2018 Economic Forum C ALHOUN C OUNTY C HAMBER OF C OMMERCE AND V - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2018 Economic Forum CALHOUN COUNTY CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND VISITORS CENTER

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2

Calhoun County Economy Forum

• National Update (Slides 3-15)
• Alabama Update (Slides 16-53)
• Calhoun County Update (Slides 54-122)

GDP % Change from Preceding Period for U.S. 1st Qtr 2015 – 4th Qtr 2017

3.2% 2.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.6% 2.2% 2.8% 1.8% 1.2% 3.1% 3.2% 2.6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 15Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 16Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 17Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

3

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Real Gross Domestic Product Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

2.6% 4th Qtr 2017

U.S. Industrial Production Jan 2015 – Dec 2017

106 106 105 105 105 104 105 103 104 105 104 104 104 105 105 105 107 108 103 104 105 106 107 108 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

4

Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System

+3.60% 12 Months

Change in Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment for U.S. Jan 2014 - Jan 2018 in 1,000s

168 306 331 265 84 277 149 295 168 233 24 271 135 156 232 50 208 38 160 200 100 200 300 400 500 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Payroll Emp in 1,000s

Jan 18 Pre +200,000

5

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Seasonally Adjusted

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Feb 2016–Feb 2018

17,685 18,401 19,124 19,864 20,941 21,830 23,837 26,617 24,191 15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 F-16 A-16 F-17 A-17 F-18

6

Source: NY Stock Exchange

+22.20% 12 Months

Consumer Price Index U.S. Jan 2015-Dec 2017

235.2 238.0 237.7 239.8 243.0 243.8 247.6 230 235 240 245 250 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

7

+2.1% 12 Months

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jan 2015 – Jan 2018

98 93 90 93 89 95 91 94 98 97 97 95 101 99 96 75 85 95 105 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18

8

Source: University of Michigan Institute of Social Research

Last 12 Months -2.8%

Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services in U.S. Jan 2015-Dec 2017 in $ Bill

$436 $445 $450 $453 $458 $469 $475 $477 $494 $495 $410 $430 $450 $470 $490 $510 Jan-2015 Jan-2016 Jan-2017 In $Billions

9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

+5.60% 12 Months

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index Jan 2015-Dec 2017

175 178 179 181 185 188 188 190 194 198 199 203 170 180 190 200 210 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

10

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPCS20:IND

+6.60% 12 Months

Labor Force U.S. 2007-2017 in Millions

153 154 154 154 154 155 155 156 157 159 161 148 150 152 154 156 158 160 162 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 In Millions

11

Seasonally Adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Labor Force U.S. Jan – Dec 2017 in Millions

159.7 160.1 160.2160.2 159.8 160.1 160.5 160.6 161.1 160.4 160.5160.6 158 159 160 161 162

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

In Millions

12

+881,000 12 Months Seasonally Adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

13

Employment U.S. 2007-2017 in Millions

138 137 131 130 132 134 136 139 142 144 153 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 In Millions

Seasonally Adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment U.S. Jan – Dec 2017 in Millions

152 153 153 153 153 153 154 153 154 154 154 154 151 152 153 154 155

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

In Millions

14

+1,940,000 12 Months Seasonally Adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate U.S. Jan 2017 - Jan 2018

15

4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5% 4.8% 5.0%

Jan-17 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-18

% Unemployed

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

• .7%

from 2017

16

State of Alabama Economy

• Population (17-24)
• Labor Force (27-28)
• Employment (29-30)
• Unemployment (31-35)
• Tax Revenues (36-42)

Population Estimates State of Alabama 2007-2017 in Millions

4.67 4.72 4.76 4.79 4.80 4.82 4.83 4.85 4.86 4.86 4.87 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 In Millions

17

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

18

High Inbound Balanced High Outbound

Source: United Van Lines 2016 Movers Study

Migration Patterns Based Upon Household Moves Jan-Dec 2016

Alabama Out - 793 In - 893

Migration Patterns Based Upon Household Moves Jan-Dec 2017

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Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2017

