Agora Verkehrswende : Transforming Transportation to secure - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Agora Verkehrswende: Transforming Transportation to secure tomorrow‘s mobility.

Draft Presentation, Canada November, 2017 12 Insights into the Verkehrswende Christian Hochfeld Executive Director, Agora Verkehrswende

→ Initiative by Stiftung Mercator and European Climate Foundation → Independent Think Tank and high-level Council of Agora → Project Duration: 2016 – 2018 → Mission: Scenarios, Discourse and Strategies for the Decarbonisation of Transport until 2050 → Focus: starting with national land-based transport in Germany in an European context

Picture: Greenpeace

Who we are.

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Agora Verkehrswende – Transforming Transportation

Policy: → EU-COM; 5 national ministries; main parlimentary groups; 2 federal states; 2 city mayors; 2 Governmental agencies Economy: → BMW; DB; DP-DHL; innogy; Robert Bosch; Siemens; VW; VDV Civil Society & Science: → German Automobile Association; Consumer Association; 3 environmental NGOs; Labor Union; 3 academics The full list of the council members under: www.agora-verkehrswende.de

Picture: Achim Steiner at the Launch of Agora Verkehrswende

The Council is chaired by Achim Steiner, former Under Secretary General of UN and former Executive Director of UNEP.

The Council of Agora Verkehrswende

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How we work.

Source: Agora Verkehrswende

Team of Agora Verkehrswende Council of the Agora

Director Mobility Revolution Central Services Energy Transition in Transport

Impulse Studies, Events etc.

Stakeholder

Impulse

         

Internal exchange with standing members of the Council of Agora Verkehrswende Regular exchange on projects with temporary task forces

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Agora Verkehrswende – Transforming Transportation

Download link: www.agora-verkehrswende.de/12-thesen/

Publication: „12 Insights on Transforming Transportation in Germany “

5 Agora Verkehrswende – Transforming Transportation | ECF Board, 6 June 2017

Transforming the transport sector is crucial for the success of the clean energy transition.

Relative Development of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for different Sectors since 1990

In the past 25 years the Transport Sector in Germany could not contribute to CO2 Emission Reductions.

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For the first time ever the German transport sector has an own ambitious emission reduction target.

Federal Climate Protection Plan 2050: The Verkehrswende is an official goal of the Government.

National Sectoral Climate Protection Goals for 2030

Emission reduction since 1990 and plan for the next 14 years (in mio. tons of CO2)

8 Source: Agora Verkehrswende

Agriculture Industry Transport Building Energy Total

The ‚Verkehrswende 2050‘ will be enabled by the Mobility Revolution and the Energy Transition in Transport.

The Verkehrswende enables the German transport sector to be carbon neutral by 2050. The Mobility Revolution reduces the energy consumption of the German transport sector based on Avoid, Shift and Improve. The Energy Transition in Transport covers the remaining energy demand of the German transport sector with renewable energy.

9 Source: Agora Verkehrswende.

In cities, the mobility transition has already begun.

Agora Network Urban Verkehrswende

Source: Agora Verkehrswende

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• The interlinked public transport is the

backbone of urban transport.

• Private transport becomes more public,

public transport becomes more private.

• Fewer cars leave more space for other

land use.

• Walking and cycling comes with high

benefits for the city at lowest costs.

• Sustainable urban transport policy

receives more political support.

Picture: iStock

The Mobility Transition has already started in cities around the world…

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The Mobility Alliance

Source: Agora Verkehrswende

Public Transport

• Suburban train
• Underground
• Tram
• Bus
• Taxi

Non-motorised Transport

• Bicycle
• Pedestrians

Collaborative Mobility

• Carsharing
• Ridesharing
• Bikesharing

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Autonomous vehicles need collaborative mobility.

Source: OECD-ITF 2016.

Shared Mobility and Penetration of New Technologiesgoes hand in hand!

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Pedestrians and cyclists are a benefit for cities.

The Economist: In China, Bikes are back!

Pictures: The Economist (l.); Christian Hochfeld (r.) 15

Driverless vehicles are ideal for shared use.

Optional Synergies between Automatisation, Collaborative Mobility and Connectivity

Source: Agora Verkehrswende

Trends and Potentials of Digitalisation in Transport

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Usage forms and possible effects of vehicle automatisation

Even a Small Number of Driverless Cars Can Increase Traffic.

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Source: Agora Verkehrswende

Electrification is key to an energy transition in transport.

Renewable energy from sun and wind replaces fossil fuels.

Source: Figure by INFRAS

Options for the ‚post fossil‘ future of transport

Fuel Cell Vehicles with renewably generated Hydrogen

Energy Transition in Transport

Liquid or gaseous Bio Fuels Liquid or Gaseous Power Generated Fuels (PtX) Electromobility (incl. PHEV, REEX and Trolley Trucks)

INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE ALTERNATIVE PROPULSION

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From well to wheel: Transparent LCA of BEV

Source: UBA 2016, Weiterentwicklung und vertiefte Analyse Umweltbilanz von Elektrofahrzeugen

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Battery Electric Vehicles are the Benchmark concerning energy efficiency and costs.

