2020 Census: Ci+zenship, Science, Poli+cs, and Privacy Perspec+ves - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2020 Census: Ci+zenship, Science, Poli+cs, and Privacy

Perspec+ves from the Na+onal Academy of Sciences’ (NAS) CommiBee on Na+onal Sta+s+cs (CNSTAT)

James S. House Angus Campbell Dis+nguished University Professor Emeritus

• f Survey Research, Public Policy, and Sociology

University of Michigan And Member, NAS CommiBee on Na+onal Sta+s+cs. 2012-2018 October 31, 2018

KEY (oUen unrecognized) ASPECTS of U.S. FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM (FSS)

• 1. FSS derives from and hence is inherently

enmeshed with our poli+cal system, e.g.,

U.S. Decennial Census (“Enumera+on”) mandated by Ar+cle I, Sec+on 2 of U.S. Cons+tu+on under aegis of Congress for purposes of appor+oning Representa+ves and Taxes (conducted by U.S. marshals overseen by Secretary of State from 1790 thru 1840 and special decennial census offices from 1850 thru 1900, and since 1903 by Census Bureau) Other FSS sta+s+cal agencies established in major departments

• r agencies to fill specific needs (e.g., Bureau of Labor Sta+s+cs

between 1884 and 1913 or Energy Informa+on Administra+on in 1977)

KEY (oUen unrecognized) ASPECTS of U.S. FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM (FSS) (cont.)

• 2. Each FSS principal agency receives Congressional and

Execu+ve branch oversight, and the Directors of 3 are Presiden+al appointees (though rest of Directors and staffs are civil service appointees) The following figure illustrates the organiza3onal posi3on of the principal sta3s3cal agencies and other recognized sta3s3cal units

Bureau of Justice Statistics (Director) Energy Information Administration (Administrator) National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (Director) Statistical and Science Policy Office, OMB (Chief Statistician) Economic Research Service (Administrator) National Agricultural Statistics Service (Administrator) Census Bureau (Director) Bureau of Economic Analysis (Director) Administrator, Office

• f Information and

Regulatory Affairs Deputy Director for Management Director, Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences Directorate Director, National Science Foundation / Deputy Under Secretary for Economic Affairs, Economics and Statistics Administration Secretary of Commerce / Deputy Assistant Attorney General, Office of Justice Programs Associate Attorney General Attorney General / Deputy Under Secretary for Research, Education, and Economics Secretary of Agriculture / Deputy Statistics of Income Division, IRS (Director) Director, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics / Deputy Commissioner, Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Secretary of the Treasury / Deputy Secretary of Energy / Deputy Agriculture Commerce, Justice, Science Energy and Water Development Financial Services and General Government

Congressional Appropriations Subcommittee Reporting Authority, Parent Department/Agency to Statistical Agency (Head) (Box indicates Presidential Appointee with Senate Confirmation; italic type indicates authority chain for Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act [CIPSEA]-recognized statistical unit)

National Animal Health Monitoring System Program Unit (Chief) Deputy Administrator, Veterinary Services Director, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Under Secretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs Chief Economist

National Center for Health Statistics (Director) Office of Environmental Information (Chief Statistician) Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, SSA (Director) Bureau of Transportation Statistics (Director) Secretary of Labor / Deputy Director, Coordinating Center for Health Information and Service Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Secretary of Health and Human Services / Deputy Assistant Administrator and Chief Information Officer Environmental Protection Agency Administrator / Deputy Deputy Commissioner for Retirement and Disability Policy Commissioner, Social Security Administration / Deputy Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology Secretary of Transportation / Deputy Bureau of Labor Statistics (Commissioner) National Center for Education Statistics (Commissioner) Director, Institute of Education Sciences Secretary of Education / Under Secretary Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Center for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality (Director) Administrator, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Microeconomic Surveys Statistical Unit (Director) Division of Research and Statistics (Director/Deputy Director/Senior Associate Director) Board of Governors

• f the Federal

Reserve System

KEY (oUen unrecognized) ASPECTS of U.S. FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM (FSS) (cont.)

• 3. Since 1972 all federal sta+s+cal agencies receive

advice and counsel from CNSTAT of the NAS, including regular publica+on of Principles and Prac-ces for a Federal Sta-s-cal Agency hBps://www.nap.edu/catalog/24810/principles-and- prac+ces-for-a-federal-sta+s+cal-agency-sixth-edi+on (preceding figure based on Figure 1.2 of P&P)

Principles for a Federal Sta+s+cal Agency

• Principle 1: Relevance to Policy Issues: A federal sta+s+cal agency

must be in a posi+on to provide objec+ve, accurate, and +mely informa+on that is relevant to issues of public policy.

