Alleghany
Investor Presentation August 2020
Alleghany Investor Presentation August 2020 Our Management - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Alleghany Investor Presentation August 2020 Our Management Approach Strategy Philosophy 1 Own high-quality underwriting franchises Conservatism dominates our Underwrite for profit management philosophy. We Grow premiums
Investor Presentation August 2020
“Conservatism dominates our management philosophy. We shun investment fads and fashions in favor of acquiring relatively few interests in basic financial, industrial and
potential to deliver long-term value to our investors”
― Underwrite for profit ― Grow premiums only when market allows for profitable growth ― Consistently maintain appropriately prudent loss reserves
attractive
― Provide resources, support and oversight to help them grow revenues, profits and returns
risk profile
potential opportunities (and downturns)
Our Management Approach
Philosophy Strategy 1 2 3 5 4
2020 Overview & Outlook
primarily IBNR)
economic activity and project site closures and delays, but overall impacts appear manageable
COVID-19 Pandemic: Year-to-Date Losses by Business Line
TransRe RSUI Total Commentary Event Cancellation $ 111 $ 111
approximately $25 million for 1H 2020, ~$35 million for 2H 2020 and ~$70 million in 2021 Property 68 $ 20 88
property contracts / treaties
pathogen exclusions; provision follows detailed claims review and primarily relates to small number of U.S. property policies with low layer or sub-limited coverage grant as well as a provision for legal expenses Accident & Health 38 38
Guaranty 31 31
mortgage business Other 20 20
coverages Total $ 268 $ 20 $ 288
Summary of 1H 2020 Results
(1) Attributable to Alleghany stockholders. (2) Net earnings attributable to Alleghany stockholders excluding (on an after-tax basis) change in the fair value of equity securities, net realized gains, change in allowance for credit losses on available for sale securities and amortization of intangible assets. (3) Accumulated other comprehensive income. (4) Includes cumulative effect of adoption of new accounting pronouncements and other.Income Statement
1H 2020 Change vs. 1H 2019 Net Premiums Written $3,012- 6%-- Net Investment Income 231- (13)% Underwriting Result (64) N/M Combined Ratio 102.3% (10) pts- Net Losses(1) $(184) N/M Adjusted Earnings(2) 86 (73)%
($ in millions)by both Reinsurance (+4%) and Insurance (+17%)
lower (re)investment yields, as well as lower dividend and partnership income
impacted by $288mm of estimated pre-tax COVID-19 losses (See slide 5)
ex-COVID-19 of 92.2%
charges of $74 million relating to write- downs of Stranded Oil oil field assets
2020 special dividend declined by 0.8% during the first half of 2020
AOCI and the special dividend, declined by 2.2% during 1H 2020
Commentary
1H 2020 Changes in Equity
Q4 ‘19 Stockholders’ Equity $8,777--- Net Losses (184)-- Change in AOCI(3) 121--- Special Dividend (215)-- Share Repurchases (44)-- Other(4) 2)-- Q2 ‘20 Stockholders’ Equity $8,456---
Alleghany Quarterly and Year to Date Consolidated Performance
(1) Attributable to Alleghany stockholders. (2) Adjusted for $15/share dividend paid in March 2020.Net Premiums Written Net Investment Income Adjusted Earnings(1) BVPS Growth(2)
($ in millions)$1,478 $1,447 Q2 '20 Q2 '19 $3,012 $2,832 1H '20 1H '19 102.3% 92.5% 1H '20 1H '19 102.8% 91.6% Q2 '20 Q2 '19
Combined Ratio Net Earnings(1)
$119 $143 Q2 '20 Q2 '19 $231 $266 1H '20 1H '19 $12 $179 Q2 '20 Q2 '19 $86 $319 1H '20 1H '19 $177 $296 Q2 '20 Q2 '19 $(184) $736 1H '20 1H '19 7.6% 5.6% Q2 '20 Q2 '19 (0.8%) 14.1% 1H '20 1H '19
+2% +6%Underwriting Performance – 1H 2020
Reinsurance Insurance
