AN ANALYSIS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI using a Numerical Weather - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CLIMATE RESEARCH IN THE DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS

• J. Padovani Ginies & N. Bonnici, MALTA CLIMATE TEAM

14-19th March 2011

AN ANALYSIS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI

using a Numerical Weather Prediction Model, WRF

• Mr. Jason Padovani Ginies & Mr. Norbert Bonnici

CONTENTS

What is a Tropical Storm? Yasi Tropical Storm The Model – WRF Results

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WHAT IS A TROPICAL STORM?

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 Collection of thunderstorms  Low pressure center surrounded by a system of higher pressure.  Catastrophic effects

 Winds damaging properties, vehicles and crops.  Extreme weather conditions possibly causing shipwrecks and aviation

problems.

 Loose debris is also dangerous, being turned to deadly flying

projectiles.

YASI

26th January till 3rd February 2011 Originated from a tropical low near the Fiji islands, moving

to northern Queensland

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YASI

26th January till 3rd February 2011 Originated from a tropical low near the Fiji islands, moving

to northern Queensland

 Reached Category 4 on SSHS scale

Lowest pressure: 929mb Wind sustains of 215 km/h, gusts of 285 km/h About $3.5 billion in damages1 1 Death over the days

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YASI

26th January till 3rd February 2011 Originated from a tropical low near the Fiji islands, moving

to northern Queensland

 Reached Category 4 on SSHS scale

Lowest pressure: 929mb Wind sustains of 215 km/h, gusts of 285 km/h About $3.5 billion in damages1 1 Death over the days

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26th January – Tropical Low 27th January – Tropical Depression 30th January – Tropical Storm 31st February – Severe Tropical Cyclone 2nd February – Category 4

YASI

26th January till 3rd February 2011 Originated from a tropical low near the Fiji islands, moving

to northern Queensland

 Reached Category 4 on SSHS scale

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26th January till 3rd February 2011 Originated from a tropical low near the Fiji islands, moving

to northern Queensland

 Reached Category 4 on SSHS scale

YASI

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Category Wind Speed Storm Surge (km/h) (m) 5 >250 >5.5 4 210-249 4.0-5.5 3 178-209 2.7-3.7 2 154-177 1.8-2.4 1 119-153 1.2-1.5

YASI

26th January till 3rd February 2011 Originated from a tropical low near the Fiji islands, moving

to northern Queensland

 Reached Category 4 on SSHS scale

Lowest pressure: 929mb Wind sustains of 215 km/h, gusts of 285 km/h About $3.5 billion in damages1 1 Death over the days

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1. According to http://www.reuters.com

COMPARISON

KATRINA (2005) YASI (2011)

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 Category 5 on SSHS scale  Damage: $81.2 billion  At least 1,836 deaths  Category 4 on SSHS scale  Damage: $3.5 billion  1 death

WRF

 Mesoscale Numerical Weather prediction model  Installed on the UoM Computer Cluster – ALBERT  Distributed Computing

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WRF Operational Forecasting Weather Research

NESTING

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NESTING

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HOW IT WORKS

Data Mining Pre Processing Physics Post Processing

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DOMAIN USED

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OUR RESULTS

Yasi

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CLOUD FRACTION

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SURFACE PRESSURE

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CONCLUSION

Comparable with storm track Achieved the eye and a cyclonic system

Experience

WRF ALBERT

Informative on current events

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The MCT is grateful to the following:

 PRECIS  Met Office UK, C. Morrell, S. Tucker, D. Hein, D. Hassell  RegCM4  The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, X. Bi  WRF  The WRF community  Department of Physics  C.V. Sammut, L. Zammit Mangion, A. Magro, D. Cutajar  IT Services  A. Zammit, S. Portelli, S. Ancilleri  Data Centres  ESRL, ECMWF, Australian RCS network

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