ALW Airport Master Plan Update Planning Advisory Committee Meeting #2 February 11, 2016
Meeting Agenda 1. Introductions 2. Review of PAC #1 3. Study Progress 4. Passenger Demand 5. Activity Forecasts 6. Facility Preview – Time Permitting
Introductions 1. Airport Staff 2. Project Team 3. Advisory Committee 4. Public in Attendance
Review of PAC #1 Inventory of Existing Facilities & SWOT Analysis Follow-Up Questions Is a turf runway possible? – Possible, but at a cost and with a limited benefit. A turf runway requires maintenance and upkeep, which would reduce funds available for other projects. Is a GA terminal building eligible for FAA funding? – Public areas are eligible. Lower priority than airfield safety improvements and pavements and have strict funding limits. What impact would runway centerline lights have on minimums? – These, along with touchdown zone lights, allow for landing visibility minimums below ½ mile and takeoff minimums below 1,800 RVR.
SWOT Analysis Strengths: Weakness: 1. Facilities and infrastructure 1. Responsiveness to aircraft fuel availability 2. Available property for development 2. Airline competition, single destination offered 3. Local economy is growing 3. Airport needs to become more financially self- 4. Airline passenger growth; increasing sufficient (also a threat) enplanements Opportunities: Threats: 1. Attract aviation oriented businesses, offer 1. Port is perceived competition with private more retail in Business Park sector investment and pricing 2. Get Los Angeles/Central California airline 2. Airport needs to become more financially self- service sufficient 3. College Flight Program; train pilots, perhaps 3. Lack of private investment into new hangar other aviation curriculums development
Study Progress Airport Layout Alternatives Forecasts* Plan* • What do we • Can we meet • How do we have? expected pay for these • What demand • What do we • What will these demand? changes? do we expect? need to changes look change to like? Capital meet demand? Facility Inventory Improvement Requirements Plan Stakeholder Coordination & Public Outreach PAC Public * Denotes FAA-approved Element
Passenger Demand Analysis Trina Froehlich, Senior Air Service Consultant
Methodology and Catchment Area Purpose: To support the Master Plan enplanement forecast Study timeframe: YE 1Q 2015 Data used: ARC tickets: 20,880 Adjustments made for Allegiant & Southwest Catchment area: Geographic area where the population would most likely use the airport 10 zip codes Population = 74,813
True Market Estimate ORIGINATING AIRPORT USE Overall retention of 38% of true RANK AIRPORT PAX % Domestic market estimate 1 ALW 72,765 39 2 PSC 66,335 35 Pasco (PSC) is the largest diverting 3 SEA 23,085 12 4 PDX 17,272 9 airport with 35% 5 GEG 10,170 5 Subtotal 189,626 100 Seattle (SEA) and Portland (PDX) International 1 PSC 4,205 39 had 22% combined 2 SEA 2,851 26 3 ALW 2,217 20 Overall true market size 4 PDX 1,324 12 5 GEG 352 3 200,576 annual passengers Subtotal 10,950 100 Domestic and international 275 Passenger Daily Each Way 1 ALW 74,982 38 2 PSC 70,539 35 (PDEW) 3 SEA 25,936 13 4 PDX 18,597 9 5 GEG 10,522 5 Total 200,576 100
Airport Use by Community % AIRPORT USE TRUE COMMUNITY ALW PSC SEA PDX GEG MARKET PAX Walla Walla 43 33 14 7 3 157,870 College Place 44 34 8 11 4 16,958 Milton Freewater 32 48 3 12 4 10,423 Dayton 28 52 10 1 9 5,855 Waitsburg 43 36 9 2 10 2,802 Athena 28 35 17 19 1 2,221 Touchet 24 65 2 5 4 1,620 Prescott 36 48 9 2 4 1,270 Weston 44 43 4 5 3 803 Dixie 42 54 0 0 4 755 Total 37 35 13 9 5 200,576 Walla Walla community had the highest number of passengers 79% of the true market Retained 43% of passengers, higher than the average