Total Re/Insurance Property Casualty & Other Total RSUI Cap Specialty Total Loss ratio 80.2% 72.0% 74.4% 66.2% 60.5% 64.8% 72.3% Expense ratio 31.1% 30.3% 30.5% 23.5% 41.3% 28.1% 30.0% Combined ratio 111.3% 102.3% 104.9% 89.7% 101.8% 92.9% 102.3% Catastrophe activity & prior year development: Current year catastrophe losses 32.1% 5.1% 13.1% 12.1% 0.8% 9.2% 12.2% Net (favorable) adverse development in prior year loss reserves (9.2%) (3.2%) (4.9%) 3.2% 0.1% 2.4% (3.3%) Combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses and prior year development 88.4% 100.4% 96.7% 74.4% 100.9% 81.3% 93.4%
Strong Underlying Performance Offset by Significant Catastrophe (COVID-19) Activity
Consolidated: Alleghany Capital Subsidiaries: Stockholders' Equity $ 8,456 87.7% Jazwares $ 287 3.0% Parent Company Debt(1) 1,190 12.3% W&W|AFCO Steel 255 2.6% Total Capital $ 9,646 100.0% Wilbert(2) 146 1.5% Precision Cutting Technologies 127 1.3% Shares outstanding (mm)
14.31
Concord 108 1.1% BVPS $ 590.85 Kentucky Trailer 80 0.8% BVPS ex. AOCI 570.45 IPS 66 0.7% Market Capitalization
$ 7,474
Total Alleghany Capital $ 1,067 11.1% Re/insurance: Other: TransRe $ 5,154 53.4% Parent cash and marketable securities(3) $ 1,197 12.4% RSUI 1,746 18.1% Stranded Oil 26 0.3% CapSpecialty 399 4.1% Alleghany Properties 24 0.2% AIHL Re 24 0.2% Other items, net(4) 9 0.1% Total Re/insurance $ 7,323 75.9% Total Other $ 1,256 13.0%
Capital Allocation as of June 30, 2020
Note: All subsidiaries are majority owned unless otherwise stated. Market data as of July 31, 2020. (1) Excludes $350 million par value senior notes at TransRe that mature in 2039 as well as $439 million of debt (excluding intercompany debt) at Alleghany Capital. (2) On April 1, 2020, Alleghany Capital acquired an additional approximately 55% of Wilbert it did not previously own, bringing its equity interest to approximately 100%. As of that date, Wilbert is accounted for on a fully-consolidated basis. Prior to April 1, 2020, Alleghany had a 45% equity investment accounted for using equity method. (3) Parent cash and marketable securities exclude $45 million of cash at the TransRe holding company, which is included in TransRe capital. (4) Primarily Alleghany parent deferred compensation and taxes, as well as ACC parent. amounts in millions, except book value per shareCumulative Results Over H
$13,991 2.7x $5,154 8 $31,427 $907 97.1% $1,732 8.8% 3,946 2.3x 1,746 17 12,571 1,824 84.8 1,324 11.3 925 2.3x 399 18 3,692 (58) 101.6 130 5.0
Total (Re)insurance
$18,894(1) 2.6x 7,323(1)
($ in millions)Current (Re)insurance Operations
Note: As of June 30, 2020. (1) Includes AIHL Re.March 6, 2012 July 1, 2003 January 1, 2002
Consolidated Underwriting Results for Past 10 Years
Note: Underwriting profit is a non-GAAP financial measure. Refer to the appendix for further information.Underwriting Profit Combined Ratio
2010-to-Date Underwriting Profits of $1.7 B and Combined Ratio of ~95.9%
$131 $50 $220 $421 $495 $467 $401 ($316) ($162) $33 ($64) '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 1H '20 Pre-
TransRe
83.0% 93.4% 94.1% 90.1% 88.8%89.0% 91.9% 106.4% 103.2% 99.4% 102.3% 95.9%'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 1H '20 Pre- TransRe Catastrophe Losses ($mm):
31 74 470 15 1 95 62 226 818 65 8 400 346atastrophe C
TransRe – Structural Competitive Advantages
History of Prudently Navigating Market Conditions and Opportunities
global reinsurer with casualty & specialty expertise
relationships 70% proportional business Leads or co-leads more than half
party capital Generates recurring fee income
$1,732 million since acquisition and repaid $667 million in senior notes
Net Premiums Written(1)
(LTM 1H 2020)combined ratio of 92.7%
1H 2020 Highlights
$3.9 billion(1)
(1) Excludes a certain large whole account quota share treaty which contributed $673 million to LTM 1H 2020 net premiums written.Business Overview
