30-31 May 2017 Background ILO-KOREA TVET Forum, Oct. 2017 Jobs, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Inter-regional Technical Forum on

Skills for Trade, Employability and Inclusive Growth Siem Reap, Cambodia 30-31 May 2017 Matching skills for the future of work and regional integration in Asia and the Pacific

Akiko Sakamoto ILO-Bangkok

Background

ILO-KOREA TVET Forum, Oct. 2017

• Jobs, Skills and Strategies for the Future:

Perspectives from Asia-Pacific

The 16th Asia-Pacific Regional Meeting (APRM)

• Special Plenary Debate: Skills for the Future

CONTEXT

Robust economic growth in developing Asia…

Change in real gross domestic product, 2000-16p (%, annual average)

Note: 2016 figures are projections. Source: IMF: World Economic Outlook Database (Apr. 2016).

• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2000-15 2016p

…has lifted millions of workers out of poverty…

Share of workers living in extreme poverty, 1991-2015p (% under $1.90 per day)

Source: ILO: Trends Econometric Models (Geneva, Nov. 2015). 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia Southern Asia

… …improving the quality of employment still remains a big challenge…

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 BRN (2014) SGP (2013) MYS (2014) MDV (2010) WSM (2012) BGD (2011) FJI (2008) PHL (2013) LKA (2013) MNG (2012) KIR (2010) THA (2013) IDN (2013) KHM (2012) VNM (2013) VUT (2009) PAK (2008) IND (2010)

% of non-wage and vulnerable employment in total employment

Male - % of non-wage/salaried employment Female - % of non-wage/salaried employment Male - % of vulnerable employment Female - % of vulnerable employment

… income disparity rising overall…

Change in Gini coefficient, earliest year in 1990s and latest available year

…notably in China, India and Indonesia which account for nearly 3 in 4

• f the region’s population…

Note: * denotes a worsening in the inequality indicator since the early 1990s. Source: World Bank: PovCalNet Database. 10 20 30 40 50 60 Pakistan (1991-2011) Cambodia (1994-2012) Bangladesh* (1992-2010) India* (1994-2009) Indonesia* (1990-2010) Viet Nam* (1993-2012) Lao PDR* (1992-2012) Mongolia* (1995-2012) Thailand (1990-2012) China* (1990-2010) Philippines (1991-2012) Malaysia (1992-2009) Earliest year Latest year

…and spatial inequalities persist…

Urban and rural poverty rate, latest available year (% below national poverty line)

…between rural and urban areas but also between regions…

Source: World Bank: World Development Indicators (2016). 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Malaysia China Indonesia Thailand Cambodia Viet Nam India Lao PDR Bangladesh Mongolia Urban Rural

…and wage gaps between women and men…

Male-female gap in wages, 2013 or latest available year (%)

…

Source: ILO: Wages in Asia and the Pacific: Dynamic but uneven progress (Bangkok, 2014). 20 40 60 80 100 120 Average wage of men (Index = 100) Average wage of women relative to men's wages

SKILLS FOR THE FUTURE in ASIA & PACIFIC

KEY DRIVERS SHAPING THE FUTURE OF WORK

 Demographic change  Technology  Inter & Intra regional integration  Climate change & environmental sustainability  Key on-going characteristics: large informality & rural

economy

Key Drivers of Change and Emerging Skills Needs Demographic change

• Dual trends: Aging economies and young economies
• Increased demands for heath care and care
• ccupations
• Greater importance of lifelong learning, skills

upgrading or reskilling for mature workers

• Need to equip young job seekers with relevant

competencies

• Importance of quality basic education and/or core

work skills

Key Drivers of Change and Emerging Skills Needs Technological change

• While technology helps job creation, growing concern
• f negative impact on jobs
• Likely to negatively impact on low-skilled occupations,

women and those with limited education

• Increased demand for retraining and skills upgrading
• Increased demand for middle-higher skills, STEM and

