A half-Century Record of State-by-State Changes in Fossil- Fuel - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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A half-Century Record of State-by-State Changes in Fossil- Fuel - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 26, 2023 130 likes •389 views

A half-Century Record of State-by-State Changes in Fossil- Fuel Carbon Emissions and Corresponding Isotope Ratios in the United States T. J. Blasing Independent Scholar Presented at the NOAA, GMD, ESRL Annual Conference, May

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A half-Century Record of State-by-State Changes in Fossil- Fuel Carbon Emissions and Corresponding Isotope Ratios in the United States

  • T. J. Blasing Independent Scholar

Presented at the NOAA, GMD, ESRL Annual Conference, May 20, 2013

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“I married you for better or for worse but not for lunch; find something to get yourself outta the house when you retire.”

  • - - - Carolyn Blasing
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Sponsors: WORK Sponsor: TRAVEL

T.J. and Carolyn Blasing Vacation Fund

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http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/state_emissions.cfm

State by state energy related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel back to 1980 Available from T.J. Blasing t.j.blasing@outlook.com State by state energy related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel back to 1980 1960

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* Things have changed:

  • 1. We now assume 100% Combustion.
  • 2. Some heat and carbon coefficients have changed slightly.
  • 3. Some fuel-use figures have been refined.
  • 4. Other changes (See North Dakota)

Recalculate all emissions from SEDS data.* Calculate emissions through 2010 by same method. Calculate EIA/TJ for 1980-1984 Multiply TJ 1960’s and 1970’s by ratio TJ X EIA TJ Use the result for 1960s and 70s USE EIA numbers for 1980 forward VOILA !! Continuous time series.

Recalculate Emissions. Unite the 2 data sets.

Methods

TJB data

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19 9 22 12 47 19

  • 0.1 CT

0.2 DE

  • 1 DC

51 37 3 2 12 25 13 10 27 39 2 6 MD

  • 0.3 MA

10 12 13 22 7 8 9 3 8 NJ 10

  • 10

25 11 11 19 6 2

  • 1 RI

16 2 14

112

12 1 12 13 14 11 15

Change in C Emissions 1960-2010 TOTAL = + 742 Change in C Emissions 1960-2010 (Tg-C)

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  • 11
  • 16

Tg-C

Change in C Emissions 2000-2010 (Tg-C)

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2.3 10.1 2.9 0.8

  • 0.7

1.0

  • 0.7
  • 1.2 CT
  • 3.1 DE
  • 1.3 DC

0.4 2.2 0.8 2.5

  • 0.2 1.8

4.0 2.4 4.9 6.6 0.2

  • 1.1 MD
  • 0.9 MA

0.0 1.0 3.6 2.6 5.4 3.5 0.6

  • 0.4 NJ

1.9

  • 1.0

0.9 16.4 0.0 3.6 0.2

  • 0.5
  • 1.3 RI

2.0 1.2 0.2 0.2

  • 0.2

0.1

  • 0.7

0.3 7.5 0.6 23.8 Change in Per Capita Carbon Emissions 1960-2010

Change in Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Mg/person-year) 1960-2010

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Change in Per Capita Carbon Emissions (Mg/person-year) 2000-2010

NJ

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Change in δ13C (per mil) in Emitted Fossil-Fuel Carbon: 2000-2010 1960-2010

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Change in δ13C in Emitted Fossil-fuel Carbon 2000-2010

Change in δ13C (per mil) in Emitted Fossil-Fuel Carbon: 2000-2010

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Carbon Emissions from the 50 United States and the District of Columbia

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Carbon Emissions from the 50 United States and the District of Columbia

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Emissions (Tg-C)

550/700 ≈ 80% (through 2012) Table 12.1 Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy Consumption by Source U.S. Energy Information Administration / Monthly Energy Review April 2014 Decrease of 132 Tg-C since 2000

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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Emissions (Tg-C)

8 Northeastern States -- by fuel Coal Oil Gas

CT, MA, ME, NH, NJ, NY, RI, VT 85/140 ≈ 60% 85/120 ≈ 70%

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0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Net Generation (PW-h)

Net Generation from Coal and Natural Gas

Coal Gas Total

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Increase in coal exports = 38.5 Tg-C; increase in natural gas exports = 19.4 Tg-C Total increase in exported carbon = 57.9 Tg-C Using MER heat coefficients and EPA carbon coefficients emissions.

Metallurgical Coal Steam Coal

Million short tons of coal

Total coal

U.S. annual exports by country of destination back to 2000 INTERACTIVE Coal Data Browser http://www.eia.gov/coal/data.cfm#imports Last accessed 14 May 2014

U.S. Coal Exports

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Kaya I dentity and Related Concepts

p

  • GDP
  • e ●

= c p GDP

p = population GDP = gross domestic product e = energy c = fossil carbon emitted Fc = airborne fraction Δc = change in atmospheric carbon

affluence term energy intensity

p ● GDP ● c ● Fc = Δc p GDP c e

population carbon-cycle dependent carbon emitted rate of carbon accumulation carbonization factor carbon intensity

I = P • A • T

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No wonder we’re losing !!! E C GDP GDP

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20 40 60 80 100 120 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Tg-C

Texas Oil

CDIAC EIA

Carbon Emissions from Texas Oil