ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING Warren Hamilton Dept. of Geophysics - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING

Warren Hamilton

• Dept. of Geophysics

Colorado School of Mines 2014

My front porch, 20 Nov. 2013

Lodgepole pine forest, Lake Dillon CO Earth’s atmosphere and hydrosphere are warming

There is no significant scientific debate on the reality of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) The near-total consensus by climate scientists,

• ceanographers, etc. is supported by fast-

increasing data that prove accelerating change and its man-made cause

At issue are not slight poleward shifts of temperatures and a sea-level rise of a foot

• r two

Atmospheric and oceanic thresholds and feedbacks have much increased extreme weather events, and increases would continue for many centuries even if all emissions of new CO2 were stopped now

The public has been misled by a campaign that claims a major scientific controversy where none exists In order to block regulation of carbon fuels, industry-front institutes, which generate no science, target anti-science and anti- government politicians, journalists, and voters by lying about the data and by denouncing global warming as a hoax

The disinformation industry has for 50 years attacked with lies and distortions whatever science threatens profits of its secret sponsors 2010

Earth’s surface temperature is maintained by the Sun, and heats or cools when radiation back to space of incoming solar radiation is decreased or increased by changing reflection + re-radiation + greenhouse effect

Greenhouse gases absorb and re-radiate solar radiation

Visible light + near-ultraviolet and near-infrared, radiated from ~5500 °C K Sun surface, warm Earth’s surface to average ~15 °C. Mid and far IR re-radiated by surface at this temp. is partly absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases, which again re-radiate it, some of it back down

Irradiance

Water-vapor greenhouse keeps humid eastern U.S. hot all night, and lack of it lets dry desert cool overnight

Feedback: Global humidity has increased ~4% with recent warming of atmosphere. Water vapor (blue) has ~3x the greenhouse effect of CO2 (yellow) and dominates the warm-air low-latitude greenhouse, but CO2 dominates cold-air high- latitude effect

Solar insolation at top of atmosphere averages 340 Watts per square meter of Earth-surface area Current AGW represents retention of only ~0.8 W/m2 of extra heat (~0.2% of insolation) (Geothermal heat loss from Earth’s interior is

• nly 0.06 W/m2 )

ALL THE WORLD’S WATER

(J Cook & H Perlman)

Oceans can hold ~1000x more heat than air, and get >90% of AGW heat

John Cook, from IGPP 2007 data; ~93% to oceans continues (NOAA/NODC, 2012)

Melting ice absorbs ~2% Only ~2% stays in atmosphere ~2% warms the land

Oceans, 0-700 m depth Oceans, 700-2000 m depth Atmosphere + land + ice melting

Change in heat content, 1958-2011

20 15 10 5

• 5

(NOAA 2012 data, Nuccitelli et al. 2012 plot)

5-year moving averages 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1022 Joules

(Increasing heat, not

shown, goes deeper than 2000 m)

The science-denial industry obfuscates the 2% of anthropogenic heating that warms the atmosphere, ignores or misstates the important high-latitude part

• f that, and ignores the other 98%

Surface and lower-atmosphere changes are similar (NOAA, 2011)

Most science deniers assert that recent atmospheric changes are due to natural solar-intensity variations Total solar irradiance, 1975-2013

Insolation measured at top of atmosphere, per square meter of Earth’s cross-section (not of its surface area, which is ~340 W/m2) (J. Hansen, 2014)

Most mountain glaciers have been shrinking fast, especially since ~1970

Athabaska Glacier, Alberta WH photos

1954 1970 2000

1954

But what about changes since the Little Ice Age peak, ~1700-1850, in North Atlantic region? Gorner Glacier, Switzerland 1968, WH photo Little Ice Age max. ice 2004, photo via Google 1968 ice level About as much change in 36 years after 1968 (and much more since) as in ~150 years before 1968

ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GASES, 1000-2011 A.D., show abrupt great increases

air data

Anthropogenic increase ± natural values

Methane (CH4) is 20x more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 . Much leakage from gas and oil

