A2A STRATEGIC PLAN
- 2016 RESULTS & BUSINESS PLAN UPDATE
- H1 2017 RESULTS
A2A STRATEGIC PLAN 2016 RESULTS & BUSINESS PLAN UPDATE H1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
September 2017 A2A STRATEGIC PLAN 2016 RESULTS & BUSINESS PLAN UPDATE H1 2017 RESULTS 2016 CONSOLIDATED RESULTS 2014-16, HOW WE DID IT STRATEGIC PLAN 2017-2021 H1 2017 RESULTS This document gathers the most relevant slides of
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This document gathers the most relevant slides of the following presentations:
The full presentations, together with the conference calls mp3 files, are available on A2A website at the following link: https://www.a2a.eu/en/investors/presentations-conference
3
* Excluding extraordinary items equal to 205 €M in 2015 and 153 €M in 2016
2.8x 2.5x
NFP / EBITDA 2015
73
2016
224
5,093 EBITDA REVENUES GROUP NET INCOME GROUP ORDINARY NET INCOME * NET FINANCIAL POSITION
2015
4,921
2016
5,093
2015
1,048
2016
1,231 +3% +17% +151
2015
278
2016
377 +36%
2015
2,897
2016 Adjusted
2,667
LGH price and NFP at closing
469
2016
3,136
+239
2016 Consolidated Results
2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021 Financials H1 2017 Results
€M San Filippo del Mela “Merchant”
Retail Regulated Components LGH acquisition Fixed Costs reduction Non-recurring items Positive CCGT Ebitda Energy Scenario San Filippo del Mela “Must Run” Trading portfolio Gas and Electricity allowed revenues
4
2015
1,048
2015 Ordinary
1,022
Waste
25 30
Networks and District Heating
19
Smart City
1 11
2016 Ordinary
1,103 128
2016
1,231
2015 Non-recurring Items Energy Retail Generation & trading EPCG and other 2016 Non-recurring Items
€M
2016 Consolidated Results
2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021 Financials H1 2017 Results
5 +153 +36%
46 145
2016 Consolidated Results
2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021 Financials H1 2017 Results
From Group Net Income to Group Net Ordinary Income
Group Net Income Reported Impairment
shareholdings Monfalcone write-off Net effect Edipower non- proportional demerger Group Net Ordinary Income 2015 Group Net Ordinary Income 2016
€M From Group EBITDA to Group Net Income
2016 EBITDA D&A Write-off Of Assets Risk Provisions Non-recurr. transactions Net Financial Expenses EBT Net Income Taxes
Net result from discontinued
Minorities Equity 1,231
56
354
224 2 1,048
76
130 73
6
BREAKDOWN BY NATURE BREAKDOWN BY BUSINESS
2015 57 133 154
2016 48 46 159 171
Maintenance Development Mandatory M&A*
2015 59 52 64 129
2016 102 61
36
167
4 2 27 7 8 6 27 17
Generation & trading Energy retail Waste District heating Networks Corporate Smart city Epcg
+80 +80
€M
*M&A Capex related to LGH not included
2016 Consolidated Results
2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021 Financials H1 2017 Results
7
(1) Funds from operations after change in working capital
€M
2016 Consolidated Results
2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021 Financials H1 2017 Results
8
* From the appointment of the new Board of Directors, 17/06/2014, to 28/3/2017
Achievements on key R3D points:
Cost reduction, company simplification, flexibilization, capacity optimization
Consistent industrial growth Selective external growth
Public lighting, smart city, energy efficiency
3 years of growing results exceeding plan 12 quarters with continuous debt reduction Dividend (+50%) and stock price growth (+61%)* 82 €M savings
RESULTS AND STRATEGIC GOALS DELIVERED
2016 Consolidated Results
2014-16, how we did it
Strategic plan 2017-2021 Financials H1 2017 Results
9
GENERATION & TRADING
CCGT plants in 2 years
re-conversion
for A2A CCGTs
ENVIRONMENT +8% waste treated (2,800 ktons in 2016) +26% inhabitants served (3.4 M in 2016) ENERGY RETAIL +117% free market customers (694,000 POD in 2016) NETWORKS & HEAT +13% District Heating network expansion in Milan (299 km in 2016) Selective external growth 9 deals completed in 2 years
in three years
improved up to 24%
Management structure
& integrated report
sustainability reports
Smart working, Organizational Compass Project, Futura2a, ABC Project, Melograno, ...
