29ISMOR Approaches for Vignette Based Analysis in a Changing World - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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29ISMOR Approaches for Vignette Based Analysis in a Changing World Jenny Young & Alistair Morley Operational Analysis, MBDA UK

This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.

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Contents

• Context
• MBDA OA group and our operating environment
• What is a vignette?
• Key components
• How does a vignette differ from a scenario ?
• Usage of vignettes in MBDA
• Why do we use them ?
• What do we use them for ?
• Case Studies
• Decision Challenges & Lessons learned
• Summary

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MBDA Operational Analysis Group

• 12 Analysts based in UK
• Part of the Future Systems

Directorate

• International Working
• Focus on potential weapon system

solutions for 2020+

• Primarily concept and assessment

phase activities

• Typical Study Environment
• User & System Requirements are fluid
• Different types of solution are possible
• Solutions are immature
• Limited data available
• Limited time & resources

MBDA • European Centres of Excellence

Lostock

Production

UK 2,700 UK 2,700 IT 1300 IT 1300

10,000 people worldwide, 60% in Technical/Engineering functions

Bristol

Software & Systems

Stevenage

Management R&D/Integration

Stevenage

Management R&D/Integration

London

Management

GE 1,200 GE 1,200

La Spezia

R&D/Integration

Aschau

R&D/Production

Schrobenhausen

Management/R&D/ Production/ Integration

Ulm

R&D

Brussels

Representation Office

Rome

Management/R&D

Fusaro

Production/Integration/R&D

USA 140 USA 140 FR 4,500 FR 4,500

Région Centre

R&D/Production/ Integration

Le Plessis-Robinson

Management/R&D

Compiègne

Electronic

Madrid

Management

ES 8 ES 8

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What is a vignette (i)

Vignette: Noun. Lit. “little vine”

• 1. a small illustration placed at the beginning or end of a book or

chapter

• 2. a short graceful literary essay or sketch
• 3. a photograph, drawing, etc, with edges that are shaded off
• 4. architect a carved ornamentation that has a design based upon

tendrils, leaves, etc

• 5. any small endearing scene, view, picture, etc

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Vignette Key Components

Vignette 4 Hasty defence against armour in rural

• 1. A BLUE armoured force is securing a forward objective when it

encounters a similar enemy force. The enemy appears to be forming up for an attack and the BLUE force assumes hasty defensive positions. 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2

• 2. The enemy force presses the attack. The ground

is relatively open with some cover from vegetation and abandoned homesteads. 1, 2

• 3. EXCURSION. The attack is

supported by a Mi-24 Helicopter at low level, targeting BLUE vehicles. 3

• 1. Identity
• 2. Problem statement
• 3. Agents or Actors

Vignette Constraints e.g. Operation:

• Type: Phase:

Target:

• Type: Motion: Signature: HVT/TST: Effect / Kill Criteria:

Defences: Environment:

• Urban/Rural etc.: Terrain: Vegetation: Time (Day/Night):
• Weather: Temperature: Altitude:

Op Environment:

• False Targets: CCD: Sensor Jamming: GPS Jamming: Comms

Jamming: DL Jamming: Targeting:

• Method: Accuracy: Endurance:

ROE: Collateral Damage: Fratricide

Complete or Partial Solutions

Variations & Excursions

• 4. Constraints
• 5. Additional Information

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Vignettes vs. Scenarios (i)

• How does a vignette differ from a scenario?
• Some suggestions..
• By taxonomic relation
• A scenario (could) contain many vignettes
• By detail
• Far less information
• De-situated context, usually lacking strategic context
• Real-world geography less critical
• By scale:
• Smaller in time / duration
• Smaller in space
• Smaller in scale of forces involved (typically < sub-formation)
• But can be ranges >1,000km, timespan of days, and include dozens
• f platforms.

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Vignettes vs. scenarios (ii)

• How does a vignette differ from a scenario? (cont.)
• By format
• Typically richer in graphics and narrative, less quantitative.
• By function
• Often built for a specific analytical task (e.g. portfolio analysis)
• ...and then adapted for other purposes - possibly in addition to

scenario-like usage.

