An aviation policy for London Shamal Ratnayaka Aviation Strategy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Shamal Ratnayaka

Aviation Strategy Lead TfL

Presentation to · 16 February 2018

An aviation policy for London

The central role of aviation for London

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Gatwick Stansted City Southend Heathrow Luton

43.1m 24.3m 4.5m 0.9m 75.7m 14.6m

163.2m Total

Mayor’s Transport Strategy London Environment Strategy Mayor’s Economic Development Strategy for London

New aviation policy for London

• Obj ective: a coherent overarching framework within which to set
• ut a considered aviation policy...

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London Plan

Striking the economic/environmental balance

• Aviation plays a key role in supporting London as a world city
• Environmental impacts are a key concern – especially noise, AQ

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“The environmental impacts of aviation must be fully acknowledged and the aviation industry should fully meet its external and environmental costs particularly in respect of noise, air quality and climate change.” “The Mayor supports the case for additional aviation capacity in the south east of England providing it would meet London’s passenger and freight needs.”

Making best use of existing airport capacity

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Gatwick Stansted City Southend Heathrow Luton

...underpinned by rail

Elizabeth line (Crossrail)

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Stratford Shenfield Heathrow Canary Wharf Abbey Wood Reading Slough P BS TCR F LS W Ealing Broadway Hayes & Harlington Ilford Romford Southall Woolwich Custom House Old Oak Common LTN LGW STN LCY SEN HS2

Airport surface access

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“straightforward, seamless and integrated connectivity” “expansion proposals should demonstrate how public transport and other surface access networks would accommodate resulting increases in demand alongside forecast background growth” “increase the proportion of journeys by sustainable means”

The role of airports in supporting spatial growth...

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Gatwick Stansted Heathrow Old Oak Common Tottenham Hale Stratford Croydon

Up to 10 trains per hour Journey time: 10 minutes Up to 20 trains per hour Journey time: 15 minutes 65,000 new jobs 26,000 new homes 20,000 new jobs 10,000 new homes

Lea Valley 65,000 new jobs

52,100 new homes

“...particularly within Opportunity Areas well connected to the airports by public transport”

Other policy areas

• Inclusive access
• Changes to airspace and airport operations
• General and business aviation
• Heliports

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“ According t o t his, we should see a plane land any moment now...”

Heathrow expansion: surface access

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Heathrow expansion: surface access

• 170,000 additional daily passenger and staff trips...
• ...according to HAL, what new surface access infrastructure is

required to meet that demand: “ If any of the individual measures are not delivered, then other measures can be scaled up to achieve the required targets.” [DCO-1]

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Scenario Highway person trips Public Transport person trips PT share Extra vehicles 2015 Base 143,700 90,600 39%

• 2030 No extra traffic

125,200 284,000 69%

• 2030 NPS

181,300 228,000 56% 57,200 2030 No extra traffic [-10% ] 125,200 243,200 66%

• 2030 NPS [-10%

] 167,100 201,300 55% 42,800

nothing!

Heathrow expansion: Air quality

“ Given the inherent uncertainties in air quality modelling, there remains, however, a risk that the option could delay compliance with limit values... ...The risk of impact on compliance is high up to 2029 since the

• ption potentially impacts on compliance in central London and exists

whether or not the Government’s 2017 Plan actions are fully implemented.” [Revised NPS ]

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Heathrow expansion: Noise

• Noise assessment remains based on HAL modelling scenarios:

Minimise total, Minimise new, Respite

• These are the result of an iterative optimisation process

The problem...

• HAL modelling compared against non-optimised future scenario
• NPS

mitigation criteria compares against 2013 baseline

• S

cenarios in part circumvent average noise metrics (LAeq, Lden)

• NATS

found some of these flightpaths to be unfeasible

• NPS

states indicative flightpaths to be used for decision-making... ...yet they might have no relation to flightpaths implemented

– actual flightpaths options only to be published in 2021 after DCO decision

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Heathrow expansion: Economy & Connectivity

According to the Revised NPS ...

• A new runway at Gatwick delivers greater economic benefit to

passengers and the wider economy than a new runway at Heathrow

– Instead NPS

cites questionable ‘ strategic’ benefits in Heathrow’s favour...

• A third runway at Heathrow opens in 2026 – and is full in 2028
• Domestic connectivity falls – from eight routes today...

“ With expansion a total of five domestic routes from Heathrow are protected until 2050, two more than if expansion does not occur.”

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Summary: an aviation policy for London

• Recognises the economic benefits of London airports system
• But the severe environmental impacts must be addressed
• Improved surface access is essential to make best use of capacity
• Key role for airports in supporting growth in Opportunity Areas
• What ever your view of Heathrow expansion, t he current proposals,

as framed by t he NPS and DCO, are simply not fit for purpose

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Questions?

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www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/planning/london-plan/

Consultation closes: Friday 2 March 2018, 5pm