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3 NUMBERS Presented by: William C. Throne, CCIM, SIOR, ALC 2009 - PDF document

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3/10/2010 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 3 NUMBERS Presented by: William C. Throne, CCIM, SIOR, ALC 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW First Number: First

  1. 3/10/2010 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 3 NUMBERS Presented by: William C. Throne, CCIM, SIOR, ALC 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW First Number: First Number: Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate 12 94 12.94 12.94 12 94 12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW First Number: First Number: Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate 12.94% 12.94% 12.94% 12.94% 87.06% occupied! 11.1% in 2008 1

  2. 3/10/2010 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW First Number: First Number: Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate 12.94% 12.94% 12.94% 12.94% 1990 10.2% 11.1% in 2008 1991 10.9% 1992 13.5% 10.51% in 2007 1993 12.3% 1994 10.8% 5.87% in 2006 1995 9.2% 1996 8.7% 1997 8.6% 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW First Number: First Number: Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate 12.94% 12.94% Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate 12.94% 12.94% National Vacancy Rate : C&W: 10.8% CoStar: 10.1% 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW First Number: First Number: Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate 12.94% 12.94% 12.94% 12.94% Compared to other Markets: HR Submarkets (the good) : Savannah, GA 19.9% Chicago, IL 11.4% Oyster Point: 4.35% Richmond, VA 10.9% Williamsburg: 3.99% Seattle, WA 9.3% L.A. (South), CA 5.7% 2

  3. 3/10/2010 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW First Number: First Number: Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate 12.94% 12.94% 12.94% 12.94% HR Submarkets HR Submarkets (the good) : (the good) : Peninsula: 9.49% Lowered Vacancy in 2009: *Bainbridge *Lynnhaven *Portsmouth *Copeland *Oakland *Williamsburg 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW First Number: Second Number: Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate 4 4 12.94% 12.94% HR Submarkets (the not-so-good) : Norfolk Commerce Park: 38.41% Isle of Wight: 28.45% Suffolk: 19.13% 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW Second Number: Second Number: Rental Rate a Landlord would love to get for Rental Rate a Landlord would love to get for distribution space distribution space distribution space distribution space $4.00 NNN psf $4.00 NNN psf/yr /yr $4.00 NNN $4.00 NNN psf psf/yr /yr *This will remain something of a benchmark for warehouse space. *Market rents for other subgroups will cluster around: $4.75-$5.75 NNN for general industrial $5.50-$6.50 NNN for higher rent submarkets 3

  4. 3/10/2010 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW Second Number: Second Number: The number of predictions 4 4 I got wrong last year: I got wrong last year: 4 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW Second Number: Second Number: The number of predictions The number of predictions I got wrong last year: I got wrong last year: I got wrong last year: I got wrong last year: 4 4 1. GVA Advantis is bullish for 2009. 1. GVA Advantis is bullish for 2009. 2. There are two big deals about to be announced in the market. 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW Second Number: Second Number: The number of predictions The number of predictions I got wrong last year: I got wrong last year: I got wrong last year: I got wrong last year: 4 4 1. GVA Advantis is bullish for 2009. 1. GVA Advantis is bullish for 2009. 2. There are two big deals about to be announced in the market. 2. There are two big deals about to be announced in the market. 3. The local industrial market is healthy with a modestly successful 3. The local industrial market is healthy with a modestly successful 2009. 2009. 4. Vacancy rates are not expected to rise. 4

  5. 3/10/2010 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW Second Number: Third Number: The number of ‘big’ deals in the market 10 10 10 10 this year: this year: 4 1. Virginia Beach 2. Chesapeake 3. Norfolk 4. Suffolk 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW Third Number: Third Number: Wish list for additional building sales in 2010: Wish list for additional building sales in 2010: 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 more than last year! more than last year! more than last year! more than last year! *2009 had 20 industrial building sales compared to 34 for 2008, or a 42% reduction in sales volume. *2009 average sales price: $69.18 per square foot. *2008 average sales price: $70.89 per square foot. *Financing will become even more of a challenge. 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW Third Number: Third Number: Hopeful for a vacancy rate in 2010 of: 10 10 10 10 10% 10% 10% 10% +1%? +2%? +1%? +2%? 1. Ford Plant sold? 2.3 million square feet off the market. 2. One large warehouse deal, please? 3. NO INDUSTRIAL LAND SALES IN 2009. 4. No speculative development. 1. More general manufacturing properties may come to market. 5

  6. 3/10/2010 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW Third Number: Third Number: How can I be successful in: 10 10 10 10 20 2010? 10? 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs… 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW Third Number: Third Number: How can I be successful in: How can I be successful in: 2010? 20 10? 20 2010? 10? 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs… 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs… 2. Get your equity piece secure. 2. Get your equity piece secure. 3. Treat good tenants like the partners they are. 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW Third Number: Third Number: How can I be successful in: How can I be successful in: 20 2010? 10? 20 2010? 10? 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs… 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs… 2. Get your equity piece secure. 2. Get your equity piece secure. 3. Treat good tenants like the partners they are. 3. Treat good tenants like the partners they are. 4. Stay in touch with your lenders. 4. Stay in touch with your lenders. 5. Keep your sense of humor. 6

  7. 3/10/2010 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW Third Number: How can I be successful in: 20 2010? 10? 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs… 2. Get your equity piece secure. 3. Treat good tenants like the partners they are. 4. Stay in touch with your lenders. 5. Keep your sense of humor. 6. You want your friends to stay friends… 7

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