Arizona Water Policy: Should we be worried? NACOG February 6, 2020 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Arizona Water Policy: Should we be worried? NACOG February 6, 2020 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Arizona Water Policy: Should we be worried? NACOG February 6, 2020 1 Arizonas Water Problem Annual Rainfall 2 Source: Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona WHERE DOES OUR WATER COME FROM? 3 Arizonas Sources of

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Arizona Water Policy: Should we be worried?

NACOG

February 6, 2020

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Arizona’s “Water Problem”

Annual Rainfall

Source: Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona 2
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WHERE DOES OUR WATER COME FROM?

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Arizona’s Sources of Water

Colorado 39% Other Surface 19% [CATEGO RY NAME] [PERCENT AGE] [CATEGO RY NAME] [PERCENT AGE]

Colorado Other Surface Groundwater Effluent Source: Arizona Dept. of Water Resources 4
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The Colorado River Basin

  • 40 million people
  • 7 states, 22 tribes

& Mexico

  • 4.5 million acres

agriculture

  • Significant

biodiversity

  • Grand Canyon &
  • ther national

parks & monuments

Source: US Bureau of Reclamation 5
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SLIDE 6 Source: Central Arizona Water Conservation Dist.
  • 83% Arizonans in service area
  • Maricopa, Pinal & Pima Counties
  • 330 miles
  • 2400’ elevation change
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SLIDE 7 Source: Univ. of Ariz. Coop. Extension

Arizona Watersheds

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Avondale, Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe, Tolleson

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SRP Inflows & Outflows

9 Source: SRP
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WHERE DOES THE WATER GO?

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Arizona Water Demand by Sector

Municipal 24 % Industrial 8 % Agriculture 68 %

Annual Demand ≈ 6.28 MAF

Source: Arizona Dept. of Water Resources
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How much is an acre- foot?

325,851 gallons

2 – 4 households/year

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Phoenix AMA Demand

Annual Demand ≈ 2.29 MAF

Source: ADWR Phoenix AMA Assessment (2017)

Municipal 49% Agriculture 32% Industrial 8% Tribal 11%

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What’s going right?

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Water Demand & Growth

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0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Agricultural Demand (% / Statewide)

Source: Arizona Dept. of Water Resources 16
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Phoenix Population and Water Use

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900,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 1,500,000 1,600,000 1,700,000 50 100 150 200 250 300

Population GPCD

Population Total GPCD Residential GPCD

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Example of a Phoenix Neighborhood

Source: City of Phoenix
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greater water demand more people & bigger economy

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Active Management Areas

Groundwater Management Act of 1980

Sources: HDR, Technical Memorandum (Dec. 3, 2013); ADWR 20
  • 83% of Arizonans
  • Water banking
  • 95% re-use
  • Mandatory system-level

conservation

  • 100-year Assured Water

Supply requirement

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Active Management Areas

Groundwater Management

Sources: HDR, Technical Memorandum (Dec. 3, 2013); ADWR 21

growth is tied to renewable supplies

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Greater Phoenix – Palo Verde NGS Tucson – 18 golf courses ▪ Scottsdale – 23 golf courses Chandler – Intel Ocotillo Plant Gilbert, Phoenix, Tucson – Constructed Wetlands & Some Agriculture

Water ReUse

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Water Banking

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11 MAF

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What should we be worried about?

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Colorado River Supplies

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Lake Mead Structural Deficit

Inflow = + 9.0 MAF Outflow = - 9.6 MAF Evaporation = - 0.6 MAF Balance = - 1.2 MAF

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CAP delivers ~ 1.6 MAF/yr

  • Maricopa
  • Pinal
  • Pima
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Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan

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Arizona DCP – Who’s Impacted

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 Acre Feet Indian Priority 326 KAF M&I Priority 448 KAF NIA Priority 222 KAF Ag Pool 157 KAF Ag Pool Shortage 143 KAF Other Excess Shortage Priority 3 - 68 KAF

CAP Delivery Priority

Low High

Cities Tribes Pinal County Ag Tribes, Cities, Homebuilders

Tier 1 (512 KAF) Tier 2a (590 KAF) Tier 3 (720 KAF) Tier 2b (640 KAF)

Not to scale!