Top 25 Domestic Markets ORIGIN AIRPORT % TOTAL Seattle is top RANK DESTINATION ALW PSC SEA PDX GEG PAX PDEW 1 Seattle, WA 92 6 0 0 2 30,305 41.5 2 Las Vegas, NV 28 62 4 3 3 9,811 13.4 destination airport 3 Sacramento, CA 35 28 8 30 0 8,144 11.2 4 Los Angeles, CA 51 31 10 8 1 7,918 10.8 5 San Francisco, CA 24 53 14 9 0 7,734 10.6 Could be skewed 6 Portland, OR 20 76 0 0 4 6,659 9.1 7 San Diego, CA 36 25 18 21 0 6,267 8.6 with “interline” tickets 8 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) 40 34 9 10 7 6,032 8.3 9 Orange County, CA 47 23 22 4 4 5,840 8.0 30,305 annual 10 Denver, CO 17 38 10 7 28 5,638 7.7 11 Oakland, CA 32 17 9 13 29 4,795 6.6 passengers or 41.5 12 Boston, MA 23 38 15 19 4 3,957 5.4 13 San Jose, CA 32 34 21 12 1 3,705 5.1 PDEW 14 Anchorage, AK 42 9 40 4 4 3,699 5.1 15 Washington, DC (DCA) 20 43 22 11 4 3,597 4.9 16 Ontario, CA 35 33 13 11 9 3,240 4.4 California markets 17 Chicago, IL (ORD) 48 19 14 13 7 3,216 4.4 18 Newark, NJ 35 37 18 7 3 2,999 4.1 make up 5 of the top 19 Kansas City, MO 20 34 17 13 17 2,771 3.8 20 Orlando, FL (MCO) 19 55 14 8 4 2,743 3.8 21 Minneapolis, MN 20 61 10 3 6 2,548 3.5 10 markets 22 Burbank, CA 44 38 8 7 3 2,515 3.4 23 Phoenix, AZ (AZA) 0 100 0 0 0 2,467 3.4 24 Honolulu, HI 31 17 15 28 9 2,149 2.9 25 Reno, NV 29 33 9 24 4 1,807 2.5 Top 25 domestic 44 32 10 8 5 140,555 192.5 Total domestic 39 35 12 9 5 189,626 259.8
Top 15 International Markets 4 of the top 5 ORIGIN AIRPORT % PASSENGERS RANK DESTINATION PSC SEA ALW PDX GEG TOTAL PDEW markets are to 1 Guadalajara, Mexico 60 3 20 12 5 1,151 1.6 Mexico – largely 2 San Jose del Cabo, Mexico 60 11 20 8 1 811 1.1 3 Edmonton, Canada 34 29 22 12 3 637 0.9 leisure related 4 Cancun, Mexico 34 13 20 24 9 469 0.6 5 Puerto Vallarta, Mexico 37 15 20 14 13 437 0.6 Due to small 6 Vancouver, Canada 20 5 60 14 0 408 0.6 sample sizes, 7 Paris-De Gaulle, France 20 40 30 11 0 362 0.5 8 Manila, Philippines 19 59 20 1 1 315 0.4 the top 9 Amsterdam, Netherlands 34 28 20 18 1 287 0.4 10 Victoria, Canada 34 29 22 12 3 285 0.4 international 11 London, UK (LHR) 23 24 44 4 5 267 0.4 markets will 12 Beijing, China 10 67 20 3 0 247 0.3 13 Mexico City, Mexico 61 13 20 5 1 237 0.3 likely vary 14 Toronto, Canada 55 15 21 9 0 229 0.3 significantly 15 Mazatlan, Mexico 34 29 22 12 3 188 0.3 Top 15 International 40 21 25 11 3 6,330 8.7 from year to Total International 39 26 20 12 3 10,950 15.0 year
Geographic Distribution of Passengers Largest region is the West region followed by 5% the Northwest region – 25% 2% together they comprise 65% of total 6% 3% 40% Only 5% is international travel 6% 38% to Mexico 4% 20% to Europe 18% to Canada 4%
Airlines Used by Diverting Passengers Alaska obtains largest share of Other diverting passengers with 30% F9 AA 4% 2% 6% followed by Delta with 23% G4 AS 6% 30% At PSC, 31% Delta, 26% United, WN 26% Alaska, 11% Allegiant 9% At SEA, 42% Alaska, 17% Delta, 11% United, 11% Southwest and 10% American UA Helps in discussions with 20% airlines on new or additional DL 23% service
Average Domestic Fares: YE 1Q 2015 AVERAGE ONE-WAY FARE ALW Alaska’s lower fare RANK DESTINATION ALW PSC SEA PDX GEG MAX DIFF. 1 Seattle, WA $82 $100 - $106 $100 ($18) structure provides 2 Las Vegas, NV $123 $90 $128 $113 $148 $33 3 Sacramento, CA $157 $170 $119 $109 $159 $48 4 Los Angeles, CA $131 $119 $130 $140 $145 $12 competitive fares in 5 San Francisco, CA $157 $153 $121 $118 $147 $39 6 Portland, OR $143 - - - $98 $45 most ALW markets 7 San Diego, CA $168 $166 $123 $109 $154 $58 8 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) $155 $153 $153 $144 $151 $11 ALW had highest fare 9 Orange County, CA $131 $143 $143 $141 $140 ($9) 10 Denver, CO $182 $243 $139 $136 $133 $49 11 Oakland, CA $126 $157 $108 $108 $153 $18 in 6 of top 25 markets 12 Boston, MA $250 $287 $230 $231 $252 $20 13 San Jose, CA $148 $176 $111 $113 $149 $37 Service availability is 14 Anchorage, AK $229 $252 $222 $232 $241 $7 15 Washington, DC (DCA) $309 $339 $261 $242 $274 $67 16 Ontario, CA $124 $150 $130 $132 $163 ($6) likely a primary cause 17 Chicago, IL (ORD) $266 $297 $227 $229 $228 $39 18 Newark, NJ $254 $286 $251 $257 $271 $3 of diversion to 19 Kansas City, MO $215 $249 $177 $177 $184 $38 20 Orlando, FL (MCO) $227 $255 $211 $221 $227 $16 alternate airports 21 Minneapolis, MN $199 $261 $183 $226 $228 $16 22 Burbank, CA $151 $146 $136 $133 $169 $17 23 Phoenix, AZ (AZA) - $75 - - - - 24 Honolulu, HI $299 $278 $255 $234 $279 $65 25 Reno, NV $172 $168 $127 $117 $162 $55 Average domestic fare $150 $196 $181 $173 $173 ($23) Source: Diio Mi; Note: Year Ended March 31, 2015; Fares do not include taxes or Passenger Facility Charges
Average Domestic Fare Trend $220 $200 One-Way Average Fare $180 $160 $140 $120 ALW PSC SEA PDX GEG $100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Ended March 31 ALW fares have not increased at the same rate over the last 10 years as the alternate airports. Source: Diio Mi
Recommend
More recommend