(WFM, IDMS, …)
Filippo del Mela site PUBLIC LIGHTING +125% LED relamping (196k lighting points in 2016) ENERGY EFFICIENCY 1st Italian independent ESCo acquired (Consul System) SMART CITY A2A Smart City company: set-up completed and first pilot projects E-MOBILITY 1st Italian Fast Charge public network (90k recharges in 2016)
completed
10
11
Active role in the energy market transformation Flexible fleet to serve shortening EU markets Re-alignment with EU Winter Package Development by adjacencies Buying options in smart city and green economy From pilot projects to market solutions
Growth in environment, smart networks and energy services Focus on low-risk businesses
FOCUS TRANSFORM ACCELERATE
12
ASSET DEVELOPMENT Additional investments (+600 €M vs. previous plan) in core, growing, low-risk businesses REGULATED BUSINESS WASTE TREATMENT DEVELOPMENT COST REDUCTION EFFICIENCY AND OPTIMIZATION En&A project on track and launch of a new operational excellence program MARKET GROWTH Consistent growth in retail, waste collection and DH ORGANIC DEVELOPMENT M&A AND SYNERGIES Prudent M&A targets Conservative targeted synergies
2016 Consolidated Results 2014-16, how we did it
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Financials H1 2017 Results
13
(1) Including M&A and gas distribution tenders
20 40 60 80 100%
+50% CAPEX per year vs. average 2014-2016(1) Almost 90% CAPEX in regulated/quasi-regulated markets ~70% of net invested capital in 2021 related to Regulated/ Quasi-Regulated assets
€M
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Asset Development
Market Growth Cost reduction 40% CAPEX
in sustainability
14
Increase in Gas and Electricity distribution RAB Gas and Electricity distribution tariffs stable over the period 2017–2021 Water distribution tariffs increase by 8.5% YoY according to Regulatory Framework 2016-2019
€B
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Asset Development
Market Growth Cost reduction EE & GAS RAB 2017 EE & GAS RAB 2021
15
Limited volume risk, mostly internal waste flows integration Focus on A2A industrial sites in Northern Italy
* LGH, Rieco, Bedizzole full year contribution; public tenders excluded
860 Ktons/year
waste material recycling
Ktons treated
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Asset Development
Market Growth Cost reduction
2014 2015 TARGET 2015 ACTUAL 2016 TARGET 2016 ACTUAL FULL YEAR CONSOLI- DATION* NEW PLANTS 2021 2,594 2,626 2,558 2,634 2,800 687 500 155 4,249
Authorized/ authorizations in progress Authorizations to be requested
ACHIEVABLE TARGET ACHIEVED EXISTING PLANTS UPGRADE 107
16
Note: Includes LGH
2021 target consistent with 2014-16 average organic growth
67% avg. sorted collection
M inhabitants
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Market Growth
Cost reduction
2014 2015 TARGET 2015 ACTUAL 2016 TARGET 2016 ACTUAL 2021 BP 2.70 2.81 2.80 2.90 3.38 3.94
~ +100K inhab./year ~ +300K inhab./year
ACHIEVABLE TARGET ACHIEVED
17
Growth planned in core geographical areas Free market customer base in 2019 4x vs. 2014
Note: Includes LGH * Free market **Electricity mass market
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Market Growth
Cost reduction
2014 2015 TARGET 2015 ACTUAL 2016 TARGET 2016 ACTUAL 2021 TARGET 320 419 444 577 694 1,438
~ +180K POD/year
90% EE customers
with green energy sold** POD* ‘000 ACHIEVABLE TARGET ACHIEVED
~ +150K POD/year
18
>60% of M&A contribution to business plan already completed Only new M&A deals in advanced stage included
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Market Growth
Cost reduction
Note: LGH not included
2016 EBITDA OF ALREADY CLOSED DEALS ALREADY CLOSED DEALS FULL POTENTIAL NEW M&A DEALS UNDER NEGOTIATION SYNERGIES TOTAL INCREMENTAL EBITDA
2 4 15 10 31
SYNERGIES ENERGY EFFICIENCY NETWORKS WASTE ACHIEVABLE TARGET ACHIEVED EBITDA €M
19
EBITDA synergies 12 €M (~16% of 2016 LGH EBITDA) Further savings under assessment
€M
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Market Growth
Cost reduction EBITDA SAVINGS FINANCIAL SAVINGS CAPEX SAVINGS TOTAL SAVINGS @2020
12 7 2 21
20 EBITDA €M
Lean and 6 sigma initiatives, Business Process Modeling Change management Creation of an internal competence center devoted to continuous performance improvement Plan impacts not included in the business plan (additional projects)
2017 NEW OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE PROGRAM
2015-2021
Cost reduction
Market Growth
12
2016 2021
82
+108
LGH A2A 178 12
190
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape
