTH ANTI-BJP 72% 61% 63% BJP 30% 39% 37% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

VOTE SHARE IN 2019

MODI FACE SCHEME NATION ALISM MEN 25% 40% 35% WOMEN 30% 45% 25% YOUTH 30% 15% 55% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

REASONING BEHIND VOTING FOR BJP IN 2019

LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY SHOWING DALIT TREND

• AGRA: JATAV DALIT DOMINATED SEAT WITH DALIT MORE THAN 30%
• MISRIKH: INDICATOR SEAT IN CENTRAL UP WHERE NON JATAV IS MORE

THAN JATAV.

• LALGANJ: SEAT IN EASTERN UP WHICH IS KNOWN FOR JATAV , NON JATAV

DIVIDE AND BSP HAS STRONG HOLD.

AGRA(UTTAR PRADESH): LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY TO SHOW DALIT TREND

2009 2014 2019 BSP VOTE SHARE 29.98% 26.48% 38.01% BJP VOTE SJHARE 31.48% 54.53% 56.48% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% VOTE SHARE

VOTE SHIFT IN DIFFERENT YEARS

AGRA(UTTAR PRADESH)

TOTAL DALIT: 5 Lakhs DALIT VOTED FOR BJP: 52% VOTE SHARE OF BJP IN DIFFERENT DALIT COMMUNITIES

2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION

MEN(25%) WOMEN(35%) YOUTH(40%)

MISRIKH(UTTAR PRADESH): LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY TO SHOW DALIT TREND

2009 2014 2019 BSP VOTE SHARE 34% 32.58% 41.33% BJP VOTE SHARE 10% 42.25% 52.05% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% VOTE SHARE

VOTE SHARE OF BJP - BSP IN LAST THREE ELECTION

MISRIKH(UTTAR PRADESH)

TOTAL DALIT: 4-5 Lakhs DALIT VOTED FOR BJP: 46-48% VOTE SHARE OF BJP IN DIFFERENT DALIT COMMUNITIES

2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION

MEN(29%) WOMEN(36%) YOUTH(35%)

LALGANJ (UTTAR PRADESH): LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY TO SHOW DALIT TREND

2009 2014 2019 BSP VOTE SHARE 31.59% 26.01% 54.01% BJP VOTE SHARE 25.52% 36.02% 37.19% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% VOTE SHARE

LALGANJ(UTTAR PRADESH)

TOTAL DALIT: 25% DALIT VOTED FOR BJP: 8-10% VOTE SHARE OF BJP IN DIFFERENT DALIT COMMUNITIES

2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION

MEN(28%) WOMEN(40%) YOUTH(32%)

JATAV VOTERS IN 2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION

MEN WOMEN YOUTH BJP 27% 40% 36% ANTI BJP 73% 60% 64% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

JATAV:

MAIN REASON BEHIND JATAV VOTING PATTERN FOR BJP IN 2019

MODI FACE PERFORMANCE LOCAL ISSUES NATIONALISM MEN 29% 24% 27% 20% WOMEN 31% 43% 8% 18% YOUTH 32% 17% 13% 38% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

NON JATAV VOTERS IN 2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION

MEN WOMEN YOUTH BJP 58% 62% 68% ANTI BJP 42% 38% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% VOTE SHARE

NON JATAV:

MAIN REASON BEHIND NON JATAV VOTING PATTERN FOR BJP IN 2019

MODI FACE PERFORMANCE LOCAL ISSUE NATIONALISM MEN 27% 19% 19% 35% WOMEN 29% 33% 15% 23% YOUTH 33% 12% 17% 38% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

NEW EMERGING CONSCIOSNESS IN JAAT VOTERS IN 2019 ELECTION

MEN WOMEN YOUTH BJP 63% 59% 66% ANTI BJP 37% 41% 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% VOTE SHARE

LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY TO SHOW JAAT VOTER’S TREND

• BAGPATH: JAAT VOTERS ARE SWING VOTERS.
• MATHURA: APPROX 2 LAKHS JAAT VOTERS ARE THERE.