Personal Auto / Motor 12% Traditional Casualty 18% Professional Liability 17% Non- Catastrophe Property 21% Catastrophe Property 7% A&H 8% Guaranty 7% Marine & Energy 4% Aviation 2% Engineering 1% Other Specialty 3% Property 28% Casualty 47% Specialty 25%Total Currently Estimated Rate Change(1) (%)
Traditional Casualty Professional Liability Non-Catastrophe Property Catastrophe Property OtherTransRe – Positive Estimated Renewal Rate Momentum
Note: Based on data received from cedents as of July 1, 2020. Data excludes a certain large whole account quota share treaty. (1) Estimated primary rate changes plus reinsurance rate changes on XOL treaties for the respective treaty year for all renewal treaties globally. Pro rata treaty rate change data based on intermittently provided data from cedents and therefore reflected here with an estimated 6-month lag. (2) Includes personal auto and various specialty lines.All Lines: 4% All Lines: 9% All Lines: 6%
Significantly higher renewal rates in certain peak catastrophe zones (e.g. Japan & Florida)
(2)RSUI – Taking Advantage of Improving E&S Market
Continued New Business and Rate Momentum with Double Digit Renewal Rate Increases on Multiple Lines
Underwriting Profit
Cumulative Underwriting Profit: $1.8 billion
(Cumulative data for 2H 2003 – 1H 2020 period)wholesale specialty insurance market
profit and grow book value through cycles
technology, models and analytical tools
Business Overview
improvement in expense ratio
1H 2020 Highlights
D&O Liability 7%Professional Liability 20% General Liability 7% Umbrella / Excess 14% Property 51%
Alternative Structures 1%25% 26% 38%
3% 7% 13%
4%
5% 6% 14% 28% 0% 10% 17% 10% 2017 2018 2019 1H 2020
New Business Submissions (Units)
RSUI – Continued Acceleration in Rate Increases
Note: Data is quarterly rate and new business submission increases over prior-year quarter.1% 2% 3% 13% 3% 4% 6% 15%
3% 4% 2% 5% 8% 14%
5% 9% 14% 2017 2018 2019 1H 2020
Renewal Rate Change (%)
CapSpecialty – Repositioning for Greater Efficiency & Overall Profitability
Meaningful Progress Towards Its Goal of Becoming A Preferred Specialty Insurer for Small and Mid-Sized Businesses
Gross Premiums Written
$382 million
(LTM Q2 2020)size businesses
expense management & technology
Business Overview
1H 2020 Highlights
Traditional Property & Casualty 24% Healthcare 24% Specialty Casualty 19% Professional Liability 19% Surety 14%
Investments Are a Significant Part of Our Earnings Power
(1) Excludes Alleghany Capital. (2) Includes net investment income, net realized gains (losses), net of changes in allowance for credit losses on available for sale securities, change in fair value of equities and change in net unrealized gains (losses) on debt securities.Portfolio Allocation Investment Leverage(1) Investment Results Pre-Tax
Quality of Debt Securities: AA-
Total: $20.3 billion
Portfolio Allocation
Debt Securities 74% Equity Securities 7% Cash & Short-term 14% Commercial Mortgage Loans 3% Other Invested Assets 2% 2.73x 2.59x 2.55x 2.56x 2.72x 2.55x 2.72x
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1H '20 5.3% 1.0% 2.6% 7.1% 0.1% 9.3% 0.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.8% 3.1% 2.6% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1H 2020
Annualized financial statement return on average invested assets Annualized investment book yield
(2)Investment Return Components (Pre-Tax)
$460 $439 $439 $45 1 $5 01 $550 $231 $211 $80 $18 $90 ($5 ) ($26) ($40) $25 ($185 ) $28 $636 ($229) $710 ($281) $307 ($15 8) ($20) $129 ($25 7) $485 $141 $1,002 $176 $465 $1,306 $10 $1,719 $52 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1H 2020 Change in unrealized gains (losses) - fixed income Change in fair value - equitites Net realized gains (losses), net of change in allowance for credit losses Net investment income ($ in millions)Illustrative Impact of Declining Interest Rates