Inbound Outbound Balanced Alabama Out - 745 In - 986

Top Inbound & Top Outbound States for Migration 2017

Top 10 Inbound States

• 1. Vermont
• 2. Oregon
• 3. Idaho
• 4. Nevada
• 5. S Dakota

20

• 6. Washington
• 7. S Carolina
• 8. N Carolina
• 9. Colorado
• 10. Alabama

Top 10 Outbound States

• 1. Illinois
• 2. New Jersey
• 3. New York
• 4. Connecticut
• 5. Kansas
• 6. Massachusetts
• 7. Ohio
• 8. Kentucky
• 9. Utah

10.Wisconsin

Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2017

Alabama Migration Patterns Based Upon Household Moves 2012-2017

Year of Study Classification* Inbound Outbound Percentage 2017 Inbound 986 745 57% 2016 Balanced 893 795 53% 2015 Inbound 1092 819 57% 2014 Balanced 962 887 52% 2013 Balanced 1121 955 54% 2012 Balanced 1151 1019 53%

21

*55% ratio of moved are Inbound

Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2017

Top Reported Reasons for Migration In and Out of Alabama 2017

22

Inbound Reason Top Reasons Reported Outbound Reason

14.44% Retirement 5.83% 6.67% Health 4.17% 21.67% Family 14.17% 6.11% Lifestyle 3.33% 61.11% Job* 74.17%

Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2017

Age for Migration In and Out of Alabama 2017

23

Inbound Age Age Categories Outbound Age

19.19% <18 to 34 27.68%* 18.02% 35-44 14.29% 16.28% 45-54 26.79% 28.49%* 55-64 14.29% 18.02% 65 and Older 16.96%

Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2017

Income for Migration In and Out of Alabama 2017

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Inbound Income Income Categories Outbound Income

8.53% Less than $50,000 8.00% 27.91%* $50,000 to $74,999 16.00% 13.95% $75,000 to $99,999 14.00% 22.48% $100,000 to $149,000 23.00% 27.13%* $150,000 or More 39.00%*

Source: United Van Lines Migration Study 2017

GDP % Change from Preceding Year for State of AL Vs U.S. 2007 - 2016

4.5% 1.6%

• 2.1%

3.8% 3.7% 4.1% 3.3% 4.4% 4.0% 2.8% 3.3% 1.6%

• 2.5%

3.8% 3.4% 2.9% 2.4% 1.9% 3.3% 2.6%

• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

US AL

25

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Current $

GDP % Change from Previous Quarter State of AL Vs U.S. 1st Qtr 2016-3rd Qtr 2017

0.9% 4.6% 4.2% 3.6% 3.3% 4.1% 5.3% 1.9% 5.0% 1.1% 4.6% 6.8% 3.7% 4.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3

US AL

26

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Current $

*

Labor Force State of Alabama 2007-2017 in Millions

2.17 2.17 2.16 2.19 2.20 2.17 2.15 2.15 2.14 2.18 2.18 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.22 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 In Millions

27

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

Labor Force State of Alabama Jan – Dec 2017 in Millions

2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.20 2.18 2.16 2.15 2.15 2.16 2.16 2.17 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.22

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

In Millions

28

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

29

Employment State of Alabama 2007-2017 in Millions

2.09 2.05 1.92 1.96 1.99 1.99 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.05 2.07 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.05 2.10 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 In Millions

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

Employment State of Alabama Jan – Dec 2017 in Millions

2.05 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.06 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.09 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

In Millions

30

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

+39,226 for 12 Months Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate State of AL Jan - Dec 2016 vs 2017

31

6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 6.0% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.4% 5.7% 5.9% 6.2% 6.4% 6.2% 5.8% 5.4% 4.9% 4.6% 4.5% 4.2% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

