75 years after D-Day, we salute our veterans Are There Really No - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

75 years after D-Day, we salute our veterans

Are There Really No Solutions to Climate Change and Clean Energy?

Bob Anderson UOP retiree Adjunct Professor of Chemical Engineering Illinois Institute of Technology

Let’s examine a few ideas

Further improvements to automobile design and fuels production Solar–photovoltaic Solar thermal Wind Turbines Nuclear

? x

Bud Schweppe is reaching for his checkbook

1934 Chevrolet Boxcar

First attempt at aerodynamics

Tail fins and fender skirts and 6 miles/gal

Toyota Prius, an early hybrid 55 miles/gal

Tesla all electric for ~$100 K

Automobile improvements

Over 120 years cars have become safer, more comfortable, more reliable, more efficient, and more powerful Dozens of manufacturers worldwide compete fiercely Oil industry had to compete fiercely and keep up with demands of the car companies and government

• Increasing octane number of gasoline
• Creation of leadfree gasoline
• Chemical composition of reformulated gasoline
• Better lubricants

Historical Development of Electric Car

Around 1900, electric automobiles were introduced

• Heavy lead acid batteries
• Mostly used for in-town use

Gasoline powered cars were thought to be dangerous

• One state required a person to walk in front of a car carrying a red

flag to warn others (wouldn’t work on the Eisenhower today, the walker would get downtown way ahead of the car)

• When they broke down somebody yelled “get a horse!”

Gasoline won the battle

Electrics were not practical for long trips Many brands were introduced, often produced by buggy makers Henry Ford developed the idea of a production line with the goal

• f making cars affordable to the average citizen

Before electric starters, the driver had to pull a crank that started the engine by rotating the flywheel and often broke arms

1920’s and 1930’s

Engines became more powerful (bootleggers and gangsters loved it) Electric starters were invented The compression ratio/gasoline octane race began Cars were hard to steer, brakes were ineffective Manual transmissions required frequent shifting to accelerate or climb hills

1940’s and 1950’s

World War II required production to meet military requirements – no civilian cars Gasoline, rubber, metals were “unavailable” Postwar demand created large markets for large manufacturers such as Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler Power and speed became the basis for competition Radio and heater were popular options

Technology Evolution 50’s and 60’s

Automatic transmissions Power brakes Power steering Air conditioning Catalytic converters for conversion of Carbon Monoxide and hydrocarbons in the exhaust Big V-8’s and big bodies (with tail fins) Mostly steel, and about 1/2” thick

Fuel Economy

4000 pound cars with 425 horsepower averaged 6-8 miles/gallon ($.50/gallon) High octane gasoline used TEL (tetra ethyl lead) Combination of effect of lead on human brains and catalytic and catalytic converters required lead to be phased out Aerodynamics similar to railroad box car

Impact of Lead Elimination

Octane rating dropped about 10 numbers Engine compression ratios were dropped from 11:1 to 8:1 Reduced vehicle weight was one way to regain performance Engine technology began rapid evolution

• Fuel injection for better air/fuel ratio control
• More sophisticated camshafts allowed for optimum valve opening

and closing

Foreign Cars Became Popular

Japanese manufacturers were expert in smaller, more efficient vehicles Original Hondas and Datsuns were not well suited to US driving conditions and were not very reliable – remember toys made in Japan? Japanese learned about quality from W. Edwards Deming, a US statistician who was ignored by US car companies

Technology to Improve Fuel Economy

Aluminum used for many body parts Plastics used for inside Lighter weight engines Aerodynamic styling Friction reduction Multi-speed automatic transmissions Radial tires

Government-mandated Fuel Economy

Debate was between government-mandated vehicle design and setting standards and letting competition loose 20 miles per gallon became routine 55 mph speed limits intended to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emission (unpopular in Texas) Japanese demonstrated 30 mpg Previous administration’s goal had been 54.5 mpg (now dropped)

Technology to improve safety

Antilock brakes Side impact channels Energy-absorbing front end Seat belts Air bags Collision avoidance systems Safety glass Blind spot alarms

Birth of the Hybrid

Gasoline engines are terribly inefficient from zero to about 20 mph Idling engines at stoplights and railroad crossings waste fuel and create emissions Brakes work by converting the kinetic energy of the moving automobile to frictional heat – total waste – now regenerative braking recharges battery Electric motors are efficient while gasoline engines are not (90% vs 28%)

Summary of automobile technology

We have come a long way

• Performance
• Environmental impact
• Safety
• Comfort
• Electricity coming back for another round

But it took 120 years!

• Big companies
• Racing teams
• Entrepreneurs
• Market pressure

How did the oil business keep up?

Henry Ford started it all

Clarence G. Gerhold, one of many UOP Pioneers

For 105 years, UOP, the company I worked, for has been right in the middle of the fracas Larry Gerhold started at UOP in 1928 from U

• f Illinois with an MS ChE degree

First year on the job he figured out how to raise the octane number of gasoline Went on to develop technologies that are the foundation of the petrochemical industry Served many years as technical advisor to senior management Does anybody here recognize him?

Vladimir Ipatieff kept it going

Born in Moscow 1867 died in Chicago 1952 Czar Nicholas and his family were shot in Ipatieff family vacation house July 17, 1918 Became a General in the Army Chemistry professor and head of the Science Academy Father of petroleum chemistry, explosives, catalysts Came to Northwestern and UOP (escape story) More than 500 patents Famous for the Ipatieff sample container Teacher of Val Haensel

World War II drove invention

• Fluid Catalytic Cracking
• Natural clay catalyst
• 1000°F reactor 1350°F

regenerator

• Coke combustion provided

heat of reaction

• HF Alkylation
• Synthetic Rubber

• Multi-story vessels
• Catalyst circulation rate thousands
• f tons per hour
• Couple hundred million dollars

capital cost

• Major opportunity for energy recovery

• Late 1940s, Vladimir Haensel at UOP

proposed using platinum as a catalyst for reforming naphtha to high octane gasoline

• High temperature in presence of

hydrogen - 950°F

• Initial response was ridicule, using an

expensive jewelry material in an oil refinery!