(1) Fixed income invested assets as of June 30, 2020 and comprised of debt securities, short-term investments and commercial mortgage loans. (2) Combined ratio points based on LTM net premiums earned of $6 billion. ($ millions, unless otherwise stated)Annual Impact Fixed income invested assets(1) $ 16,755 % Reinvested annually 15% Amount reinvested or at lower yield $ 2,513 ∆ Average reinvestment rate (1%) Annual decline in net investment income (NII) (25) Equivalent CoR points(2) 0.4
Low yields are putting pressure on overall re/insurance profitability Improved underwriting results are necessary to compensate
$25 $43 $64 $93 $161 $86 $19 $33 $50 $83 $143 $74 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM Q2 '20
Corporate Activity & Deal Expenses Non-Industrial Industrial Adjusted EBT (Net of Corp. Activity & Deal Expenses)Alleghany Capital - Earnings Growth History
($ millions) (1) Adjusted earnings before income taxes (“Adjusted EBT”), a non-GAAP measure, represents noninsurance revenue less all operating expenses, and does not include: (i) amortization of intangible assets; (ii) change in the fair value of equity securities; (iii) net realized capital gains; (iv) change in allowance for credit losses on available for sale securities; and (v) income taxes. Excludes certain minor, legacy investments that were previously reflected in Alleghany Capital in 2018 and prior periods. (2) Adjusted EBT excluding ACC corporate activity and deal expenses. (3) ACC Share of Adjusted EBT calculated based on weighted average ownership percentages and includes corporate activity and deal expenses.Adjusted Earnings Before Tax(1) – 100% Basis
“Although COVID-19 significantly impacted activity and earnings in the first half of 2020, Alleghany Capital’s businesses are well positioned with improving momentum going into the second half of 2020”
ACC Share of A dj. EBT(3)$16 $25 $38 $66 $112 $59
Diversified Portfolio of High-Performing Businesses Help Mitigate Individual Business Seasonality
(2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)arts businesses due to temporary customer facility closures, p articularly in the aerospace segment
2 013 $241 77%ns driven by infrastructure and technology sectors, leading to significant increase in backlog since year-end 2019 and this time l ast year 2 017 $179 100%
apacity
2 016 $351 76%Alleghany Capital – Business Updates
Industrial Non-Industrial
(2) (3)1) E&S market opportunity is significant; RSUI is well positioned
retrenching
(e.g., wildfires, commercial auto, capital constraints, volatility aversion)
2) Reinsurance market firming
casualty lines with rate increases above claim trends 3) Strong backlogs and order books at Alleghany Capital 1) Coronavirus pandemic & related global economic downturn
regulatory / judicial risk associated with business interruption
2) Low interest rates 3) Political uncertainty 4) Global geopolitical and economic uncertainty 5) Increasing loss costs / social inflation / nuclear verdicts in casualty lines
Key Macroeconomic & Industry Themes
Opportunities Challenges 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5
(10 .1)% 3.2% (5.2)% 1.0 % 11.1% (12)% (10)% (8)% (6)% (4)% (2)% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020E World United States European Union East Asia & Pacific U.S. Unemployment
Pandemic-Driven Global Recession; Spike in Unemployment
Source: World Bank. GDP growth (annual %) based on constant local currency and U.S. dollars for aggregates. (1) U.S. unemployment rate as of June 30, 2020.Significant Uncertainty Around The Macro-Economic Impact of a Prolonged Pandemic
(1)Real GDP Growth & U.S. Unemployment (YOY)
30.0x 35.0x 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Shiller P/E - S&P 500
Persistent Low Interest Rates; High Asset Prices
Source: Bloomberg. Market data as of July 31, 2020. (1) Based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio).Treasury Yields & Credit Spreads Is the S&P 500 Overpriced?