Source: INFRAS/Quantis 2015.

Core options for the Energy Transition in Transportation (until 2050)

LDV

<<<<<<<

BEV as benchmark

HDV

<<<<<<<

Preferential technology open

Bus

<<<<<<<

BEV as benchmark

Aviation

<<<<<<<

Power-to-Liquid as alternative to Biokerosene

Maritime

<<<<<<<

PtX indispensable

Rail

<<<<<<<

Complete electrification

Core options for the Energy Transition in Transport by mode (until 2050)

?

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Accumulated Difference Costs for Technology Options 2050 compared to BAU.

Source: Öko-Institut, INFRAS, DVGW, im Auftrag UBA

The direct use of Electricity in LDV is the option with the lowest cost of decarbonisation for the national economy.

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200 400 600 800

Energiebereitstellung Tankstellen & Ladeinfrastruktur Fahrzeuganschaffung Gesamtsystem

Differenzkosten in Mrd. €

Fl+ E+ CH4+ H2+

Carbon-neutral fuels can supplement electricity from solar and wind.

Process steps for the production of hydrogen, PtG-methane and PtL- fuels from renewable energies

Source: Agora Verkehrswende

Electricity from renewable energies Electrolysis Water RE-methane RE-petrol RE-diesel RE-kerosene Hydrogen H2 Fischer-Tropsch process Methanation

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CO2

Agora Verkehrswende – Transforming Transportation | ECF Board, 6 June 2017

GHG-emissiones related to energy demand in 2020 (Well-to-Wheel)

Source: JRC, EUCAR, CONCAWE (2014b).

Synthetic Fuels could serve as a supplement to electricity from sun and wind – but no alternative.

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Electricity demand from renewable energies for different propulsion and fuel combinations (per 100 km/passenger car)

Battery electric vehicle + direct use of electricity Fuel cell electric vehicle + hydrogen Combustion engine vehicle + “Power-to-Gas” Combustion engine vehicle + “Power-to-Liquid”

27 Source: own calculation and illustration, DLR, Ifeu, LBST, DFZ (2015), p. 15

Source: Agora Verkehrswende.

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Comparison of Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of BEV and ICE (with imported PtX) in 2030 (same CO2- Emissions).

Future Battery Electric Vehicles will be cheaper than ICE Vehicles fueled by PtX.

vehicle costs fixed costs

• ther costs

energy costs

The freight sector needs an improved rail system and carbon-neutral roads.

Maximum potential in Germany to shift freight transport from road to rail.

The decarbonisation of freight transport requires more cooperation between rail and (decarbonised) trucks!

Rail Road River

Billion ton kilometres

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Reference scenario Reference scenario

Source: IFEU/INFRAS/LBST 2016.

Power supply and transport benefit from sector coupling.

Source: BMW Navigation Systems in Europe

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‚Potential Difference‘: Overview AC & DC Charging Points in Europe

Rethinking the development and Financing of transport infrastructure.

The transport transformation will be Driven by its benefits to society.

Transport demand according to ‚Verkehrsverflechtungsprognose‘ 2030:

• +10% in passenger transport 2010-2030
• +38% in freight transport 2010-2030

CO2-Emissions:

• 9% für total transport in DE 1990-2030
• Gap to target of German „Climate Action

Plan 2050“ for year 2030 ~ 50 Mio. t

Business-As-Usual-Scenario: ‚Projektionsbericht‘ German Government 2017 (with measures)

Source: Projektionsbericht der Bundesregierung 2017

GHG-emissions from transport in Germany

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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt CO2e

Anmerkung: Werte gelten für das sogenannte Mit-Maßnahmen-Szenario (MMS)

Target KSP

• Sz. A
• Sz. B
• Sz. C
• Sz. D

Ambition level

Efficiency & Emob (EU)

• rel. low

Fiscal (National)

• rel. low

Fuels Up to 32%

Basics for defining the Agora Scenarios

• All scenarios should meet the target of

Climate Action Plan 2050.

• Scenario A-C: biofuels share and limit values

are pre-defined, national measures are an addition to meet the (national) target

• Scenario D: limit values and national

measures remain at a low level, biofuels share has to be increased to the point where a reduction of 40% is possible.

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increasing increasing at 7 % = focus of scenario

• Very ambitious EU efficiency targets:
• cars: 60 g/km (WLTP) in 2025 und 30g/km (WLTP) in 2030 + limiting Real world gap to 15% as of 2021.
• trucks: introduction limit values in 2020, then ~ 4,1% p.a.
• In addtion: complementary national measures to promote electric vehicles (more charging infrastructure, bonus-malus

scheme)

• Supplementary fiscal instruments
• Energy taxes: taxing diesel and petrol fuel at the same level by 2024. Combined with reduced Kfz-Steuer for diesel. Increase

in energy tax 2024 to 2028 about 10 cent in total (would result in km cost Diesel: +35%; Benzin: +22%)

• Extendeing HDV toll to all roads as of 2025
• Company car tax: distance-dependent element
• Aditional national support measures:
• Cycling support with additional 600 Mio. Euro p.a. (7,50 Euro pro EW)
• Public transport support (ÖV) until 2025. 10% increase in supply

Measures in detail Scenario A

Focus of Scen A are EU efficiency measures and electric mobility

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Scen A focusses on very high efficiency and direct electrification and is influenced by aspirative OEM goals

Results Scenario A: Technology mix for new cars

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2025 BEV: 19% NZL PHEV: 34% NZL 2030 BEV: 49% NZL (14% im Bestand) PHEV: 33% NZL (19% im Bestand)

Results Scen A: Energy demand

• Electricty demand of tranport quaduples – to

roughly 50 TWh in 2030

• Total energy demand is reduced by 30%

compared to 2015

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Scen A reaches the German climate targets for transport by 2030.

