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Measuring Retail Trade with Administrative Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics David Friedman Associate Commissioner for Prices & Living Conditions Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee June 10, 2016 1 U.S. B UREAU OF L

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1 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Measuring Retail Trade with Administrative Data:

David Friedman Associate Commissioner for Prices & Living Conditions Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee June 10, 2016

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2 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 2 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Data Sources

 Administrative/Publicly available data  Purchased data sets  Company provided data – “corporate level

data”

 Web scraping/ application program interface

(API)

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3 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 3 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

CPI Data Uses

 Create sample frames  Benchmark samples  Supplement collected data to support hedonic

modeling (quality adjustment)

 Replace/supplement current data collection

methods

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4 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 4 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Summary: Replacing Collection Initiatives

 Almost complete

CorpY – company provided dataset

 In progress

CorpX – company provided dataset JD Power – purchased data Nielsen – purchased data

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5 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 5 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Corporate Level Data: CorpY

  • Great Opportunity

 maintain respondent cooperation  reduce respondent burden  work with transaction level data  receive insurance prices

  • Challenges

 Average prices for broader category and aggregated  Data received in format difficult to process

 Status: 1st production use is May 2016 Index for

monthly quotes

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6 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 6 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Corporate Level Data: CorpX

 Receive sales data monthly by 5th of following

month

  • Great Opportunity

maintain respondent cooperation reduce burden work with sales data

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7 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 7 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Corporate Level Data: CorpX

  • Challenges

mapping the CorpX item categories to the CPI structure melding the sales level data into our methodology and current system

  • in particular, accommodate seasonality & item substitution

including new methodology

  • achieve constant-quality price change w/a big data set

lack of characteristic detail having enough history to validate method

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8 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 8 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

CorpX Current Status

I. Received data for all CPI Primary Sampling Units (PSU’s) beginning with October 2014

  • II. Testing various methodologies
  • III. Will develop necessary CPI system

changes to be ready to use

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9 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 9 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

JD Power Project

 Purchase JD Power dataset as source for

replacement in New Vehicles index

 Prime example of benefits and challenges of

“big data”

Breadth of information Challenge of integration with current systems Methodological issues

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10 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 10 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

New Vehicle Observations

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

CPI JDPower

Number of Observations

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Model Year Price Indexes

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Unit Prices Increase

40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15

Index (100=1/2007)

UnitPriceInx MatchedModelTorn

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Ways to Treat the Price Declines

 Show the drop  Show price change across model years

Create “Changeover” price relatives Use Year-Over-Year Index

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14 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 14 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Price Dynamics

Average Prices (Source: Aizcorbe, Bridgman and Nalewaik (2010))

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15 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 15 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Price Dynamics

Average Prices (Source: Aizcorbe, Bridgman and Nalewaik (2010))

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JDPower vs CPI

90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 2007_1 2007_3 2007_5 2007_7 2007_9 2007_11 2008_1 2008_3 2008_5 2008_7 2008_9 2008_11 2009_1 2009_3 2009_5 2009_7 2009_9 2009_11 2010_1 2010_3 2010_5 2010_7 2010_9 2010_11 2011_1 2011_3 2011_5 2011_7 2011_9 2011_11 2012_1 2012_3 2012_5 2012_7 2012_9 2012_11 2013_1 2013_3 2013_5 2013_7 2013_9 2013_11 2014_1 2014_3 2014_5 2014_7 2014_9 2014_11 2015_1 2015_3

Index (100=06/2009)

Proposed JDPower Index

CPI: New Vehicles JDP: YOY + Cycle

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17 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 17 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Research Nielsen Indexes

 Data set for August 2005 – September 2010  2 million UPC codes  Scantrack coverage limitations

Grocery>$2 million; Drug Stores>$1 million; Mass Merchandisers Excludes one major retailer and non-UPC items (some produce, deli, bakery, fresh meat, etc.)

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18 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 18 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Nielsen Indexes

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20 40 60 80 100 120 140

FJ011 - Milk

CPI Nielsen

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19 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 19 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Nielsen Indexes

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20 40 60 80 100 120 140

FR02 - Candy and chewing gum

CPI Nielsen

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20 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 20 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Nielsen Indexes – Current focus

 Refine Nielsen indexes to :

Limit research to items that are well represented in the Scantrack data Account for product downsizing Account for UPC “churn” Calculate a geomeans index (in addition to a Tornqvist index)

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21 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 21 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Nielsen indexes – Current focus

 Preliminary results for 4 item strata  Work on additional 10-12 strata in FY16

95 100 105 110 115 200608 200609 200610 200611 200612 200701 200702 200703 200704 200705 200706 200707 200708 200709 200710 200711 200712 200801 200802 200803 200804 200805 200806 200807 200808 200809 200810 200811 200812 200901 200902 200903 200904 200905 200906 200907 200908 200909 200910 200911 200912 201001 201002 201003 201004 201005 201006 201007 201008 201009

CPI and Nielsen Indexes for FA02 – 0000 Cereal and Cereal Products

CPI TQ (price in t & (t-1); Churn & Dwnsz) Geo (No missing prices, Churn & Dwnsz)

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22 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 22 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Nielsen Indexes – Current focus

90.00 95.00 100.00 105.00 110.00 115.00 120.00 125.00 130.00 200608 200609 200610 200611 200612 200701 200702 200703 200704 200705 200706 200707 200708 200709 200710 200711 200712 200801 200802 200803 200804 200805 200806 200807 200808 200809 200810 200811 200812 200901 200902 200903 200904 200905 200906 200907 200908 200909 200910 200911 200912 201001 201002 201003 201004 201005 201006 201007 201008 201009

CPI and Nielsen Indexes for FA01 – 0000 Flour & Prepared Flour Mixes

CPI TQ (price in t and (t-1); churn & dwnsz Geo (no missing prices; churn & dwnsz)

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23 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 23 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Nielsen downsizing

 Automate identification  Compare to CPI

$0 $1 $2 $3 $4

Millions

Betty Crocker Fudge Brownie Mix

1600019726 - 18.3OZ 1600044830 - 19.8OZ

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24 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Summary: Benefits vs. Challenges

Benefits:

 Increasingly more available  Allows for evaluation &

improvement

 May reduce collection costs  Reduces respondent burden  Increased sample size  May increase data quality  Sometimes ability to get

quantity data

Challenges:

 Data quality issues –

especially lack of descriptive info

 Timeliness and reliability

concerns – mitigation strategies

 Cost and other

considerations (new skill set, IT infrastructure, etc.)

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25 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov 25 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

What’s Next

 Continue work on CorpX, JD Power, Nielsen  Project to modify CPI production to more

readily accept future alternative data

 Work with CE to investigate secondary sources

for Rent Data

 Explore new opportunities

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Contact Information

26 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

David Friedman Associate Commissioner for Prices & Living Conditions www.bls.gov/bls/inflation.htm 202-691-6307 Friedman.David@bls.gov