Activities in the Fiscal Year 2 0 0 5 in Korea Tae Yong Jung (World - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Activities in the Fiscal Year 2 0 0 5 in Korea Tae Yong Jung (World - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 23, 2024 48 likes •268 views

The 1 1 th AI M I nternational W orkshop Feb. 1 9 -2 1 , 2 0 0 6 NI ES, Tsukuba, Japan Activities in the Fiscal Year 2 0 0 5 in Korea Tae Yong Jung (World Bank, USA) Dong Kun Lee (Seoul National University, Korea) So Won Yoon (Seoul National

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Activities in the Fiscal Year 2 0 0 5 in Korea

The 1 1 th AI M I nternational W orkshop

  • Feb. 1 9 -2 1 , 2 0 0 6

NI ES, Tsukuba, Japan

Tae Yong Jung (World Bank, USA) Dong Kun Lee (Seoul National University, Korea) So Won Yoon (Seoul National University, Korea) Eun Young Kim (Seoul National University, Korea)

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SLIDE 2

Contents

  • 1. Introduction
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. General Situation
  • 2. General Situation
  • 3. Current Policies
  • 3. Current Policies
  • 5. Conclusion
  • 5. Conclusion
  • 4. Scenario Setting & Results
  • 4. Scenario Setting & Results
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SLIDE 3

1 . I ntroduction

  • The deterioration of air quality from rapid industrialization

and the soaring number of vehicles on the road is one of the most striking changes that Korea experienced during the process of achieving unprecedented economic and social growth.

  • The MoE sets up air quality improvement targets on 6 major air

pollutants including carbon dioxide, ozone, and particulate matters, but also introduced practical measures to pave the way towards achieving these goals.

  • Special Measures for Metropolitan Air Quality

I m provem ent, a landmark policy that stipulates emission standards, a total air pollution load management system, an emissions trading system, and the supply of low em ission vehicles.

  • To analyzes the practical policies related to low em ission

vehicles scenarios along with projections of key determinants in the transport sector in this area.

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SLIDE 4

2 . General Situation

  • Air quality in MA (metropolitan area) in Korea : the lowest

among the OECD countries

  • 96% in the rate of the number of ozone warning, 80% in

the rate of excess environmental standard of NO2 and 64% of PM are happed in MA ('02)

71 20 20 40 28 37 25 22 29 30 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 S e o u l ('01) Lo n d o n ('01) P a r i s ('01) T o k y o ('00) Ne w Y o r k ('97)

T SP(㎍/㎥) NO2(ppb)

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SLIDE 5

2 . General Situation

Korea USA England Japan Germany

Number of vehicle per 1km road

142 34 84 63 10,220 199

Travel distance (km) per one vehicle

21,266 20,313 16,503

  • Number of V./ km Road & Travel distance
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SLIDE 6

Main device each vehicle Main device each vehicle

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ICV

(Internal Combustion Vehicle)

HEV

(Hybrid Eclectic Vehicle)

FCV

(Fuel Cell Vehicle)

Engine small Generator Battery Engine Motor/Generator PCU(Power Control

Unit)

Battery/HV Relay Fuel Cell Motor PCU(Power Control

Unit)

Battery/HV Relay

FCV HEV ICV

Mega Trend of Car Industry Mega Trend of Car Industry

High voltage Engine Extinction

2 . General Situation

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SLIDE 7

2 . General Situation

Electric V.

H V.

Fuel Cell V. Hybrid V.

Mileage(km)

215 350 355(H 350bar) Superior than general V.

Maximum Speed (kph)

125 226 140 165

Price

495 (ten thousand yen) 960(ten thousand yen)/ year(leas e cost) 226(ten thousand yen)

  • Ref. : KISTI(Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information) , 2004

Comparison with low emission Vehicles

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SLIDE 8

3 . Current Policies

Hybrid car

– The first Korean-made hybrid car

¥"Click¥" starts operation on November 8,

  • 2004. Four hybrid-powered vehicles were

delivered to the Ministry of Environment

– Supply plan : ‘04-’06 : 780, ’07 :

1,195 ’08 2,195

– The Ministry plans to provide financial

assistance of 28 million Korean won in supplying hybrid cars to the Korean National Police Agency, Metropolitan Governments, NGOs, the Ministry of Transportation and Construction, and the Ministry of Health and Welfare.

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SLIDE 9

Sm all passenger car ( 1 ,4 0 0 cc) Hybrid Gasoline vehicle

Total (g/ ㎞)

0.199(100) 0.315(158) 0.95(477) CO 0.160 0.258 0.86 NOx 0.025 0.031 0.02 HC 0.014 0.026 0.07 Fuel Efficient (㎞/ ℓ) 18.9 13.1 7.2 Air pollutant emission(㎏) 3.98 6.3 19 Energy use(ℓ) 1,058 1,527 2,778 Cost of energy use/ year(1000won) 1,587(100) 2,291(144) 4,167(263) Air pollutant Emission Large passenger car ( 3 ,5 0 0 cc)

3 . Current Policies

Comparison between hybrid V. and gasoline

  • V. low emission V.
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Natural gas bus

– MOE has started operating natural gas

vehicles (NGVs) in replacement of diesel buses with long operation length and high emissions discharge.