• Principle 2: Credibility among Data Users: A federal sta+s+cal

agency must have credibility with those who use its data and informa+on.

• Principle 3: Trust among Data Providers: A federal sta+s+cal

agency must have the trust of those whose informa+on it obtains.

• Principle 4: Independence from Poli3cal and Other Undue

External Influence: A federal sta+s+cal agency must be independent

from poli+cal and other undue external influence in developing, producing, and dissemina+ng sta+s+cs. [added in latest (2017) edi;on]

Prac+ces cri+cal for the effec+ve, principled

• pera+on of a sta+s+cal agency:
• 1. a clearly defined and well-accepted mission,
• 2. necessary authority to protect independence,
• 3. use of mul+ple data sources for sta+s+cs that meet user needs,
• 4. openness about sources and limita+ons of the data provided,
• 5. wide dissemina+on of accessible and easy-to-use data,
• 6. coopera+on with data users,
• 7. respect for the privacy and autonomy of data providers,
• 8. protec+on of the confiden+ality of data providers’ informa+on,
• 9. commitment to quality and professional standards of prac+ce,
• 10. an ac+ve research program,
• 11. professional advancement of staff,
• 12. a strong internal and external evalua+on program, and
• 13. coordina+on and collabora+on with other sta+s+cal agencies.

ONGOING CONCERN, CONTROVERSY, AND OPPOSITION TO ADDITION OF CITIZENSHIP QUESTION TO 2020 CENSUS

• A. BACKGROUND
• 1. Varied ques+ons related to ci+zenship/birth origins asked in

1820 and 1830, 1870, and 1890 – 1950 (and in 1960 only for and at the expense of New York and Puerto Rico).

• 2. In 1970 Census divided into a very brief short-form (circa 10

Qs) for all households, and a long-form asked only in a probability sample of 15-20% of households, which included ci+zenship/birth origin ques+ons.

• 3. AUer 2000, the long-form was replaced by the ongoing

American Community Survey, providing more con+nuous data down to local levels of aggrega+on—including a single standardized ques+on on ci+zenship

ONGOING CONCERN, CONTROVERSY, AND OPPOSITION OVER ADDITION OF CITIZENSHIP QUESTION TO 2020 CENSUS (cont.)

• B. CONCERN, CONTROVERSY, AND OPPOSITION OVER 2018

COMMERCE DEPARTMENT DECISION TO “RESTORE”/ADD CITIZENSHIP QUESTION TO 2020 CENSUS AS LAST OF 11 QUESTIONS

– 1. Proposed, but not yet passed, Congressional legisla+on – 2. Lawsuits in Federal Court (coming to trial in New York in November, pending appeal to U.S. Supreme Court to delay) – 3. Official and unofficial concern/opposi+on via normal channels and ongoing comment processes, including: – 4. CNSTAT/NAS “task force” leBer report, as response to Federal Register no+ce of data collec+on in the 2020 census: hBps://www.nap.edu/catalog/25215/leBer-report-on- the-2020-census

ONGOING CONCERN, CONTROVERSY, AND OPPOSITION TO ADDITION OF CITIZENSHIP QUESTION TO 2020 CENSUS (cont.)

• C. MAIN ARGUMENTS FOR CNSTAT OPPOSITION

– 1. No need: “ACS already meets the stated need [vo+ng rights enforcement] for ci+zenship data.” – 2. Impairment of Quality of 2020 Census: “Adding the ci+zenship ques+on without proper tes+ng [which is not possible] will impair the quality of the 2020 Census as a whole” [e.g., ques+on adequacy/validity, public coopera+on/ nonresponse, cost] – 3. Viola+on of exis+ng statutes and mission of Census Bureau: “Adding the ci+zenship ques+on . . . using the method described in the Secretary’s memo would create a new popula+on register which . . . could not, under current law, be used for nonsta+s+cal purposes . . . [e.g., law enforcement] and s+ll comport with the mission of the Census Bureau.”

CONCLUSION

• When you vote for President, Senators, Representa+ves in

the House, Governors, and State Legislators, think not only

• f the courts/SCOTUS, but also of the Federal Sta+s+cal

System (and state and local analogues thereof)

• And see Karlan, Pamela S., Reappor+onment,

Nonappor+onment, and Recovering Some Lost History of One-Person, One Vote (August 22, 2017). William & Mary Law Review, Forthcoming; Stanford Public Law Working

• Paper. Available at SSRN:

hBps://ssrn.com/abstract=3028237 or hBp://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3028237