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An Update on Ovintiv September 2020
An Update on Ovintiv September 2020 1 Ratings Action The Company - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
An Update on Ovintiv September 2020 1 Ratings Action The Company issued the following statement in conjunction with its Fitch downgrade announced on September 18, 2020. Fitch Website This was done in conjunction with their review of commodity
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An Update on Ovintiv September 2020
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The Company issued the following statement in conjunction with its Fitch downgrade announced on September 18, 2020. Fitch Website This was done in conjunction with their review of commodity prices and we were not immune to their
Our $4 billion credit facilities are in place until July 2024 and access is unchanged. There is no impact on their size, term or
interest expense, nor will it trigger any significant requests for collateral or uses of liquidity. As you know, our forward plan is laser-focused on reducing debt over the next six quarters and our liquidity is a valuable asset. Many of our peers today are non-investment grade rated companies. As a BBB-rated company with a negative outlook, Ovintiv was somewhat of a hybrid between IG and HY. In some recent instances, we have seen companies have negative
We are confident in our ability to execute on our 2020 and 2021 scenarios. All free cash for the next six quarters will be allocated to debt reduction.
Advisory Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: This communication contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning
downgrade in the company’s credit rating. Readers are cautioned against unduly relying on forward-looking statements which, by their nature, involve numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties that may cause such statements not to occur or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied.
Ratings Action
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High confidence in ’20 & ’21 scenarios, cash cost savings on track 4Q20 avg oil and C5+ raised to 200 Mbbls/d (previously exit rate) ‘20 capex of $1.8B now at low-end of previous range Tripled passive ownership in OVV since change in domicile Excess cash flows goes to debt reduction over the next six quarters
2Q20 Key Takeaways
Note: All references to capital investment and oil and condensate production scenarios do not represent formal guidance4
Previous Current Oil & C5+
(Mbbls/d)
200
exit
200
4Q20
Capex
($B)
$1.8 - $1.9 $1.8
2Q Results Enhance “Next Six Quarters”
High Operational Confidence:
High Financial Confidence:
Unhedged FY21 Price Sensitivities:
‘21 FCFŦ Positive
Post dividend at $35 / $2.75
~200 Mbbls/d
Avg 2021 Oil & C5+
$1.4 – $1.6B
2021 capex scenario; 20% capital efficiency gain vs ‘19
2021 “Stay- Flat” Scenario
Note: Declaration and payment of future dividends subject to Board discretion Ŧ Non-GAAP measures defined in advisories. For additional information regarding non-GAAP measures see the Company’s website and disclosure in the appendix of this document2020 Scenario
“Next Six Quarters” excess cash flows goes to debt reduction
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Priorities for “The Next Six Quarters”
E F F E C T I V E L Y M A N A G I N G V O L A T I L I T Y
Maintaining Financial Strength/Reducing Debt Maintaining Scale Protecting health & safety of our people Leading cost structure and capital efficiency
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Strong 2Q20 Operating Performance
B U I L D I N G C O N F I D E N C E I N T H E F U T U R E Proven Capital Discipline
2Q20 Capex ($ MM)
Solid execution in unprecedented period of macro volatility
Capital efficiencies evident: 2Q capex at low end of guidance / FY20 capex reduced
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2Q20 Capex Guidance $250 (Low End) $300 (High End) $252 Actual
Dynamic Production Management
Mboepd Oil & C5+
Equivalent MBOE/d Oil & Condensate Mbbls/d 2Q20 Production 32 Shut-in 18 Shut-in 569 216 537 Actual 198 Actual
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2Q20 - Effectively Managing Volatility
D E M O N S T R A T E D F L E X I B I L I T Y
Cash Flow Ŧ $304 MM
$1.17 / share
Liquidity $3.0B1
Investment Grade
Note 1: Refer to Slide Notes Ŧ Non-GAAP measures defined in advisories. For additional information regarding non-GAAP measures see the Company’s website and disclosure in the appendix of this documentTotal Costs Ŧ $11.23 / BOE
(8%) vs. 1Q20
>$200 MM Savings Achieved ~50% of cash cost savings YTD Operated Rigs 1Q20
x23
2Q20
x07