21
Traditional thermal plant reconversions Organic and inorganic growth in RES and in new market opportunities VALUE FROM DIVERSIFICATION 5-year SFM plant must-run Hydro and baseload stable production MEDIUM TERM STABILITY ACTIVE MANAGEMENT OF CCGT GROWING OPTIONS RES/DERs NEW SOURCES OF GROWTH
2016 Consolidated Results 2014-16, how we did it
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Financials H1 2017 Results Short-term market opportunities Additional medium-term market space from European trends Capacity market and generation margins upside Possible moderate addressable demand increase
22 '13 532 '14 500 '15 469 '16 494 Avg. 13-16 499 Avg. 17-21 459
33
1
Delta vs. avg. 7%
0%
Delta % vs. avg. Thermal Hydro incentives Hydro market
PLANTS CONTRIBUTION MARGIN DELTA
Historical ‘13- ‘16 volatility maximum +/-7% Natural hedging between hydro and thermal €M
33 33
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Value from diversification
Medium-term stability Active mgmt of CCGT RES/DERs sources of growth
23 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 49 2,9 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 55
Conservative scenario assumptions, lower than previous plan
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12,2
Clean spark spread Clean dark spread PUN Baseload PUN Peak Load
16-20 BP 17-21 BP
€/ MWh
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape
Medium-term stability Active mgmt of CCGT RES/DERs sources of growth
2.9 12.2
24
63%
57%
45%
42%
42%
32% A2A 25%
17% 3.1 0.8 3.1 0.8 1.1 2.2 0.8 0.8 GW
Slow growth in market demand
New RES not covering entire additional net demand A2A CCGTs positioned to catch market
GROWING MARKET SPACE FOR A2A CCGTs CAPACITY MARKET REVIEWED CONSERVATIVELY
* A2A elaboration based on GER, FRA, SPA, UK, SWI, BEL, AUT nuke/coal phase-out plans ** MGP load factor of Northern zone CCGTs in peak hours (2016)
K€/ MW LF
%**
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Active mgmt of CCGT
RES/DERs sources of growth
2 YEARS AGO FCST
23.5 15.7 13.3
1 YEARS AGO FCST TODAY’S FCST
START-UP
2017 2018 2018
Average on A2A total generation portfolio
Capacity auctions expected to set premium in a 18-20 k€ range
25
0.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 0.5 1.0
2021
0.8 3.6 1.9 0.5 1.0
Today
8.4 7.6
Must-run Baseload RES Flexible CCGT Standard CCGT Demothballed (TSO request) Mothballing Shut down/sold
Must run, baseload and hydro stable ~4 GW CCGTs running, 90% of which planned to be flexible
A2A CAPACITY
GW
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Active mgmt of CCGT
RES/DERs sources of growth
26 THERMAL PLANTS RE- CONVERSION
Evolution into “integrated renewable poles” Projects design in SFM, BR and Monfalcone Solutions for environment/renewable synergies Exploration of potential inorganic growth in PV/Wind Potential new greenfield/brownfield developments
New developments as additional projects
DEVELOPMENT ON A2A SITES RES
PV development in Group industrial sites (SEU/SSP) Hydro developments in Calabria
MARKET DEVELOPMENT RES M&A and GREENFIELD/ BROWNFIELD
Storage systems development Demand Response Management System Innovative distributed energy services
DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape RES/DERs sources of growth
27
SMART CITY Strong pipeline of business development agreements A2A SMART CITY MOBILITY SOLUTIONS Catching the key trends in the mobility evolution: green, shared and connected ENERGY EFFICIENCY Higher targets also thanks to selective M&A deals already
PUBLIC LIGHTING ESCo PROJECTS New M&A deals in pipeline
2016 Consolidated Results 2014-16, how we did it
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape Financials H1 2017 Results
28 E.E. Certificates (TEE)
LED relamping almost completed Growth achieved with a mix of organic growth and selective M&A
Energy Efficiency
Analysis of M&A
in complementary segments
Palazzo della Loggia Brescia
REGULATED /QUASI-REGULATED FREE MARKET
Lighting points
District cooling plants
Strategic plan 2017-2021
Relaunch Re-generation Reshape
Energy Efficiency
~2x 209 418 2016 2021 196
OTHER LED
Consultancy TEE Energy consumption analysis Industrial Design & installation Monitoring Combined Heat & Power EPC Horizon 2020 projects, Demand Side Management & Demand Response Metering
29
Operational excellence project adoption Further deleveraging, with higher Capex and DPS Dividend target of 7.5 €cent in 2019 confirmed Extension
