A PRESENTATION TO The American Chamber of Commerce by SA Politics - - PDF document

SA Politics and Policy Status Quo and Way Forward E-Mail: coenraad.bezuidenhout@fticonsulting.com Tel: +27 82 074 9693 Twitter: @CoenraadB

A PRESENTATION TO The American Chamber of Commerce by 1

Political party responsiveness to electoral stimuli Political Succession Disaggregation in labour, politics and socially

3 Key Drivers in a Defined Institutional Framework Determine our Political & Economic Future

2

Party-List Electoral System Weak Institutionalisation

• f Policy and Execution

Social Corporatist model

• f engagement between

business government and labour Strong Financial & Legal Institutions

Where Are We Now?

3

Rapid Successions

• f Capitulations

for President Zuma

• Nenegate
• #FeesMustFall
• Nkandla

SONA & Budget

• Toeing Treasury

Line

August 2016 Local Government Elections ANC Policy Conference

• June/July 2017

ANC Elective Congress

• December 2017

Quo Vadis?

• 2018, 2019 &

Beyond

2016 Best probability for a leadership change in government?

What are the likelihood of policy changes and greater policy certainty? What Are the Likely Leadership Succession Scenarios?

Critical indicator of President’s remaining influence. 2017

• State Capture Alllegations
• SOE Boards
• Abuse of state institutions
• Policy Climbdowns
• Inability to for succession battle policy

contest to gain traction in government arena

Competitive leadership succession rather than anointed

What have we learnt from the ANC policy conference?

4

Going into the policy conference, the policy discussion documents indicated that policy discussion within the ANC may once again be on a much more rational footing Key area of concern: Consideration of centrality of Treasury to government programme execution could lead to further neutering There was a significant rehabilitation of NDP in ANC policy parlance (result of Radebe being head of ANC policy process?) throughout, but verbatim use of NDP priorities in areas of:

• Agriculture and agro-processing
• Minerals and metals
• Manufacturing
• Construction and infrastructure
• Finance
• Retail and business services
• Tourism
• Public sector employment
• Labour market reforms

Proposals around energy draws verbatim on Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) and Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and includes tentative exploration of unbundling of generation and distribution at Eskom Coming out of the Conference: Zuma faction failed to promote its policy positions. Ramaphosa faction resisted well, but failed to put any new proposals on the table or advance narrative of future under Ramaphosa as President Key thing to remember: ANC Policy Conference took no resolutions on policy, but only made recommendations to structures.

Why did President Zuma emerge weaker from the #NoConfidence vote on 8 August?

5

President already lost support of ANC Caucus since nuclear debate +/- October 2015 Split in ANC votes unprecedented and came despite and came despite severe disincentivisation…

• …(1.) of party leadership

accountability via pr/list system; and,

• …(2.) of removing the

President because of the instability it could have caused in the ANC and by extension in the country, possibly in the run up to 2019 election

ANC has been weakened by the

• pportunity

#NoConfidence has provided to reassociate the President with the ANC to the benefit of the opposition, leaving the President weaker by extension

Seven candidates for ANC Presidency so far

DP Cyril Ramaphosa Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma TG Zweli Mkhize

Chair Baleka

Mbete Min Jeff Radebe Min Linidiwe Sisulu Matthews Phosa

Formal nominations

• nly open in

September Delegate lists only finalised in September: Prospect of gerrymandering in the run-up of finalisation Post finalisation of delegate lists: Possibility of vote buying Electoral Conference: December

Succession: Where are we?

6 Strongest anti-Zuma prospects. Likely to draw support from similar constituencies inside ANC. Strongest pro-Zuma prospect. Likely to draw support from similar constituencies inside ANC. Possible interim President, but unlikely to be strong candidate for ANC presidency Positioning for Deputy President Outside candidate

Succession: Cyril Ramaphosa vs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma

7

Cyril Ramaphosa Nkosazana Dlamini- Zuma

Key Political Advantage Deputy President of the ANC President’s Anointee Political Capital Consensus building Patronage Recent Successes Agreement on wage subsidy and labour stability, key endorsements AU tenure Provinces Limpopo, Gauteng, Parts of KZN, Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Northern Cape Freestate, Mpumalanga, Parts

• f KZN, North West

Structures NEC Woman, Military Veterans Key Present Disadvantage Differentiated messaging speaking to key ANC constituencies Strong momentum in ANC for a more rational policy basis

ANC Elective Conference Possible Scenario: A numbers game…

8

Structure 2012 Delegates Ramaphosa Dlamini-Zuma

KZN 974 ? ? Eastern Cape 676 x Limpopo 574 x Gauteng 500 x Mpumalanga 476 x Freestate 324 x North West 234 x Western Cape 178 x Northern Cape 178 x Further allocation from province governing structures 180 1/2 1/2 Youth, Women and Veterans 135 (45 each) ? ? NEC 82 2/3 1/3 Total 4511 +/-2800 +/-1700

Evolution of Business-Government Cooperation

9

Prior to 1994

• Distrust between business

& government flourished as demands of progressive business and black labour came into conflict with Apartheid state

After 1994

• Social corporatist

tripartite +1 engagement in NEDLAC

• Overreliance on high-level

agreement undermining bottom-up pact building

• Failure to contain

disaggregation due to rigid cooperation mechanisms

Response to Social Dialogue Failure

• Move towards flexible

cooperation mechanisms such as Joint CEO and Presidential Process on Minimum Wage

• Characterised by strong

social dialogue constituency leadership and small group of principals with less rigid mandating processes

Conclusion & Way Forward

10

• President Zuma’s faction very weak, but electoral system and ANC

stability imperative preventing his removal

• Strong possibility of gerrymandering and vote buying despite,

there is a good chance of a non-Zuma anointee winning ANC succession

• Momentum in ANC to coalesce around a more rational policy

platform rather than patronage

• Key Concern 1: Treasury
• Key Concern 2: Institutional reform to support growth (electoral

system and social dialogue)

• Key Concern 3: Corruption – New approach required

Thank You Coenraad Bezuidenhout Head of Public Affairs and Government Relations Advisory at FTI Consulting 082 074 9692 coenraad.bezuidenhout@fticonsulting.com Twitter: @CoenraadB