and Innovation Policy Timothy M. Persons, Ph.D. Chief Scientist - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
GAOs Science and Technology Portfolio and Its Implications for R&D and Innovation Policy Timothy M. Persons, Ph.D. Chief Scientist U.S. Government Accountability Office personst@gao.gov @GAOChfScientist www.gao.gov blog.gao.gov
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personst@gao.gov @GAOChfScientist www.gao.gov blog.gao.gov www.linkedin.com/pub/timothy-persons/9/856/9ba/
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accountants, to a wide range of experts in STEM)
1921 1970 2002 2004
Oversee financial management processes of the Executive Branch Provide oversight
performance & broader government-wide issues
Tech Assessment capability within the Legislative Branch GAO established
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NAS NRC
1863 … 1916 … 1921 … 1964 1967 1969 1970 1972 1974 1995 2002 2007
GAO NAE OTA
Not to scale
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RESULTS
Biometric technologies could be used to secure nation’s border (associating a person with travel documents such as visas or passports) but have limitations Costs of using facial, fingerprint and iris recognition would be between $1.3-2.9 billion initially & between $0.7-1.5 billion annually thereafter Important policy implications include privacy & international relations
IMPACT
Testimony on use of biometrics in security before three Congressional committees Information used to inform Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004
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RESULTS
Cybersecurity technologies are not being purchased or implemented to the fullest extent Long-term efforts are needed, such as development
vulnerabilities and technological solutions, and the transition of research results into commercially available products The federal government can play an important role in increasing use of such technologies
IMPACT
Primer report used by interested members of congress to come up to speed on cyber issues
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RESULTS
Emerging technologies, such as fire behavior modeling and automated fire detection systems, could prove useful in the future to protect communities from wildland fires New communications technologies could aid interoperability but better coordination is needed between federal, state and local agencies
IMPACT
Testimony provided on technologies to protect structures and improve communications during wildland fires
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RESULTS
CBP study demonstrated that existing container seals provided inadequate security against physical intrusions. For example, seals installed on container doors can be bypassed by simply removing an entire container door Thus, CBP desired a technology with the ability to detect door openings and eventually detect and report intrusions
IMPACT
Law now requires DHS standards and procedures for securing cargo and monitoring security while in transit
Reference: GAO-10-887
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RESULTS
Explosives detection technologies show promise but have potential limitations in the rail environment. Considerations include screening throughput, mobility, and durability, and physical space limitations. Federal agencies and rail operators are likely to be confronted with cost, potential privacy and legal implications of using these technologies.
IMPACT
Support to recent testimony concerning TSA risk management of passenger rail systems Informing debate on nature and extent of passenger rail security
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RESULTS Climate engineering technologies do not now offer a viable response to global climate change, yet many experts advocate accountable R&D as an insurance policy against worst case climate change scenarios. R&D efforts will also require improvements to computational infrastructure, climate models, and data. Although a majority of U.S. adults were not initially familiar with climate engineering, they were nevertheless open to accountable R&D activities. IMPACT Informing debate on implications of various hypothesized approaches to engineer the global climate system Complementary report to GAO-10-903 – Climate Change: A Coordinated Strategy Could Focus Federal Geoengineering Research and Inform Governance Efforts
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RESULTS Science facilities and federal agencies see three promising alternative neutron detector technologies: boron-10 lined proportional detectors, boron trifluoride gas proportional detectors, and lithium-6 scintillators, each with a TRL ranging from 5 to 7. A boron-10 lined proportional detector may be available for domestic radiation portal monitor deployments in early fiscal year 2012. Federal agencies are funding more than 30 research and development projects that may result in additional alternative neutron detector technologies. IMPACT Requesters utilized report as technology scorecard for multi-agency R&D efforts Complementary report to GAO-11-472 – Managing Critical Isotopes: Weaknesses in DOE's Management of Helium-3 Delayed the Federal Response to a Critical Supply Shortage
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Source: ITRS
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Source: GAO-11-71
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Source: NCI
Source: TRB
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THE BRONZE AGE 3000-1000 BC THE IRON AGE 1000 BC and forward THE STONE AGE Up to 4000 BC
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Source: Rising to the Challenge: U.S. Innovation Policy for Global Economy; Charles W. Wessner and Alan Wm. Wolff, Editors; Committee on Comparative National Innovation Policies: Best Practice for the 21st Century; Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy; Policy and Global Affairs; National Research Council, 2012
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Note: Amount shown for FY 2009 includes funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.