territorial sustainability reports Sustainability target in management MBO People: ageing policy, welfare, managerial development, talent management, employer branding Further Business Units process digitalization New HR ERP Strong fiber development New IT and digital services to municipality Strong investments in automation
30
30 actions by 2020
Piano Industriale 2015-2019 Piano di Sostenibilità 2014
GOALS and TARGETS 2030 ACTION and ENABLING DRIVERS - 2020
2030 10/17 goals The sustainability policy and the 2030 commitments
SDG vs. VALUE CHAIN
CIRCULAR ECONOMY DECARBONIZATION SMART GRID AND SERVICES PEOPLE INNOVATION
OUR
2030
PATH
FROM TO
2016 Consolidated Results 2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021
People & Sustainability
Financials H1 2017 Results
Develop a sustainable waste management approach for the entire life cycle Contribute to the achievement of the national and European
GHG emissions Increase the reliability of grids and services by increasing the investments in technological innovation Actively contributing to community welfare and improved working conditions
31
CIRCULAR ECONOMY DECARBONIZATION SMART GRID AND SERVICES PEOPLE INNOVATION
2016 results 2020 goals
99.0% 67.0% 80.0% 56.2% 84% 98.86%
Urban waste sent for recycling or energy recovery Separated waste collection in the communities served Impact of the recovery capacity of the material in the Group's plants on the urban waste collected
392.5
1,260
Carbon intensity in electricity generation (gCO2/kWh) CO2 avoided thanks to the extension of the district heating network (ktonnes/year) Green electricity sold (GWh)
417 769
The CSI Total in “multi-client of reference” surveys (CERVED DataBank) with a value never below
90%
customers with online A2A Energia services
400,000
Million euro invested in the Smart City area
10 268,818 1.9 92.4%
regional workshops with 30 actions to be implemented inspections/year at the roadwork sites of the A2A Group Target employees involved in Smart Working projects
15 4,000 20% 2 workshop
(11 actions)
1,406 5%
2016 Consolidated Results 2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021
People & Sustainability
Financials H1 2017 Results
2020 goal already achieved
32 1,103
Waste 31 15 Networks & District Heating 46
Smart City 2
2017 Ordinary
1,106 29
2017 2016 Ordinary
Energy retail Generation & Trading EPCG &
Non Recurring Items
1,135* 1,120 – 1,150 ~300 ~0 – 100 EBITDA 2017F NET INCOME CAPEX CASH FLOW ~550 – 600
1,120 – 1,150
~ +3%
€M
2016 Consolidated Results 2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021
Financials
H1 2017 Results
1,165 – 1,185 EBITDA NEW 2017 OUTLOOK, REVISED UPWARD AFTER Q1’17 RESULTS AND CONFIRMED AFTER H1’17 CASH FLOW ~100
* Central value of the range 1,120 €M – 1,150 €M considered as the reference value for EBITDA 2017. The range was revised upward to 1,165 €M – 1,185 €M after H1’17 Results presentation (for further information go to slide 64): one-
33
1,135* 1,380 1,380
66 422 263 141 268 78 51 34 34 6 31 12 97 457 341 192 301 22% 13% 2017
WASTE ENERGY RETAIL NETWORKS AND DISTRICT HEATING GENERATION & TRADING SMART CITY EPCG OTHER
2021 2021
REGULATED / FREE MKT MIX REGULATED QUASI REGULATED MERCHANT LOW VOLATILITY MERCHANT HIGH VOLATILITY OTHER EPCG NETWORKS GENERATION & TRADING WASTE ENERGY RETAIL SMART CITY BY BU BY MIX
+245
8 14
* New central value of the range, excluding one-offs, is equal to 1,115 €M. ** Moreover, put option on EPCG was exercised last July.
€M
30% 35%
2016 Consolidated Results 2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021
Financials
H1 2017 Results
** **
34
317*
245
24 41
470
EBITDA D&A PROVISIONS NET FINANCIAL EXPENSES TAXES MINORITIES
2017 GROUP NET INCOME 2021 GROUP NET INCOME
+153
€M
2016 Consolidated Results 2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021
Financials
H1 2017 Results
* This number does not take into account the changes in EBITDA guidance and the exercise of put option on EPCG - more info on slide 63.
35
M&A DEVELOPMENT MAINTENANCE MANDATORY
2017 - 2021
TOTAL CAPEX
2,750
3% 57% 36% 5% 2017 - 2021
TOTAL CAPEX
2,750
9% 47% 25% 8% 6% 1% 2%
GEN. & TRADING RETAIL WASTE DISTRICT HEATING NETWORKS CORPORATE EPCG*
1%
SMART CITY
2017 - 2021
TOTAL CAPEX
2,750
12% 34% 1% 53%
MERCHANT MERCHANT LOW VOLATILITY QUASI REGULATED REGULATED
€M
2016 Consolidated Results 2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021
Financials
H1 2017 Results
* Please note, put option on EPCG was exercised last July.
36
NFP 2016
3.1
Ebitda
Change in NWC & other asset/liab.
