AND PLANNING FOR GROWTH Kimberly H. Robinson Truckee Meadows - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS REGION AND PLANNING FOR GROWTH Kimberly H. Robinson Truckee Meadows Regional Planning Agency December 8 th , 2014

Growth Projections  We produce a Consensus Forecast every 2 years  The Consensus Forecast evaluates population and employment growth over a 20-year planning horizon  Users:  RTC  TMRPA  WRWC  Reno  RTAA  Sparks  WCSD  Washoe County

How Much Are We Growing? Around 81,000 Around 127,000 additional jobs in 2034 additional people in 2034 257,759 126,982 436,797 81,547 29% Increase 31% Increase

How Are These Numbers Used?  RTC Travel Demand Model  The Consensus Forecast projections are spatially allocated to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) in order to predict future traffic volumes across our region

Demographic Change

Consensus Forecast Age Group Distribution 6% 6% 14% Preschool (Ages 0-4) 18% 19% 19% School (Ages 5-19) Working (Ages 20-64) 60% 56% Retired (Ages 65 and older) 2014 2034

65+ Detail All People Ages 65+ Only People Ages 80+ 120000 35000 103,209 29,865 30000 100000 25000 80000 62,201 20000 60000 13,336 15000 40000 10000 20000 5000 0 0 2014 2034 2014 2034 +41,008 (66% increase) +16,529 (124% increase)

Regional Population 150,000 137,035 130,000 112,222 110,000 99,616 90,000 70,000 56,822 50,000 39,649 30,000 Boomlets Millenials Generation Baby Mature (<10) (10-32) X (33-49) Boomers Generation (50-68) (69-89)

Approved Future Housing Units 9,005 Tentative Map Units 54,377 Planned Development Units c. 4,500 Additional Subdivided Units 64,000 Total Approved Future Units

Approved Future Housing Units: Percent by Jurisdiction 9% Washoe County 28% 63% Sparks Reno

Tesla Report - GOED Direct Indirect Induced Year Total Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs 2015 700 841 905 2,446 2016 1,700 2,044 2,197 5,941 2017 4,700 5,650 6,075 16,425 2018 6,500 7,814 8,402 22,715

Residents In Washoe County  6,500 workers * 54.5% workers in Washoe County * 50% existing residents = 1,771 new workers * 2.56 pph = 4,534 new residents in Washoe County by 2018  6,500 workers * 75% workers in Washoe County * 50% existing residents = 2,438 new workers * 2.56 pph = 6,241 new residents in Washoe County by 2018

Projected Population Growth 2015 – 2018 Growth = 23,993 residents 5,783 6,138 2015 2016 2017 2018 5,947 6,125

Final Thoughts  Predicting the future is difficult but necessary, and requires periodic reassessment  New Consensus Forecast every two years  Potential residential lands study  Tracking approved future units  Enhanced economic development report with EDAWN  Collaboration, information and assessment are the key to successfully preparing for the future