Delivered Free Cash Flow Ŧ Challenging Macro @ $28 WTI
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FY20 now on track for $1.8B capex
200 Mbbls/d oil and condensate now 4Q20 average
140 160 180 200 220 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21
Flexibility Continues in 2H20
2H20 Demonstrates Business Resiliency
4Q20
Workforce Balanced with Future Plans
Oil & C5+ Production (Mbbls/d)
215 198 200
Flat ‘21 oil and condensate
2H20 Game Plan Sets Up Optimal 2021 Scenario
Confidence in ‘20 & ‘21 scenarios bolstered by 2Q results 2H20: Resumption of completions
200
Align business with activity
Confidence in 2021 scenario
Workforce efficiencies
condensate production up >6x
2Q20 workforce reduction increases expected margin and cash flow
2021 ~180
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>$200 MM of Cash Cost Savings in 2020
2020: >$200 MM of expected cash cost savings
price-driven production tax reductions
2021: Legacy costs drop $100 MM+
M U L T I - Y E A R R E S I L I E N C Y
$0 $100 $200 $300 2020 2021
Cash Cost Savings ($ MM)
Combination improves 2021 cash outlook by $300 MM
Durable Cash Cost Savings Legacy Cost Savings >$200 $300
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Core 3 Assets demonstrating capital efficiency gains
D R I V I N G C A P I T A L E F F I C I E N C Y
Track Record of Efficiency Improvements
Pacesetter
D&C ($ M) / 1,000 ft2
2Q20 D&C rates building on efficiencies established in 1Q20 1Q20 NEW Play D&C DC&E1 D&C DC&E1
Permian $5.6 $6.2 $5.3 $5.8 STACK $5.0 $5.4 $5.0 $5.4 Montney $3.5 $3.7 $3.4 $3.5
Go Forward Well Costs ($ MM)
$680 $640 $500 $640 $540 $490 $550 $520 $500 $530 $500 $450
Permian STACK Montney
FY19 1Q20 2Q20 Go Forward FY19 1Q20 2Q20 Go Forward FY19 1Q20 2Q20 Go Forward Previously $560 Same as 1Q20 Previously $470
1 2 31Q Actual 2Q Actual Next Six Quarters Capital Efficiency
9% 15% 20%
Note 1, 2: Refer to Slide Notes$300
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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2018 2019 1H20
Permian STACK Montney
Anadarko
Capital Efficiency More Important Than Ever
Permian
completion rates and $350k $400k savings per well
Montney
record of 3,450 ft / day
W O R L D C L A S S O P E R A T O R Completions – Lateral Length (ft) / day Drilling – Total Well (ft) / day1
1,000 1,500 2,000 2018 2019 1H20
Total Company
design and multi-basin knowledge transfer
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OVV: Well Positioned vs Industry Narratives
“Stay-flat” capital efficiencies
’21 scenario: 200 Mbbls/d oil & C5+ for $1.4 - $1.6B
Optionality through legacy gas production Minimal Federal acreage exposure
<1% exposure in Core 3 assets
Capital efficiency through innovation
Proven track record of safely reducing costs
Scale provides stability thru-cycle Multi-year track record of returning cash
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Defining the Successful E&P of the Future
Quality Multi-Basin Portfolio Financial Strength and Risk Management Industry Leading Efficiency Driven by Innovation Size & Scale as One of The Largest Oil & Condensate Producers Unique Combination of Capital Discipline & Flexibility A Culture That Values Being One, Agile & Driven Proven Team of Talented & Committed Professionals
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Future Oriented Information
savings and sustainability thereof
market diversification strategy and physical sales locations
expected timeframes and potential upside
times, well costs, commodity composition and performance against type curves and versus peers
including flexibility of commercial arrangements
debt reduction and expected net debt
FLS involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties that may cause such statements not to occur or results to differ materially. These assumptions include: future commodity prices and differentials; assumptions as specified herein; data contained in key modeling statistics; availability of attractive hedges and enforceability of risk management program; assumed tax, royalty and regulatory regimes; and expectations and projections made in light of the Company’s historical experience. Risks and uncertainties include: suspension of or changes to guidance, and associated impact to production; ability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet obligations; commodity price volatility and impact to the Company’s stock price and cash flows; ability to secure adequate transportation and potential curtailments of refinery operations, including resulting storage constraints or widening price differentials; discretion to declare and pay dividends, if any; business interruption, property and casualty