0. 55% 1. 46% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020Yield / Spread
UST 10Y BBB Credit SpreadsJan 2018 - Jul 2020
(20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Quarterly Earnings GrowthKey Alleghany Takeaways
Leading franchise across global reinsurance and specialty insurance Long-term focus with track record of disciplined underwriting and risk
management through insurance and investment cycles
Conservative financial profile and strong capitalization Holding company conservatively capitalized with significant liquidity allowing
us to manage through the downturn, support subsidiaries and respond to
Diversified and conservative investment portfolio; demonstrated investment
capability and performance
Alleghany Capital has achieved critical mass. Despite current pressures, we
expect improved earnings contribution and double-digit return on equity over the long-term
Delivering Consistent BVPS Growth Over Cycles
(1) Excludes the impact of a $10.00 per share special dividend payment on March 15, 2018. (2) Includes special dividend on $10 paid in 2018 and assumes proceeds are reinvested in Alleghany book value.Book Val ue Annual Rolling Annualized Averag e(2) Year Per Share * Growth in BVPS Three-Year Four-Year Five-Year Seven
Ten-Year 1999 $ 122.27 2000 141.0 3 15.3% 2001 162.36 15.1% 2002 162.75 0.2% 10.0% 2003 182.18 11.9% 8.9% 10.5% 2004 204.08 12.0% 7.9% 9.7% 10.8% 2005 212.80 4.3% 9.3% 7.0% 8.6% 2006 244.25 14.8% 10.3% 10.7% 8.5% 10.4% 2007 281.36 15.2% 11.3% 11.5% 11.6% 10.4% 2008 267.37 (5.0%) 7.9% 7.0% 8.0% 7.4% 2009 294.79 10.3% 6.5% 8.5% 7.6% 8.9% 9.2% 2010 325.31 10.4% 5.0% 7.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.7% 2011 342.12 5.2% 8.6% 5.0% 7.0% 7.7% 7.7% 2012 379.13 10.8% 8.7% 9.1% 6.1% 8.6% 8.8% 2013 412.96 8.9% 8.3% 8.8% 9.1% 7.8% 8.5% 2014 465 .51 12.7% 10.8% 9.4% 9.6% 7.5% 8.6% 2015 48 6.02 4.4% 8.6% 9.2% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 2016 515.24 6.0% 7.7% 8.0% 8.5% 8.3% 7.8% 2017 553.20 7.4% 5.9% 7.6% 7.9% 7.9% 7.0% 2018 527.75 (4.6%)(1) 3.4% 3.7% 5.4% 6.7% 7.2% 2019 611.00 15.8% 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 7.3% 7.8% Averag e 8.6% 8.1% 8.2% 8.2% 8.3% 8.2%
Appendix I. Company Overview
A History of Investing in Successful Companies
1929 1946 1949 1968 1974 1985 2003 1986 1995 2002 20 12 2007 1991 1993 20 13 20 20
Investors Diversified Services (“IDS”) (sold to American Express in 1984) New York Central Railroad (merged into Penn Central in 1968) MSL Industries Jones Motor Company Chicago Title (spun off in 1998/1999) Shelby Insurance (sold in 1991) Underwriters Reinsurance Company (sold to Swiss Re in 2000) World Minerals (sold in 2005) Darwin Underwriters established (IPO in 2006 and sold in 2008) PacificComp (sold to CopperPoint in 2017) Alleghany Ca pital Corporation Ro undwood (formerly Alleghany Capital Partners) Alleghany Asset Management (sold to ABN Amro in 2001)20 14 20 15 20 17 20 18
Legacy Alleghany Current Alleghany / Logo2008
Over 90 years as a public company (NYSE: Y)
Alleghany Today
Notes: Financial data as of June 30, 2020 unless otherwise indicated. Gross premiums are LTM June 30, 2020. Market data as of July 31, 2020. (1) Best’s Review March 2019 – Top 50 Global Reinsurers; ranking based on unaffiliated gross premiums written in 2018. (2) A.M. Best U.S. Surplus Lines – Segment Review, September 2019.Reinsurance Insurance Investments
Alleghany Capital Co rporation TransRe RSUI CapSpecialty
global reinsurer(1)
specialty commercial lines Asset Management
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2 '20
Modest Financial Leverage and Conservative Risk Profile
