A coupled lake-groundwater model applied to lakes in the Newer - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Martin Ankor A coupled lake-groundwater model applied to lakes in the Newer Volcanic Province Jon Tyler & Derrick Hasterok (University of Adelaide) Peter Dahlhaus & Jessica Reeves (Federation University) Matthew Currell (RMIT), Dioni Cendon & Cath Hughes (ANSTO)

WHY MODEL LAKES? Lake sediments – palaeoclimate records Climate models Current monitoring Projections of lake behaviour https://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/ breakthroughs/climate_model/ modeling_schematic.html Lake leake water level change KIRONO D. G. C., KENT D. M., JONES R. N. & LEAHY P . J. 2012. Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Risks on Three Salt Lakes in Western Victoria, Australia. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal. 18, 152-167. University of Adelaide 2

WHY MODEL LAKES? Lake sediments – palaeoclimate records ??? Climate models ??? Current monitoring Occurs under transient conditions Projections of lake behaviour ??? https://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/ ??? breakthroughs/climate_model/ modeling_schematic.html Lake leake water level change KIRONO D. G. C., KENT D. M., JONES R. N. & LEAHY P . J. 2012. Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Risks on Three Salt Lakes in Western Victoria, Australia. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal. 18, 152-167. University of Adelaide 3

INTERACTIONS (JUST A FEW) Microfossil Assemblages Water Level Isotope Chemistry Lakes Salinity Sedimentary Lake Sediments Structures Water Isotopic Climate Composition Change Palaeo-Shorelines Groundwater Interaction Aeolian materials University of Adelaide 4

LAKES

LAKES

CHIMBLE

CHIMBLE 2015 - HYDROLOGICAL CALIBRATION Modelled Lake Levels Historical Lake Levels Key Historical Levels 162 Lake Bullen Merri 160 158 156 154 152 Water Level 0.230 150 148 146 0.090 144 142 0.020 Soil thickness 140 (Evapotranspiration) 0.007 138 1885 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 Year

CHIMBLE 2015 - ISOTOPIC EVOLUTION

Basin Meteorological Model Morphology & Data Parameters Geology Thermal Evaporation Modifiers Lake Stratification Lake Water Temperature CHIMBLE Outseepage Groundwater Inflow Salinity Evaporation Inflow Reservoir Modifiers University of Adelaide 10

Basin Meteorological Model Morphology & Data Parameters Geology Thermal Evaporation Modifiers Lake Stratification Lake Water Temperature CHIMBLE GROUND- WATER Salinity Evaporation MODULE Modifiers University of Adelaide 11

Basin Meteorological Model Morphology & Data Parameters Geology Thermal Evaporation Modifiers Lake Stratification Lake Water Temperature CHIMBLE GROUND- WATER SALINITY MODULE MODULE University of Adelaide 12

Basin Meteorological Model Morphology & Data Parameters Geology LAKE Light Depth Extinction THERMAL MODULE CHIMBLE GROUND- WATER SALINITY MODULE MODULE University of Adelaide 13

Basin Meteorological Model Morphology & Data Parameters Geology ECOLOGY LAKE Future Project MODULE THERMAL MODULE CHIMBLE GROUND- Underway: WATER SALINITY R & C++ 2D FDM MODULE MODULE University of Adelaide 14

Basin Meteorological Model Morphology & Data Parameters Geology Thermal Evaporation Modifiers Lake Stratification Lake Water Temperature CHIMBLE GROUND- Underway: WATER R & C++ Salinity 2D FDM Evaporation MODULE Modifiers University of Adelaide 15

CHIMBLE 2017 GROUNDWATER MODULE 2D FDM Specified head, head dependant and no flow boundaries. Topography, wells, ET, recharge, confined and unconfined aquifers, reservoirs/lakes. ~400x faster than Modflow. Ankor, M J & Tyler, J T, submitted 2017

CHIMBLE 2015 - HYDROLOGICAL CALIBRATION Modelled Lake Levels Historical Lake Levels Key Historical Levels 162 Lake Bullen Merri 160 158 156 154 152 Water Level 0.230 150 148 146 0.090 144 142 0.020 Soil thickness 140 (Evapotranspiration) 0.007 138 1885 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 Year

CHIMBLE 2017 - COUPLED GROUNDWATER (PRELIMINARY) Lake depth over time Lake Bullen Merri 160 155 150 Depth 145 K = 1 140 Lake K = 0.0005 Soil Layer =0.115 PWF =0.3 Calcheck = 0.006, SD = 0.398 iHeads =BM Calibration/Bullen Merri Heads 1889 V4.txt Base =BM Calibration/DIATREME 50d and S108.grid 1889 1895 1901 1907 1913 1919 1925 1931 1937 1943 1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 2015 Time

AERIAL PHOTOS LAKE LEAKE LAKE EDWARD 2015 1950 2015 1950 2013 1978 2013 1978 1982 2008 1982 2008 1987 2002 1987 2002 1997 1992 1997 1992 University of Adelaide 19

LAKE EDWARD WATER LEVELS 1950-2016 107 106 105 104 103 102 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 LAKE LEAKE WATER LEVELS 1950-2016 93 92 91 90 89 88 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 University of Adelaide 20

MONITORING University of Adelaide 21

SUMMARY Lake models are important for the interpretation of palaeoclimates from lake sediments, and for the projection of future changes in lake systems. Lake models may require significant complexity to effectively model the hydrologic, isotopic and chemical response of a lake to changes in climate. Long term monitoring programs are necessary to develop datasets for calibration of lake models. University of Adelaide 22

HONOURS 2015 - ISOTOPIC EVOLUTION Imberger J. 1985 Sánchez-España J. et al. 2014