losses or unexpected technical difficulties; impact of COVID-19 to the Company’s operations, including maintaining ordinary staffing levels, securing operational inputs, executing on portions of its business and cyber-security risks associated with remote work; counterparty and credit risk; impact of changes in credit rating and access to liquidity, including costs thereof; risks in marketing operations; risks associated with technology; risks associated with lawsuits and regulatory actions, including disputes with partners; risks associated with decommissioning activities, including timing and costs thereof; ability to acquire or find additional reserves; imprecision of reserves estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities; and other risks and uncertainties, as described in the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and as described from time to time in its other periodic filings as filed
as of the date hereof and, except as required by law, the Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any FLS. Certain future oriented financial information or financial outlook information is included in this presentation to communicate current expectations as to Ovintiv’s performance. Readers are cautioned that it may not be appropriate for other purposes. Rates of return for a particular asset or well are on a before-tax basis and are based on specified commodity prices with local pricing offsets, capital costs associated with drilling, completing and equipping a well, field operating expenses and certain type curve assumptions. Pacesetter well costs for a particular asset are a composite of the best drilling performance and best completions performance wells in the current quarter in such asset and are presented for comparison purposes. Drilling and completions costs have been normalized as specified in this presentation based on certain lateral lengths for a particular asset. For convenience, references in this presentation to “Ovintiv”, “OVV”, the “Company”, “we”, “us” and “our” may, where applicable, refer only to or include any relevant direct and indirect subsidiary corporations and partnerships (“Subsidiaries”) of Ovintiv Inc., and the assets, activities and initiatives of such Subsidiaries. This presentation contains forward-looking statements or information (collectively, “FLS”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation, including Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. FLS include:
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Advisory Regarding Oil & Gas Information
All reserves estimates in this presentation are effective as of December 31, 2019, prepared by qualified reserves evaluators in accordance with procedures and standards contained in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation ("COGE") Handbook, National Instrument 51-101 (NI 51-101) and SEC regulations, as applicable. Detailed Canadian and U.S. protocol disclosure will be contained in the Form 51-101F1 and Annual Report on Form 10- K, respectively. Information on the forecast prices and costs used in preparing the Canadian protocol estimates are contained in the Form 51-101F1. For additional information relating to risks associated with the estimates of reserves, see "Item 1A. Risk Factors" of the Annual Report on Form 10-K. Reserves are the estimated remaining quantities of oil and natural gas and related substances anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, from a given date forward, based on: analysis of drilling, geological, geophysical and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally accepted as being reasonable. Proved reserves are those reserves which can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves. Ovintiv uses the terms play and resource play. Play encompasses resource plays, geological formations and conventional plays. Resource play describes an accumulation of hydrocarbons known to exist over a large areal expanse and/or thick vertical section, which when compared to a conventional play, typically has a lower geological and/or commercial development risk and lower average decline rate. Ovintiv has provided information with respect to its assets which are “analogous information” as defined in NI 51-101, including production type curves. This analogous information is presented on a basin, sub-basin or area basis utilizing data derived from Ovintiv's internal sources, as well as from a variety of publicly available information sources which are predominantly independent in nature. Production type curves are based on a methodology of analog, empirical and theoretical assessments and workflow with consideration of the specific asset, and as depicted in this presentation, is representative of Ovintiv’s current program, including relative to current performance, but are not necessarily indicative of ultimate recovery. Some of this data may not have been prepared by qualified reserves evaluators, may have been prepared based on internal estimates, and the preparation of any estimates may not be in strict accordance with COGEH. Estimates by engineering and geo-technical practitioners may vary and the differences may be significant. Ovintiv believes that the provision