0.3
Use of Funds
0.2
Tax
1.0
Net Financial Expenses
0.5
CAPEX
2.8
Dividends & Other
0.9
NFP 2021
2.5
2.5x 1.8x * Cash flow waterfall does not take into account the effects of the put option exercised on EPCG – more info on slides 34, 63 ** Inclusive of net write-offs (256 €M). By excluding net write-offs, Return on Investments is equal to 11%
€B ~7,1%**
RETURN ON INVESTMENTS
~12%
2016 Consolidated Results 2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021
Financials
H1 2017 Results
*
37
(1) FFO = Ebitda – provisions for bad debt - net interest expense - current tax expense + dividends received
Debt = gross financial debt net of surplus cash + employee benefits + liabilities for landfills
A2A DIVIDEND PER SHARE (€c)
3.3 3.6 4.1 4.92 ~ 7.5 Min 60% pay-out ratio
FFO / DEBT 1
17% 18% ~21% ~24% > 25% > 25%
CONFIRMED CONFIRMED
2016 Consolidated Results 2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021
Financials
H1 2017 Results
38
(1) Electrical connection from road level to user’s individual apartment
LOCAL AGGREGATIONS HEAT TRANSPORTATION BACKBONE CASSANO-MILANO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ABROAD DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES (DER) PLANT RECONVERSIONS GAS NETWORKS: FURTHER GROWTH THROUGH GAS TENDER OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE REHABILITATION OF “COLONNE MONTANTI” (1) EPCG EXIT OPTION
FEASIBILITY
Exercised in July 2017
EBITDA IMPACT 10-20 50-75 10-20 50-60 5-8 5-20 5-10 tbd PROJECT LIST
135- 210
€M
2016 Consolidated Results 2014-16, how we did it Strategic plan 2017-2021
Financials
H1 2017 Results
MoU with “Utilities
signed in April 2017 «Mistral» project launched in July 2017
39
Waste, Retail and Networks to lead the growth More options for generation and a more conservative energy scenario Resilience of net income growth to commodity prices Dividend target of 7.5 €cent in 2019 confirmed Positive free cash flow generation with increasing Capex and dividends
NO LONGER A GEN.CO.
Growth mainly driven by non-generation businesses Higher option value from generation assets and Winter Package Strong CAPEX increase in regulated/ quasi-regulated markets Annual investments 50% higher than past three years’ average Further optimization from operational excellence Local aggregations, M&A, RES/DER and other projects to strengthen A2A positioning and to mitigate risk Updated Project Pot
BOOST IN BUSINESSES WITH PROVEN TRACK RECORD ROOM FOR UPSIDES OUR FUTURE IS SUSTAINABLE, GREEN, OPEN, SMART
40 40
FY 2016 vs. FY 2015 2017B-2021 STRATEGIC PLAN
41 41
*P&L includes 5 months (August-December 2016) of LGH consolidation
€M FY 2015 FY 2016 CHANGE %
42 42 €M
Intangible Assets Shareholdings and Other Non Current Financial Assets Other Non Current Assets/Liabilities Deferred Tax Assets and Liabilities Provisions for Risks, Charges and Liabilities for landfills Employee Benefits NET FIXED CAPITAL Inventories Trade receivables and other current Assets
FY 2015 FY 2016 Restated
%
Tangible Assets
5,129
Current tax Assets/Liabilities WORKING CAPITAL AND OTHER CURRENT ASSETS/LIABILITIES TOTAL CAPITAL EMPLOYED Equity Net Financial Position TOTAL SOURCES
1,704 80 (82) 341 (671) (365) 6,136 159 2,210 37 278 6,415 3,279 3,136 6,415
Trade payables and other current Liabilities
(2,128)
Non current Assets /Liabilities held for sale
1 5,067 1.2% 1,348 26.4% 80 0.0% (66) 24.2% 308 10.7% (576) (332) 9.9% 5,829 5.3% 184
1,652 33.8% 28 32.1% 180 54.4% 6,156 4.2% 3,259 +0.6% 2,897 +8.2% 6,156 +4.2% (1,684) 26.4% 16.5% 147 n.s.
