A"Global"Inflec-on"Point?"" - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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A"Global"Inflec-on"Point?"" - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 21, 2022 506 likes •774 views

A"Global"Inflec-on"Point?"" The"Post5Crisis"World"Economy"in" Historical"Perspec-ve" SIC,%Dallas,%May%27,%2016% Looks%like%my%former%boss%is%winning%the%debate%

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A"Global"Inflec-on"Point?""

The"Post5Crisis"World"Economy"in" Historical"Perspec-ve"

SIC,%Dallas,%May%27,%2016%

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Looks%like%my%former%boss%is%winning%the%debate%

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It’s%downward%revision%Bme%yet%again%

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Secular%stagnaBon%fears%are%up%

Source:%IMF%

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But%did%we%miss%the%inflecBon%point?%

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For%the%U.S.,%February%was%the%trough%

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For%the%Eurozone%and%China%too%

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Only%Japan%didn’t%bounce%aQer%February%

Source:%Fulcrum%

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SLIDE 9

Even%the%Atlanta%Fed%is%cheerful%about%Q2%

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This%is%what%Reinhart%and%Rogoff%told%us%to%expect%

Source:%Reinhart%and%Rogoff%(2009)%

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Source:%Reinhart%and%Rogoff%(2009)%

Somewhere%between%5%and%10%years%…%

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Other%signs%of%inflecBon?%

0" 50" 100" 150" 200" 250" 1980M1" 1985M1" 1990M1" 1995M1" 2000M1" 2005M1" 2010M1" 2015M1" 2010=100%

Commodity%price%indices,%198062016%

PFOOD" PBEVE" PINDU" PRAWM" PMETA" PNRG" POILAPSP"

Source:%IMF%

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Commodity%prices%YTD%

  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Soybean Meal Heating oil Gas oil Lean Hogs Brent Crude West Texas Intermediate Gasoline Soybean Lumber Silver Gold Zinc Ethanol Platinum Tin Sugar Shanghai Aluminum Shanghai Zinc Shanghai Steel Rebar Corn Orange Juice European coal Crude Palm Oil Rubber Aluminum Australian coal Rough Rice Bean Oil Wheat Palladium Coffee 'C' Copper Cotton COMEX Copper Nickel Shanghai Copper Lead Cocoa Natural Gas Live Cattle Cattle Feeder ICE Natural Gas

Commodity prices % change YTD (23 May) Source:%Bloomberg%

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Back%come%some%EM%equiBes%

  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

PERU BRAZIL COLOMBIA RUSSIA HUNGARY THAILAND CANADA NEW ZEALAND CHILE PHILIPPINES GREECE TURKEY SOUTH AFRICA MALAYSIA NORWAY INDONESIA EGYPT UAE USA CZECH REP . NETHERLANDS AUSTRALIA PORTUGAL DENMARK MEXICO FRANCE SINGAPORE TAIWAN KOREA UK BELGIUM POLAND SPAIN INDIA HONG KONG QATAR SWEDEN JAPAN GERMANY IRELAND AUSTRIA SWITZERLAND CHINA FINLAND ISRAEL ITALY

MSCI country indices, YTD Source:%MSCI%

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Tightening%global%labor%markets%

40# 50# 60# 70# 80# 90# 100# 110# 1950# 1975# 2000# 2025# 2050# 2075# 2100# Dependents/working/age/popula3on/(%)/

Global/dependency/ra3os,/1950@2100/

(<15#&#65+)/(15164)# (<20#&#70+)/(20169)#

Source:%UN%

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The%U.S.%labor%market%is%clearly%Bghtening%

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What%might%explain%the%inflecBon?%

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Was%there%a%Shanghai%Accord?%

Source:%FT%

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The%world’s%central%bank%(shhhh)%

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So%what%could%possibly%go%wrong?%

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Populism:%a%global%backlash%against%globalizaBon%

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What%else%could%go%wrong?%

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Why%hike%now?%

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SLIDE 24

Source:%Druckenmiller%2016%

What%if%Druckenmiller%is%right%(again)?%

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What%if%L%shaped%turns%out%to%be%I%shaped%

Source:%People’s%Daily%

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Final%thought:%The%last%inflecBon%point%

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006

OECD average inflation rate, 1956-2014

OECD - Total OECD - 1956 members (unweighted av.)

Source:%OECD%