• perations. Natural max. within last 420 kyr

was 800 ppb. Now 1800 ppb and rising fast, it adds ~10% to effect of CO2 Melting of vast quantity of submarine solid methane hydrate cement in continental shelves and slopes would cause another Eocene super-hothouse Earth

CHEMICAL REACTIONS Coal is ~90% carbon, which burns C + O2 CO2 Atomic weights = 12 + (2 x 16) = 44, so mass of CO2 released by burning is 3.7 times that of the carbon Oil and natural gas are hydrocarbons (as, methane, CH4 ). The 3.7x applies to the carbon, but the hydrogen burns to water 4H + O2 2H2O

1958-2012

now increasing 2.3 ppm/yr 1960 increase 0.7 ppm/yr Rates of manmade CO2 release and of CO2 increase in air both increased ~3x in 50 yrs

In 2011, man added 39 Gt (gigatonnes = billion metric tons) of CO2 to atmosphere: 32 Gt from fossil fuels, 5 from deforestation and land-use changes, and 2 from cement manufacture 1 ppmv CO2 has a mass (weight) of 8 Gt, so this addition was equivalent to 5 ppmv; but measured net increase was only 2.3 ppmv, so 2.7 went into

• ceans

“Changes in atmospheric CO2 do not correlate with human emissions of CO2 , the latter being entirely trivial in the global balance”

2010 Policy Document of science-denial Heartland Institute

Vostok (interior East Antarctica) ice-core climate record of last 420,000 years. Green = paleoatmospheric CO2 in air bubbles in ice. Red = temperature relative to present T at site, and blue = global sea level, from O and H isotopes. CO2 correlates with T. CO2 varied naturally only from 180 to 300 ppm, but with man-made increase it is now 400 ppm and climbing fast

ago

420,000 years ago NOW

CO2 now 400 ppm Hansen et al., Phil. Tr. Roy. Soc. 2007

Earth’s orbital and spin variations forced the glacial and interglacial alternations of the past 2 million years ECCENTRICITY of orbit changes seasonal distance from Sun, 100,000 year period TILT of spin axis to orbital plane changes seasonal contrast, 41,000 year period WOBBLE of spin axis, changes direction of axis in space, 26,000 year period These superimposed cycles change hemispheric, seasonal, and latitudinal distribution of solar heat, but not its total annual amount

Thousands of years ago

The orbital and spin interactions cause variations to ± 8% in solar irradiation received at high latitudes in late spring. N hemisphere is most important

420,000 years ago Now

Hansen et al., Phil.Tr.Roy.Soc. 2007

Near future (not shown) is a broad middle-height peak, not an ice age

420,000 years ago Interior Antarctic record ~1950 . Antarctic warmings began or were underway when northern spring solar insolation peaked, reached maxima quickly, and tended to last until after northern insolation minima. Thresholds, feedbacks, thermal inertia of ice sheets, lags between oceanic and continental changes, and dominance of the 100 kyr eccentricity cycle preclude 1:1 correlations

Northern hemisphere continental ice sheets ~25,000 years ago. Ice (light blue) was grounded to edges of continental shelves, which elsewhere (green) were mostly above sea level, then 120 m lower than now

High-resolution record: release of CO2 (blue dots) from ocean drove the last major deglaciation Mean global surface T from proxies in sediment

• cores. Antarctic surface T (normalized to global) and

atmospheric CO2 from ice cores (Shakun et al., Nature, 2012)

surface T

X

Slow rise in global and Antarctic T from 22 to 18 kyr ago, due to orbit + spin, shifted Southern Ocean winds

• southward. Warming upwelling slowly released CO2

(blue dots). Feedback accelerated CO2 release ~18 kyr ago, and CO2 drove the deglaciation

Unique stable CO2 , sea level, and favorable climate of past 10,000 yrs enabled agriculture and civilization

now

CO2 , 7000 yrs ago to present, same scale

NOW 400 ppm 280 ppm 180 ppm 1850

Slow CO2 increase of 80 ppm raised global surface T ~3.5°C, melted most non-Ant. continental ice, and raised sea level 120 m, with lag of ~1000 years to full effect