(1) Reflects net occurrence PML (after-tax) in a 1-in-250 year event (having a likelihood of being exceeded in any single year of 0.4 percent) for largest single zone peril (e.g. Northeast U.S. Wind for Q2 ‘20). (2) Risk assets are defined as high yield bonds, below investment grade collateralized loan obligations and bank loans, publicly traded equity securities, private equity and partnership interests.Debt to Capital Holding Company Liquidity Peak Zone PML / Shareholder Equity(1) Risk Assets / Shareholders’ Equity(2)
(millions)
15.8% 15.6% 14.7% 17.5% 16.3% 18.9% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2 '20
Other Debt (ACC) Senior Notes$821 $1,047 $1,383 $1,122 $1,283 $1,242 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2 '20 10% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2 '20
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
This document may contain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related information are provided in our financial supplement and Form 10- K and 10-Q filings, which are available on our website at www.alleghany.com, and below. Adjusted Earnings Before Income Taxes Adjusted earnings before income taxes represents noninsurance revenue and net investment income less other operating expenses and interest expense, and does not include: (i) amortization of intangible assets; (ii) change in the fair value of equity securities; (iii) net realized capital gains; (iv) change in allowance for credit losses on available for sale securities; and (v) income taxes. Because adjusted earnings before income taxes excludes income taxes, change in the fair value of equity securities, net realized capital gains, credit losses for available for sale securities and amortization of intangible assets, it provides an indication of economic performance that is not affected by investment activity, levels of effective tax rates or levels of amortization resulting from acquisition accounting. Alleghany uses adjusted earnings before income taxes as a supplement to earnings before income taxes, the most comparable GAAP financial measure, to evaluate the performance of certain of its noninsurance operating subsidiaries and investments. A reconciliation of adjusted earnings before income taxes to earnings before income taxes is presented on page 29 of the Financial Supplement. Underwriting Profit Underwriting profit represents net premiums earned less net loss and LAE and commissions, brokerage and other underwriting expenses, all as determined in accordance with GAAP, and does not include net investment income, change in the fair value of equity securities, net realized capital gains, credit losses for available for sale securities, noninsurance revenue, other operating expenses, corporate administration, amortization of intangible assets and interest expense. Alleghany uses underwriting profit as a supplement to earnings before income taxes, the most comparable GAAP financial measure, to evaluate the performance of its reinsurance and insurance segments and believes that underwriting profit provides useful additional information to investors because it highlights net earnings attributable to Alleghany's reinsurance and insurance segment's underwriting performance. Earnings before income taxes may show a profit despite an underlying underwriting loss, and when underwriting losses persist over extended periods, a reinsurance or an insurance company's ability to continue as an ongoing concern may be at risk. A reconciliation of underwriting profit to earnings before income taxes is presented within "Consolidated Underwriting Results" on pages 11-14 of the Financial Supplement.