3 NUMBERS Presented by: William C. Throne, CCIM, SIOR, ALC 2009 - - PDF document

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3 NUMBERS Presented by: William C. Throne, CCIM, SIOR, ALC 2009 - - PDF document

Jan 08, 2024 377 likes •465 views

3/10/2010 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 3 NUMBERS Presented by: William C. Throne, CCIM, SIOR, ALC 2009 ODU / CREED 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW INDUSTRIAL REVIEW First Number: First

slide-1
SLIDE 1

3/10/2010 1

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Presented by: William C. Throne, CCIM, SIOR, ALC

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

3 NUMBERS

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 12 94 12 94

First Number:

12.94 12.94 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

87.06% occupied!

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

11.1% in 2008

12.94% 12.94%

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SLIDE 2

3/10/2010 2

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

12.94% 12.94%

11.1% in 2008 10.51% in 2007 5.87% in 2006

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

1990 10.2% 1991 10.9% 1992 13.5% 1993 12.3% 1994 10.8% 1995 9.2% 1996 8.7% 1997 8.6%

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 12.94% 12.94%

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

National Vacancy Rate:

C&W: 10.8% CoStar: 10.1%

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

Compared to other Markets:

Savannah, GA 19.9% Chicago, IL 11.4% Richmond, VA 10.9% Seattle, WA 9.3% L.A. (South), CA 5.7%

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

HR Submarkets (the good):

Oyster Point: 4.35% Williamsburg: 3.99%

12.94% 12.94%

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SLIDE 3

3/10/2010 3

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

HR Submarkets (the good):

Peninsula: 9.49%

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

HR Submarkets (the good):

Lowered Vacancy in 2009:

*Bainbridge *Lynnhaven *Portsmouth *Copeland *Oakland *Williamsburg

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

HR Submarkets (the not-so-good):

Norfolk Commerce Park: 38.41% Isle of Wight: 28.45% Suffolk: 19.13%

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 4

Second Number:

4 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Rental Rate a Landlord would love to get for distribution space

Second Number:

$4.00 NNN $4.00 NNN psf psf/yr /yr

distribution space

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Rental Rate a Landlord would love to get for distribution space

Second Number:

*This will remain something of a benchmark for warehouse space. *Market rents for other subgroups will cluster around: $4.75-$5.75 NNN for general industrial $5.50-$6.50 NNN for higher rent submarkets

$4.00 NNN $4.00 NNN psf psf/yr /yr

distribution space

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SLIDE 4

3/10/2010 4

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 4

Second Number:

4 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

The number of predictions I got wrong last year:

Second Number:

4

I got wrong last year:

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

The number of predictions I got wrong last year:

Second Number:

4

I got wrong last year:

  • 1. GVA Advantis is bullish for 2009.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

The number of predictions I got wrong last year:

Second Number:

4

I got wrong last year:

  • 1. GVA Advantis is bullish for 2009.
  • 2. There are two big deals about to be announced in the market.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

The number of predictions I got wrong last year:

Second Number:

4

I got wrong last year:

  • 1. GVA Advantis is bullish for 2009.
  • 2. There are two big deals about to be announced in the market.
  • 3. The local industrial market is healthy with a modestly successful

2009.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

The number of predictions I got wrong last year:

Second Number:

4

I got wrong last year:

  • 1. GVA Advantis is bullish for 2009.
  • 2. There are two big deals about to be announced in the market.
  • 3. The local industrial market is healthy with a modestly successful

2009.

  • 4. Vacancy rates are not expected to rise.
slide-5
SLIDE 5

3/10/2010 5

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

The number of ‘big’ deals in the market this year:

Second Number:

4

this year:

  • 1. Virginia Beach
  • 2. Chesapeake
  • 3. Norfolk
  • 4. Suffolk

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 10 10

Third Number:

10 10 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Wish list for additional building sales in 2010:

Third Number:

10 10 10 10

more than last year! more than last year!

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 10 10

Wish list for additional building sales in 2010:

Third Number:

10 10

more than last year! more than last year! *2009 had 20 industrial building sales compared to 34 for 2008,

  • r a 42% reduction in sales volume.

*2009 average sales price: $69.18 per square foot. *2008 average sales price: $70.89 per square foot. *Financing will become even more of a challenge.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 10 10

Third Number:

10 10 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 10% 10%

Hopeful for a vacancy rate in 2010 of:

Third Number:

10% 10%

+1%? +2%? +1%? +2%?

  • 1. Ford Plant sold? 2.3 million square feet off the market.
  • 2. One large warehouse deal, please?
  • 3. NO INDUSTRIAL LAND SALES IN 2009.
  • 4. No speculative development.
  • 1. More general manufacturing properties may come to market.
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SLIDE 6

3/10/2010 6

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 10 10

Third Number:

10 10 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

How can I be successful in:

Third Number:

20 2010? 10?

  • 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs…

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

How can I be successful in:

Third Number:

20 2010? 10?

  • 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs…
  • 2. Get your equity piece secure.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

How can I be successful in:

Third Number:

20 2010? 10?

  • 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs…
  • 2. Get your equity piece secure.
  • 3. Treat good tenants like the partners they are.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

How can I be successful in:

Third Number:

20 2010? 10?

  • 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs…
  • 2. Get your equity piece secure.
  • 3. Treat good tenants like the partners they are.
  • 4. Stay in touch with your lenders.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

How can I be successful in:

Third Number:

20 2010? 10?

  • 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs…
  • 2. Get your equity piece secure.
  • 3. Treat good tenants like the partners they are.
  • 4. Stay in touch with your lenders.
  • 5. Keep your sense of humor.
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SLIDE 7

3/10/2010 7

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

How can I be successful in:

Third Number:

20 2010? 10?

  • 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs…
  • 2. Get your equity piece secure.
  • 3. Treat good tenants like the partners they are.
  • 4. Stay in touch with your lenders.
  • 5. Keep your sense of humor.
  • 6. You want your friends to stay friends…