The harmonisation of mirror data using simultaneously estimated accuracies Arie ten Cate
Estimating reporting accuracies exp β π¦ ππ imp β’ discrepancies Ξ ππ β‘ π¦ ππ β’ average discrepancy per country? β’ simultaneously estimate all accuracies β’ accurate: small bias or small variance?
The bias model β’ every country has an export bias and an import bias exp β π π imp E Ξ ππ = π π β’ Tsigas, Hertel & Binkley, 1992 β’ restriction needed exp + Ξ£ ΞΌ π imp = 0 Ξ£ ΞΌ π
The variance model β’ every country has an export variance and an import variance β’ independent reporters exp + V imp Var Ξ ππ = π π π β’ Stone, Champernowne and Meade, 1942 exp = Ξ£ π imp β’ restriction Ξ£ π π π β’ hard to estimate - multiple likelihood maxima
Applications β’ Trade in services in the EU β very large discrepancies β UK, Germany, France, Italy β’ World trade in goods β data Tsigas et al. β USA, Japan, EC, other W-Europe, NewZealand
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