• 145 US patents, 600 commercial units

• Everybody wanted a sample of the catalyst

to see if they could steal the invention

• Remember President Reagan’s jelly beans?
• Our lab guys made up a batch of catalyst

using cadmium, cobalt, molybdenum, zinc, chrome, and a tiny bit of platinum

Do you remember Ethyl? (leaded gasoline) – what happened?

Think about Flint, Michigan with their lead in drinking water We used to paint our houses and metal furniture with paint containing lead We used to put 3cc of tetraethyl lead (TEL) into each gallon of gasoline (.08%) for about 10 octane boost In crowded cities where kids played near streets, they were found to have high lead levels – bad news Lead was taken out of paint and the EPA said “take the lead out of gasoline”. 10 numbers is a lot to achieve by changing the refining processes, but we did and by early 70’s The government never fails to amuse me – while lead was being removed from our gasoline under force of law, the Chinese were allowed to sell their gasoline in the US with 4.6 cc/gal TEL (1970s)

Why must we buy gasoline with 10% ethanol

Thank the EPA for that one, their solution to smog in LA, Chicago, Denver etc. Doesn’t it poke a finger in the Arab’s eye? Nope. Isn’t it great that we make it in America? Nope. Isn’t it cheaper? Nope. Does it clean up the exhaust? No. So who benefits? I’ll let you think about that one for a few minutes. What are the economics? Farmers looked at growing corn, taking it to a fermenter, and transporting. Farmers are smart. They found that the price they could sell ethanol for did not cover the cost of seed, plowing, planting, irrigating, cultivating, fertilizer, herbicides, insecticides, and harvesting labor. So the EPA said “How about we give you a bribe incentive of $.50 per gallon?” Oil doesn’t mix with water but it is fully miscible with politics

Fracking

Reason the market price of natural gas dropped from $12 to $2/1,000 cubic feet a few years ago Directional drilling

• Used to be you could only drill straight down – hope your info and aim is good
• Now you can drill around the corner – like into your neighbor’s field

Hydraulic stimulation

• Oil is tightly held underground in sandy or shale formations
• It is viscous and happy where it is
• Previously put steam down the well to soften it, sometimes also fire
• Now massive volumes of water with chemical additives and detergents are pumped down at very high

pressure

• Yield increases a lot, more supply, lower marginal cost of production means lower prices

Summary of the oil business

Over 100 high tech processes to make whatever fuel or petrochemical the market wants Sophisticated high temperature and high pressure equipment Hundreds of catalysts to make reactions go faster and more selectively Intense competition from operating companies such as Shell, Exxon, Mobil, BP; government agencies such as French IFP; independent technology developers such as UOP Strategic plans now recognize that gasoline and diesel engines will be going away, so oil companies are now focusing on petrochemicals

Soon every car will be available all electric

Range anxiety Number and location of recharging stations Big boost in electricity demand Huge peaking problem if everybody wants to charge at 6 pm Mechanics and dealer service departments will starve – no tuneups,

• il changes, no fuel systems, transmissions, etc.

Let’s take a quick look at clean energy

Small contributors such as geothermal and hydroelectric

• Location dependent, little ability to contribute to solving the big

problems Fast growing distributed power from photovoltaic panels

• You can buy them from Amazon – enough to be self sufficient

Equally fast growing installations of wind turbines

• Blades are now available 540 foot rotor diameter (45 stories high)

9.5 megawatts

Big issues with solar and wind

Sun shines in the daytime, wind usually blows as well You want lights on at night, TV, cooking, etc. Where would we store excess energy in the day to use at night?

• Huge battery installations by your electric utility ($ billion)
• $8,000 battery in your garage or basement
• Could pump water up a mountain and release it through a turbine at night
• Electric cars might be used as storage

The grid can handle disturbances when sun and wind bounces around if less than 35% is “green” And we insist on 115 volts, 60 cycles/second, 24/7 on demand

Now competitive with fossil fuels

Ever burn your initials into a baseball bat with a magnifying glass or started fires?

Also competitive with fossil fuels

Germany panicked and shut them down

A quick look at clean energy – Nuclear

Large, commercially demonstrated nuclear power stations for 40 years

• 10 years to get a permit, 5 years to get financing ($15 billion), 10 years

to build

• If we started tomorrow we would get juice in 2044 by which time global

demand will have doubled

• We need 9,300 gigawatts at $8 billion/gigawatt = $75 trillion dollars) or

about 9,300 power plants (total current world projects = 61, only one in the US)

• We don’t have the engineering, manufacturing, construction, or
• perating manpower
• And people are scared to death of Nukes

Reality Check

US GDP is $20 trillion/year vs $75 trillion for nuclear power Total value of US stock market is $33 trillion Rest of world stock market is $44 trillion 25 US universities offer degrees in nuclear engineering They graduate 1,200 new nuclear engineers per year, probably just enough to replace retirees Perhaps 5 companies capable of building the critical equipment Skilled construction workers, especially pipefitters, are scarce

My reason for being pessimistic

US has no energy policy, never had one, I doubt it ever will Gross ignorance of the problem by citizens and political leaders EPA head says we have 75 years to figure things out, his staff disagrees Massive social change initiatives take at least ten years under committed leadership – e.g. civil rights movement Political processes are broken – no consensus, “If you are for it, then I am against it.”