2020 US Senate Elections Jamie DeAntonis Columbia University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2020 US Senate Elections Jamie DeAntonis Columbia University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2020 US Senate Elections Jamie DeAntonis Columbia University jad2295@columbia.edu November 22, 2019 Jamie DeAntonis (Columbia University) US Senate November 22, 2019 1 / 11 Overview Government Structure 1 Party Breakdown of Current

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2020 US Senate Elections

Jamie DeAntonis

Columbia University jad2295@columbia.edu

November 22, 2019

Jamie DeAntonis (Columbia University) US Senate November 22, 2019 1 / 11

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Overview

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Government Structure

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Party Breakdown of Current Senate

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Forecast of Party Breakdown after 2020 Senate Election

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Overview of US Government

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The Senate and the House of Representatives

Senate 100 members; 2 from each state 6-year terms (staggered across even years) House of Representatives 435 members; number from each state determined by population 2-year terms (every even year)

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Current Senate Map

Rep Dem Current 53 47

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Senators with Seats up for Election in 2020

Rep Dem Current 53 47 To be contested in 2020 23 12

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Breakdown of Result Probabilities

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Toss-Up Races

Rep-controlled Dem-controlled Martha McSally, AZ Doug Jones, AL Cory Gardner, CO Susan Collins, ME

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Formalizing Probabilities

We define the following probabilities: Category Probability Solid .9 Likely .75 Lean .6 Toss-Up .5 Then, assuming an independence assumption amongst races, we have eight binomial random variables, {RS, RLi, RLe, RT, DT, DLe, DLi, DS}. More succinctly, {Xi}, where X ∈ P = {R, D} and i ∈ R = {S, Li, Le, T}. Let each of these variables take on 1 if a democrat wins and 0 otherwise. Now, we need P

X∈P

  • i∈R

Xi ≥ 15

  • Jamie DeAntonis (Columbia University)

US Senate November 22, 2019 9 / 11

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MLE

Party RS RLi RLe T DLe DLi DS Seats Total Rep 11 5 1 2 1 20 50 Dem 1 2 2 1 2 7 15 50

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The End

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