Agenda Item H.8.a Supplemental GMT Presentation 2 November 2019 Agenda Item H.8.a. Supplemental GMT Report 2 RCAs, Allocations, and Harvest Guidelines 1
Action Item # 2: RCA Coordinate Updates ● Only considering minor adjustments now ● Non-trawl RCA and CCA stand-alone item slated for March ● Support better aligning 40-fm non-trawl RCA off CA 2
Action Item # 4: ACTs Cowcod S of 40°10' ACT preferred means to manage stocks • For precaution and flexibility • Goal of ACL (P*0.40) support the ACT long-term • Consider a range for analysis (eg. 40-60 mt) 3
Action Item # 4: ACTs Shortbelly rockfish • PPA is 3,000 mt ACL • Oceana proposed lower ACT • Triggers mitigation at 500 mt • But no effective mitigation tools • Bycatch widespread in space and time • BRAs available, but not surgical enough • Voluntary whiting coop actions • ACLs increase incentive 4
Action Item # 5: HGs for stocks within a complex Oregon black/blue/deacon complex Oregon cabezon/kelp greenling complex • Newly created complexes for 2019-20 • Concerns over “inflators” • Could could set HGs at component ACLs • But unnecessary - already done via state allocations • GMT does not recommend HGs 5
Action Item # 5: HGs for stocks in complex Blackgill rockfish / Southern Slope 5 related tasks to meet these goals: • Considered removing blackgill from complex (A-26) • Better ability to manage to ACL for IFQ with blackgill QP • Stock of concern: low productivity, precautionary zone • $ benefit for non-trawl: if shift blackgill allocation % • $ benefit for trawl: shift allocation % other slope • But Council rescinded A-26 and kept blackgill in complex • Reduces constraints for IFQ • But everyone agreed on other A-26 goals • Challenging when left in • “GMT: find a creative solution for 2021-22” 6
Action Item # 5: HGs for stocks in complex Blackgill Task 1: Set an HG for blackgill = component ACL • Creates management target for conservation Blackgill Task 2: Establish trawl / non-trawl shares of blackgill • Use FPA % from rescinded A-26 • As main goal more to non-trawl Sector 2021 2022 HG 176.5 174.0 Trawl share (41%) 72.4 71.4 Non-trawl share (59%) 104.2 102.7 7
Action Item # 5: HGs for stocks in complex Blackgill Task 3: Set trip limits to keep non-trawl to their share • Increases to trip limits proposed in Report 3 Blackgill Task 4: New method to keep IFQ to their share • QP main IFQ tool, but may not work: • Easy had blackgill been removed -> Blackgill QP • But a challenge since kept in -> Slope QP • Problem: Slope QP can exceed BG harvest goals • So GMT proposes low blackgill trip limit for IFQ • IFQ trip limits used elsewhere • Early indications OK from General Counsel • Effective to reduce blackgill mortality as is targeted • Trip limit set inseason if approach IFQ share 8
Blackgill Task 5: Change hard-wired A-21 slope allocations • Now to A-26 goal of more “other slope” to IFQ • Removing blackgill would’ve created “other slope” complex • FPA was to raise IFQ to 91% since trawl dominant spp. • Keeping blackgill in complex creates “other slope” challenge Can still meet both A-26 goals • • Part A: Divided up blackgill • Part B: Now divide up “other” non-blackgill species “Other”ACL Range 2011-2018 2021 share (mt) 2022 share (mt) Contributions mort. (mt) Trawl Non-trawl Trawl Non-trawl 2021 2022 Trawl Non-trawl (91%) (9%) (91%) (9%) 532.5 531.0 484.5 47.9 483.2 47.8 36 - 60 4 - 14 9
Blackgill Task 5: Change hard-wired A-21 slope allocations • Now just need to sum both parts • While accounting for off-the-tops • Need to amend FMP (drop A-21 slope) • And make two-year allocation stock • Can’t just use a fixed % • Need to recompute #s each cycle 2021 2022 Category Traw (mt) Non-trawl (mt) Trawl (mt) Non-trawl (mt) 72.4 104.2 71.4 102.7 Blackgill share Other slope share 484.5 47.9 483.2 47.8 Total share 556.9 152.1 554.5 150.5 % of total share 78.3% 21.7% 78.4% 21.6% 39.0 39.0 Total combined off-top Apportioned off-top 30.6 8.4 30.6 8.3 526.3 143.7 523.9 142.2 Final two year allocation 10
Action Item # 6: Two-year trawl / non-trawl allocations GMT recommends only analyzing No Action for: Stock Trawl Proportion Non-trawl Proportion Yelloweye RF 8% 92% Big skate 95% 5% Longnose skate 90% 10% Shelf RF N 40°10’ 60.2% 39.8% Shelf RF S 40°10’ 12.2% 87.8% Bocaccio S 40°10’ 39% 61% Cowcod S 40°10’ 36% 64% 11