43 43
(1) FY2015 Hydro production includes 269 GWh related to Asta Cellina (2) Net of intermediated Ipex volumes
(1) (2)
44 44
UM 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Exchange rate €/$ €/$ 1.11 1.11 1.06 1.08 1.11 1.13 1.16 ICE Brent €/bbl 48.4 40.7 54.5 56.5 57.7 61.1 60.3 Coal API 2 €/tonn 51.2 54.0 65.0 60.2 56.8 55.8 54.3 CO2 (EUA ETS) €/tonn 7.7 5.4 5.3 5.6 6.4 7.2 8.0 AEEGSI Gas Tariff (Pfor) €c/mc 22.9 15.6 19.6 18.0 17.3 17.2 17.7 PSV €/MWh 22.0 15.6 19.8 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.2 TTF €/MWh 19.8 14.0 18.1 16.8 16.2 16.1 16.5 PUN Base Load €/MWh 52.3 42.7 46.9 47.6 48.2 49.2 49.2 PUN Peak Load €/MWh 58.7 48.2 50.9 53.6 54.2 55.2 55.2 CCGT Gas Cost (PSV) €/MWh 49.8 37.6 46.8 43.9 43.7 43.5 43.3 Peak Spark Spread €/MWh 8.9 10.5 4.1 9.7 10.5 11.7 11.9 Spark Spread (PSV) €/MWh 2.5 5.1 0.1 3.7 4.5 5.7 5.9 Clean Spark Spread (PSV) €/MWh
3.1
1.6 2.1 3.0 2.9 Dark Spread €/MWh 23.3 12.5 13.1 15.8 17.9 19.3 20.0 White Certificates €/Toe 104.2 145.5 130.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0
45 45
2016 Ordinary 231 2017 262
Urban waste treatment
72
Other treatment and collection
7 2021 341
* 2016 excluding one-off equal to 9€M and including LGH consolidated only for 5 months ** 2017 excluding one-off equal to 1€M
2016 Ordinary 231 2017 262
Collection
5
Existing treatment plants (price and efficiency)
24
Volumes
treatment plants
61
Costs (mainly Labour)
2021 341
* ** * **
CAGR +6.8% CAGR +8.1%
Breakdown by BU sub-segment Breakdown by growth driver
Urban waste treatment Other treatment and collection Collection Existing treatment plants (price and efficiency) Costs (mainly labour) Volumes
treatment plants
46 46
Existing treatment plants
landfills
New treatment plants Business Plan assumptions Driver
plastic treatment
47 47
2016 Ordinary 120 2017 135 Power Market 44 Gas Market 33 Fixed costs
Value Added Services 7 2021 192 *2016 excluding one-off equal to 24€M and including LGH consolidated only for 5 months ** 2017 excluding one-off equal to 6€M
* **
CAGR +9.9% CAGR +9.2%
* **
Breakdown by BU sub-segment Breakdown by growth driver
Regulated market
48 48
Customer Base
Unitary Margin
Fixed costs
Business Plan Assumptions Driver
(1) Assuming current regulatory and market structure continuity (2) Mass market unitary margin – Residential and small business customers – excluding regulated components
49 49
2016 Ordinary 117 124 33 69
354
2017 Ordinary 126 126 40 90 17
399
EE
GAS 22 IWC 22 DH 10 PL 8 2021P 148 122 62 100 25
457
.
11
2016 Ordinary 285 69 354 2017 Ordinary 309 90 399
Tariffs (Gas/El./Water)
10
Gas tender
30
Public Lighting
8
Commercial Development
9
Energy Efficiency
3
Scenario
2021 P 357 100 457
Networks District Heating
* CAGR +6.6% CAGR +5.2% * 2016 excluding one-off equal to 43€M and including LGH consolidated only for 5 months ** 2017 excluding one-off equal to 23€M **
Heating Networks
* **
Breakdown by BU sub- segment Breakdown by growth driver
50 50
Gas tenders Public Lighting
Commercial development
capacity)
Energy Efficiency
certificate” origination
51 51
* 2016 excluding one-off equal to 52€M and including LGH consolidated only for 5 months ** 2017 excluding one-off equal to 5€M * ** * CAGR -3% CAGR +2.8% **
Ordinary
Breakdown by BU sub-segment Breakdown by growth driver
52 52
Hydro & Coal
CCGT plants
‒ Expected increase of “thermal” demand of ~10 TWh, to be supplied by CCGT ‒ Best positioned CCGT : ‒ Located in the North ‒ With spare capacity
Capacity & Ancillary Markets
EU
SFM
53 53
54 54
1H 2016
614
1H 2017
649
1H 2016
2,323
1H 2017
2,918
FY 2016
3,136
1H 2017
3,047
1H 2016
254
1H 2017
157
1H 2016
212
1H 2017
252
REVENUES EBITDA GROUP NET INCOME NET FINANCIAL POSITION
€M
+26%
+6% GROUP ORDINARY NET INCOME* +19%
* Excluding extraordinary items