Results Scenario A: Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 2030

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Reduction versus 1990 ca. 41%

Estimate of GHG-reduction in Mio. t compared to 1990.

Results Scen A: reduction potential of individual measures

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• Less ambitious EU efficiency standards:
• cars: no limit value 2025, for 2030 reduction of 20% compared to 2021 => 99 g CO2 (WLTP), no limit Real World

Gap, real reductions therefor only about 10%

• trucks: introduction 2025, ~ 2,5% p.a. efficiency increase
• Main fiscal Instruments
• Energy tax: adjusting diesel and petrol tax
• Car toll: ca. 10 ct (4 ct. Infrastructure plus environmental cost)
• Truck toll: including external costs (ca. 17 ct/km)
• Company car tax: distance-based
• Speed limit 120 km/h on highways as of 2021

Measures in detail Scenario C - 1

Scenario C focusses mainly on (national) fiscal instruments

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• Freight Transport: Increased shift to Rail (23% of Modal Split in 2030)
• Further national Stimulant Measures:
• Cycling: 800 Mio. Euro p.a. (10 Euro per EW)
• Public Transport: 25% increase in supply
• „Liveable Cities“: Parking, Tempo 30, Carsharing etc.

Measures in detail Scenario C - 2

Scenario C focusses mainly on (national) fiscal instruments

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Results Scenario C: Technology mix for new cars

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2025 Batterie: 6% NZL Plug-In: 13% NZL 2030 Batterie: 8% NZL (4,6% im Bestand) Plug-In: 13% NZL (9% im Bestand)

Gap to target of about 10 Mio. t

Results Scenario C: Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 2030

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Reduction versus 1990 ca. 34%

Estimate of GHG-reduction in Mio. t compared to 1990.

Results Szenario C: reduction potential of individual measures

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• Low ambition level on efficiency and national measures affecting transport demand (i.e. like business

as usual (BAU))

• Reduction is achieved almost completely via power-to-X (PtX) fuels
• This means in 2030: in total 32% alternative fuels (7% biofuel and 25% PtX fuel)
• Fuel cost almost twice as high as in business as usual
• Higher production cost for decarbonised fuel is paid for by user

Measures in detail Scenario D

Scenario D focusses mainly on climate protection via alternative fuels

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Additional electricity demand for transport until 2030 comparing scenarios A, C and D

• an energy conversion effficiency of 40% for

the production of power-to-X fuel results in an additional energy demand of about 350 TWh (for Germany) in Scenario D ein

• It is practically impossible to imagine, that

this energy demand until 2030 can be met with renewable energy in Germany

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Results from Sceanario Assessment: Final Energy Demand 2030

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Results from Scenario Assessment: Technology-Mix in LDV stock

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• The ambitious climate protection targets from KSP for transport in Germany until

2030 can be achieved - in different ways.

• A complex combination of measures on different level (EU, Germany, Federal

States, Municipalities and Companies) in needed, which indicates the strong need for coordination.

• Even with very ambitious EU CO2 regulation for LDV and early introduction of CO2

regulations for HDV additional (fiscal) measures are needed to fulfil the targets.

Draft Conclusions - 1

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• To reach the clmate protection targets of KSP ambitiouos European CO2 regulation

(Well-To-Tank!) is needed already 2025, that the continuous increase of efficiency

• f electric vehicles impacts the vehicle stock significantly.
• If the design of the European CO2 regulation is not ambitious enough the targets
• f KSP can not be met – neither with ambitious national fiscal instruments which

could be acceptable. It is assumed that this would also be the case for many other European countries.

• Low ambition of European CO2 regulaton could lead to disintegration of the single

market!

• The strategy to reach the climate targets primarily by (imported) low-carbon

synthetic fuels (PtX) would be related to various risk!

• All ambitious climate protection strategies in the transport sector would need a

significant extension of renewables in electricity through appropiate regulation.

Draft Conclusions - 2

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Thank you very much for your attention!

Anna-Louisa-Karsch Str. 2 | D-10178 Berlin T +49 (0)30 700 1435 300 | F +49 (0)30 700 1435 129 M info@agora-verkehrswende.de

Agora Verkehrswende is a joint initiative of Stiftung Mercator Foundation and the European Climate Foundation (ECF).

Comments or Questions? – Please do not hesitate to contact me: christian.hochfeld@agora-verkehrswende.de