A Modelers Achilles Heel and SGMA Success by CWEMF Annual Meeting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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A Modelers Achilles Heel and SGMA Success by CWEMF Annual Meeting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 17, 2023 373 likes •501 views

A Modelers Achilles Heel and SGMA Success by CWEMF Annual Meeting Saquib Najmus, Ph.D., P.E., PMP April 2, 2018 Thanks to the CWEMF for the Hugo B. Fischer award Credit belongs to a lot of people My first supervisor late Dr.

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A Modeler’s Achilles Heel and SGMA Success

by

Saquib Najmus, Ph.D., P.E., PMP

CWEMF Annual Meeting April 2, 2018

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SLIDE 2
  • Thanks to the CWEMF for the

Hugo B. Fischer award

  • Credit belongs to a lot of

people

  • My first supervisor late Dr. Young

Yoon

  • Ali Taghavi and Tariq Kadir
  • My colleagues over the last 30

years – too many to name

  • My family
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SLIDE 3

KNOWN UNKNOWN

Hydrologic Modelers Deal with Both Known and Unknown

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Johari Window of Known and Unknown

JOE AND HARRY- JOHARI

  • Joseph Luft & Harry Ingham
  • Group dynamics study at UCLA in 1955
  • 56 personality attributes cards were

distributed to subject (self) and others

  • Results are sorted into 4 groups

Unknown

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SLIDE 5

Let’s look at a real-life application

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Unknown Unknown Modeler’s Dilemma: When to Stop Calibration?

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Modelers Face Abundance of Disagreements!

Young Lady Old Lady

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Key Insights!

“All models are wrong, but some are useful. The practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful.”

William of Ockham (1285-1347) Philosopher and Theologian

George Box (1919-2013) Statistician

Occam’s Razor: When presented with competing hypothetical answers to a problem, one should select the one that makes the fewest assumptions.

“The purpose of a hydrologic model is to support resource management

  • decisions. All other

truths on this subject are merely derivative.”

CWEMF 2005 Annual Meeting

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SLIDE 9

Resource Management Decisions Must Overcome Conflicts Between Facts and Values

SCIENTIFIC FACTS things that are known to be true PUBLIC VALUES things that are regarded as desirable

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The Missing Link!

Effective Communication

  • f Technical

Information

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The Missing Link of Effective Communication of Technical Information

Effective Communication

  • f Technical

Information

The Missing Link!

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Effective Communication of Modeling Results is Key to SGMA Success

We Modelers Got to Do It!