Large variations are added by irregular oscillations in oceanic and atmospheric patterns El Niño La Niña El Ni ñ o Pacific Ocean 0 -4 +4 extreme difference from “normal,” °C - 2 - 0 4 2 4
b El Niño Major volcanic eruption La Niña Warm El Niño tropical Pacific releases ocean heat to air Cool La Niña is less cloudy, so water absorbs more solar heat and atmosphere gets less
Annual global surface air temp. change, 1983-2013 (~2% of total heating) How to lie with statistics: start with 1998 El Niño up-blip, ignore the 98% of added heat that went elsewhere, and say “Earth has been Heat added to oceans cooling since 1998 (~93% of total and there is no warming) greenhouse effect” oceans 1983-2013 (ice melting also increased)
Surface warming has been greatest in high northern latitudes (J. Hansen, 2014)
Bright colors show area more than 30% covered by ice at Sept. minimum. Proportion of ice to water has also decreased, and ice has thinned U. Illinois/NASA
winter maximum summer minimum down 35% down 75% Each squiggly line shows 34 years of data for that month
Feedbacks: Melting ice decreases Arctic high air pressure, so warmer air comes in and melts more ice More heat is retained by water and air each year because there is less and thinner ice to melt and to reflect solar radiation The Arctic Ocean will soon be ice-free for much of the summer
Thawing-permafrost lakes, NW Canada. Trees topple as frozen mud melts. Melting releases methane WH photo
South tip of Greenland WH photo
Summer melting of Greenland ice sheet 2012 Red shows maximum area of summer surface melting ( not area of disappearance of ice) . Thinning and warming of outer part cause interior to flow faster into melt zone. Temperature change/melting is nonlinear Satellite radar data
Arctic smog, from Asian coal burning. Soot on snow and ice decreases reflectivity and increases melting ( NW Alaska) WH photo
Reflectivity of Greenland ice sheet was decreased by soot and dust, 2011 vs. 2000-2006 mean, by 5% in interior, and up to 15% in marginal melt zone Ohio St. U ./ NASA Greenland lost ~2000 km 3 of ice 2002-2010 (Rodell et al., Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 2011)
INCREASING EXTREME WEATHER Arctic high air pressure drives northern jet stream of mostly-eastward winds at top of troposphere along the main gradient between polar and temperate air. Broad waveforms of the boundary have historically migrated slowly W, whereas most deeply kinked “ridge” and “trough” waveforms (air -mass frontal systems) moved rapidly E . Air-pressure contrast and jetstream velocities decrease as Arctic warms more than midlatitudes, and both broad waveforms and frontal kinks increasingly stall. This increases extreme weather and changes regional patterns
Average velocity of northern jet stream has decreased 15% in last 15 years, and irregular and stalled jet and air masses have become much more common This is a major factor in the increase in extreme weather events accompanying AGW
Surface temp., Dec. 2013 vs. 1951-1980 ave., ° C (Hansen, 2014)
2012 was warmest ever recorded in US because jet stream stayed north and left U.S. under stagnant +5°C Departure of July 2012 high air pressure 0 temp. from 1981-2010 July average (NOAA) -5 Northern jet stream, 1- 7 July ‘12 England’s summer 2012 was wettest in 100 years
1975 June-July-August (colors surface temp. relative typical of to 1951-1980 mean pre-1980) Prolonged high T has become much more 2010 common. Precipitation also changes; example, midcontinent U S drought 2011 J. Hansen et al., NASA, 2012 ∆ T ° C
Extreme weather events are increasing in both number and severity Number of natural disasters, 1980-2011 hi temp, drought, 1000 forest fires floods, slides storms quakes, volcanos 0 1980 2011 Munich Re, 2012
