BEAM | Q2-2018 / Q3-2018 Performance Review
November 1, 2018
8888 University Drive | Burnaby | British Columbia | Canada | www.beedie.sfu.ca/beam
Agenda Jas Gill I. Executive Summary Portfolio Manager Blake - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
BEAM | Q2-2018 / Q3-2018 Performance Review November 1, 2018 8888 University Drive | Burnaby | British Columbia | Canada | www.beedie.sfu.ca/beam Agenda Jas Gill I. Executive Summary Portfolio Manager Blake Coombes II. Equity Update
8888 University Drive | Burnaby | British Columbia | Canada | www.beedie.sfu.ca/beam
Portfolio Manager
Analyst, Utilities
Analyst, Fixed Income
Portfolio Manager
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2014-15
4th Cohort
2015-16
5th Cohort
2013-14
3rd Cohort
Feb 2012
1st Cohort
2011-12
Founding Cohort
Jan 2012
BEAM Inception Received C$3 mm IC
2012-13
2nd Cohort
2017-18
7th Cohort
2016-17
6th Cohort
2018-19
8th Cohort
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Publishable research: Industry/sector analysis Credit analysis Company valuation
Portfolio management Risk management Performance measurement Ethics
BEAM Open Meeting Lecture Presentations & Campus Promotion Application Deadlines Interviewing & Hiring New Cohort Training & Integration
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(2.00%) (1.75%) (1.50%) (1.25%) (1.00%) (0.75%) (0.50%) (0.25%) 0.00% Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 (6.00%) (5.00%) (4.00%) (3.00%) (2.00%) (1.00%) 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% Portfolio Benchmark
(0.86%) 0.79%
Source: Bloomberg Note: As of September 28, 2018.
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60% 39% 1% 60% 38% 2% Equity Fixed Income Cash Current Benchmark
Source: Bloomberg Note: As of September 28, 2018.
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1.38% (1.18%)
(3.50%) (3.00%) (2.50%) (2.00%) (1.50%) (1.00%) (0.50%) 0.00% Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 (10.00%) (8.00%) (6.00%) (4.00%) (2.00%) 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% Portfolio Benchmark Source: Bloomberg Note: As of September 28, 2018.
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Source: Bloomberg Note: As of September 28, 2018.
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Source: Bloomberg Note: As of September 28, 2018. Note: Telecommunication Services has been changed to Communication Services.
0.20% (0.72%) 0.01% (0.77%) 0.14% (0.48%) (0.14%) (0.05%) (0.08%) (0.26%) (0.47%) (1.00%) (0.80%) (0.60%) (0.40%) (0.20%) 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% Financials Energy Materials Industrials Communication Services Consumer Staples Information Technology Consumer Discretionary Utilities Real Estate Health Care
0.59% 0.29% 0.26% 0.20% 0.15% (0.18%) (0.23%) (0.28%) (0.30%) (0.34%) (1.00%) (0.50%) 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% (0.76%) (0.42%) (0.34%) (0.34%) (0.27%) 0.09% 0.10% 0.14% 0.17% 0.18% (1.00%) (0.50%) 0.00% 0.50% 1.00%
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Underperformed Outperformed Overweight Underweight
Source: Bloomberg Note: Excludes TRP and ATD.B as we were both overweight and underweight at different points in the year. Note: As of September 28, 2018.
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Source: Bloomberg Note: Holdings as of September 28, 2018.
slowing mortgage growth
margin expansion
caused a devaluation of Manulife
continue to support quality EPS growth
AUM over the coming years
TD 21% RY 14% MFC 13% CM 12% BAM 11% NA 8% IFC 7% XFN 7% TCN 6%
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Source: Bloomberg Note: Holdings as of September 28, 2018.
approval has affected WCSB producers, as takeaway issues have caused WTI / WCS spreads to blow out
from Asian markets, has driven prices higher
headwind for high-yielding dividend stocks
integrated business model
SU 27% CNQ 20% TRP 20% WCP 13% CU 8% CCO 6% AAV 6%
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Source: Bloomberg Note: Holdings as of September 28, 2018.
a rebound in pricing and performance during Q2/Q3
USMCA bodes well for industrials, though steel and aluminum tariffs persist
performance coupled with a favourable implied valuation
spending plan
CNR 59% STN 21% FTT 20%
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Source: Bloomberg Note: Holdings as of September 28, 2018.
escalation in the U.S. – China trade tensions made investors concerned about global growth prospects
strong U.S. dollar, and weak emerging markets
growth scenario
FM 24% FNV 21% NTR 20% ITP 19% WPM 16%
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Source: Bloomberg Note: Holdings as of September 28, 2018.
reform, minimum wage increases and uncertainty around tariffs
ARPU and regulation continue to be headwinds for telecoms
cybersecurity
GIB.A 22% T 21% SAP 16% GIL 12% CGX 11% L 10% SIA 8%
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(0.36%) (0.52%)
(0.35%) (0.30%) (0.25%) (0.20%) (0.15%) (0.10%) (0.05%) 0.00% 0.05% Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 (2.50%) (2.00%) (1.50%) (1.00%) (0.50%) 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% Portfolio Benchmark Source: Bloomberg Note: As of September 28, 2018.
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Source: Bloomberg Note: As of September 28, 2018.
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(0.40%) (0.20%) 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 6 Months 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 20Y 30Y
Total Curve Change Curve Carry Total Allocation Selection Excess
Curve Change Curve Carry Total (0.10%) (0.08%) (0.06%) (0.04%) (0.02%) 0.00% Curve Return
Source: Bloomberg Note: As of September 28, 2018.
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(1)
(1)
Source: Bloomberg Note: As of September 28, 2018. (1) Active duration and active yield include ETF exposure in both the benchmark and the portfolio.
Federal 17% Municipal 4% Provincial 42% Corporate 31% ETF 6% BBB, 9% A, 31% AA, 40% AAA, 21%
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(1.2) (0.6) 0.0 0.6 1.2 Short Term Medium Term Long Term Federal Provincial Municipal Corporate
Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock Note: As of September 28, 2018. Note: Contribution to duration and active weights do not include ETF exposure in both the benchmark and the portfolio.
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the market expects three before 2020
inflation expectations - and thus longer-dated yields - to push upwards
misplaced; yield curve steepening will begin after midterm elections
the Bank of Canada’s conservative path going forward
2020 seems to be the most likely path
Source: Bloomberg
1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 1Y 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y October 1, 2018 April 1, 2019
3M 1.55% 2.05% 6M 1.77% 2.26% 1Y 2.04% 2.55% 2Y 2.27% 2.79% 3Y 2.33% 2.89% 5Y 2.40% 3.02% 7Y 2.45% 3.07% 10Y 2.49% 3.11% 20Y 2.50% 3.14% 30Y 2.48% 3.14% Date Current Projected
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bonds to decrease risk and provide greater liquidity
to take advantage of potential steepening and allow for maneuverability of future duration shifting
province, allowing for quick entry / exit if necessary
yield
move into when value is present
corporate credit options
minimize trade costs
potential to shift out the duration
duration while maintaining low trading costs
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CY2018 Performance Review: February 2018
$6.69MM $6.61MM
corporate names
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Source: Bloomberg
Strategy Moving Forward
discount to intrinsic value
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Source: CIBC Mellon
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Source: CIBC Mellon
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Source: CIBC Mellon
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Source: CIBC Mellon
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Source: CIBC Mellon
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Source: CIBC Mellon
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Source: CIBC Mellon
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Source: CIBC Mellon