% Unemployed 2016 2017

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

• 2.9% from 2016

Unemployment Rate AL vs U.S. Jan - Dec 2017

32

6.4% 6.2% 5.8%5.4% 4.9% 4.6% 4.5% 4.2% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

% Unemployed AL U.S.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted

33

KY 4.8% TN 4.9% MS 5.6% NC 5.1% SC 4.3% FL 4.9% AL 6.2%

Unemployment Rates Southeastern United States Dec 2016

Seasonally Adjusted

GA 5.4%

Source: AL Dept of Labor

34

KY 4.4% TN 3.2% MS 4.6% NC 4.5% SC 4.1% FL 3.7% AL 3.5%

Unemployment Rates Southeastern United States Dec 2017

Seasonally Adjusted

GA 4.4%

Source: AL Dept of Labor

Job Quit Levels Annual Per Month Average for U.S. South Region 2007-2017 in Thousands

1204 1027 711 743 795 882 961 1067 1154 1201 1286 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 In Thousands

35

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Gross Revenue Collections State of Alabama FY11-12 – FY16-17 in $ Billions

$8.93 $9.28 $9.40 $9.78 $9.90 $10.31 $8.00 $8.50 $9.00 $9.50 $10.00 $10.50 FY11-12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 In $ Billions

36

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

+4.16% from FY 15-16

*

*Record High for Alabama

Individual Income Tax Gross Collections State of Alabama FY11-12 – FY16-17 in $ Billions

$3.58 $3.75 $3.75 $3.93 $4.07 $4.21 $3.20 $3.40 $3.60 $3.80 $4.00 $4.20 $4.40 FY11-12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 In $ Billions

37

+3.31% from 2016

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

Sales Tax Gross Collections State of Alabama FY11-12 – FY16-17 in $ Billions

$1.99 $2.03 $2.08 $2.15 $2.24 $2.28 $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 $2.10 $2.20 $2.30 $2.40 FY11-12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 In $ Billions

38

+1.83% from FY 15-16

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax State of AL in $ Millions FYTD 16-17 vs FYTD 17-18

39

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue Oct-Jan

In $ Millions FYTD 16-17 FYTD 17-18 % Change

Individual Income Tax

$1,193 $1,293 +8.32%

Sales Tax

$776 $780 +3.01%

Total

$3,461 $3,619 +4.57%

Total/Sales/Individual Income Tax State of AL in $ Millions Jan 2017 vs Jan 2018

40

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

In $ Millions

Jan 2017 Jan 2018

% Change

Individual Income Tax

$265.99 $305.93 +15.02%

Sales Tax

$205.30 $211.56 +3.05%

Total

$942.68 $992.19 +5.25%

Simplified Sellers Use Tax Program* State of Alabama Total Collections by Fiscal Quarter FY16Q1-FY2017Q4

$0.01 $0.47 $1.81 $2.08 $7.24 $16.82 $15.04 $16.71 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20

FY16Q1 FY16Q2 FY16Q3 FY16Q4 FY17Q1 FY17Q2 FY17Q3 FY17Q4

In $ Billions

41

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

$52.4 Millions FY 2017

*State capturing online sales as use tax, Amazon joins 11/01/16

Simplified Sellers Use Tax Program State of Alabama FY 2016-2017

General Fund $19,635,891 38% Counties $13,090,594 25% Municipalities $13,090,594 25% Education $6,545,297 12%

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Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

$52.4 Millions FY 2017

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Housing Statistics State of AL 2016 vs 2017 2016 2017

% Change

Median Price

$141,442 $148,913 +5.3%

Avg Days on Market

142 130

• 8.5%

Total Homes Sold

53,759 57,569 +7.1%

Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

44

• State Survey – 4th Quarter 2017
• Approximately 164 respondents
• Operated by University of Alabama Center for

Business and Economic Research

• cber.cba.ua.edu

Alabama Business Confidence Index

CULVERHOUSE College of Commerce

45

0.6% 7.9% 42.4% 47.3% 1.8% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Much Worse Worse Remain the Same Better Much Better % of Respondents