BAGPATH (UTTAR PRADESH): LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY TO SHOW JAAT TREND

2014 2019 BJP 42.15% 50.32% RLD 19.86% 48.07% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% VOTE SHARE

MATHURA(UTTAR PRADESH):LOKSABHA CONSTITUENCY TO SHOW JAAT TREND

2014 2019 BJP 53.29% 60.88% RLD 22.62% 34.26% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% VOTE SHARE

VOTE SHARE OF BJP IN JAAT COMMUNITIES IN 2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION

BAGPATH

MEN(28%) WOMEN(40%) YOUTH(32%)

MATHURA

MEN(30%) WOMEN(41%) YOUTH(29%)

TOTAL JAAT: 4 LAKHS, JAAT VOTED FOR BJP: 70% TOTAL JAAT: 2 LAKHS, JAAT VOTED FOR BJP: 65%

EMERGENCE OF NEW SWING VOTER: THE INDIAN FEMALES

2014(OUT OF TOTAL VOTE SHARE OF BJP) 2019(OUT OF TOTAL VOTE SHARE OF BJP) UP 19%(42%) 24%(49%) BENGAL 15%(17%) 28%(40%) TAMILNADU 6.5%(18.5%) 8%(18.48%) KARNATAKA 20%(43%) 24%(51.4%) KERALA 4%(10.85%) 7%(15.20%) PUNJAB 5%(8.70%) 7%(9.64%) HARIYANA 15%(34%) 28%(58.03%) HIMACHAL PRADESH 8%(53.84%) 25%(68.95%)

WOMEN VOTING PATTERN

2014 2019 BJP 34% 48% ANTI BJP 66% 52% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% VOTE SHARE

SEATS WHERE WOMEN VOTERS PLAYED AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN 2019

• SHIMLA(HIMACHAL PRADESH): IN THIS SEAT URBAN WOMEN

VOTERS(ESPECIALLY YOUTH) ARE MORE DECIDING.

• MACHHLISAHAR(UP): IN CENTRAL UP THIS SEAT IS DALIT DOMINATED
• SEAT. HERE WOMEN VOTED FOR CHANGE.
• RANAGHAT(WEST BENGAL): AFTER THE PACHAYATI ELECTIONS, THE

IMPORTANCE OF WOMEN HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY HERE.

SEAT WHERE WOMEN VOTERS PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN 2019

18-30 30-50 50+ BJP 80% 65% 59% ANTI BJP 20% 35% 41% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% VOTE SHARE

SHIMLA (HIMACHAL PRADESH)

SEATS WHERE WOMEN VOTERS PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN 2019

GENERAL MUSLIM OBC SC/ST BJP 70% 5% 40% 43% ANTI BJP 30% 95% 60% 57% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% VOTE SHAE

MACHHLISAHAR(UP)

SEATS WHERE WOMEN VOTERS PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN 2019

18-30 30-50 50+ BJP 45% 65% 50% ANTI BJP 55% 35% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% VOTE SHARE

RANAGHAT, WB

MICRO TRENDS

• MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR TO WIN A CONSTITUENCY
• INCREASE IN VALUE OF MAJORITY VOTE AND NEUTRALISATION OF

MINORITY VOTE

MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR TO WIN A CONSTITUENCY

PERFORMANCE/NON PERFORMANCE OF CANDIDATE

2009 2014 2019 PERFORMANCE 60% 35% 20% NON PERFORMANCE 40% 65% 80% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% VOTE SHARE

TOP VOTE DRIVERS

2009 2014 2019 NATIONAL LEADERSHIP 27% 47% 65% WORK DONE INTENT OF CANDIDATE 23% 20% 5% WORK DONE DELIVERY OF CANDIDATE 29% 8% 10% LOCAL FACTOR 21% 25% 20%

PERFORMANCE/ NON PERFORMANCE OF CANDIDATE IN 2019 ELECTION

• THIRUVANANTHAPURAM (KERALA): INSPITE OF MODI

WAVE, PEOPLE HAVE SELECTED PERFORMANCE OF SHASHI THAROOR(INC).

• KOLHAPUR(MAHARASTRA): LOST BECAUSE OF BAD

PERFORMANCE OF THE CANDIDATE DHANANJAY (NCP).