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Arizona DCP – Mitigation Plan

2020-22

  • 100% mitigation for NIA Pool
  • Fixed volume for Ag Pool, depending on tier

2023-25

  • No Ag Pool mitigation (conversion to

groundwater)

  • NIA volume tbd based on orders & conditions

○ 75% under Tier 1 & Tier 2a ○ 50% under Tier 2b

  • M&I & Indian full mitigation

2026 or Tier 3: No Mitigation

Indian Priority 326 KAF M&I Priority 448 KAF NIA Priority 222 KAF Ag Pool 157 KAF Ag Pool Shortage 143 KAF Other Excess Shortage Priority 3 - 68 KAF
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Arizona DCP - Implications

  • 1. Reduces risk of a Tier 3 shortage (protects

cities)

  • 2. Provides ground rules to enable conservation

in Lake Mead

  • 3. Mitigates impacts of cuts to Ag & NIA
  • 4. ~ $200 million cost (CAP, state & federal)
  • 5. Increases groundwater mining in Pinal

County

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Lake Mead Storage with DCP in Place

1,025' 1,050' 1,100' 1,125' 1,150' 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Lake Mead End of Calendar Year Elevation

Level 2 Shortage Condition Level 3 Shortage Condition and reconsultation under the 2007 Interim Guidelines 1,000' Projected end of CY 2019 elevation is 1,089.40 feet (based on August 24-Month Study) Surplus Condition Adoption of 2007 Interim Guidelines Normal or ICS Surplus Condition 1,075' IBWC Level 1 Shortage Condition Minute 318 IBWC Minute 319 Pilot System Conservation Program and Lower Basin Drought MOU IBWC Minute 323 DCP & BWSCP
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Groundwater Dependent Places

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Groundwater Dependent Places

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Arizona Water Rights Cases

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Verde Basin Well Development – 1974 (2,311 wells)

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Verde Basin Well Development – 1987 (7,457 wells)

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Verde Basin Well Development – 2017 (17,754 wells)

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The 4 Forest Restoration Initiative

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supplies for growth

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The Arizona Republic

March 5, 2019

‘A recipe for disaster’: Pinal County might not have enough water for 139,000 planned homes

State water regulators have confirmed their data shows there may not be enough water underground for dozens of planned developments in Pinal County, new subdivisions that, if built, would bring more than 139,000 homes. That finding is based on data the Arizona Department of Water Resources has complied that shows a long-term groundwater shortage in the area is possible. The data, which The Arizona Republic obtained through a public-records request, raises red flags about growth and the water supply in one of the fastest growing parts of the state.

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SLIDE 46 Source: CAGRD
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  • Water Supply Planning
  • Adjudication
  • Colorado River
  • Rural Groundwater
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Sarah Porter 602-828-0866 s.porter@asu.edu

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new infrastructure & supplies

visual

augmentation strategies

Arizona’s water future

policy barriers

water data hub

partnerships

durable

new uses of infrastructur e

modern

re-envision policy

dynamic web-based application

continually updated

project costs

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Data layers (to date)

Watersheds Sub Watersheds Aquifers Groundwater Basins Streams Rivers Land Subsidence Dams Water Treatment Facilities CAP Canal CAP–SRP Interconnect SRP Canals Underground Storage Facilities Groundwater Savings Facilities Active Management Areas Irrigation Non-expansion Areas Adjudication Areas Adjudication Sub-areas Irrigation Districts Municipal Boundaries Municipal Populations Municipal Water Service Areas Private Water Company Service Areas Community Water Service Areas CAGRD Member Land Subdivisions CAGRD Member Service Areas Buckeye Waterlogged Area Critical Habitat Important Bird Areas Land Ownership Mines Tribal Leases ADWR Planning Areas Augmentation Projects Augmentation Projects Viability Delivery Infrastructure Projects

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Spatial exploration

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Data visualizations

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Municipal resilience

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Topics for upcoming meetings: History, context and bigger picture regarding significant water policies (how we got here) Rural water hotspots and challenges, including hotspots like Supplies/options for management within AMAs Water for Arizona agriculture Urban water management Change the Arizona dialogue Data and projections Water technologies Adjudication Habitat values and ecosystem services Misconceptions > Myth busters

Tool for dialogue & planning

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Augmentation Concepts

  • Cost
  • Capacity
  • Regulatory

hurdles

  • Timeline
  • Beneficiaries
  • Potential partners
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50 100 150 200 250 300 350

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AWBA Long Term Storage Credits 1997-2016

KAF 192 KAF

Source AZ Water Banking Auth. 57
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Greater Phoenix’s Water Sources

CAP 41% Groundwat er 30% Effluent 2% Salt-Verde 27%

CAP Groundwater Effluent Salt-Verde Source: Arizona Dept. of Water Resources 58
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SLIDE 59 900,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 1,500,000 1,600,000 1,700,000 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Pho Phoen enix Re ix Reside sidential ntial Wate Water Us r Use

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Upper San Pedro Basin – 1987 Well Development (3,592 wells)

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Upper San Pedro Basin – 2017 Well Development (8,765 wells)