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

Economic Outlook for Alabama Q4 2017 compared to Q3 2017

46

53.0 55.1 52.4 52.6 62.7 65.2 61.6 58.7 50 56 62 68 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Index Value

Economic Outlook Index for Alabama Q1 16 – Q4 17

% Change Q3 17 – Q4 17 -4.72% % Change Q4 16 – Q4 17 +12.0%

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

Hiring Outlook for Alabama Q4 2017 compared to Q3 2017

3.0% 5.5% 53.3% 36.4% 1.8% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Strong Decrease Moderate Decrease No Change Moderate Increase Strong Increase % of Respondents

47

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

53.9 54.9 49.9 51.9 57.6 60.7 58.9 57.4 49 53 57 61 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Index Value

Hiring Outlook Index for Alabama Q1 16 – Q4 17

48

% Change Q3 17 – Q4 17 -2.50% % Change Q4 16 – Q4 17 +10.6%

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

Sales Outlook for Alabama Q4 2017 compared to Q3 2017

0.6% 7.9% 42.4% 47.3% 1.8% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Strong Decrease Moderate Decrease No Change Moderate Increase Strong Increase % of Respondents

49

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

55.1 57.9 54.3 54.9 63.4 67.2 62.6 58.8 52 56 60 64 68 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Index Value

Sales Outlook Index for Alabama Q1 16 – Q4 17

50

% Change Q3 17 – Q4 17 -6.0% % Change Q4 16 – Q4 17 +7.1%

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

1.2% 5.8% 49.7% 39.2% 4.1% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Strong Decrease Moderate Decrease No Change Moderate Increase Strong Increase % of Respondents

51

Capital Expenditures Outlook Q4 2017 compared to Q3 2017

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

52.8 53.0 55.1 52.0 58.5 61.9 59.8 57.4 50 54 58 62 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Index Value

52

Capital Expenditures Outlook Alabama Q1 16 – Q4 17

% Change Q3 17 - Q4 17 -4.0% % Change Q4 16 - Q4 17 +10.8%

Source: Alabama Business Confidence Index

State of Alabama Summary

• Population Census Up, High Inbound State (57%)
• State GDP Up (2016 2.6%, 2017 estimate June 18)
• Labor Force Flat to Up Slightly (+4,000 2017, Trending Down)
• Employment Up (+27,433 2017)
• Unemployment Rate Down (3.5% Dec)
• Housing Up (+7.1% Homes Sold 2016 vs 2017)
• State Tax Revenues Exceed $10 Billion 1st Time ($10.31 B)

53

Calhoun County Economy

54

Calhoun County Economy

55

• Membership Survey (56-78)
• Employment (81-90)
• County Tax Collections (94-96)
• Tourism & Housing (97-101)
• Municipal Tax Collections (102-113)
• Economic Development Council (115-124)

Membership Survey of Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce 2018

• Ten years of data from Membership
• Results for seven questions
• First chart last years results
• Second chart this years results
• Third chart results from last 10 years
• Index value = (sum of item values)x(response%)/(#options)

56

57

0% 11% 22% 46% 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Much Worse Worse About Same Better Much Better

Jan 2017 Index .82

Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook Last Year (Jan 2017)

58

1% 1% 24% 49% 24% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Much Worse Worse About Same Better Much Better

Jan 2018 Index .79

Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook This Year (Jan 2018)

59

.58 .56 .77 .84 .77 .82 .83 .74 .82 .79 .40 .53 .65 .78 .90 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Index Value

Q#1: Overall Economic Outlook 2009-2018

Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

60

Q#2: Employment Outlook Last Year (Jan 2017)

Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

0% 7% 45% 41% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Major Cutback # Emp Slight Cutback # Emp Remain Same Slight Increase # Emp Major Increase # Emp

Jan 2017 Index .69

61

Q#2: Employment Outlook This Year (Jan 2018)

Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

0% 3% 58% 38% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Major Cutback # Emp Slight Cutback # Emp Remain Same Slight Increase # Emp Major Increase # Emp