• BADAUN(UP): LOST DESPITE OF PERFORMANCE OF THE

CANDIDATE DHARMENDRA YADAV(SP)

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM (K (KERALA)

MEN WOMEN YOUTH PERFORMANCE 55% 60% 70% NON PERFORMANCE 45% 40% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% VOTE SHARE

LOKSABHA ELECTION 2019

SEAT SHOWING PERFORMANCE/NON PERFORMANCE OF CANDIDATE IN 2019 ELECTION

KOLHAPUR(MAHARASTRA) SEAT SHOWING PERFORMANCE/NON PERFORMANCE OF CANDIDATE IN 2019 ELECTION

MEN WOMEN YOUTH PERFORMANCE 57% 58% 60% NON PERFORMANCE 43% 42% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% VOTE SHARE

LOKSABHA ELECTION 2019

BADAUN(UTTAR PRADESH) SEAT SHOWING PERFORMANCE/NON PERFORMANCE OF CANDIDATE IN 2019 ELECTION

MEN WOMEN YOUTH PERFORMANCE 43% 30% 40% NON PERFORMANCE 57% 70% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% VOTE SHARE

LOKSABHA ELECTION 2019

INCREASE IN VALUE OF MAJORITY VOTE AND NEUTRALISATION OF MINORITY VOTE UTTAR PRADESH: SHRAWASTI

2014 2019 MAJORITY VOTE 33% 41% MINORITY VOTE 2% 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% VOTE SHARE MAJORITY: HINDU(69%) MINORITY: MUSLIM(31%)

INCREASE IN VALUE OF MAJORITY VOTE AND NEUTRALISATION OF MINORITY VOTE

MAJORITY MINORITY 2014 20% 80% 2019 40% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% VOTE SHARE

KARIMGANJ(ASSAM)

MAJORITY: HINDU(50%) MINORITY: MUSLIM(50%)

ANALYSING THE HISTORIC RESULTS OF UP & BENGAL

WESTERN BUNDELKHAN D EAST CENTRAL BJP 46% 45% 43% 39% ANTI BJP 54% 55% 57% 61% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% VOTE SHARE

2014 LOKSABHA ELECTION UTTAR PRADESH: VOTING PATTERN IN DIFFERENT REGION

UTTAR PRADESH: VOTING PATTERN IN DIFFERENT REGION

WESTERN BUNDELKHAN D EASTERN CENTRAL BJP 50% 54% 47% 48% ANTI BJP 50% 46% 53% 52% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% VOTE SHARE

2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION

UTTAR PRADESH: HOW DIFFERENT COMMUNITY VOTED FOR BJP IN 2019

WESTERN BUNDELKHA ND CENTRAL EASTERN MODI FACE 45% 36% 46% 48% LOCAL ISSUE 20% 26% 12% 23% NATIONALISM 35% 38% 42% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% VOTE SHARE

UTTAR PRADESH

BENGAL: VOTING PATTERN IN DIFFERENT REGION

NORTH CENTRAL NORTH KOLKATA REGION WEST BJP 24% 15% 18% 13.34% ANTI BJP 76% 85.00% 82.00% 86.66% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% VOTE SHARE

2014 LOKSABHA ELECTION

BENGAL: VOTING PATTERN IN DIFFERENT REGION

NORTH CENTRAL NORTH KOLKATA REGION WEST BJP 50% 34% 38% 45.00% ANTI BJP 50% 66.00% 62.00% 55.00% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% VOTE SHARE

2019 LOKSABHA ELECTION

BENGAL: HOW DIFFERENT COMMUNITY VOTED FOR BJP IN 2019

NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH WEST MODI FACE 40% 30% 45% 45% LOCAL ISSUE 40% 50% 30% 35% NATIONALISM 20% 20% 25% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% VOTE SHARE

WHO DID NOT VOTED FOR MODI IN DIFFERENT STATES IN 2019

STATES MEN WOMEN YOUTH UP 54% 51% 47% KERALA 88% 80% 86% RAJASTHAN 41% 45% 38% BENGAL 55% 45% 40% ODISHA 69% 61% 52% ANDHRA PRADESH 80% 85% 90% TAMILNADU(NDA) 77% 74% 85% PUNJAB(NDA) 59% 70% 61% HIMACHAL PRADESH 35% 25% 29% KARNATAKA 18% 16% 14%

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