– As of May 2004, 4,876 diesel vehicles

were replaced with NGVs, and 20,000 diesel vehicles, which account for 48% of the total diesel vehicles nationwide, will be replaced with NGVs by 2007.

– as a policy to control in-use diesel

vehicles that are not subject to the replacement, the Ministry is promoting another project to encourage the attachment of Diesel Particulate Filters (DPF) and Diesel Oxidation Catalysts (DOC).

3 . Current Policies

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SLIDE 11

4 . Scenario Setting

20 40 60 80 100 120 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 No policy ICV FCV R&D ICV prom

  • te HEV ICV

No policy HEV FCV R&D HEV prom

  • te HEV HEV

No policy FCV FCV R&D FCV prom

  • te HEV FCV

%

Ref : Market Share - James Sweeney, Stanford University

Precondition for setting Scenario

– Sc 1 : No policy – Sc 2 : FCV R&D – Sc 3 : Promote HEV

projection of number of HEV 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

no policy FCV R& D Promote HEV

Projection of market share Projection of number of HEV

in Korea

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SLIDE 12

– GRDP

Precondition for setting Scenario

4 . Scenario Setting

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SLIDE 13

2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000 12000000 1 9 7 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 7 2 2 3 2 6 2 9 2 1 2 2 1 5 2 1 8 2 2 1 2 2 4 2 2 7 2 3 m an wom an

100 200 300 400 500 600

  • 4

a g e 5

  • 9

a g e 1

  • 1

4 a g e 1 5

  • 1

9 a g e 2

  • 2

4 a g e 2 5

  • 2

9 a g e 3

  • 3

4 a g e 3 5

  • 3

9 a g e 4

  • 4

4 a g e 4 5

  • 4

9 a g e 5

  • 5

4 a g e 5 5

  • 5

9 a g e 6

  • 6

4 a g e 6 5

  • 6

9 a g e 7

  • 7

4 a g e 7 5

  • 7

9 a g e a b

  • v

e 8 a g e 1980 m an 1980 wom an 2030 m an 2030 wom an (thousand pop.)

Precondition for setting Scenario

  • Population

4 . Scenario Setting

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SLIDE 14

4 . Scenario Setting

Ref : Market Share - James Sweeney, Stanford University

Scenario Setting

Scenario Description No change Present share will not change by 2030 compete New car, hybrid car, fuel cell car compete by 2030 HEV Hybrid electric vehicle will take 21.8% shares in 2030 HEV & FCV Hybrid electric vehicle and fuel cell vehicle will take 26%, 7.7% shares in 2030 Promote HEV Hybrid electric vehicle will take 100% shares in 2030

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SLIDE 15

Keep the present (2001)

Energy Cons umption

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 10^6 GJ AIR_1 AIR_2 CM AL_1 CM AL_3 JEEP_1 JEEP_3 JEEP_5 LARG_1 LARG_3 LARG_5 LBUS_1 LBUS_3 M BUS_1 M EDI_1 M EDI_3 M TA1_1 M TA2_1 SBUS_1 SBUS_3 SBUS_5 SHIP_1 SHIP_2 SM AL_1 SM AL_3 SUB_1 TRAN_1 TRAN_2 TRU1_1 TRU1_3 TRU1_5 TRU2_1 TRU3_1

Energy Cons umption

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 10^6 GJ AIR_1 AIR_2 CM AL_1 CM AL_3 CM AL_4 JEEP_1 JEEP_3 JEEP_4 JEEP_5 LARG_1 LARG_3 LARG_5 LARG_6 LBUS_1 LBUS_2 LBUS_3 M BUS_1 M BUS_2 M EDI_1 M EDI_2 M EDI_3 M EDI_4 M EDI_6 M TA1_1 M TA1_2 M TA2_1 M TA2_2 SBUS_1 SBUS_2 SBUS_3 SBUS_4 SBUS_5 SHIP_1 SHIP_2 SM AL_1 SM AL_2 SM AL_3 SM AL_4 SM AL_7 SUB_1 TRAN_1 TRAN_2 TRU1_1 TRU1_2 TRU1_3 TRU1_5 TRU1_6 TRU2_1 TRU2_2 TRU3_1 TRU3_2

Compete

4 . Scenario Results

  • Energy Consumption
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SLIDE 16