Jan 2018 Index .67

62

.63 .65 .70 .74 .72 .75 .73 .71 .69 .67 .50 .60 .70 .80 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Index Value

Q#2: Employment Outlook 2009-2018

Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

63

Q#3: Intentions Concerning Employee Compensation This Year (Jan 2017)

Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

0% 5% 28% 64% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Jan 2017 Index .73

64

Q#3: Intentions Concerning Employee Compensation This Year (Jan 2018)

Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

0% 0% 36% 63% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Jan 2018 Index .73

65

.61 .73 .61 .70 .65 .74 .80 .82 .73 .73 .50 .60 .70 .80 .90 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Index Value

Q#3: Intentions Concerning Employee Compensation 2009-2018

Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

0% 5% 26% 55% 14% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

66

Q#4: Demand for Products/Services Last Year (Jan 2017)

Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

Jan 2017 Index .76

67

Q#4: Demand for Products/Services This Year (Jan 2018)

Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

1% 1% 34% 44% 20% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Jan 2018 Index .76

68

.83 .55 .75 .78 .77 .80 .83 .76 .76 .76 .45 .60 .75 .90 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Index Value

Q#4: Demand for Products/Services 2009-2018

Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

Q#5: New Product Offerings Last Year (Jan 2017)

Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

69

0% 2% 43% 41% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Jan 2017 Index .74

Q#5: New Product Offerings This Year (Jan 2018)

Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

70

0% 1% 48% 42% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Jan 2018 Index .71

.69 .65 .69 .71 .71 .76 .80 .81 .74 .71 .40 .53 .65 .78 .90 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Index Value

Q#5: New Product Offerings 2009-2018

71

Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

Q#6: Intention to Change Number of Outlets Last Year (Jan 2017)

72

Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

0% 1% 81% 16% 2% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Jan 2017 Index .63

Q#6: Intention to Change Number of Outlets This Year (Jan 2018)

73

Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

0% 1% 83% 16% 0% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Jan 2018 Index .63

.56 .48 .41 .47 .48 .52 .68 .69 .64 .63 .40 .50 .60 .70 .80 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Index Value

Q#6: Intention to Change Number of Outlets 2009-2018

74

Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

Q#7: Intentions Concerning Expenditures on Advertising Last Year (Jan 2017)

75

Source: 2017 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

1% 7% 48% 36% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Jan 2017 Index .68

Q#7: Intentions Concerning Expenditures on Advertising This Year (Jan 2018)

76

Source: 2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

1% 3% 46% 44% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Major Decrease Slight Decrease Remain Same Slight Increase Major Increase

Jan 2018 Index .70

.54 .57 .58 .62 .64 .61 .68 .69 .68 .70 .40 .50 .60 .70 .80 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Index Value

Q#7: Intentions Concerning Expenditures on Advertising 2009-2018

77

Source: 2009-2018 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey

78

Membership Survey: Largest Response Category by % 2018

• Overall Outlook– Slightly Better 49%
• Number of Employees – No Change 58%
• Employee Pay – Slight Increase 63%
• Demand for Products – Slightly Better 44%
• New Products – No Change 48%
• Number of Outlets – No Change 83%
• Advertising Spending – No Change 46%

Population Trends Calhoun County 2005-2016 in Thousands

112 113 113 113 114 119 118 117 117 116 116 115 110 112 114 116 118 120 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 In Thousands

79

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2015 - 115,620 2016 - 114,611

GDP % Change from Preceding Year Calhoun County & State of Alabama 2007 - 2016

7.1% 2.5%

• 3.4%

3.9%

• 1.3% -1.1%
• 3.5%

1.1% 0.7% 2.1% 3.3% 1.6% -2.5% 3.8% 3.4% 2.9% 2.4% 1.9% 3.3% 2.6%

• 6%
• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Calhoun Alabama

80

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Current $

Labor Force Calhoun County 2008-2017 in Thousands

51.9 49.0 49.1 48.0 47.5 46.2 46.7 46.4 46.3 45.5 45 47 49 51 53 55 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 In Thousands