the date hereof unless otherwise specified. Estimates of Ovintiv potential gross inventory locations, including premium return well inventory, include proved undeveloped reserves, probable undeveloped reserves, un- risked 2C contingent resources and unbooked inventory locations. As of December 31, 2019, on a proforma basis, 2,184 proved undeveloped locations, 2,671 probable undeveloped locations and 4,292 un-risked 2C contingent resource locations (in the development pending, development on-hold or development unclarified project maturity sub-classes) have been categorized as either reserves or contingent resources. Unbooked locations have not been classified as either reserves or resources and are internal estimates that have been identified by management as an estimation of Ovintiv's multi-year potential drilling activities based on evaluation of applicable geologic, seismic, engineering, production, resource and acreage information. There is no certainty that Ovintiv will drill all unbooked locations and if drilled there is no certainty that such locations will result in additional oil and gas reserves, resources or production. The locations on which Ovintiv will actually drill wells, including the number and timing thereof is ultimately dependent upon the availability of capital, regulatory and partner approvals, seasonal restrictions, equipment and personnel, oil and natural gas prices, costs, actual drilling results, additional reservoir information that is obtained, production rate recovery, transportation constraints and other factors. While certain of the unbooked locations may have been de-risked by drilling existing wells in relative close proximity to such locations, many of
such locations and if drilled there is more uncertainty that such wells will result in additional proved or probable reserves, resources or production. 30-day IP and other short-term rates are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery. The conversion of natural gas volumes to barrels of oil equivalent (“BOE”) is on the basis of six thousand cubic feet to one barrel. BOE is based on a generic energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent economic value equivalency at the wellhead. Readers are cautioned that BOE may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation.
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Non-GAAP Measures
Certain measures in this presentation do not have any standardized meaning as prescribed by U.S. GAAP and, therefore, are considered non-GAAP measures. These measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. These measures have been provided for meaningful comparisons between current results and other periods and should not be viewed as a substitute for measures reported under U.S. GAAP. For additional information regarding non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations, see the Company’s website and Ovintiv’s most recent Annual Report as filed on SEDAR and EDGAR. This presentation contains references to non-GAAP measures as follows:
as cash from (used in) operating activities excluding net change in other assets and liabilities, net change in non-cash working capital and current tax on sale of assets. Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow (or Free Cash Flow) is Non-GAAP Cash Flow in excess of capital expenditures, excluding net acquisitions and
measure of operating and financial performance across periods and against other companies in the industry, and are an indication of the company’s ability to generate cash to finance capital programs, to service debt and to meet other financial obligations. These measures may be used, along with other measures, in the calculation of certain performance targets for the company’s management and employees.
taxes, upstream transportation and processing expense, upstream
expense and administrative expense, excluding the impact of long-term incentive costs, restructuring costs and current expected credit losses. It is calculated as total operating expenses excluding non-upstream
and Corporate and Other segments, depreciation, depletion and amortization, impairments, accretion
