AGLF: Pension Update Todd Tauzer Director, Municipal Pensions - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AGLF: Pension Update

May 4, 2018

Todd Tauzer Director, Municipal Pensions State and Local Governments

S&P Global Local Ratings Pension Approach

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Direct Assessment

• Funded Ratio and Assumptions

Large Obligation

• Contribution practice
• ADC strength (consider amortization, payroll, etc.)

Potential for Accelerating Payments

• Pension/OPEB Cost as % of Total Gov Fund Expenses
• Influence from assumptions and methods

Budget Stress

Further Implications

Management Budgetary Flexibility Budgetary Performance Institutional Framework

• Assumed rate of return vs. actual performance
• Amortization method
• Ratio of actives to beneficiaries
• Frequency of updates to experience studies
• Cash flow assumptions underlying GASB plan

asset depletion projections

S&P Global State Ratings Pension Approach

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Actuarial Funding History Plan Funding Progress

Source: S&P Global Ratings U.S. State Pensions: Funded Ratios Declined Again in 2016, October 18, 2017

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Pension Survey Funded Ratios

State Trends: Ranked Funded Status

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Fiscal

2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 Wisconsin 98.2% 102.7% 104.6% 99.9% 99.9% South Dakota 96.9% 104.1% 107.3% 99.9% 92.6% New York 93.6% 98.1% 102.3% 88.3% 88.2% Tennessee 88.0% 91.3% 95.1% 93.6% 91.5% North Carolina 87.2% 94.6% 98.2% 96.0% 95.4%

… … … … … …

Hawaii 51.3% 62.4% 63.9% 60.0% 59.2% Connecticut 41.4% 49.4% 50.5% 49.1% 49.1% Illinois 35.6% 40.2% 41.4% 39.3% 40.4% Kentucky 31.4% 37.7% 40.7% 47.7% 49.9% New Jersey 30.9% 37.8% 42.5% 63.5% 64.5% Source: S&P Global Ratings 50-state annual reports

Fiscal years 2014-2016: reflects aggregate funded ratio across plans as of state fiscal year using GASB 67 plan reporting. 2012-2013 reflects aggregate funded ratios as of plan valuation date under GASB 25 reporting.

State Trends: Funded Status on the Move

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Fiscal

2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 West Virginia 71.9% 76.9% 77.6% 67.2% 63.2% Ohio 73.5% 78.8% 74.7% 73.3% 65.1% Kansas 65.1% 65.2% 66.8% 59.9% 56.4% Oklahoma 72.6% 80.3% 82.5% 66.5% 64.9% Montana 71.2% 74.5% 76.0% 73.3% 63.9%

… … … … … …

Pennsylvania 52.8% 57.6% 60.2% 62.3% 63.9% Missouri 60.0% 66.9% 72.1% 76.6% 78.0% Kentucky 31.4% 37.7% 40.7% 47.7% 49.9% Minnesota 52.1% 78.4% 80.7% 74.7% 75.0% New Jersey 30.9% 37.8% 42.5% 63.5% 64.5% Source: S&P Global Ratings 50-state annual reports

Fiscal years 2014-2016: reflects aggregate funded ratio across plans as of state fiscal year using GASB 67 plan reporting. 2012-2013 reflects aggregate funded ratios as of plan valuation date under GASB 25 reporting.

Combined Medicaid, Debt Service, And Pension And OPEB Contributions Share Of General Fund Expenditures

7 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Oklahoma Pennsylvania Rhode Island Illinois Connecticut Maryland Vermont Virginia New Hampshire Hawaii Delaware Missouri Kentucky Arkansas Kansas Georgia New Jersey Maine North Carolina South Dakota Louisiana Florida Idaho Alabama California South Carolina Massachusetts Colorado Iowa Wisconsin Minnesota West Virginia Montana Tennessee Alaska North Dakota Washington Indiana Arizona Nevada Ohio New York Texas Michigan Mississippi Nebraska New Mexico Wyoming Oregon Utah GF-Medicaid Exp % of Operating Expenditures Actual OPEB Payment as a % of Operating Expenditures Debt service as a % of Operating Expenditures Pension Contributions as a % of Operating Expenditures

Sources: State budget information and NASBO Expenditure reports

U.S. State Pension Plan Funding Progress

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Source: S&P Global Ratings U.S. State Pensions: Funded Ratios Declined Again in 2016, October 18, 2017

In our view, states that consistently fund full required contributions on an actuarial basis and use conservative assumptions and methods are more likely to effectively manage their pension liabilities and the associated long-term budgetary costs than states that do not.

Blue: Pension contributions are actuarially based and usually meet or exceed required levels Red: Pension contributions do not have an actuarial basis or are not usually fully funded

Investment Risk in U.S. State Pension Plans

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Risky Investments Proportion of portfolio allocation among equity and alternative investments

• averaged 68% as of 2015
• grew by more than 8% compared

to five years earlier

Data from reported plan investment allocations between 2010 and 2015 found on the Public Plans Data website maintained by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College or from plan reports.

• Plans Increase Riskier Investment Allocation to Meet Return Targets

Source: S&P Global Ratings U.S. State Pensions: Weak Market Returns Will Contribute To Rise In Expense, September 12, 2016

Looking ahead

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Despite improved market returns in 2017, continued changes to plan assumptions Pressure on required contributions and budgets Increase in reform efforts and creative solutions Testing legal boundaries for change

Comparison: California and Illinois

Source: S&P Global Ratings For California, The Road To Fiscal Recovery; For Illinois, The Road Not Taken, April 19, 2018

General Fund Total Fund Balance Share of Expenditures

Comparison: California and Illinois

Source: S&P Global Ratings For California, The Road To Fiscal Recovery; For Illinois, The Road Not Taken, April 19, 2018

Pension Path

S&P Global: Select Pension/OPEB Publications

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“Pension Pressures Will Weigh On 15 Largest U.S. Cities' Budgets” March 8, 2017 “Dallas And Houston Start To Address Pension Liabilities, But Substantial Work Remains” February 9, 2017 "Rising OPEB Liabilities For The 15 Largest U.S. Cities Could Strain Budgets And Pose Credit Risks" October 10, 2017 “Jacksonville Adopts Pension Reform, But The Ultimate Impact On Credit Quality Remains Uncertain” May 24, 2017 “Dallas Pension Reforms Cemented via State Legislature Vote” June 1, 2017 “Local Government Pension And Other Postemployment Benefits Analysis: A Closer Look” November 8, 2017 “U.S. State Retiree Medical and Other Postemployment Benefit Liabilities Keep Rising” October 18, 2017 “New GASB Statements 74 And 75 Provide Transparency For Assessing Budgetary Stress on U.S. State & Local Government OPEBs” March 14, 2018

As of April 2018

“U.S. State Pensions: Funded Ratios Declined Again in 2016” October 18, 2017 “For the Five Highest-Funded U.S. State Pension Plans Being Proactive Keeps Liabilities Manageable” Oct. 24, 2017 “Pension Obligation Bonds Credit Impact On U.S. Local Government Issuers” December 6, 2017 “Recent U.S. State Pension Reform: Balancing Long-Term Strategy and Budget Reality” February 9, 2018 “U.S. Not-For-Profit Health Care Pensions: 2017 Funded Ratios Benefit From Robust Returns” March 28, 2018 “Pension Pressures Are Likely To Weigh On Illinois Municipal Credit Quality” February 22, 2018 “For California, The Road To Recovery: For Illinois, The Road Not Taken” April 19, 2018