81

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

• 1.73% 2016-2017

Labor Force Calhoun County Jan – Dec 2017 in Thousands

45.6 45.8 45.8 45.7 45.5 45.7 45.7 45.3 45.1 45.5 45.5 45.2 45.0 45.3 45.5 45.8 46.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec In Thousands

82

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

• 403 for 12

Months

83

Employment for Calhoun County 2008-2017 in Thousands

50.3 47.4 46.5 46.1 45.4 43.9 43.7 43.1 43.3 43.1 42 45 47 50 52 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 In Thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

• .46% 2016-2017

Employment Calhoun County Jan – Dec 2017 in Thousands

42.2 42.7 43.1 43.4 43.3 43.0 43.2 43.1 43.4 43.7 43.7 43.5 42.0 42.5 43.0 43.5 44.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec In Thousands

84

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

+1291 for 12 Months

Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County 2008-2017

85

5.1% 9.9% 9.8% 9.2% 8.0% 7.2% 7.2% 6.9% 6.6% 5.2% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 % Unemployed

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Calhoun County vs Alabama 2017

86

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

7.5% 6.7% 6.0% 5.0% 4.8% 5.9% 5.5% 4.8% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 6.8% 6.1% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 5.2% 4.9% 4.3% 3.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 2% 4% 6% 8% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % Unemployed Calhoun AL

Not Seasonally Adjusted

87

Unemployment Rate

6.1% and Below 6.2% - 7.4% 7.5% and Above

Source: Alabama Department of Labor

6.6%

Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2016 State Ave – 5.9%

Not Seasonally Adjusted

88

Unemployment Rate

6.5% and Below 6.6% - 7.9% 8.0% and Above

Source: Alabama Department of Labor

3.9%

Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2017 State Ave – 3.5%

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Employment State Peak to Now % Change AL MSAs Jan 07- Dec 17

0%

• 18%

18%

• 1%
• 4%
• 8%
• 3%
• 3%

10%

• 1%

1% 14%

• 20%
• 10%

0% 10% 20% AL Ann Aub Bham Deca Doth Flor Gads Hunt Mob Mont Tusc

89

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment % Change AL & AL MSAs Dec 16- Dec 17

1.8% 2.0% 4.0% 0.9% 2.6% 0.2% 1.1% 2.4% 3.3% 0.9% 1.4% 2.4% 0% 3% 5% AL Ann Aub Bham Deca Doth Flor Gads Hunt Mob Mont Tusc

90

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Hourly Earnings Private Sector Calhoun County & State of Alabama 2009-2017

$19.68 $19.86 $20.14 $20.21 $20.18 $20.73 $21.02 $21.85 $22.56 $18.59 $17.48 $16.22 $15.31 $16.34 $18.23 $18.16 $17.56 $17.05 $12 $15 $18 $21 $24 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Alabama Calhoun

91

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

95% 76%

Average Hourly Earnings Private Sector Calhoun County & State of Alabama Jan – Dec 2017

22.5 22.3 22.2 22.8 22.5 22.2 22.6 22.5 22.9 23.0 22.8 23.0 17.2 17.0 17.0 16.9 17.0 16.7 17.2 17.0 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.4 $13 $16 $19 $22 $25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Alabama Calhoun

92

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

76% State Average

Per Capita Personal Income Calhoun County & State Of Alabama 2007 – 2016 in $ Thousands

93

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

$29.9 $30.7 $30.1 $30.7 $31.5 $31.7 $31.4 $32.4 $33.5 $34.4 $32.6 $33.4 $32.7 $33.7 $34.7 $35.5 $35.8 $36.9 $38.2 $38.9 $25 $30 $35 $40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thousands Calhoun Alabama

