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A Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model Approach for Evaluating CarbonTracker A. Andrews 1 , A. Hirsch 2 , A. Michalak 3 , C. Sweeney 2 , S. Wofsy 4 , J. Eluszkiewicz 5 , T. Nehrkorn 5 , A. Jacobson 2 , K. Masarie 1 , W. Peters 2,6 , K. Croasdale

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A Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model Approach for Evaluating CarbonTracker

  • A. Andrews1, A. Hirsch2, A. Michalak3, C. Sweeney2, S. Wofsy4,
  • J. Eluszkiewicz5, T. Nehrkorn5, A. Jacobson2 , K. Masarie1,
  • W. Peters2,6, K. Croasdale7, P. Tans1

1NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305 2Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado,

Boulder, CO 80309

3 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Department of Atmospheric,

Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109

4Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 5Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA 02421 6Wageningen University and Research Center, Wageningen, 6708 PB, the Netherlands 7Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois, Springfield, IL 62703

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http://carbontracker.noaa.gov http://carbontracker.noaa.gov

CarbonTracker Overview Optimization step is Ensemble Kalman Filter

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http://carbontracker.noaa.gov http://carbontracker.noaa.gov

Mechanics Optimized Specified

FIRES= GFED2

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http://carbontracker.noaa.gov http://carbontracker.noaa.gov

Mechanics Optimized Specified

FIRES= GFED2

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Sensitivity = 0 Sensitivity > 0 PBL height Sensitivity = 0 Sensitivity > 0 PBL height

Time (hours) Altitude (m)

Footprint [ppm per unit flux]

CarbonTracker

Initial Condition (CarbonTracker)

∑∑

= =

+ =

N p t t BC meas

f

FLUX SENS N CO CO

2 2

* 1

Sampling Footprints Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Modeling Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport Model

  • 24 hours
  • 48 hours
  • 72 hours
  • 96 hours
  • 120 hours
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Sensitivity = 0 Sensitivity > 0 PBL height Sensitivity = 0 Sensitivity > 0 PBL height

Time (hours) Altitude (m)

Footprint [ppm per unit flux]

CarbonTracker

Initial Condition (CarbonTracker)

∑∑

= =

+ =

N p t t BC meas

f

FLUX SENS N CO CO

2 2

* 1

Sampling Footprints Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Modeling Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport Model

  • 24 hours
  • 48 hours
  • 72 hours
  • 96 hours
  • 120 hours
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Normalized Footprint: Linear Color Scale Composite: MAY-JULY 2004 LEF, 19GMT Note: Footprints are time-resolved, but shown as 10-day composite

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Normalized Footprint: Log10 Color Scale Composite: MAY-JULY 2004 LEF, 19GMT

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0-0.1 0.1-0.2 0.2-0.3 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.5 0.5-0.6 0.6-0.7 0.7 -0.9 Cumulative Surface Sensitivity

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0-0.1 0.1-0.2 0.2-0.3 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.5 0.5-0.6 0.6-0.7 0.7 -1.0

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Fraction of Particles

  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

Days <2km <1km < Model Mixed Layer Height STILT BOUNDARY LAYER RESIDENCE TIME

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OBS CT

LEF TOWER: PARK FALLS, WI 396 magl

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OBS CT

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OBS CT STILT-WRF-CT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD

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COBRA 2004 (Harvard) MLO

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OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD

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CT R2 =0.87 STILT R2=0.89 OBSERVED CO2 , ppm MODELED CO2, ppm

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AMT: JUNE-JULY 2004 19:00 GMT (TOWER) OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD

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AMT: JUNE-JULY 2004 19:00 GMT (TOWER) OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD + COBRA 2004 (HARVARD)

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OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD CT R2 =0.56 (0.67) STILT R2=0.29 (0.65)

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AMT: JUNE-JULY 2004 19:00 GMT (TOWER) OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD AMT: JUNE-JULY 2004 19:00 GMT (TOWER) OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD

JULY 18, 19:00 GMT

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AMT: JUNE-JULY 2004 19:00 GMT (TOWER) OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD AMT: JUNE-JULY 2004 19:00 GMT (TOWER) OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD

JULY 19, 19:00 GMT

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AMT: JUNE-JULY 2004 19:00 GMT (TOWER) OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD AMT: JUNE-JULY 2004 19:00 GMT (TOWER) OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD

JUly 25, 19:00 GMT

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COBRA-MAINE: HARVARD UNIVERSITY/NSF & NOAA 7 MAY – 16 AUGUST 2004 33 FLIGHTS Wyoming King Air NSF paid for equipment & establishing AMT tower site under this project

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COBRA: 2004-07-30 AMT OVERFLIGHT

+ +

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+

COBRA: 2004-07-30

300m agl

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COBRA: 2004-07-30

3200m agl

+

Free troposphere has much smaller surface sensitivity than boundary layer strongly driven by initial condition.

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July/Aug 2004 OBS STILT-WRF-CT CT interp May/Jun 2004 OBS STILT-WRF-CT CT interp

Altitude, m above ground level Carbon Dioxide, ppm 360 365 370 375 380 385 1000 2000 3000 4000

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July/Aug 2004 OBS STILT-WRF-CT CT interp May/Jun 2004 OBS STILT-WRF-CT CT interp

Altitude, m above ground level Carbon Dioxide, ppm 360 365 370 375 380 385 1000 2000 3000 4000 More/Earlier drawdown needed in Spring?

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July/Aug 2004 OBS STILT-WRF-CT CT interp May/Jun 2004 OBS STILT-WRF-CT CT interp

Altitude, m above ground level Carbon Dioxide, ppm 360 365 370 375 380 385 1000 2000 3000 4000

  • Differences are due to model transport.
  • Keep in mind that fluxes have been optimized

using CT.

  • Aircraft data were not optimized.
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Summary Points

  • Lagrangian models can provide insight into the mechanics of CarbonTracker
  • Diagnose patterns and residuals
  • Footprint information can inform decisions about how to weight different

types of data

  • Generally good agreement between STILT-WRF-CT and CarbonTracker is

encouraging—STILT tends to predict lower CO2 near the surface

  • “Campaign” data are valuable independent datasets for CarbonTracker

evaluation: e.g, COBRA-2003, COBRA-2004, TEXAS AQS 2006, ARCPAC- 2008, START-08, HIPPO

  • Footprints are generic and can be used to interpret mixing ratio

measurements of other species (halocarbons, COS, isotopes, etc.)

  • Other LPDMS are in use around ESRL: FLEXPART, CSU LPDM, HYSPLIT
  • We are working toward building an archive of footprints that can be linked to

the GMD database

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OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD

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OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD

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OBS CT STILT CT ~4KM AC OBS >3.5 KM STILT-BKGRD

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CT R2 =0.64 (0.87) STILT R2=0.65 (0.85)

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