Energy Cons umption

100 200 300 400 500 600 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 10^6 GJ AIR_1 AIR_2 CM AL_1 CM AL_2 CM AL_3 CM AL_4 CM AL_7 JEEP_1 JEEP_2 JEEP_3 JEEP_4 JEEP_5 JEEP_6 LARG_1 LARG_2 LARG_3 LARG_4 LARG_5 LARG_6 LARG_7 LBUS_1 LBUS_3 M BUS_1 M BUS_2 M EDI_1 M EDI_2 M EDI_3 M EDI_4 M EDI_8 M TA1_1 M TA1_2 M TA2_1 M TA2_2 SBUS_1 SBUS_2 SBUS_3 SBUS_4 SBUS_5 SBUS_6 SHIP_1 SHIP_2 SM AL_1 SM AL_2 SM AL_3 SM AL_4 SM AL_9 SUB_1 TRAN_1 TRAN_2 TRU1_1 TRU1_2 TRU1_3 TRU1_4 TRU1_5 TRU1_6 TRU2_1 TRU2_2 TRU3_1 TRU3_2

HEV

Energy Cons umption

100 200 300 400 500 600 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 10^6 GJ AIR_1 AIR_2 CM AL_1 CM AL_2 CM AL_3 CM AL_4 CM AL_6 CM AL_7 JEEP_1 JEEP_2 JEEP_3 JEEP_4 JEEP_5 JEEP_6 LARG_1 LARG_2 LARG_3 LARG_4 LARG_5 LARG_6 LARG_7 LARG_8 LBUS_1 LBUS_2 LBUS_3 M BUS_1 M BUS_2 M EDI_1 M EDI_2 M EDI_3 M EDI_4 M EDI_8 M EDI_9 M TA1_1 M TA1_2 M TA2_1 M TA2_2 SBUS_1 SBUS_2 SBUS_3 SBUS_4 SBUS_5 SBUS_6 SHIP_1 SHIP_2 SM AL_1 SM AL_2 SM AL_3 SM AL_4 SM AL_6 SM AL_9 SUB_1 TRAN_1 TRAN_2 TRU1_1 TRU1_2 TRU1_3 TRU1_4 TRU1_5 TRU1_6 TRU2_1 TRU2_2 TRU3_1 TRU3_2

HEV & FCV

  • Energy Consumption

4 . Scenario Results

Energy Cons umption

100 200 300 400 500 600 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 10^6 GJ AIR_1 AIR_2 CM AL_1 CM AL_3 CM AL_7 JEEP_1 JEEP_2 JEEP_3 JEEP_4 JEEP_5 JEEP_6 LARG_1 LARG_3 LARG_5 LARG_7 LBUS_1 LBUS_3 M BUS_1 M BUS_2 M EDI_1 M EDI_3 M EDI_8 M TA1_1 M TA1_2 M TA2_1 M TA2_2 SBUS_1 SBUS_2 SBUS_3 SBUS_4 SBUS_5 SBUS_6 SHIP_1 SHIP_2 SM AL_1 SM AL_3 SM AL_9 SUB_1 TRAN_1 TRAN_2 TRU1_1 TRU1_2 TRU1_3 TRU1_4 TRU1_5 TRU1_6 TRU2_1 TRU2_2 TRU3_1 TRU3_2

Promote HEV

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SLIDE 17

4 . Scenario Results

Energy Consumption

300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 10^6 GJ BAU compete HEV HEV&FCV Promote HEV

  • Energy Consumption
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SLIDE 18

CO2 Emissions

50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 120000 130000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

10^8gCO2 BAU compete HEV HEV&FCV Promote HEV

  • CO2 Emissions

4 . Scenario Results

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SLIDE 19
  • NOx Emissions

4 . Scenario Results

NOx Emissions

300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 10^8gNOx BAU compete HEV HEV&FCV Promote HEV

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SLIDE 20
  • SO2 Emissions

4 . Scenario Results

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

BAU compete HEV HEV&FCV Promote HEV

10^8gSO2

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SLIDE 21

5 . Conclusion

Investment Investment Technology Technology Policies Policies

  • The environmental policies and

measures would be shifted to more market-oriented approaches rather than the conventional ‘command- and-control’ type

  • Policy balance among sectors and

policy integration is considered in more systematic way to achieve multi-targets and goals.

  • The environmental policies and

measures would be shifted to more market-oriented approaches rather than the conventional ‘command- and-control’ type

  • Policy balance among sectors and

policy integration is considered in more systematic way to achieve multi-targets and goals.

  • Current Technology

Level: Fuel cell car is very promising for the future cars, but high cost.

  • Hybrid Car market will

be expanded for the immediate future

  • .
  • Current Technology

Level: Fuel cell car is very promising for the future cars, but high cost.

  • Hybrid Car market will

be expanded for the immediate future

  • .
  • Next Generation Core

Technology Development : Future Vehicle Technology Basic infra & Roadmap 590 Bill. Won

  • Strategy Development for

Technology Co-operations with Major Auto manufacturers and Auto Market Expansion

  • Strategy for China-Japan-

Korea Collaboration

  • Next Generation Core

Technology Development : Future Vehicle Technology Basic infra & Roadmap 590 Bill. Won

  • Strategy Development for

Technology Co-operations with Major Auto manufacturers and Auto Market Expansion

  • Strategy for China-Japan-

Korea Collaboration

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SLIDE 22