We have increased CO2 120 ppm (50% more and 200x faster). ∆T so far is only ~1°C, but much more is “in the bank”

COMPLICATIONS Light-colored aerosols (as, SO2) from combustion and volcanoes reflect solar radiation and cool Earth’s surface. Dark aerosols and soot absorb radiation and warm surface. Both increase clouds, which mostly cool by

• reflection. Jet contrails increase high clouds

Aerosols

W W Hay slide

Vast increase in dirty combustion + contrails; increased reflectivity cooling offset greenhouse warming

cleaner burning, rapid greenhouse increase CO2 rapidly increasing Global air temperature at surface has warmed ~1°C since 1920, with rate highest since ~1975

NASA

El Niño

• 4
• 2

4 2

Large variations are added by irregular oscillations in oceanic and atmospheric patterns El Niño La Niña

• 4

+4 extreme difference from “normal,” °C Pacific Ocean

La Niña

b

El Niño Major volcanic eruption Warm El Niño tropical Pacific releases ocean heat to air Cool La Niña is less cloudy, so water absorbs more solar heat and atmosphere gets less

• ceans

Annual global surface air temp. change, 1983-2013 (~2% of total heating) Heat added to oceans (~93% of total warming) 1983-2013 (ice melting also increased) How to lie with statistics: start with 1998 El Niño up-blip, ignore the 98% of added heat that went elsewhere, and say “Earth has been cooling since 1998 and there is no greenhouse effect”

Surface warming has been greatest in high northern latitudes

(J. Hansen, 2014)

Bright colors show area more than 30% covered by ice at

• Sept. minimum. Proportion of ice to water has also

decreased, and ice has thinned

• U. Illinois/NASA

Each squiggly line shows 34 years of data for that month

winter maximum down 35% summer minimum down 75%

Feedbacks:

Melting ice decreases Arctic high air pressure, so warmer air comes in and melts more ice More heat is retained by water and air each year because there is less and thinner ice to melt and to reflect solar radiation The Arctic Ocean will soon be ice-free for much of the summer

Thawing-permafrost lakes, NW Canada. Trees topple as frozen mud melts. Melting releases methane

WH photo

South tip of Greenland

WH photo

Summer melting of Greenland ice sheet Red shows maximum area of summer surface melting (not area of disappearance of ice). Thinning and warming of outer part cause interior to flow faster into melt zone. Temperature change/melting is nonlinear

Satellite radar data

2012

Arctic smog, from Asian coal burning. Soot on snow and ice decreases reflectivity and increases melting (NW Alaska)

WH photo

Reflectivity of Greenland ice sheet was decreased by soot and dust, 2011 vs. 2000-2006 mean, by 5% in interior, and up to 15% in marginal melt zone

Ohio St. U./NASA

Greenland lost ~2000 km3 of ice 2002-2010

(Rodell et al., Bull. Am.

• Met. Soc. 2011)

INCREASING EXTREME WEATHER

Arctic high air pressure drives northern jet stream of mostly-eastward winds at top of troposphere along the main gradient between polar and temperate air. Broad waveforms of the boundary have historically migrated slowly W, whereas most deeply kinked “ridge” and “trough” waveforms (air-mass frontal systems) moved rapidly E. Air-pressure contrast and jetstream velocities decrease as Arctic warms more than midlatitudes, and both broad waveforms and frontal kinks increasingly stall. This increases extreme weather and changes regional patterns

Average velocity of northern jet stream has decreased 15% in last 15 years, and irregular and stalled jet and air masses have become much more common This is a major factor in the increase in extreme weather events accompanying AGW

Surface temp., Dec. 2013 vs. 1951-1980 ave., °C

(Hansen, 2014)

Departure of July 2012

• temp. from 1981-2010

July average (NOAA) +5°C

2012 was warmest ever recorded in US because jet stream stayed north and left U.S. under stagnant high air pressure

Northern jet stream, 1-7 July ‘12

England’s summer 2012 was wettest in 100 years

• 5

∆T °C 1975

(colors typical of pre-1980)

2010 2011

• J. Hansen et al., NASA, 2012

June-July-August surface temp. relative to 1951-1980 mean Prolonged high T has become much more common. Precipitation also changes; example, midcontinent U S drought

quakes, volcanos storms floods, slides hi temp, drought, forest fires

Extreme weather events are increasing in both number and severity Number of natural disasters, 1980-2011 1000 1980 2011

Munich Re, 2012

Nathan Weber photo

Tornado path near Peoria IL, 17 Nov. 2013.

