A Paradox of Riches Economic Dynamism in an Age of Decline and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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A Paradox of Riches Economic Dynamism in an Age of Decline and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 17, 2023 123 likes •447 views

A Paradox of Riches Economic Dynamism in an Age of Decline and Instability What goes up must come down But the American Stock Exchanges are 5x that of any other exchange in the world Growth and innovation in many sectors (not all) are

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A Paradox of Riches Economic Dynamism in an Age of Decline and Instability

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  • What goes up must come down
  • But the American Stock Exchanges are 5x that of any other

exchange in the world

  • Growth and innovation in many sectors (not all) are

exceptional

  • The business environment is exceptional
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Political and Social Instability

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  • Most corporations and even leading members of the

Republican party—including President George W. Bush—have expressed concern about the direction of the country and its social fabric

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  • How to invest in a time of exuberance and folly?
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  • CAREFULLY
  • And like an accountant
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  • Things to consider:
  • Tax cuts
  • Corporate tax cuts
  • We have had growth without them and it is not sure they can be

attained.

  • How does America work and not work? Where are the pitfalls?
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US Population Growth Trends… look familiar?

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  • How does one invest?
  • With expertise and hundreds of analysts in each sector
  • Of course!!!
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  • What is not always obvious?
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  • This is where accounting and auditing come in
  • We can see bubbles, investment, income and leverage

disparities on top of other data

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  • Real investors do not do the obvious
  • So look for pitfalls
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US DEBT TO GDP

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  • Instability
  • Inequality (geography)
  • Debt
  • Over-leveraging
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Over leveraged? Look very closely

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Real Estate: Dutch History Helps again

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Amsterdam: Herengracht

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The US: A short history

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Look to the Future

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  • U.S. ECONOMY
  • California Leads U.S. Economy, Away From Trump
  • Whatever the president says, this state does the opposite. It's

working.

BLOOMBERG

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  • How to invest in the US right now?
  • Balance sheet analysis
  • And FAR BEYOND
  • CARE, EXPERTISE, ON THE GROUND CULTURAL

KNOWLEDGE

  • And hire 200 top analysts and still go over the numbers

yourself

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  • Do political and social stability matter?
  • Does management culture (and leveraging) matter?
  • Do accounting standards matter?
  • Tread carefully
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Jacob Soll, USC

Basic Books, April, 2014