Tornado path near Peoria IL, 17 Nov. 2013. Nathan Weber photo
North American jet stream was in slow-erratic AGW mode 9-14 Sept. 2013 (= N Colorado floods) 9 10 11 12 13 14 daily maps, midnight MDT
East side of northern Colo. Front Range got 10-20 inches of rain 9-14 Sept (mostly 11 & 12) 2013, with stalled weather pattern Height of 500 mbars, 12 Sept. Upper level Low , blocked by 24 hr rainfall ending stalled Highs , pulled wet 6 am local, 12 Sept tropical Pacific air Surface weather, to north for 5 days 12 Sept. Stalled front produced (Similar unique floods upslope winds to hit Vegas and Calgary mountains earlier in summer)
TOTAL RAINFALL, 9-14 SEP. 2013 Orange-red-pink = 4 to 20 inches
W W Hay photo South St. Vrain River above Lyons, 12 Sep 2013
2012 Hurricane Sandy was enlarged and brought onshore by AGW NASA
Sandy’s left turn Sandy grew was due to going N global because warming sea surface was 3 °C warmer 6-hr positions than historic norm 23 Oct
Tracks (red) of all Atlantic hurricanes close to U.S. east coast, 1900-2009 E-moving air masses have kept hurricanes out to sea. Sandy was Sandy, 2012 blocked and turned by an AGW effect NOAA, 2010
Jet stream, 7 a.m. local, 29 Oct. 2012, 13 hrs before landfall. Velocity shown by color, direction by tiny arrows, altitude (~9 km) by 50 m contours. High-P ridge, stalled for a week as AGW effect, blocked both Sandy and E-moving front in NW FRONT NW-ward frontal jet stream in S + clockwise flow + Sandy around stalled high in N pulled Sandy ashore 0 50 100 140 miles/hour
Hurricane storm surges (sea level is raised by low air pressure + push by onshore winds) are increasing with AGW Sandy had lowest air pressure ever recorded N of South Carolina, and second-highest integrated area and strength of wind field for any landing U S hurricane New Jersey coast
Hurricanes require Coriolis force to develop winds, but are becoming more common close to equator with warming. Typhoon (hurricane) Bopha, Dec. 2012, hit southern Philippines with >160 mph winds, by far the strongest ever recorded there equator
Huge Typhoon Haiyan, possibly strongest ever recorded anywhere, followed in Nov. 2013 Bopha and Haiyan were augmented by warmed ocean, and kept south of all prior major hurricanes by unusual high air pressure to north
Haiyan had sustained winds to 195 mph, gusts to 235, just before landing with a 20-foot storm surge. Killed 6000 people, destroyed 550,000 homes.
Density, grams/cm³ Density increases with salinity, decreases with temp. Temperature, ° C Ocean water is layered or graded by density, which produces subhorizontal currents Almost-fresh ice freezes from seawater at -2 ° C
Deep cold water leaves the Arctic Ocean mostly between Greenland and Norway
Warm shallow Gulf Stream is a response to cold deep outflow, which must now be decreasing, from the Arctic Ocean. The Gulf Stream makes Britain, Iceland, and Norway habitable SHALLOW CURRENTS WARM COLD DEEP CURRENTS COLD
Antarctic bottom water Colors show thickness (0 to flows as far as Portugal 2.5 km) of -2 to +2 ° C cold bottom water. Depth to top (red numbers) increased ~100 S.Am m, 1980-2011. This warming is ~10% of total heat added to oceans Ant. in last 30 years How will increasing change affect Antarctic ice melting, and Atlantic circulation and climate? Aust . Purkey & Johnson, J. Climate, 2012
Byrd +3°C The floating and grounded ice that buttresses West Antarctic ice sheet is shrinking rapidly in thickness and area sub-ice topography What is the threshold for runaway outflow and melting of West Antarctic ice sheet?
