Ale xa ndra Chudno vsky T e l-Aviv Unive rsity, I sra e l AiR-O - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ale xa ndra Chudno vsky T e l-Aviv Unive rsity, I sra e l

AiR-O L a b , He a d Sc ho o l o f E nviro nme nt a nd E a rth SCie nc e s

https:/ / e ng lish.ta u.a c .il/

AiR-O L a b

Are he a twa ve s a proble m in your

c ountry?

 - Why is it a proble m?

 In the Environmental Health in Israel 2014 report, the major challenges related to climate change included developing a national action plan to cope with climate change. Other challenges included strengthening collaboration between the IMS and the MoH, and creating a nationwide database on the health implications of climate change.  MoH, in collaboration with cutaneous experts and the Israel Society of Dermatology and Venereology, issued a position paper in February 2016 with the aim of raising awareness about the disease and its diagnosis, and

• f standardizing the treatment of diagnosed patients(

Clima te o f I sra e l

Heat waves increase

https://www.ehf.org.il/en/climate_change According to an IMS report published in 2016, there has been a statistically significant , in which the in the frequency of heat waves increase during the last two decades average daily temperature was at least 6oC higher than average for three consecutive days (Figure 2). A statistically significant decrease in the intervals between heat waves was also observed

High temperatures

 Average temperatures since 2000 are much higher than the average temperatures measured in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s (Figure 1).  According to these measurements, June 2016 was the hottest month on record, with the average daily maximum temperature between 2.5 and 3.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average daily maximum temperature measured during the years 1995-2009

https://www.ehf.org.il/en/climate_change

children behind MDA issued a plea for parents to take particular care not to leave circumstances that have led to a number of deaths in the — in cars accidentally past.

Activities organized by the ministry of education will only be held in shaded

areas, or under trees and close to a water source and air-conditioned facilities.

Why is a pr

• ble m?

Next steps

 Statistical model to assess Tair based on long- term satellite BT (~200 images 1998-2015)  This will include a simple and a “complex” models

• Extended Area Model: A

Complex Model

Tairij = (α + uj) + (β1 + vj) * BTij + a1NDVI+a2%built_area+a3WS+a4RH+εij

• Studying the spatial

patterns of cold vs warm periods

ig 1. The difference between coarse spatial resolution (1km, MODIS) a,c, and high spatial resolution (30m Landsat) b, at the same

ay (26 July 2015) . Notice the wider range in the high spatial resolution. Also, in the coarse spatial resolution image no features are etectable whereas in the high spatial resolution some features are detectable, e.g. the University football pitch, made of synthetic turf, d 1 h Y k i (d d 2) d Ib G bi l S (d d 3)

1 2 3 MODIS Terra (10:30am) Landsat (11:30am) MODIS Aqua (13:30pm) a b c

Bet Dagan and Irony D measured AT (mean by month – Jul-Aug- at 11:00am local time)

y = 0,11x - 188,70 R² = 0,47 28 28,5 29 29,5 30 30,5 31 31,5 2000 2005 2010 Mean AT (°C) measured AT (°C) measured

Irony D: Average Measured AT (Jul- Aug)

y = 0,07x - 105,46 R² = 0,67 28 29 30 31 32 33 1984 1994 2004 2014 Mean AT (°C) measured AT (°C) measured

Bet Dagan: Average Measured AT (Jul-Aug)

Figure 5. Mean predicted AT for Jul-Aug for three periods.

Jul Aug 1984- 1992 Mean – 29.81 STD- 0.58 N - 7 Jul Aug 1998- 2003 Mean - 30.19 STD- 0.57 N - 10 Jul Aug 2013- 2015 Mean - 30.54 STD - 0.56 N - 12

2 7 2 7 2 7

Change detection- subtraction of Jul- Aug 2013-2015 minus Jul-Aug 1984- 1992.

Pe lta a nd Chudno vsky 2017

y = 0.0326x - 26.523 R² = 0.0265 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

LST (°C)

MODIS LST Average Jul-Aug per Year

y = 0,04x - 45,10 R² = 0,30 29 29,5 30 30,5 31 31,5 32 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Skin Temperatue (°C)

AIRS Skin-Temperature Average Jul- Aug per Year

y = 0,05x - 67,28 R² = 0,13 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

BT (°C)

Landsat BT Average Jul-Aug per Year Trend line Moving average (2 points) Figure 7. Comparison between Landsat BT and two other remote sensing platforms: MODIS LST (middle) and AIRS Skin-Temperature (right) on a temporal scale. Note that although there are natural coherent differences between the platforms, they all agree on the trend direction. Trend line Moving average (2 points) Trend line Moving average (2 points)

Ba ts tra je c to rie s

Temperature

• Surface ALT
• Surface ALT

T e mpe ra ture a t diffe re nt he ig hts

Prior to the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015

 Israel declared its goal of an unconditional economy- wide target of reducing per capita greenhouse gas emissions by 26%, from the levels measured in 2005. to be achieved by 2030: a 17% reduction in electricity consumption; the generation of 17% of consumed electricity from renewable energy sources; and a 20% reduction in transportation emissions. In 2016, the Israeli government approved a national plan to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency.