North American jet stream was in slow-erratic AGW mode 9-14 Sept. 2013 (= N Colorado floods) daily maps, midnight MDT

9 10 11 12 13 14

24 hr rainfall ending 6 am local, 12 Sept Surface weather, 12 Sept. Stalled front produced upslope winds to mountains East side of northern Colo. Front Range got 10-20 inches of rain 9-14 Sept (mostly 11 & 12) 2013, with stalled weather pattern Height of 500 mbars, 12 Sept. Upper level Low, blocked by stalled Highs, pulled wet tropical Pacific air to north for 5 days

(Similar unique floods hit Vegas and Calgary earlier in summer)

TOTAL RAINFALL, 9-14 SEP. 2013 Orange-red-pink = 4 to 20 inches

W W Hay photo

South St. Vrain River above Lyons, 12 Sep 2013

2012 Hurricane Sandy was enlarged and brought onshore by AGW

NASA

23 Oct Sandy’s left turn was due to global warming Sandy grew going N because sea surface was 3 °C warmer than historic norm

6-hr positions

Tracks (red) of all Atlantic hurricanes close to U.S. east coast, 1900-2009

NOAA, 2010

E-moving air masses have kept hurricanes out to

• sea. Sandy was

blocked and turned by an AGW effect Sandy, 2012

Jet stream, 7 a.m. local, 29 Oct. 2012, 13 hrs before landfall. Velocity shown by color, direction by tiny arrows, altitude (~9 km) by 50 m contours.

High-P ridge, stalled for a week as AGW effect, blocked both Sandy and E-moving front in NW

Sandy

0 50 100 140 miles/hour

FRONT

+

NW-ward frontal jet stream in S + clockwise flow around stalled high in N pulled Sandy ashore

Hurricane storm surges (sea level is raised by low air pressure + push by

• nshore winds) are increasing with AGW

Sandy had lowest air pressure ever recorded N of South Carolina, and second-highest integrated area and strength of wind field for any landing U S hurricane

New Jersey coast

equator

Hurricanes require Coriolis force to develop winds, but are becoming more common close to equator with warming. Typhoon (hurricane) Bopha, Dec. 2012, hit southern Philippines with >160 mph winds, by far the strongest ever recorded there

Huge Typhoon Haiyan, possibly strongest ever recorded anywhere, followed in Nov. 2013 Bopha and Haiyan were augmented by warmed

• cean, and kept south of

all prior major hurricanes by unusual high air pressure to north

Haiyan had sustained winds to 195 mph, gusts to 235, just before landing with a 20-foot storm surge. Killed 6000 people, destroyed 550,000 homes.

Temperature, °C Density, grams/cm³

Ocean water is layered or graded by density, which produces subhorizontal currents Almost-fresh ice freezes from seawater at -2°C Density increases with salinity, decreases with temp.

Deep cold water leaves the Arctic Ocean mostly between Greenland and Norway

SHALLOW CURRENTS WARM COLD DEEP CURRENTS COLD

Warm shallow Gulf Stream is a response to cold deep outflow, which must now be decreasing, from the Arctic Ocean. The Gulf Stream makes Britain, Iceland, and Norway habitable

Colors show thickness (0 to 2.5 km) of -2 to +2°C cold bottom water. Depth to top (red numbers) increased ~100 m, 1980-2011. This warming is ~10% of total heat added to oceans in last 30 years How will increasing change affect Antarctic ice melting, and Atlantic circulation and climate? Purkey & Johnson, J. Climate, 2012

Aust. S.Am

Ant. Antarctic bottom water flows as far as Portugal

The floating and grounded ice that buttresses West Antarctic ice sheet is shrinking rapidly in thickness and area

sub-ice topography

What is the threshold for runaway outflow and melting

• f West Antarctic ice sheet?

