3 Q1 1 Results 3 Q1 1 Results
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October 2 7 , 2 0 1 1
3 Q1 1 Results 3 Q1 1 Results 1 Disclaimer sc a e This - - PDF document
October 2 7 , 2 0 1 1 3 Q1 1 Results 3 Q1 1 Results 1 Disclaimer sc a e This presentation may include statements that present Vale's expectations about future events or results about future events or results. All statements when based
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October 2 7 , 2 0 1 1
“This presentation may include statements that present Vale's expectations about future events or results All statements when based upon expectations
about future events or results. All statements, when based upon expectations about the future and not on historical facts, involve various risks and
These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the following: (a) the countries where we operate, especially Brazil and Canada; (b) the global economy; (c) the capital markets; (d) the mining and metals prices and their economy; (c) the capital markets; (d) the mining and metals prices and their dependence on global industrial production, which is cyclical by nature; and (e) global competition in the markets in which Vale operates. To obtain further f f ff f f information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), the ( ) ( ) French Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, and in particular the factors discussed under “Forward- Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” in Vale’s annual report on Form 20 F ”
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Looking Statements and Risk Factors in Vale s annual report on Form 20-F.
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All-time high production figures Iron ore 87.9 Mt1 Pellet 14 2 Mt2 +8 3% +4 3% +9.5% +6.4% Pellet 14.2 Mt2 Copper 84 300 t +34 3% +45 6% +8.3% +4.3% Copper 84,300 t Thermal coal 1.2 Mt 34.3% 45.6% +60.4% +20.0%
5 ¹ Includes 2.9 Mt of Vale’s attributable iron ore production from Samarco ² Includes 2.8 Mt of Vale’s attributable pellets production from Samarco
All-time high figures Operating revenues of US$ 16.7 billion +9.1% +15.5% Adjusted EBIT of US$ 8 4 billion +8 1% +6 9% Adjusted EBIT of US$ 8.4 billion +8.1% +6.9% Adjusted EBITDA of US$ 9 6 billion +6 2% +9 3% Adjusted EBITDA of US$ 9.6 billion 6.2% 9.3%
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US$ million
Adjusted EBITDA
1 111 77 (70) (77) (103) (376) Price variation Sales volume Dividends² Δ FX Costs & expenses ³ R&D¹ 1,111 77 (70) (77) (103) (376) 9,631 9,069 volume
2Q11 3Q11
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2Q11 3Q11
¹ This change relates to the accounting figure, differing from the financial disbursement used for Investments ² Dividends received from affiliated non-consolidated companies. ³ Costs excluding depreciation and amortization. Expenses include SG&A + other operating expenses.
32.437 35.929 36.745
LTM Adjusted EBI TDA US$ billion
26.116 16.319 17.480 19.853 19.018 17.570 13 591 19.392 13.077 9.717 9.165 9.739 13.591
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
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Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
Dividends US$ billion
9.0 3 0 1.9 2.9 2.7 3.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E
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Total debt Debt cost and m aturity
2 50 2 42
Total debt/LTM EBITDA (x)¹
Total debt - US$ billion¹ Liquid asset s - US$ billion¹,² 1 00 1.49 2.20 2.50 2.42 1.76 1.30 1 00 5.8 6.0 10.5 11.0
Average cost of debt Average debt maturity
% Years
1.00 1.00 0.70 0.68 0.63
19 5 21.2 22.9 23.6 24.0 25.3 25.3 23.7 24.5 23.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 9.5 10.0
10.1 5.5
18.4 19.5 7 6 13.0 11.1 9.7 9.4 11.8 13.2 11.0 11.2 12.2 4.6 4.8 5.0 8.0 8.5 9.0
9.1 4.7
7.6 6.2
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4.0 4.2 4.4 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 7.0 7.5
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1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
¹ at end of quarter. ² cash and cash equivalent.
9 M1 0 US$ 7 .6 1 4 billion 9 M1 1 US$ 1 1 .3 0 8 billion
Project s 67 4% Proj ect s 66 9% 67.4% 66.9% St ay-in- business 22 0% R&D 10.6% St ay-in- business 22 8% R&D 10.3%
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22.0% 22.8%
¹ Excluding M&A.
35% 40% 180 200 25% 30%
140 160 180
ROI C LTM 1
15% 20% US$ billio 80 100 120
I nvested capital US$ billion
5% 10% 20 40 60
US$ billion
0%
1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 12 ¹ ROIC LTM = return on capital invested for the last twelve-month period.
Total capacity: 11 Mtpy, 8.5 Mtpy metallurgical coal and 2.5 Mtpy of thermal coal. thermal coal. Moatize I, the first phase of the Moatize coal project, province of Tete, Mozambique started production in Mozambique, started production in 3Q11.
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Main parameters Main p CSN 9 CSR 69 CSR 69 Rank (Ro max) 1.32 Volatile matter 228 Ash (% ad) 10.5 ( ) Sulphur (% ad) 0.75 Phosphorus 0 085 Phosphorus 0.085 Vitrinite 80.8
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Max dilatation 118 Max fluidity 380 Mt
Additional 11 Mtpy of nominal production capacity, totaling 22 Mtpy for Moatize. Includes duplication of the coal handling and duplication of the coal handling and preparation plant (CHPP) and expansion of the infrastructure. Production is estimated to be composed of 70% HCC and 30% thermal coal. Capex: US$ 2 07 billion Capex: US$ 2.07 billion. Start up: expected for the second half of 2014.