Mitigation

 Prior to the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015, Israel declared its goal of an unconditional economy- wide target of reducing per capita greenhouse gas emissions by 26%, from the levels measured in 2005.  This translates to specific policy targets in various sectors in the economy, to be achieved by 2030: a 17% reduction in electricity consumption; the generation of 17% of consumed electricity from renewable energy sources; and a 20% reduction in transportation emissions. In 2016, the Israeli government approved a national plan to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency.

The National Adaptation Plan for climate change

 Includes specific action plans for various government ministries, was initiated following a binding government resolution in 2009. The plan, which awaits government approval, identifies knowledge gaps regarding climate change in Israel and proposes a wide-ranging research plan to close these gaps.  Following a government-wide consultation process, the plan reviews the impact of climate change and extreme weather events on various sectors in the economy, and suggests sectoral action plans, including the development and implementation of tools and technologies for coping with climate change

Israel Ministry of Environmental Protection (updated November 2017). Climate change adaptation (Hebrew). http://www.sviva.gov.il/subjectsEnv/ClimateChange/AdaptationKnowledge Center/Pages/default.aspx (retrieved November 2017).

Mitigation

 In 2015, the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MoEP) held a national conference on climate change. Representatives from 12 government ministries, academic institutions, nongovernmental organizations, the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS), and the Hydrological Service participated in the event, which focused on plans and strategies for climate change adaptation

Israel Ministry of Environmental Protection (updated November 2017). Climate change adaptation in Israel conference - September 7, 2015 (Hebrew). http://www.sviva.gov.il/subjectsEnv/ClimateChange/ConferencesCC/Pages/ccadaptat ion-conf.aspx (retrieved November 2017).

Mitigation

 The Ministry of Health’s (MoH) preparations for climate change have focused on short-term responses to extreme climatic events (e.g., heat waves, cold waves, and floods). This includes a plan to upgrade the preparation of hospitals and medical systems as part of the emergency system.  The MoH published an infographic on climate change, which includes recommendations for coping with extreme heat waves, with an emphasis on the elderly. The MoH publishes warnings to the public on upcoming heat waves and extreme cold events, with recommendations for the general public and vulnerable populations, including the elderly and individuals with chronic disease.  However, there is still a need for long-term preparations for climate change, including promoting research (with a focus on the implications for public health), improving the accessibility of relevant information to the public, and collection of clinical data, such as incidence and prevalence of climate- change related diseases.

Israel Ministry of Health. Climate change and extreme heat - Infographic (Hebrew). https://www.health.gov.il/Subjects/Environmental_Health/Environmental_contaminan ts/Pages/Heat.aspx (retrieved November 2017).

Major Challe nge s

 Creating a nationwide database on the health implications of climate change remains a major challenge. Data on heat-related morbidity and mortality is required  An assessment of national adaptation to climate change is needed, in particular on the public health impact of factors such as desertification, fires and flooding, and increased reliance on desalinated drinking water.  One of the challenges related to climate change is the lack of specific

• indicators. In 2015, the MoEP hosted two workshops on Climate

Change Adaptation Indicators, including health indicators.  Long-term adaptation to climate change remains a challenge that requires political support, inter-ministerial collaboration, and considerable resources. Bureau of Statistics published in 2017 indicates a sharp increase (5.6%) in the number of private cars purchased in Israel in 2016.

https:/ / www.e hf.o rg .il/ e n/ c lima te _c ha ng e

Who is re spo nsib le in I sra e l?

 Offic e o f the E

nviro nme nta l Pro te c tio n

 Ministry o f He a lth  Munic ipa litie s  Ministry o f E

duc a tio n

 Ministry o f E

nviro nme nt

 I

sra e l Me te o ro lo g ic a l Se rvic e

UHIs have the potential to directly influence the health and welfare of urban residents.

RMSE = 1.50 °C

y = 0,90x + 2,59 R² = 0,91 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 20 30 40 50 AT (°C) predicted AT (°C) measured

Cross-Calibration

1 8 7 2 6 5 4 3

a

17,6 17,8 18,8 25 19,0 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 30/12/2014 AT (°C) Gvaram Negba NirIsrael SdeYoav Model 31,5 29,2 30,6 37,2 30,5 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 15/10/1998 AT (°C) BenGurion BetDagan NetivLH Modiin Model

1

27,7 26,4 25,6 19,7 26,2 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 16/10/2013 AT (°C) BetElieze EinHoresh Elyachin Hamaapil Model 37,6 34,1 37,5 27,2 33,7 20 25 30 35 40 04/05/2014 AT (°C) Holon YadAvner BetDagan TLVSeash

• Model

21,7 20,3 21,3 27,3 20,8 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 22/01/2015 AT (°C) Gvaram Negba NirIsrael SdeYoav Model 27,7 26,4 25,6 19,7 26,2 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 16/10/2013 AT (°C) BetElieze EinHoresh Elyachin Hamaapil Model 21,3 24,8 24,4 32,2 25,1 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 06/11/2009 AT (°C) AshkelonN Gvaram NirIsrael Ashkelon Model

4

37,6 34,1 37,5 27,2 33,7 20 25 30 35 40 04/05/2014 AT (°C) Holon YadAvner BetDagan TLVSeash

• Model

6