credit losses. When presented on a per BOE basis, Total Costs is divided by production volumes. Management believes this measure is useful to the Company and its investors as a measure of
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OVV’s Culture Drives our Success
O V I N T I V E D G E
A Company defined by its Culture
We are “ONE”
We are “AGILE”
We are “DRIVEN”
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Strong Hedge Position
combination of physical sales and hedges at plus ~$0.26/bbl
Select balance of 2020 Basis hedges:
Hedge Summary
Oil and Condensate1 3Q20 4Q20 2021
WTI Swaps Volume Mbbls/d Price $/bbl 160 $44.60 89 $52.95 7 $43.02 WTI Costless Collars Volume Mbbls/d Call Strike $/bbl Put Strike $/bbl 15 $68.71 $50.00 15 $68.71 $50.00 15 $45.84 $35.00 WTI 3-Way Options Volume Mbbls/d Call Strike $/bbl Put Strike $/bbl Put (Sold) Strike $/bbl 76 $61.46 $53.36 $43.36 15 $50.00 $35.23 $24.64
Natural Gas1,2 3Q20 4Q20 2021
NYMEX Swaps Volume MMcf/d Price $/mcf 970 $2.51 793 $2.65 165 $2.51 NYMEX Costless Collars Volume MMcf/d Call Strike $/mcf Put Strike $/mcf 55 $2.88 $2.50 55 $2.88 $2.50 NYMEX 3-Way Options Volume MMcf/d Call Strike $/mcf Put Strike $/mcf Put (Sold) Strike $/mcf 330 $2.72 $2.60 $2.25 330 $2.72 $2.60 $2.25 170 $3.22 $2.75 $2.50
Quarterly Hedge Positions
Note 1, 2: Refer to Slide Notes Ŧ Non-GAAP measures defined in advisories. For additional information regarding non-GAAP measures see the Company’s website and disclosure in the appendix of this document21
Pricing and Hedge Sensitivity Update
Extreme 2Q price volatility protected by hedges
benchmark WTI down 40%, NYMEX natural gas down 12%
Strong 1H20 Protection from volatility
at average WTI price of $47.88/bbl
average NYMEX price $2.40/MMBtu
Hedge Sensitivities – Gain / (Loss) ($ MM)1 WTI Price $/bbl 3Q20 4Q20 Bal 20
$10 $565 $477 $1,042 $20 $404 $381 $785 $30 $243 $285 $528 $40 $82 $190 $272 $50 ($79) $48 ($31)
NYMEX Natural Gas $/MMBtu 3Q20 4Q20 Bal 20
$1.00 $155 $141 $296 $1.25 $131 $121 $252 $1.50 $108 $102 $210 $1.75 $84 $82 $166 $2.00 $60 $63 $123 $2.25 $37 $43 $80
Note 1, Refer to Slide Notes22
Industry Leading ESG Performance
0.44 0.34 0.30 0.30 0.28 0.21 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
<$6.0
2016 2018
Third Party ESG Assessment 6th Consecutive Safest Year Ever Proven Safety Results
the U.S.
Environmental Performance
Score
Out of 14 Methane Intensity 2018 Water Use
% of Total Water Tons CH4 / MBOE Total Recordable Injury Frequency (TRIF): Number of Recordable Injuries x 200,000 divided by exposure hours
~45% ~45%
Fresh Alternative
TRIF
0.43 0.22
1Out of 14
Score
Out of 14
Score
Note 1, 2 Refer to Slide Notes23
Proactive ESG Approach
Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures
performance
Sustainability Reporting and Programs
Focus on Climate Change and Air Quality
Founding member of The Environmental Partnership
ESG Impact Matrix
Env nvironm nment ntal
Climate Change Water
Safet ety
Process Safety
Governa nanc nce
Stakeholder activism
Social al
Community concerns
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Notes
Slide 6 1) Total liquidity includes $183 MM of available capacity on uncommitted demand lines Slide 9 1) DC&E includes: drill, complete, facilities and on lease tie in costs. STACK and Permian well lengths normalized to 10,000 ft. Montney normalized to 7,500 ft. Montney costs displayed in USD. 0.72 FX rate 2) Montney D&C / 1,000 ft cost performance reflects only Pipestone turned-in-lines for 2Q20 . All other time frames reflect 50% Pipestone and 50% Dawson well split Slide 10 1) Total well (ft) / day is calculated by: Total well measured depth / spud to rig release in days (Spud to rig release time excludes surface casing rig drill time for Permian and STACK) 2) Well lengths normalized to 10,000 ft Slide 19 1) Hedges as of July 27, 2020 For more information on Ovintiv’s Financial Instruments and Risk Management please refer to Note 22 of the interim financial statements. 2021 Oil positions exclude WTI swaptions of 10 Mbbls/d @$58.00 2) Excludes 230 BBtu/day of NYMEX call options sold Slide 20 1) Based on July 27, 2020 positions. Sensitivities do not include gains or losses related to differential hedges.Additional Ethane, Butane and Propane hedges not included in sensitivities Slide 21 1) Proforma 2019 including Newfield and Ovintiv results 2) Historical data represents standalone OVV unless otherwise noted. ISS Score is calculated by averaging each company’s individual ISS Quality Scores for environment, social and governance. Third Party ESG Assessment peer group consists of APA, CLR, COG, CXO, DVN, EOG, MRO, MUR, NBL, PXD, QEP, WPX, XEC