• By user:
• Accessible to non-specialists
• Used outside the traditional analytical community
• Problem of (false) familiarity!
• By security classification:
• Internationally shareable

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Why do we use Vignettes in MBDA ?

International studies System level focus Appropriate level of detail Multi-disciplinary Teams Limited budget for method development Smaller studies / less detail needed Funding constraints Applicable to multiple scenarios Availability of GFX Previous success Time constraints Few high level models Easy to analyse / score Easy to create, maintain & re-use Enduring and robust to strategic change

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What do we use Vignettes for ?

• Customer acquisition planning and Industrial portfolio planning
• In lieu of requirements – represents the ‘far’ future
• Future Operational Requirements
• Concurrency of requirements – ‘real life’ combinations
• Shared awareness and understanding – International alignment of requirements
• Context and illustration – for engineering team
• Support to weapon system concept development
• Illustrate and develop outline CONEMP
• System & sub-system level trade-offs and down-selection
• Force mix studies
• Do weapon system options complement or duplicate capability ?
• Competitor assessment & Win Themes
• Stockpile planning
• Sales and Marketing

Emphasis: How to create a better product

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• Solution constraints will become more “specific” as studies

progress through the project lifecycle.

Representing the Solution

Sales & Marketing illustration Candidate solution down-select Portfolio planning Solution CONEMP

Specific FJ 1 or 2 types of FJ Any platform Any Air Launched Any FJ More solution specific Less solution specific

Launch Platform Example Usage

Project Lifecycle

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Vignettes as components of a SCENARIO

Vignette

Set of vignettes. Common setting and frequency-weighted

Scenario Operational Future Alternative Operational Futures

Stockpile Planning Force Mix or Portfolio Effectiveness Candidate Solution Effectiveness

Set of scenarios. Time-ordered with common protagonist Set of operational futures

Competitor Assessment & Win Themes

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Vignettes as components of a REQUIREMENT

Vignette

Set of vignettes. Common setting and frequency-weighted

Summary of capability requirement Scenario Operational Future Alternative Operational Futures Multiple Capability Requirements

Set of vignettes spanning a requirement. No duplication. Set of scenarios. Time-ordered with common protagonist Set of operational futures Set of capability requirements

Formulate Operational Requirements Outline Solution CONEMP Aligning International Requirements Weapon System Concept development Industrial Portfolio Planning Candidate Solution Down-selection Sales and Marketing Illustrations Customer Acquisition Planning Context for Experimentation

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Case Studies

• Customer acquisition planning and Industrial portfolio planning
• In lieu of requirements – represents the ‘far’ future
• Future Operational Requirements
• Concurrency of requirements – ‘real life’ combinations
• Shared awareness and understanding – International alignment of requirements
• Context and illustration – for engineering team
• Support to weapon system concept development
• Illustrate and develop outline CONEMP
• System & sub-system level trade-offs and down-selection
• Force mix studies
• Do weapon system options complement or duplicate capability ?
• Competitor assessment & Win Themes
• Stockpile planning
• Sales and Marketing

UK Focus Export Focus

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1: UK Force Mix Study

• Aim
• Identify favourable concept
• ptions
• Assess stockpile implications
• Scope
• Surface Attack weapons
• Air-launched and ground-

launched

• Scale
• 1 Nation
• 30 Vignettes
• 6 Scenarios
• 100 Operational futures
• 27 weapon concepts –

including variants

• 10 Force Mixes
• Approach
• Bottom up – assessment of

concepts in individual vignettes

• Results ‘multiplied up’ to force

mix capability over 20 years for all operational futures

• Toolset
• Judgemental assessment
• Spreadsheet based collation

and manipulation of data

Consumption over 100 Runs - Option 1 (MDB)

• 1000

1000 3000 5000 7000 9000 11000 13000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 Runs (Ordered) Total Consumption