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Note: This bar chart uses shading to characterize the uncertain levels of investment, based on key participants’ opinions and available projections of public investments for 2013. Specifically, the lighter the color of a bar, the greater the uncertainty associated with the projection. Use of fading on the upper portion of bars is also intended to convey the uncertainty associated with these projections. Our intent is to avoid conveying an unwarranted level of precision, which might be associated with a specific data point for each nation. Finally, we note that this graphic shows indicators of public investments but excludes estimates of private-sector investments because of the greater uncertainty that key participants associated with them.
aPublic investments shown for the United States include both state investments (projection) and the federal investment represented by the 2013 budget (continuing resolution) for the
National Nanotechnology Initiative or NNI. The NNI focuses primarily on R&D. Amounts spent by NNI agencies and departments may vary from budget figures because of factors such as sequestration.
bThe projected public investment for Germany does not include its contribution to the European Commission’s effort in nanotechnology R&D.
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Stage 1: Evolving nano-scale materials, components/ devices Stage 2: Nano-enabled products or intermediates Stage 3: Improved, nano-enhanced
Nano-transistors further improved semiconductor chips ever-faster computers, smaller smart phones Copper nano-wires 3D lithium-ion batteries more powerful battery- powered vehicles Carbon nanotubes concrete additives that conduct electricity road pavement with remote sensing Protein nanoparticles carriers of chemo- therapeutic drugs chemotherapy targeted to cancer cells (only)
Bottom Line: Nanoscale S&T will be the basis upon which the competition will engage moving forward (time/space compression and performance extension)
limited technology transfer at U.S. universities
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Page 27 Approach Actions Rationale
innovation across the economy Continue or update federal policies and programs that help strengthen innovation generally (i.e., across all sectors of the economy). Government acts to supply goods and services critical to innovation when private markets fail to do so, most
providing them. Beyond these measures, firms are in a better position than government to make decisions about how to allocate resources to the most promising innovations.
innovation in manufacturing Establish centers, encourage clusters, or design programs to address the Missing Middle, especially as applied to manufacturing, with financial support coming from public- private partnerships. The U.S. needs a strong manufacturing base because it is essential to the economy and to innovation itself. Moreover, structures separating manufacturing from design can have significant adverse results. Assuring this base means “leveling the playing field” in the global economy—by directly addressing the Missing Middle.
grand strategy for nano- manufacturing Define a vision for U.S.
“grand strategy” (based on a systems approach) for achieving the vision—through a collaborative process that might be led by the federal government. Nanomanufacturing is a megatrend: Nano- manufacturing will heavily impact future U.S. competitiveness in global markets as well as provide societal benefits. Nanomanufacturing may be a future general purpose technology and be classified as a public good, which could potentially benefit the entire economy and justify federal support. Moreover, nanomanufacturing may become an engine of jobs creation as its disruptive innovations proliferate throughout the U.S. economy.
Source: GAO analysis of forum information.
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2011-12 academic year, while degrees awarded in non-STEM fields increased 37 percent.
and non-STEM jobs remained fairly steady. The trends in STEM degrees and jobs varied across STEM fields.
demand.
postsecondary STEM education programs indicated that they considered workforce needs in execution of funds
agencies better incorporate STEM education outcomes into their performance plans and reports.
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GAO Findings on Major Weapon Programs GAO Best Practices Guides Over the past year, the overall size of DOD’s MDAP portfolio decreased from 85 to 80, while the estimated cost has increased by $14.1 billion. GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide (GAO-09-3SP) The average time to deliver initial capability to the warfighter increased by 2 months. While improvements have been made, some programs have performed poorly,
GAO Schedule Assessment Guide (GAO-12-120G) Most programs carry technology risks into system development that contribute to these poor cost and schedule outcomes GAO Technology Readiness Assessment Guide (in development)
GAO TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT GUIDE (IN PROCESS)
Chapter 1: What is a Technology Readiness Assessment? Chapter 2: Why TRAs are Important and the Challenges in Applying Them Chapter 3: A Reliable Process for Conducting Credible TRAs Chapter 4: Best Practice – Understanding Technology and Program Requirements Chapter 5: Best Practice – Designing a TRA Strategy or Plan and Assembling the TRA Team Chapter 6: Best Practice – Selecting Critical Technologies Chapter 7: Best Practice – Evaluating Critical Technologies Chapter 8: Best Practice – Documenting Key Information and Results Chapter 9: Best Practice – Building Knowledge Iteratively for Use in Program Management and Governance Decisions Chapter 10: Using the Information and Results to Identify Potential Risks and Concerns Chapter 11: Ongoing Issues in Conducting Technology Readiness Assessments
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PRELIMINARY PRELIMINARY
Stable Supply, GAO-13-716: Oct 17, 2013.
Portal Monitor Program Could Help Future Acquisitions. GAO-13-256: Jun 11, 2013.
Improve the Reliability of Reported Cost and Schedule Information, GAO-13-401: Apr 17, 2013.
and Analysis, GAO-12-488: Sep 11, 2012.
Challenges and Management Weaknesses at the National Ignition Facility, GAO- 10-488: Apr 8, 2010.
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Current
(PEDv)
Projected
Potential (among others)
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