CCGT performance, MGP and MSD LGH: standalone growth and FY consolidation Non recurring YoY comparison Organic growth in DH, Networks and Waste EPCG put option exercise effects 1st Plastic Treatment Plant in construction ASVT and Patavina Tech acquisitions MoU with “Utilities
extended to September Project Mistral on
Kicked off
With impact on 2017 1H economics
2nd Plastic Treatment Plant construction authorisation granted
55 55
2016
614
2016 Ordinary
534 29 6 22 34 2
604 45
2017
649
2016 Non Recurring Items/ redundancy schemes Gener & Trading Energy Retail Waste Networks & District Heating Smart City Corporate EPCG 2017 Ordinary 2017 Non Recurring Items/ redundancy schemes
€M
+35 +70
56 56
2016
170
2016 Non Recurring Items
2016 Ordinary
156
27 4 2 3
13
LGH
4
2017 Ordinary
185 1
2017
186
Environ. Market Plants' Hedging and Dispatching Trading Portfolio Other Fixed costs SFM EBITDA Gas Margin 2017 Non Recurring Items
+16 +29
€M
57 57 2016 73
2016 Ordinary 66 Power Market
Gas Market 2 Fixed Costs
Other LGH 9 2017 Ordinary 72 5 2017 77 2016 Non Recurring Items 2017 Non Recurring Items
+4 +6
unbalancing costs (price effect)
€M
58 58
2016 36 80 119 2016 Non Recurring Items
2016 Ordinary 36 72 111 Collection
Urban Waste Treatment Plants 5 Other Treatment Plants 3 International Projects LGH 17 2017 Ordinary 17 77 33 133 4 2017 18 80 33 137 2 1 2 1 1 5 2017 Non Recurring Items 1 5
+18
Other Treatment Plants Collection Urban Waste Treatment Plants
+22
prices and quantities
International Projects
€M
Collection +2.9€M Treatment +14.7€M
59 59 2016 53 60 66 42 6 227 2016 Ordinary 52 60 14 44 6 176 Electricity Networks 2 Gas Networks 4 Water Cycle 3 District Heating 10 Public Lighting 1 LGH 14 2017 Ordinary 17 56 62 14 54 7 210 2017 16 58 64 15 85 7 245 2016 Non Recurring Items 51 2017 Non Recurring Items 35
+18 +34
Gas Networks Electricity Networks Water Cycle Public Lighting Heating
and temperature effect
€M
LGH (Networks & Heating)
60 60 2016
13 22 35 Generation and Retail
Distribution
2017
13
12
Energy Distribution
Low hydro production (-55%): higher import (at very high prices)
€M
61 61
1H 2017 EBITDA 649 Change in Net Working Capital
Change in
assets/ liabilities
Use of Funds
Tax Paid
Net Financial Expenses
FFO (1) 413 Capex
Dividends
Free Cash Flow 89 Share Buyback 89 Net Free Cash Flow 1H 2017 EBITDA 649 D&A
Risk Provisions
Non rec. transact. 1 4 Net Financial Expenses
EBT 278 Taxes
Net result from discontinued
1 Minorities
1H 2017 Net Income 157 Investments carried at equity EPCG write-down and put option discount
€M
(1) -95€M, of which:
(1) (2) Funds from operations after working capital change (2)
62 62
BREAKDOWN BY ACTIVITY BREAKDOWN BY BUSINESS +41 +41
€M
2016 8 28 78 1 10 130 2017 11 42 98
9 4 4 171 2 3 3
Generation & Trading Energy Retail Waste Networks and District Heating Corporate A2A Smart City EPCG
2016
61 58 11 130
2017
67 78
13
13 171
Maintenance Development Mandatory M&A
63 63
EPCG Expected 2H EBITDA
Delta EBITDA
Fair Value Adj. of the investment in EPCG to the Put Option NPV
A2A Share
2H expected Net Income
Delta Group Net Income
EPCG Positive NFP as of 30/06/17
Delta Net Financial Position
In H1 17 accounts, the new valuation of EPCG led to a total write-down of 95 €M, of which:
value to the PUT Option value (250 €M);
seven equivalent annual cash in instalments (starting from May 2018)
64 64
EBITDA GUIDANCE
MAY 10, 2017 2H EPCG DECONSOLIDATION EFFECT -30€M HIGHER FULL YEAR NON RECURRING ~+25€M
1.170 1.190 1.140 1.160 1.165 1.185
€M €M €M
FREE CASH FLOW
~100€M
65 65 EBITDA Ordinary D&A Provisions EBIT Net Financial Expenses Associates & JV EBT Taxes Minorities GROUP NET INCOME 1H 2016 1H 2017 %
+5.7%
+69.4%
n.s.
REVENUES
+25.6%
CHANGE
+25
+10 +595 649 (209) (11) 369 (96) 4 278 (119) (3) 614 (198) (36) 380 (63) 4 373 (106) (13) 254 2,918 2,323
Result from non
n.s.
1 52
157
Net result from discontinued operations
n.s. +1 1
EPCG write-off
n.s.