92% 88%

State Sales Tax Collections Calhoun County FY 09-10 – FY 16-17 in $ Millions

$21.40 $25.24 $28.00 $29.12 $31.19 $31.02 $30.50 $31.34 $20 $23 $25 $28 $30 $33 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 In $ Millions

94

Source: AL Dept of Revenue

+2.72% Fiscal Yr

State Use Tax Collections Calhoun County FY 09-10 – FY 16-17 in $ Millions

$1.10 $1.08 $1.08 $0.93 $1.19 $1.12 $0.84 $1.27 $0.7 $0.9 $1.1 $1.3 $1.5 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 In $ Millions

95

Source: AL Dept of Revenue

+50.6% Fiscal Yr

Simplified Sellers Use Tax Allocations Calhoun County FY 2016-2017

Calhoun County $324,741 52% Anniston $104,702 17% Oxford $96,735 15% Jacksonville $56,859 9% Piedmont $22,104 4% Weaver $13,766 2% Ohatchee $5,301 1%

96

Source: AL Dept of Revenue

$624,210 FY 16-17

State Lodging Tax Collections from Calhoun County FY09-10 – FY16-17 in $ Thousands

$778.4 $824.5 $771.6 $847.1 $883.6 $915.1 $1,022.8 $1,141.0 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 In $ Thousands

97

Source: AL Dept of Revenue

+11.56% Fiscal Yr

Tourism Economic Impact State of Alabama 2016

• Est over 25.8 Million visitors 2016
• Spending $13.8 Billion in 2016
• Represent 6.8% of State GDP
• Est 179,644 jobs (9.1% of non agricultural)
• Generated $836 Million State/Local Tax Revenues

98

Source: Alabama Tourism Department, 2016

Tourism Expenditures in AL 2006-2016 in $ Billions

$8.5 $9.3 $9.6 $9.3 $9.1 $10.2 $10.7 $11.0 $11.8 $12.7 $13.4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Billions

99

Source: Alabama Tourism Department, 2015

Up Avg of 5.81%/Yr Last 10 yrs

Tourism Impact in Calhoun County Jobs & Earnings 14-16

891 933 994 800 850 900 950 1,000 14 15 16 Jobs $21.8 $23.4 $25.1 $20 $23 $25 $28 14 15 16 Earnings in Millions

100

Source: Alabama Tourism Department, 2015

Up 6.5% 15-16 Up 7.3% 15-16

101

Housing Statistics Calhoun County 2016 vs 2017 2016 2017

% Change

Average Price

$134,558 $138,034 +2.6%

Avg Days on Market

134 112

• 16.3%

Total Homes Sold

1,510 1,646 +9.00%

Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

102

114 109 88 76 81 80 82 90 102 116 126 138 65 80 95 110 125 140 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Home Sales/Month

Average Number of Home Sales Per Month Calhoun County 2006-2017

Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

101.88 Avg - -

Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY09-10 – FY16-17 Anniston in $ Millions

$17.1 $17.5 $19.0 $21.2 $20.8 $20.6 $22.0 $22.3 $16 $18 $20 $22 $24 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 In $ Millions

103

Source: City of Anniston * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective April 2012 (25%)

+1.35% FY 16-17

* *

Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct - Dec 2016 vs Oct – Dec 2017 Anniston in $ Millions

104

Source: City of Anniston

$5.87 $5.83 $4.0 $4.5 $5.0 $5.5 $6.0 Oct16-Dec16 Oct17-Dec17 In $ Millions

• .7% O-D 16vs17

Sales & Use Tax Collected by AL Annual Total FY09-10 – FY16-17 Oxford in $ Millions

$24.3 $24.5 $25.3 $25.5 $26.6 $28.4 $31.0 $31.5 $18 $21 $23 $26 $28 $31 $33 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 In $ Millions