420,000 years ago Interior Antarctic record ~1950 Tropical corals show that sea level during this interglacial peaked 8 m above present level, so there was then only half as much ice in West Antarctica and Greenland as now (Dutton & Lambeck, Science 2012) Maximum CO 2 then, and at any other time in last 420,000 yrs, was 300 ppm, but CO 2 is now 400 and climbing fast
East Antarctic summers are warming but still cold, and most ice is still stable WH photo
The other CO 2 crisis: acidification of oceans by the 55% of anthropogenic CO 2 that goes into them will have huge effect on biota CO 2 ionizes with water Mostly: CO 2 + H 2 O ↔ H + + HCO 3 - The amount of H + defines acidity (and pH) A very small part reacts further: - ↔ 2H + + CO 3 H + + HCO 3 2-
2- ) can combine Only the carbonate ion (CO 3 with Ca 2+ ions (from erosion of land) to make solid CaCO 3 for limestone and shells, precipitation of which will, over thousands of years , slowly remove excess CO 2 Increasing CO 2 increases H + , which dissolves existing CaCO 3 and inhibits precipitation of more by organisms The total CO 2 addition has increased average acidity ~30% in the top 2000 feet of the oceans
North Pacific pH traverse, 1991 and 2006, top 1000 m of ocean pH south 2006 pH north 8 1000 pH change, 1991-2006 7 0 0.08 Byrne et al., GRL 2010
A great many marine organisms have CaCO 3 shells or frameworks, precipitated by combining 2- with Ca 2+ . Converting HCO 3 - to CO 3 2- to CO 3 make CaCO 3 requires more chemical energy as H + increases. 1/3 of all coral reefs have already been killed by their inability to provide the extra energy
Larval invertebrates must begin shell formation immediately after hatching, and now die in some large regions and times when they run out of egg material to supply additional needed chemical energy Broad die-offs will be devastating within15 or 20 years in high-latitude shallow water and in cool coastal upwellings, including that along western U S, and later will affect the entire oceanic food chain
Floating microscopic plants are the base of the oceanic food chain, and produce about as much O 2 as do land plants. Increasing acidity decreases fixation of the nitrogen they need. They are already depleted in some ocean areas
The “climate debate” by the secretly funded anti-science industry has no valid science content Heartland Institute Science and Public Policy Institute American Legislative Exchange Council Most of their many publications are free on their websites.
Heartland megabillboard on I-90 in Chicago, 2012
Subtitle: “How the regulatory class is using bogus claims about climate change to Scientists and gov’t. agencies entrench and extend their falsify climate data to subvert economic privilege and political control” (SPPI, 2012) free enterprise (SPPI, 2011)
Dishonest scientists and governments waste tax money on alternative- energy research instead of deregulating production and combustion of beneficial carbon fuels (Heartland book, 2012)
(SPPI, 2011)
The A merican L egislative E xchange C ouncil writes the pro- industry and anti- environmental and anti-science legislation that is passed by many state legislatures The Environmental Protection Agency must be abolished because its regulation of the fuel and energy industries (which cause neither pollution nor climate change) wastes everyone’s money (2012)
The American Association of Petroleum Geologists gave its 2006 Journalism Award to Michael Crichton for his sci- fi novel “State of Fear,” wherein scientists and environmentalists conspire to induce mass- murder “natural” disasters that will frighten people to accept the global-warming hoax and then to destroy capitalism
WSJ, 21 Nov. 2013, the day after Japan announced that it would do nothing to reduce CO 2 emissions: “Despite the shock and horror professed by global climate mandarins, Japan . . . is striking a smarter balance between the uncertainty of global-warming predictions and current economic reality”
Efforts to address climate change should focus on engineering to adapt to shifting weather patterns and rising sea levels, not on cutting use of fossil fuels Rex Tillerson , CEO, President, and Chairman of ExxonMobil, press conference 27 June 2012
NOW Likely little will be done to curb CO 2 release, and carbon fuels will be used until the energy cost of producing them becomes prohibitive
Alberta “tar” sands West Virginia coal Wyoming coa l Sacrifice source regions will much enlarge (pics via Google)
Our global experiment has quickly brought us here. What is coming? atmos. data
History of oceans for last 65 m.y. We know a great deal about past CO 2 , temp., etc. Now 65 m.y. R. Norris et al., Science, 2013
In ~25% of last half-billion years, Earth has had CO 2 <300 ppm and ice at both poles, and the large ∆T to tropics has driven climates broadly similar to present plus ice ages About 70% of time, CO 2 >400 or 500 ppm, no ice, small ∆T, far warmer at all latitudes, much higher sea levels, low oxygen and low productivity of oceans About 5% of time, CO 2 >800 ppm, global hothouse (W. W. Hay, 2013)
Plate tectonics has moved Australia + New Zealand rapidly north, widening ocean south to Antarctica. By ~35 m.y. ago. Increasing circumglobal Southern Ocean circulation allowed glaciation of Antarctica, and freezing of Arctic Ocean, to begin
Alternating continental glaciations and interglacials of Canada etc. began only ~2 million years ago Reason? — jamming of island arcs and continental fragments between converging Australia and Asia blocked circulation between tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and cooled the latter
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