Action Item # 6: Two-year trawl / non-trawl allocations Canary RF: Sector Fixed • Impacted by all sectors Amount • Two-year allocations a main focus of 2017-2018 cycle (mt) • How to allocate large ACL gains with stock rebuilt? Catcher- 16 • Council adopted following bottom-up approach: Processor #1: Fixed amounts for “needs” of non-trawl sectors #2: Fixed amounts for at-sea bycatch (hard-cap species then) Mothership 30 #3: Remainder to IFQ: reduce constraints with more prolific targets Non-nearshore 46.5 • Council adopted different approach in 2019-20 Nearshore 100 • Uses %’s for each (but fixed for at-sea) = SQ WA Rec 50 • Non-trawl dropped below fixed amounts from 2017-18 • As all absorbed declines with ACL OR Rec 75 CA Rec 135 12
Action Item # 6: Two-year trawl / non-trawl allocations Adjusting the canary at-sea set-aside as part of the two-year allocation process • Used to be sector-specific hardcap allocations • Now: Sector-specific set-asides • 16 mt CP • 30 mt MS • GMT proposal: NEW single 10 mt set-aside • Covers historical bycatch and splits no longer needed Historical Total Mortality in the at-sea sectors (mt) YEAR 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CP 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 2.1 0.9 MS 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 4.5 4.7 TOTAL 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.5 6.6 5.5 13
Action Item # 6: Two-year trawl / non-trawl allocations Option 2: Option 3: Option 1: Canary: Two Alts Fixed Non-trawl 2017-2018 Fix non-trawl + SQ and at-sea avg. (mt) (mt) reduce at-sea (mt) (mt) Option 1: • Maintain status quo (fixed percentages) Year 2021 2021 2021 • Non-trawl below fixed amounts ACL 1,338 1,338 1,338 Off-the-top 66 66 66 Option 2: Fishery HG 1,272 1,272 1,272 • Keep non-trawl at 2017-18 fixed amounts Trawl Allocation 919.3 865 865 • IFQ absorbs full ACL reduction (trawl %) 72.3% 68.0% 68.0% • -54 mt IFQ allocation in 2021 --IFQ 873 819 855 343 --CP 16 16 1 Option 3: 10 --MS 30 30 5 • Reduce at-sea to 10 mt set-aside • Covers their bycatch Non-trawl 352.2 406.5 406.5 • No longer hard-caps (non-trawl %) 27.7% 32.0% 32.0% • +36 mt extra to shift to IFQ --Non-nearshore 40.2 46.5 46.5 5 (11.4%) --Nearshore (24.6%) 86.6 100 100 8 --WA Rec (12.3%) 43.3 50 50 5 --OR Rec (18.5%) 65.2 75 75 33 14 116.9 --CA Rec (33.2%) 135 135 72
Action Item # 7: Change A-21 hard-wired trawl / non- trawl allocations to two-year allocations? • Analyzed in 2017 intersector review process • Council postponed - can do now 2021 2022 Blackgill / Southern Slope Category Trawl Non-trawl Trawl Non-trawl (mt) (mt) (mt) (mt) • A-21 allocations Blackgill share 72.4 104.2 71.4 102.7 • 63% Trawl • 37% Non-trawl Other slope share 484.5 47.9 483.2 47.8 • Recommend the new Total share 556.9 152.1 554.5 150.5 custom approach % of total share 78.3% 21.7% 78.4% 21.6% Total combined off-top 39.0 39.0 Apportioned off-top 30.6 8.4 30.6 8.3 15 526.3 143.7 523.9 142.2 Final two year allocation
Action Item # 7: Change A-21 hard-wired trawl / non- trawl allocations to two-year allocations? Lingcod S 40°10’ GMT recommendations: • Currently A-21: #1: Change to two-year allocations • 45% trawl #2: Consider raising non-trawl % • 55% non-trawl • Alt 1 = 57% • Non-trawl constrained • Alt 2 up to 75% (bookend) • Low trawl attainment Fishery Trawl Non-Trawl ACL Trawl Hist Non-Trawl Year HG Alloc. % attain. Hist Mort. % attain. (mt) Mort. (mt) Alloc. (55%) (mt) (45%) (mt) 2021 1,102 1091 491 600 7.3 - 51.5 1- 10% 352.3 - 828 31 - 161% 2022 1,172 1161 522.5 638.5 16
Action Item # 7: Change A-21 hard-wired trawl / non- trawl allocations to two-year allocations? Other stocks? • GMT suggested lingcod South of 40’10 during intersector review • But little benefit for revising other stocks • Council tasked the GMT to revisit this in the 2021-2022 Management Measures • Again, GMT sees minimal benefit for others (but we can analyze requests if desired) 17
Action Item # 8 • This action item is no longer needed as NMFS is in the process of converting the former allocations to set-asides through Amendment 21-3. 18
Action Item # 9: At-sea set-asides ACL Off-top-deductions Fishery HG Non-trawl Trawl Objectives #1) Prevent ACL overages At-sea set-asides • Accommodate expected at-sea bycatch #2) Trade-offs • Too high at-sea = strands IFQ $ target IFQ • Too low at-sea = avoidance $ costs 19 • Too low at-sea = potential risk to ACL
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