105

+1.6% FY 16-17

Source: AL Dept of Revenue

Sales & Use Tax Oct - Dec 2016 vs Oct – Dec 2017 Oxford in $ Millions

$7.49 $7.50 $6.0 $6.5 $7.0 $7.5 Oct16-Dec16 Oct17-Dec17 In $ Millions

106

Source: City of Oxford

+.16% O-D 16vs17

Sales & Use Tax Annual Total FY09-10 – FY16-17 Jacksonville in $ Millions

$5.3 $5.5 $6.5 $6.8 $7.0 $7.0 $7.3 $7.3 $4.5 $5.5 $6.5 $7.5 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 In $ Millions

107

Source: City of Jacksonville

+.46% FY 16-17

Sales & Use Tax FYTD Oct - Dec 2016 vs 2017 Jacksonville in $ Millions

$1.919 $1.937 $1.80 $1.90 $2.00 Oct16-Dec16 Oct17-Dec17 In $Millions

108

+0.9% O-D 16vs17

Source: City of Jacksonville

Sales & Use Tax Annual Total FY09-10 - FY16-17 Ohatchee in $ Thousands

$444 $534 $489 $550 $545 $571 $549 $618 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 In $ Thousands

109

Source: City of Ohatchee

+12.6% FY 16-17

Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY09-10 – FY16-17 Piedmont in $ Millions

$1.37 $1.36 $1.45 $1.46 $1.46 $1.75 $1.89 $1.91 $1.3 $1.4 $1.5 $1.6 $1.7 $1.8 $1.9 $2.0 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 In $ Millions

110

Source: City of Piedmont

+.97% FY 16-17 *

*1% tax increase Jan 1, 2015

*

Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct - Dec 2016 vs Oct – Dec 2017 Piedmont in $ Thousands

$458 $397 $350 $400 $450 $500 Oct16-Dec16 Oct17-Dec17 In $ Thousands

111

Source: City of Piedmont

• 13.35% O-D 16vs17

Sales, Use Tax Annual Total FY09-10 – FY16-17 Weaver in $ Thousands

$245 $234 $289 $343 $444 $571 $555 $594 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 In $ Thousands

112

Source: City of Weaver

+7.07% FY 16-17

Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct - Dec 2016 vs Oct – Dec 2017 Weaver in $ Thousands

$144.52 $175.74 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 Oct16-Dec16 Oct17-Dec17 In $ Thousands

113

Source: City of Weaver

+21% O-D 16vs17

114

Calhoun County: Economic Summary

• Membership Survey- Positive “Slightly Better”
• Population- Estimated Down Slightly
• Employment- +1291 Jan-Dec 2017 (+626 Jan-Dec 2016)
• Unemployment- Dec 17 – 3.5% (Dec 16 – 6.6%)
• Municipal Revenues- Up FY 16-17; Mixed to Flat FYTD 17-18
• Housing Market- Up 9.00% Total Homes Sold
• Tourism Revenues/Employment – Up; Lodging Taxes +11.56%

New & Expanding Industries 2017

Near Atlanta, Near Birmingham, Near Perfect

Calhoun County Economic Development Council

115

• 40 new jobs
• $4.5 million

investment

116

Vehicle Innovation Center $25 million investment

117

• $250,000 investment
• 25 new jobs

STRYKER

118

$5 Million Expansion

119

• 150 new jobs!

120

$5.4 million Investment

121

Advantage Site Designation Mass Grading and New Entrance Oxford West Industrial Park

122

Five Years $610 million in new investment Over 2000 new jobs! Calhoun County Economic Development Council

Industrial Parks

123

Near Atlanta, Near Birmingham, Near Perfect

Calhoun County Economic Development Council

124

125

Calhoun County: Economic Summary

• Membership Survey- Positive “Slightly Better”
• Population- Estimated Down Slightly
• Employment- +1291 Jan-Dec 2017 (+626 Jan-Dec 2016)
• Unemployment- Dec 17 – 3.5% (Dec 16 – 6.6%)
• Municipal Revenues- Up FY 16-17; Mixed to Flat FYTD 17-18
• Housing Market- Up 9% Total Homes Sold
• Tourism Revenues/Employment – Up; Lodging Taxes +11.6%