5 years of Systemgestaltung at ETH Zurich Looking back and ahead - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 1 / 1 5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Looking back and ahead Frank Schweitzer fschweitzer@ethz.ch Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 2 / 1 The very first day ... what is the origin of indirect reciprocity ? the Zurich Airport: our favorate example for Systems Engineering Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 3 / 1 High risk – high return? would you hire a physicists for that position? make sure that the 5 different chairs (personalities) collaborate? Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 4 / 1 The big promises ... Research ◮ Control and agent-based modeling of socio-technical systems ◮ Role of instabilities, robustness vs adaptivity Teaching ◮ VL Complexity theory for entrepreneurial sciences ◮ VL Modeling and simulation of socio-technical systems Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 5 / 1 Five years later ... A summary Team: 15 to 24 collaborators (5 PhD theses defended) Space: 187 m 2 office space, F floor in KPL Funded projects: 10 projects (SNF, SBF, EU), 2.7 Mio CHF Publications: 62 papers (50 published, 12 submitted/forthcoming) Talks: 166 (conferences, seminars, invited talks) Workshops: 8 (1 planned, 6 realized, 1 school) Services: 200 reviews, 2 journals, visualization software Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 6 / 1 The first task ... developing the ETH letter style file for L A T EX Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 7 / 1 Teaching Today Systems Dynamics and Complexity esse ... problem solving cycle a jumble of feedback loops ⇒ Vensim Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 8 / 1 Teaching Today Collective Dynamics of Firms robust patterns (‘stylized facts’) observed in firm data ⇒ R formal modeling ˙ y i = F ( y i , y j , ... ) Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 9 / 1 Research: Methodological basis research on socio-economic systems (firms, organizations, ...) major focus: collective effects : emergence of features - - , , basis: theory of complex systems , - - , , , , , - - - - - - , , , , - - Micro Level Macro Level ⇔ ◮ How are the properties of the elements and their interactions (“microscopic” level) related to the dynamics and the properties of the whole system (“macroscopic” level)? Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 10 / 1 Complex Networks agents ⇒ nodes, interactions ⇒ links the physics approach: add nodes, draw lines ... the real challenges in socio-economic systems: ◮ heterogeneous agents: firms, banks, individuals, ... ◮ weighted, directed links: ownership, credit relations, ... ◮ strategic link formation/deletion ◮ feedback between agent dynamics and link dynamics Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 11 / 1 Economic networks - The new challenges Special Section: Complex Systems and Networks Pushing Networks to the Limit massive data analysis time and space structure identification beyond simplicity systemic feedbacks Schweitzer, Frank, Fagiolo, Giorgio, Sornette, Didier, Vega-Redondo, Fer- nando, Vespignani, Alessandro, White, Douglas R.: Economic Networks: 24 July 2009 The New Challenges, Science, vol. 325 (2009) pp. 422-425 Vol 325, Issue 5939 Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 12 / 1 Structure identification: Ownership and Control ORBIS Data: 30 million firms ⇒ trans-national companies (TNC) ◮ LCC: 35% of TNC with 94% of total operating revenue ◮ SCC: 0.7% of TNC with 19% of total operating revenue ◮ 75% of the ownership of the SCC firms stays within the SCC GENERALI MITSUBISHI UFJ SUMITOMO LLOYDS TSB ROYAL BANK SCOTLAND HBOS BANK NOVA SCOTIA BANK OF AMERICA GEN.ELECTRIC PRUDENTIAL FIN. BEAR STEARNS INTESA-SANPAOLO GOLDMAN SACHS ING SANTANDER UBS ABERDEEN SOC.GENERALE MORGAN STANLEY COMMERZBANK CAPITAL GROUP MEDIOBANCA FMR CORP STATE STREET UNICREDITO HSBC CITIGROUP SUMITOMO MITSUI KEYCORP BARCLAYS FRIENDS PROVIDENT BNP PARIBAS CR.SUISSE JPMORGAN CHASE FIDELITY MNG NOMURA IFI WELLINGTON MNG DEUTSCHE BANK FRANKLIN RES. MERRILL LYNCH Excerpt of the network of financial intermediaries in the SCC Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 13 / 1 Systemic risk: A common framework cover examples from different areas ◮ what do they have in common?, what makes them unique? highlight critical conditions ◮ role of heterogeneity?, leads diversification to larger systemic risk? allow prediction and prevention ◮ how does the fraction of failed nodes evolve over time? ◮ Can we counterbalance failure propagation? Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 14 / 1 6 Chairs (Axhausen, Cederman, Helbing, Herrmann, F.S., Sornette) from 3 different departments (D-MTEC, D-GESS, D-BAUG) established in April 2008, CHIRP I grant: 650’000 CHF ◮ Work Package 1: Crises in markets ◮ Work Package 2: Crises in societal infrastructures ◮ Work Package 3: Conflict-generated crises two international workshops hosted at ETH (2008, 2009) Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 15 / 1 Social Organizations crises/conflicts as emergent phenomena: ◮ negative externalities: unpaid costs imposed on other agents ◮ social dilemma: private ⇔ collective utility, inefficiency 2 1 4 3 mechanisms to mitigate conflicts (‘mechanism design’) ◮ cooperation through indirect reciprocity ⇒ R&D networks ◮ develop trust in social networks ⇒ recommender systems ◮ improve convergence towards consensus ( role of in-groups , imitation) Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 16 / 1 Future Research: Data Driven Modeling economic data: Bloomberg, ORBIS, patent databases, ... 1 Systemic risk in financial networks ( ⇒ Battiston) ◮ specific insight into financial institutions 2 R&D network life cycles ( ⇒ K¨ onig) ◮ identify firm/network characteristics ⇒ reproduce stylised facts Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 17 / 1 Future Research: Data Driven Modeling data of social interaction: software communities, animal societies 3 OSS structure and communication ◮ link ‘product’ (structure, development) to ‘producers’, success criteria 4 Social structure and dynamics in bats, mice ◮ reveal multi-level structure, strategies and link to ‘success’ Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 18 / 1 Future Research: Data Driven Modeling data from online communities: ratings, blogs, own experiments 5 Trust based recommender systems ( ⇒ Walter) ◮ develop trust towards information sources, enhance online interaction 6 Cyberemotions ◮ emergence of collective emotions in online communities 1.0 Performance of the system Φ 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Fraction n 1 of agents of profile p 1 Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 19 / 1 Our vision Quantitative understanding of socio-economic interaction ◮ reveal the hidden complexity, provide a reference frame ◮ revolutionizing economics and the social sciences Mitigation of conflicts and risk ◮ design of mechanisms to enhance soical interactions ◮ strengthen cooperation, avoid inefficiency Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 20 / 1 Thank you! Thanks to the team and to all our collaborators. We are looking forward to the next five years. Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/