(60)
€M H1’17 ANNEXES H1’17 ANNEXES
66 66
Intangible Assets Shareholdings and Other Non Current Financial Assets Other Non Current Assets/Liabilities Deferred Tax Assets and Liabilities Provisions for Risks, Charges and Liabilities for landfills Employee Benefits NET FIXED CAPITAL Inventories Trade receivables and other current Assets
31.12.2016 Restated 30.06.2017
%
Tangible Assets
5,129
Current tax Assets/Liabilities WORKING CAPITAL AND OTHER CURRENT ASSETS/LIABILITIES TOTAL CAPITAL EMPLOYED Equity Net Financial Position TOTAL SOURCES
1,704 80 (82) 341 (671) (365) 6,136 159 2,210 37 278 6,415 3,279 3,136 6,415
Trade payables and other current Liabilities
(2,128)
Non current Assets /Liabilities held for sale
1 4,979
1,709 0.3% 76
(76)
297
(636) (348)
6,001
168 5.7% 1,878
(30) n.s. 356 +28.1% 6,358
3,311 +1.0% 3,047
6,358
(1,660)
1 n.s.
€M H1’17 ANNEXES H1’17 ANNEXES
67 67
Bond s Loans
€M
2017 50 50 2018 300 96 396 2019 567 99 666 2020 145 145 2021 430 95 525 2022 500 91 591 2023 300 86 386 2024 300 64 364 2025 300 65 365 2026 47 Beyond 2026 98 180 278 47
H1’17 ANNEXES H1’17 ANNEXES
68 68
RELAUNCH
granted
‒ waste collection for 160k inhabitants in 49 municipalities in Cremona area ‒ start-up of subsidiary rationalization
REGENERATION RESHAPE
regeneration program
electrical setup to serve Unareti EV fleet
hydraulicity
H1’17 ANNEXES H1’17 ANNEXES
69 69
DISCIPLINE, DIALOGUE & DIGITAL
started the lean roll-out in Q2
focus on Listening, Needs and Change
Social Responsibility
awarded ISO 50001: 2011 – Energy Management System certification for its WTE plants in Brescia, Milan and Corteolona
digital relationships with customers
system for networks: adoption of mobile technologies to maximize efficiency
ADDITIONAL
MoU extended to the end of September
H1’17 ANNEXES H1’17 ANNEXES
70 70
(1) Net of intermediated Ipex volumes
( 1 )
H1’17 ANNEXES H1’17 ANNEXES
71 71
(1) Gas at virtual trading point (2) Pfor 162/14 Oct 2014-Mar 2016. (3) hourly average for each month (4) based on gas at virtual trading point with 51% efficiency; includes transport costs (5) 35% efficiency - includes cost spread on API2 and transport cost
Average data 1H 2016 1H 2017 D % vs 2016 Brent $/bbl 41,0 52,8 29% CO2 - EU ETS cost €/Tonn 5,7 5,0
Green Certificates €/MWh 99,6 0,0
€/$ €/$ 1,1 1,1
Brent € €/bbl 36,7 48,9 33% PSV(1) €/MWh 14,6 19,3 32% AEEGSI Gas Tariff (2) c€/mc 16,0 19,1 19% Coal € (API2) €/Tonn 42,0 72,9 74% PUN baseload(3) €/MWh 37,0 51,2 38% PUN peak(3) €/MWh 40,9 57,4 40% PUN off-peak(3) €/MWh 34,9 47,7 37% CCGT gas cost(4) €/MWh 35,3 45,5 29% Spark Spread CCGT_PSV vs Baseload €/MWh 1,7 5,6 n.a. Spark Spread CCGT_PSV vs Peakload €/MWh 5,6 11,8 n.a. Spark Spread CCGT_PSV vs Off-Peak €/MWh
2,2 n.a. Clean Spark Spread vs Baseload €/MWh
3,8 n.a. Clean Spark Spread vs Peakload €/MWh 3,4 9,9 n.a. Clean Dark Spread vs Baseload(5) €/MWh 6,2 9,3 50%
H1’17 ANNEXES H1’17 ANNEXES
72 72
A2A Investor Relations Team Mail: ir@a2a.eu Phone: +39 02 7720 3974 http://www.a2a.eu/en/investor/
a2a 2017 Investor Guidebook Investor Databook (excel file)
Concise and thorough insight in the A2A Group in the form of a long presentation divided into three main parts: Our World, Our Results and Our
which you may find spread across a large number of Company documents
model – 2015 FY reported and 2016-20 BP forecast
Periodic update for investors and analysts
– such as relevant investments, new projects, achievements, contracts, agreements. https://www.a2a.eu/en/investors/documen ts#BPN Brief and synthetic document that shows the highlights and the strengths of A2A business model Moreover A2A publishes the following documents in the Investor Library Section on A2A website:
The publications are available at the following link: http://www.a2a.eu/en/investor/guidebook/
a2a 2017 Company Profile
This document has been prepared by A2A solely for investors and analysts. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe any shares or other securities and neither it nor any part of it shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Some information contained herein and other material discussed at the meetings may include forward-looking information based
inherent risks and uncertainties. We caution you that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Such factors include, but are not limited to changes in global economic business, changes in the price of certain commodities including electricity, gas and coal, the competitive market and regulatory factors. Moreover, forward-looking statements are current only at the date on which they are made.