Byrd +3°C

420,000 years ago Interior Antarctic record ~1950

Tropical corals show that sea level during this interglacial peaked 8 m above present level, so there was then only half as much ice in West Antarctica and Greenland as now (Dutton & Lambeck, Science 2012) Maximum CO2 then, and at any other time in last 420,000 yrs, was 300 ppm, but CO2 is now 400 and climbing fast

East Antarctic summers are warming but still cold, and most ice is still stable

WH photo

The other CO2 crisis: acidification of oceans by the 55% of anthropogenic CO2 that goes into them will have huge effect on biota CO2 ionizes with water Mostly: CO2 + H2O ↔ H+ + HCO3

• The amount of H+ defines acidity (and pH)

A very small part reacts further:

H+ + HCO3

• ↔ 2H+ + CO3

2-

Only the carbonate ion (CO3

2-) can combine

with Ca2+ ions (from erosion of land) to make solid CaCO3 for limestone and shells, precipitation of which will, over thousands of years, slowly remove excess CO2 Increasing CO2 increases H+, which dissolves existing CaCO3 and inhibits precipitation of more by organisms The total CO2 addition has increased average acidity ~30% in the top 2000 feet of the oceans

Byrne et al., GRL 2010

North Pacific pH traverse, 1991 and 2006, top 1000 m of ocean pH 8 7 1000 south 2006 pH north pH change, 1991-2006 0.08

A great many marine organisms have CaCO3 shells or frameworks, precipitated by combining CO3

2- with Ca2+. Converting HCO3

• to CO3

2- to

make CaCO3 requires more chemical energy as H+ increases. 1/3 of all coral reefs have already been killed by their inability to provide the extra energy

Larval invertebrates must begin shell formation immediately after hatching, and now die in some large regions and times when they run out of egg material to supply additional needed chemical energy Broad die-offs will be devastating within15 or 20 years in high-latitude shallow water and in cool coastal upwellings, including that along western U S, and later will affect the entire oceanic food chain

Floating microscopic plants are the base

• f the oceanic food chain, and produce

about as much O2 as do land plants. Increasing acidity decreases fixation of the nitrogen they need. They are already depleted in some ocean areas

The “climate debate” by the secretly funded anti-science industry has no valid science content

Heartland Institute Science and Public Policy Institute American Legislative Exchange Council Most of their many publications are free

• n their websites.

Heartland megabillboard

• n I-90 in Chicago, 2012

Scientists and gov’t. agencies falsify climate data to subvert free enterprise (SPPI, 2011) Subtitle: “How the regulatory class is using bogus claims about climate change to entrench and extend their economic privilege and political control” (SPPI, 2012)

Dishonest scientists and governments waste tax money on alternative- energy research instead

• f deregulating production

and combustion of beneficial carbon fuels

(Heartland book, 2012)

(SPPI, 2011)

The Environmental Protection Agency must be abolished because its regulation of the fuel and energy industries (which cause neither pollution nor climate change) wastes everyone’s money (2012) The American Legislative Exchange Council writes the pro- industry and anti- environmental and anti-science legislation that is passed by many state legislatures

The American Association of Petroleum Geologists gave its 2006 Journalism Award to Michael Crichton for his sci-fi novel “State of Fear,” wherein scientists and environmentalists conspire to induce mass-murder “natural” disasters that will frighten people to accept the global-warming hoax and then to destroy capitalism

“Despite the shock and horror professed by global climate mandarins, Japan . . . is striking a smarter balance between the uncertainty of global-warming predictions and current economic reality” WSJ, 21 Nov. 2013, the day after Japan announced that it would do nothing to reduce CO2 emissions:

Efforts to address climate change should focus on engineering to adapt to shifting weather patterns and rising sea levels, not

• n cutting use of fossil fuels

Rex Tillerson, CEO, President, and Chairman

• f ExxonMobil, press conference 27 June 2012

Likely little will be done to curb CO2 release, and carbon fuels will be used until the energy cost of producing them becomes prohibitive NOW

West Virginia coal Wyoming coal Alberta “tar” sands

Sacrifice source regions will much enlarge (pics via Google)

Our global experiment has quickly brought us here. What is coming?