Scenario Percentage coverage by weapon for all scenarios in Run 2 (JLY)

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 100.00% OPTION 1 OPTION 2 OPTION 3 OPTION 4 OPTION 5 OPTION 6 OPTION 7 OPTION 8 OPTION 9 OPTION 10 OPTION 12

Force Mix Option

Proportion of coverage by Vignette given by each weapon

Vignette Coverage by Force mix Weapon Consumption by Operational Future

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2: Export Force Mix Study

• Aim
• Identify ‘Win Themes’
• Provide quantitative evidence
• Scope
• Fast-Jet Surface Attack weapons
• Scale
• 6 Nations
• 60 Vignettes
• 15 Scenarios
• 3 Force Mixes per nation
• Do nothing: Legacy weapons
• Buy MBDA weapon
• Buy Competitor weapon
• 100+ Feasible Weapon load-outs
• Approach
• Top down – Review of National

Defence Policies, then development of relevant scenarios and vignettes

• Outputs
• Total numbers of weapons used

per scenario

• Percentage of targets addressed

per national scenario

• Weapon strengths against types
• f targets per national scenario
• Toolset
• Spreadsheet based genetic

algorithm model

• Algorithms defined for matching

aircraft load-outs to vignettes, given system and operational constraints

Armour Light Armour ADU SSV Personnel, Open Personnel, Building Industrial Hardened FAC Frigate 50A 100B 500 lb 2,000 lb Generic ALCM Generic ASuW Generic ARM 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Weapon Releases Target Class Weapon classes

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

1 10 100 1,000 10,000

Population Density of target locale Persons per sq km Cumulative frequency of Vignettes at or below this density

Demanding Constraints

Few Constraints

Rural Sub-Urban Urban Desert / Sea

Weapon to Target matching Scenario Variation

E X A M P L E D A T A

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3: Portfolio Planning

• Aim
• Support decision making for

industrial product portfolio

• Provide automated real-time

assessment for use in workshops

• Scope
• Future complex weapon

concepts of all types

• Scale
• 2 Nations
• 23 Capabilities
• 29 Vignettes
• ~100 Weapon/platform

combinations

• Approach
• Concept vs vignette

assessment reduced to key parameters

• Vignettes mapped to

capabilities

• Toolset
• Part of a Portfolio planning

spreadsheet providing cost and capability output EXAMPLE DATA

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Decision Challenges

• Selecting a balanced and representative set of vignettes.

Trade-off: study richness vs study complexity

• Review by multiple stakeholders
• Approachable with Principal Component Analysis and optimisation /

Hopfield nets if required

• Combining judgement based scores from multiple assessors
• Variations in assessor scores found to be valid interpretations of the

vignette – used to represent operational variability

• Choosing between credible weapon options when more than one
• ption can satisfy a vignette
• Minimise number of weapons required
• Maximise targets killed (within platform load-out constraints)
• Minimise cost – preferred ... But
• Cost data often immature or unavailable
• Unit Production Cost favours air launched weapons
• ‘Difficult’ vignettes can distort results - What is the cost of not doing the

task ?

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Lessons Learned

• Documentation for vignettes is essential
• Unique identifiers and change history
• Record and disseminate why vignettes have been excluded from

a selection that represents an operational requirement – other people will keep trying to put them back in...

• Vignettes are a good aid to communication, but its still possible

for people to have different interpretations of a vignette

• Can be useful – highlights different viewpoints
• Also exposes biases and misunderstanding
• Having multiple target types in a vignette adds richness – but

also complicates the analysis

• Tendency for everyone to think they can do OA !

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Summary

• Vignettes have been widely adopted within MBDA UK and are

used for many purposes

• OA, Systems Engineering, Portfolio planning, Sales...
• Increasingly used internationally within MBDA
• Shareable - low classification
• Discussion and alignment of national requirements
• International Product portfolio planning
• A vital component in the OA toolset
• Supports low cost, quick turn-around studies
• The basis for complex higher level studies

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Questions ?