core work skills including ability to learn

• The impact of technology on jobs varies considerably

Key Manufacturing Sect ctors at t Hig igh Employment Ris isk of f Automation

86% 70% 88% 56% 44% 64% 63% 60% 54% 37% 69% 81% 67% 58% 79% 74% 73% 75% 67% 86% 75% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ALL MANUFACTURING FOOD AND BEVERAGES GARMENTS ALL MANUFACTURING FOOD AND BEVERAGES GARMENTS COMPUTERS MOTOR VEHICLES ALL MANUFACTURING FOOD AND BEVERAGES GARMENTS COMPUTERS ALL MANUFACTURING FOOD AND BEVERAGES GARMENTS COMPUTERS MOTOR VEHICLES ALL MANUFACTURING FOOD AND BEVERAGES GARMENTS COMPUTERS CAMBODIA INDONESIA PHILIPPINES THAILAND VIET NAM

Source: Chang and Huynh (2016) ASEAN in Transformation: Future of jobs at risk of automation, ILO

33% 71% 40% 66% 44% 85% 62% 75% 42% 89% 88% 70% 67% 39% 68% 57% 45% 32% 69% 41% 43% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ALL SERVICES RETAIL TRADE HOTELS BANKING ALL SERVICES RETAIL TRADE HOTELS BANKING ALL SERVICES BPO/CALL CENTRE RETAIL TRADE HOTELS BANKING ALL SERVICES RETAIL TRADE HOTELS BANKING ALL SERVICES RETAIL TRADE HOTELS BANKING CAMBODIA INDONESIA PHILIPPINES THAILAND VIET NAM

Key Service Sect ctors at t Hig igh Employment Ris isk of f Automation

Women and less educated workers more likely to be at high employment risk

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

Women relative to men Youth relative to adults Primary education relative to secondary Primary education relative to post-secondary Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Thailand Viet Nam Source: Chang and Huynh (2016) ASEAN in Transformation: Future of jobs at risk of automation, ILO

SKILLS PROFILES

Labour force by educational attainment

Education level of the workforce in the region varies considerably

More than 30% of the workforce without primary education (Cambodia, India and Pakistan,). At least 30% of the workforce with tertiary education (high income countries in the region)

Considerable share (over 60%) of the workforce has less than secondary education

 Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka

Skills mismatch (over/under-skilled)

Significant skills mismatch exists in the region

Less than half (45-48%) of employed persons had a ‘matching’ qualifications for their occupations More ‘under-skilled mismatches’ (51% in India, 45% in Cambodia and Thailand 44%), less ‘over-skilled mismatch’

Skills mismatch (over/under-qualified)

Trends (2005- latest available data):

• Incidence of over-qualification is increasing in low and

middle-skilled occupations, except Mongolia and Indonesia

• For middle- and high-skilled occupations, the

incidence of under-qualified workers is in decline in general

• Expected skills shortages: high-skills in India,

Indonesia, Pakistan, lesser extent in Cambodia, Mongolia, Thailand, Timor Leste; semi-skilled workers for most countries

Source: Bhulaor and Matsumoto (forthcoming), Skills mismatch and shortages in Asia and the Pacific, ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

SKILLS RESPONSES

Key areas of skills responses

Anticipating future skills needs Improving relevance and responsiveness to meet labour market needs Greater engagement of industry, and better integration of training and the world of work Broadening access to TVET, and lifelong learning

• pportunities

 flexible delivery, community-based training, informal apprenticeships, recognition of prior learning

Additional suggestions from APRM debate on skills for the future

Skills systems need to: Broaden the scope of careers through core work skills, clustering of skills and lifelong learning approach Be in sync with actual demands of skills in the business strategy, now and in the future Be part of the creation of more rewarding and productive jobs (that require more high skills and have high value-added content) for building an inclusive future Step up efforts for public-private partnerships (PPPs) Improve the status of vocational technical training

THANK YOU

www.ilo.org Siem Reap, 30-31 May 2017 23