• atmos. data

History of oceans for last 65 m.y.

• R. Norris et al., Science, 2013

We know a great deal about past CO2 , temp., etc. Now 65 m.y.

In ~25% of last half-billion years, Earth has had CO2 <300 ppm and ice at both poles, and the large ∆T to tropics has driven climates broadly similar to present plus ice ages About 70% of time, CO2 >400 or 500 ppm, no ice, small ∆T, far warmer at all latitudes, much higher sea levels, low oxygen and low productivity of oceans About 5% of time, CO2 >800 ppm, global hothouse

(W. W. Hay, 2013)

Plate tectonics has moved Australia + New Zealand rapidly north, widening ocean south to Antarctica. By ~35 m.y. ago. Increasing circumglobal Southern Ocean circulation allowed glaciation of Antarctica, and freezing of Arctic Ocean, to begin

Alternating continental glaciations and interglacials

• f Canada etc. began only ~2 million years ago

Reason?—jamming of island arcs and continental fragments between converging Australia and Asia blocked circulation between tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and cooled the latter

Changes for each CO2 increment, past and future, are not pay-as-you-go, but will increase for many

• centuries. An Arctic Ocean ice-free for much of

summer, and increasing extreme and chaotic weather, are “in the bank” for the near term

A reasonable projection for effects of the 400 ppm of CO2 already in the atmosphere is for melting of most West Antarctic and Greenland ice over the next 500+ years, a sea-level rise of >30 feet, and major warming and detrimental climate change But manmade CO2 is likely to increase to ~600 ppm as a result of carbon-fuel use before fuels run out later in this century, with much greater long-term effects

Well-written book with easy to understand AGW science, with much about

• ceans as well as climate,

and a geologic emphasis

• n changes through time

(2013)

Greg Wray

ExxonMobil’s “Outlook for Energy to 2040” released Dec. 2013: “Our strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is focused on increasing energy efficiency in the short term, implementing proven emission-reducing technologies in the near and medium term, and developing breakthrough, game-changing technologies for the long term” [Decreasing the rate of increase of CO2, but not its total amount, will have no effect

• n long-term changes.

But Exxon may form a study committee]

Tracks (red) of all Atlantic hurricanes close to U.S. east coast, 1900-2009

NOAA, 2010

E-moving air masses have kept hurricanes out to

• sea. AGW-stalled

high blocked and turned Sandy Sandy, 2012

All tropical storms 2000-2012, + Sandy

Each squiggly line shows 34 years of data for that month. All months show decreases, most at increasing rates

Blue: area with >15% ice cover Red: area of actual ice

How to lie with statistics: connect Niño up-blip to Niña down-blip, ignore the 98% of added heat that went elsewhere, and say “Earth has been cooling since 1998 and there is no greenhouse effect”

(dates are aligned)

• ceans

Heat added to air = 1/3

• f brown (which is total

air + land + ice)

(U Wash/NASA)

Science deniers ignore the great Arctic changes

down ~75% in 34 years threshold (global tipping point) was crossed in 1990s?

Ultimate changes will increase with ultimate release of CO2 , which however may be less than predicted from exaggerated reserve claims, especially by all OPEC nations. World production of conventional oil peaked in 2005. Almost all exporting countries have individually peaked. Total U.S. production is 60% of 1970 peak, and its conventional oil is falling steadily. Economic “tar” sands and oil shales are limited. World coal may be mostly gone in ~50 years

A new industry campaign claims that shale oil and gas will make U.S. self-sufficient for a century if restrictions are eliminated on fracking, water use, pollution, transport, and export REALITY CHECK: Production from fracked wells declines rapidly--down ~60-70% in first year in oil shale, ~35-50% in gas shale--and most parts of the shales are money-losers. Wells go 1-2 miles horizontally in thin pay beds, and must be parallel and widely separated Production can increase only as long as drilling in “sweet spots” is increasing and big $$ losses are accepted, and will then crater

