AFRICA TO 2030 AND BEYOND African Futures Project December 9, 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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@ISSAfrica @PardeeCenterIFs

AFRICA TO 2030 AND BEYOND

African Futures Project December 9, 2016

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African Futures Project, Institute for Security Studies & Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures

@ISSAfrica @PardeeCenterIFs

PREVIOUS SDG PAPERS FROM THE ISS

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INTERNATIONAL FUTURES IS A TOOL FOR… Exploring past trends, and the path we’re currently on Understanding how human, social, and environmental systems interact

• ver time

Shaping the way we think about and address major issues facing human development today

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SUB-MODULES IN IFS

Demographics Education Economics Health Infrastructure Energy Agriculture Environment Technology Governance Finance International Politics

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IFS MAJOR SUB-MODULES

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INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS)

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2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

‘…a plan of action for people, planet and prosperity’

THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

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Source: UN General Assembly, Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 2015, Resolution 70/1, New York: UN General Assembly, 25 September 2015. Image source:

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DEFINING EXTREME POVERTY “A condition of life so characterised by malnutrition, illiteracy and disease as to be beneath any reasonable definition of human decency.” World Bank

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GLOBAL POVERTY FORECAST

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percentage of the population East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

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GLOBAL POVERTY: HISTORY AND FORECAST

0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 Billions of people Africa Rest of World

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GLOBAL POVERTY FORECAST

Source: IFs v 7.26 initialized from World Bank data

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Millions of people Africa Rest of World

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COUNTRY GROUPS BASED ON POVERTY LEVELS IN 2016

• The majority of poverty is isolated in

high poverty countries

• So, what is driving this increase in

the absolute numbers of people living below the poverty line in Africa….

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GLOBAL POPULATION BY REGION: HISTORY AND FORECAST

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Billions of people Asia Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA North America Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa’s population has grown from 8% of the global total in 1960, to l3.5% today and is forecast to grow to 17% by 2030

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WASH Indicators

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SDG 6 – Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all

WASH & SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Target 6.1 - By 2030, achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all Target 6.2 - By 2030, achieve access to adequate and equitable sanitation and hygiene for all and end open defecation, paying special attention to the needs of women and girls and those in vulnerable situations

Source: UN General Assembly, Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 2015, Resolution 70/1, New York: UN General Assembly, 25 September 2015.

@ISSAfrica @PardeeCenterIFs

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ACCESS TO IMPROVED DRINKING WATER BY REGION: HISTORY AND FORECAST

40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percentage access to clean water East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

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ACCESS TO IMPROVED SANITATION BY REGION: HISTORY AND FORECAST

15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 Percentage access to improved sanitation facilities East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

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Health Indicators

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SDG 3 – ‘Ensure healthy lives and promote well- being for all at all ages’

HEALTH GOALS OF SDGS

Target 3.3 - By 2030, end the epidemics of AIDS,

tuberculosis, malaria and neglected tropical diseases and combat hepatitis, water-borne diseases and other communicable diseases

Target 3.4 - By 2030, reduce by one third premature

mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being

Source: UN General Assembly, Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 2015, Resolution 70/1, New York: UN General Assembly, 25 September 2015.

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COMMUNICABLE DISEASE DEATH RATES BY REGION

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia MENA Latin America & Caribbean East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Deaths per thousand 2015 2030

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BREAKDOWN OF AIDS DEATHS BY REGION IN 2016

East Asia & Pacific 14% Europe & Central Asia 10% Latin America & Caribbean 4% MENA 1% North America 2% South Asia 2%

Sub-Saharan Africa 67%

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BREAKDOWN OF MALARIA DEATHS BY REGION IN 2016

East Asia & Pacific 3% Latin America & Caribbean 0% MENA 0% South Asia 4%

Sub-Saharan Africa 93% Europe and North America were excluded from this visual

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HEALTH TARGETS: CURRENT PATH

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The Current Path scenario reveals that only a handful of countries are forecast to achieve SDG 3.3 …While no African country is forecast to reach SDG 3.4

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LIFE EXPECTANCY BY REGION: HISTORY AND FORECAST

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

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Governance

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GOVERNANCE TRIANGLE

0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Security Capacity Inclusion

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GOVERNANCE BY REGION: HISTORY AND FORECAST

1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA North America South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

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RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GDP PER CAPITA AND EFFECTIVE GOVERNANCE

y = 0,6743ln(x) + 0,9435 R² = 0,66795 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

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Scenarios

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SCENARIOS

• Without significant interventions, many of the SDG targets are out of reach for all but a few African

countries

• However, if Africa is able to implement policies capably, it can expect substantial benefits to human

development…

• To explore those potential benefits, we developed scenarios for these papers that analyze the

impact on Africa’s future of achieving certain SDG targets

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FINDINGS

• Achieving universal WASH access will cost more than US$ 120 billion, but will increase overall

GDP in Africa by more than US$ 500 billion by 2030 and provides other significant benefits, notably in health outcomes

• However, even a less aggressive push for WASH could yield about 50% of the benefits for

about 30% of the cost

• Eliminating communicable diseases increases life expectancy by 11 years, and adds more than

230 million working years to Africa’s future by 2030

• However, eliminating communicable diseases accelerates the transition to non-

communicable diseases and could leave Africa health systems unprepared for a shifting burden of disease

• In terms of poverty reduction however, improving governance has the most significant effects
• This scenario lifts more than 60 million people out of poverty by 2050, compared to

approximately 40 million in the Improved Sanitation scenario and about 16 million in the Communicable Diseases scenario

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REDUCTION IN POVERTY BY SCENARIO

400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600 Millions of people Current Path Communicable Diseases Universal Sanitation Unlocking the Future

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CONCLUSION

• Africa currently experience some of the lowest levels of access to basic services of any

region on the globe

• Advancing progress on the whole suite of SDG targets will require a sustained and well-

coordinated effort

• To do this successfully we should focus on three main questions:
• Where are now we and how did we get here?
• Based on those historical trends, where do we think we are going?
• And finally, where do we want to go and how do we get there?
• IFs can help us answer these questions and explore policy options to achieve a more

desirable future

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@ISSAfrica @PardeeCenterIFs

AFRICA TO 2030 AND BEYOND

African Futures Project December 9, 2016

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