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Handling capacity: estimated at 18 Mtpy of coal. Capex: US$ 4.444 billion, US$ 3.435 billion for the railroad and US$ 1.009 billion for the maritime t i l terminal. Start up: expected for the second half of 2014. half of 2014.
16 ¹ Vale holds a 67% stake in Sociedade Desenvolvimento Corredor do Norte S.A. (SDCN), the company that controls each
Total capacity: 130MW The Karebbe hydropower plant in Sorowako Indonesia will support expansion plans and The Karebbe hydropower plant, in Sorowako, Indonesia, will support expansion plans and at the same time will have an important role in our efforts to curb the production costs of
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14 16
Global industrial production % 3mma, saar¹
10 12 14 6 8 10 2 4 6
2
19
2 Dec- 09 Apr- 10 Aug- 10 Dec- 10 Apr- 11 Aug- 11
¹ Seasonally adjusted annualized rate Source: Vale and J.P. Morgan
GDP growth1
g %
4 6 6 2 4 2 4 6
3T07 2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11
2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11
Zona do Euro
US A GDP th Average GDP growth
Average GDP growth 1997-2007: 3.1% 3Q09-2Q11: 2.6% Average GDP growth 1997-2007: 2.3% 3Q09-2Q11: 1.9%
20 ¹ Annualized rate, sazonally adjusted. Source: Haver Analytics
Euro Zone
0.9 1 0 6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 0 1 0.2 0.3 0.1
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Recession probabilit y 21 Recession probabilit y Recession according the Euro area business cycle dating committee Sources: Vale and Euro area business cycle dating committee.
Chinese GDP grow th %
18 14 16 10 12 6 8
YoY
9.1% 8.0%
2 4
YoY QoQ¹
3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
22 ¹ Seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Sources: Haver Analytics/CEIC and Vale.
40 35
I P and FAI grow th
FAI IP
30 35 25 30 20 25 % YoY 15 20 % YoY 10 15 10 15 5
Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11
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Retail sales
23 y p y p Source: Haver Analytics/CEIC
Chinese property m arket Chinese property m arket
% YoY
150 200
Housing starts Sales
50 60 70
Floor space under construction
100 30 40 50 10 20 50
24 Source: Haver Analytics/CEIC and DEGC/DIRI
Sep-07 M ar-08 Sep-08 M ar-09 Sep-09 M ar-10 Sep-10 M ar-11 Sep-11
Sep-07 M ar-08 Sep-08 M ar-09 Sep-09 M ar-10 Sep-10 M ar-11 Sep-11
The social housing program is a key government priority The social housing program is a key government priority, providing a cushion to private sector. Social housing has the potential to support overall construction in the next 12-18 months. Authorities may ease monetary/credit policies in face of an inflation fall. In the case of a global downturn there is room to ease monetary and fiscal policy. p y While infrastructure projects were the focus of 2008 stimulus package social housing can be #1 priority in an eventual
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package, social housing can be #1 priority in an eventual attempt to boost growth in 2012.
5 8
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
2010
9.8 5.8
2010
2011
2012
2013-2015
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Construction started
Migrant families Urban Urban families “Full” houses
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Sources: Vale, NBS China and Gavekal.
200
Platts I ODEX 6 2 % Fe US$/ dry metric ton
185
138.5
October 24, 2011
155 170 140 110 125
28
110
Jun- 1 0 Aug- 1 0 Oct- 1 0 Dec- 1 0 Feb- 1 1 Apr- 1 1 Jun- 1 1 Aug- 1 1 Oct- 1 1
Source: Platts.
Nickel prices
Inventories Prices
US$/ metric ton 2008
Prices Inventories
2011
28,500 31,000 33,500
80 90
Prices
29,000 31,000 140 150
21 000 23,500 26,000
metric ton 60 70 etric ton 23 000 25,000 27,000 metric ton 120 130 etric ton
16,000 18,500 21,000
US$ per m 50 60 000' me 19,000 21,000 23,000 US$ per m 100 110 000' me
8,500 11,000 13,500
30 40 15,000 17,000
J 11 A 11 J l 11 O t 11
80 90
29 Source: Bloomberg
,
Jan- 08 F eb- 08 M ar- 08 A pr- 08 M ay- 08 Jun- 08 Jul- 08 A ug- 08 Sep- 08 Oct- 08 N o v- 08 D ec- 08
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11
Copper prices
I i P i
pp p US$/ metric ton 2008 2011
8,500 9,500 350 400
Inventories Prices
10,000 11,000 460 480 500 6,500 7,500 etric ton 300 ric ton 8,000 9,000 tric ton 420 440 460 c ton 4,500 5,500 US$ per me 200 250 000' metr 6,000 7,000 US$ per met 360 380 400 000' metric 2,500 3,500 100 150 4 000 5,000 300 320 340
30 Source: Bloomberg
Jan- 08 Feb- 08 Mar- 08 Apr- 08 May- 08 Jun- 08 Jul- 08 Aug- 08 Sep- 08 Oct- 08 Nov- 08 Dec- 08 4,000
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11
300
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