Anthropogenic N2O comes from fertilizers, combustion, and other sources Chlorofluorocarbons are banned worldwide, and N2O is now the major destroyer of the stratospheric ozone (O3) that absorbs short- wave ultraviolet rays from the Sun, which are potentially lethal to surface life

420,000 years ago Interior Antarctic record NOW

Glacial megacycles probably were initiated by

• rbital-forced chilling of Antarctic deep water

(Elderfield et al., Science, 2012) CO2 is the regulator

Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures, last 11,000 years, from sediments Latitude 30 to 75 South 30 to 60 North entire Pacific

Temperatures relative to 1850-1880 = 0 Note rapid recent warming (right edge, arrows), and north-south contrast between mostly-land and mostly-ocean midlatitudes Rosenthal et al., Science 2013 thousands of years ago

Shrubs replace tundra as permafrost melts NW Siberia

Alders are the first shrubs

• n thawed ground

NOAA

1966 2009

Circum-Arctic land also is warming rapidly

• R. Braithwaite photo

Increasing meltwater lubricates base

• f ice, increasing

flow rate and melting Greenland lost ~2000 km3 of ice 2002-2010

(Rodell et al., Bull. Am.

• Met. Soc. 2011)

North Pacific pH, 2006, along line run previously in 1991

Hawaii SW Alaska ΔpH 1991-2006

1 km

ΔpH Depth, km 1 1

8.0 7.5 7.0

Byrne et al., GRL 2010 6

• 0.08

pH Same location as top panel

ΔpH 1991-2006

1 km

ΔpH

• 0.08

This difference records only ~25% of total human-added CO2 The total CO2 addition has increased average acidity ~30% in the top 2000 feet of the oceans

2013 Heartland book, sent to most U.S. physical-science faculty members, urging them to teach the deniers’ side The usual distortions and lies presented in calm pseudo-academic style, in contrast to the paranoia aimed at politicians and the public by many of the same authors

The energy industry and its fronts buy legislation by contributing to science-denying politicians; as, an average of $750,000 each to 2012 Senate candidates

Natural gas is now cheap in the U.S. because it is temporarily overproduced. Ethanol is an energy-negative food-wasting subsidy for

• agribusiness. Nuclear power is dangerous

and barely economic. Most hydropower sites are already on line. Wind and solar plants could supply only a small part of needs. Rooftop solar may be most promising?

Our great 1950-1990 economic boom was based on cheap energy and rapid population increase, neither of which can be repeated. There are few economic or political plans for the new reality

(U.S. population has tripled in 90 years)

All popular economic policies presume rapid growth, which can not be sustained has tripled in 70 years

Both food-exporting countries and the many countries that cannot now feed themselves have decreasing water, land, and resources. Global warming and extreme weather worsen problems

Enormous Haiyan had sustained winds to 195 mph, gusts to 235, just before landing with a 20-foot storm surge. Killed 6000 people, destroyed 550,000 homes.

500 km

Making analogies is complicated because feedbacks and thresholds, changing configurations of continents and oceans, and lack of ancient analogues for current warm Arctic and cold Antarctic also are critical

Nathan Weber photo

Tornado path near Peoria IL, 17 Nov. 2013.

~15 almost-unique late-fall tornadoes hit the Midwest as cold front met unseasonably warm wet air from Gulf of Mexico

Largest upper-ocean heat increases accompany the recent >50 km shift S, by AGW, of the Antarctic Convergence, where lessening cold polar water sinks N under warmer water Recent heat gain/loss by shallow ocean

The other CO2 crisis: acidification of oceans by the 55% of anthropogenic CO2 that goes into them will have huge effect on biota CO2 combines with water Mostly: CO2 + H2O ↔ H+ + HCO3

• The amount of H+ defines acidity (and pH)

Increasing temperature expels CO2 to air. Decreasing temp. or increasing pressure (depth) moves reaction to right

A very small part reacts further:

H+ + HCO3

• ↔ 2H+ + CO3

2-

Increasing CO2 moves reaction to left and decreases carbonate ions

Warm air and a low-pressure air mass filled the Arctic in late summer 2012

Siberia

NASA

Alaska Greenland

W W Hay slide