5 years of Systemgestaltung at ETH Zurich Looking back and ahead - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 1 / 1

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich

Looking back and ahead

Frank Schweitzer

fschweitzer@ethz.ch

Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 2 / 1

The very first day ...

what is the origin of indirect reciprocity? the Zurich Airport: our favorate example for Systems Engineering

Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 3 / 1

High risk – high return?

would you hire a physicists for that position? make sure that the 5 different chairs (personalities) collaborate?

Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 4 / 1

The big promises ...

Research

◮ Control and agent-based modeling of socio-technical systems ◮ Role of instabilities, robustness vs adaptivity

Teaching

◮ VL Complexity theory for entrepreneurial sciences ◮ VL Modeling and simulation of socio-technical systems Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 5 / 1

Five years later ... A summary

Team: 15 to 24 collaborators (5 PhD theses defended) Space: 187 m2 office space, F floor in KPL Funded projects: 10 projects (SNF, SBF, EU), 2.7 Mio CHF Publications: 62 papers (50 published, 12 submitted/forthcoming) Talks: 166 (conferences, seminars, invited talks) Workshops: 8 (1 planned, 6 realized, 1 school) Services: 200 reviews, 2 journals, visualization software

Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 6 / 1

The first task ...

developing the ETH letter style file for L

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Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 7 / 1

Teaching Today

Systems Dynamics and Complexity esse ... problem solving cycle a jumble of feedback loops ⇒ Vensim

Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 8 / 1

Teaching Today

Collective Dynamics of Firms robust patterns (‘stylized facts’) observed in firm data ⇒ R formal modeling ˙ yi = F(yi, yj, ...)

Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 9 / 1

Research: Methodological basis

research on socio-economic systems (firms, organizations, ...) major focus: collective effects: emergence of features basis: theory of complex systems

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Micro Level

⇔

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Macro Level

◮ How are the properties of the elements and their interactions

(“microscopic” level) related to the dynamics and the properties of the whole system (“macroscopic” level)?

Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 10 / 1

Complex Networks

agents ⇒ nodes, interactions ⇒ links the physics approach: add nodes, draw lines ... the real challenges in socio-economic systems:

◮ heterogeneous agents: firms, banks, individuals, ... ◮ weighted, directed links: ownership, credit relations, ... ◮ strategic link formation/deletion ◮ feedback between agent dynamics and link dynamics Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 11 / 1

Economic networks - The new challenges

24 July 2009 Vol 325, Issue 5939

Special Section: Complex Systems and Networks Pushing Networks to the Limit massive data analysis time and space structure identification beyond simplicity systemic feedbacks

Schweitzer, Frank, Fagiolo, Giorgio, Sornette, Didier, Vega-Redondo, Fer- nando, Vespignani, Alessandro, White, Douglas R.: Economic Networks: The New Challenges, Science, vol. 325 (2009) pp. 422-425 Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 12 / 1

Structure identification: Ownership and Control

ORBIS Data: 30 million firms ⇒ trans-national companies (TNC)

◮ LCC: 35% of TNC with 94% of total operating revenue ◮ SCC: 0.7% of TNC with 19% of total operating revenue ◮ 75% of the ownership of the SCC firms stays within the SCC

IFI FRANKLIN RES. STATE STREET UNICREDITO CR.SUISSE PRUDENTIAL FIN. DEUTSCHE BANK KEYCORP INTESA-SANPAOLO BARCLAYS SUMITOMO MITSUI GENERALI MERRILL LYNCH CITIGROUP SANTANDER LLOYDS TSB BNP PARIBAS ABERDEEN NOMURA GOLDMAN SACHS MEDIOBANCA BANK OF AMERICA UBS MITSUBISHI UFJ MORGAN STANLEY CAPITAL GROUP BEAR STEARNS ING GEN.ELECTRIC SUMITOMO FMR CORP ROYAL BANK SCOTLAND FIDELITY MNG WELLINGTON MNG HSBC COMMERZBANK JPMORGAN CHASE BANK NOVA SCOTIA FRIENDS PROVIDENT SOC.GENERALE HBOS

Excerpt of the network of financial intermediaries in the SCC

Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 13 / 1

Systemic risk: A common framework

cover examples from different areas

◮ what do they have in common?, what makes them unique?

highlight critical conditions

◮ role of heterogeneity?, leads diversification to larger systemic risk?

allow prediction and prevention

◮ how does the fraction of failed nodes evolve over time? ◮ Can we counterbalance failure propagation? Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 14 / 1

6 Chairs (Axhausen, Cederman, Helbing, Herrmann, F.S., Sornette) from 3 different departments (D-MTEC, D-GESS, D-BAUG) established in April 2008, CHIRP I grant: 650’000 CHF

◮ Work Package 1: Crises in markets ◮ Work Package 2: Crises in societal infrastructures ◮ Work Package 3: Conflict-generated crises

two international workshops hosted at ETH (2008, 2009)

Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 15 / 1

Social Organizations

crises/conflicts as emergent phenomena:

◮ negative externalities: unpaid costs imposed on other agents ◮ social dilemma: private ⇔ collective utility, inefficiency

1 2 3 4

mechanisms to mitigate conflicts (‘mechanism design’)

◮ cooperation through indirect reciprocity ⇒ R&D networks ◮ develop trust in social networks ⇒ recommender systems ◮ improve convergence towards consensus ( role of in-groups , imitation) Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 16 / 1

Future Research: Data Driven Modeling

economic data: Bloomberg, ORBIS, patent databases, ...

1 Systemic risk in financial networks (⇒ Battiston) ◮ specific insight into financial institutions 2 R&D network life cycles (⇒ K¨

• nig)

◮ identify firm/network characteristics ⇒ reproduce stylised facts Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 17 / 1

Future Research: Data Driven Modeling

data of social interaction: software communities, animal societies

3 OSS structure and communication ◮ link ‘product’ (structure, development) to ‘producers’, success criteria 4 Social structure and dynamics in bats, mice ◮ reveal multi-level structure, strategies and link to ‘success’ Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 18 / 1

Future Research: Data Driven Modeling

data from online communities: ratings, blogs, own experiments

5 Trust based recommender systems (⇒ Walter) ◮ develop trust towards information sources, enhance online interaction 6 Cyberemotions ◮ emergence of collective emotions in online communities

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Fraction n1 of agents of profile p1 Performance of the system Φ

Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 19 / 1

Our vision

Quantitative understanding of socio-economic interaction

◮ reveal the hidden complexity, provide a reference frame ◮ revolutionizing economics and the social sciences

Mitigation of conflicts and risk

◮ design of mechanisms to enhance soical interactions ◮ strengthen cooperation, avoid inefficiency Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/

5 years of ‘Systemgestaltung’ at ETH Zurich Frank Schweitzer 30 October 2009 20 / 1

Thank you!

Thanks to the team and to all our collaborators.

We are looking forward to the next five years.

Chair of Systems Design http://www.sg.ethz.ch/