2017 Plan Year Results Presentation by the PAs to the EEAC July 31, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2017 Plan Year Results Presentation by the PAs to the EEAC July 31, 2017

2017 Plan Year Statewide Overview • Electric PAs achieved 108% of Annual Savings annual savings goal • Gas PAs achieved 97% of annual kWh/Therms savings goal • Electric PAs achieved 100% of total Benefits planned benefits • Gas PAs achieved 99% of total $ planned benefits • Both electric and gas came in under Spend budget, • electric at 86% $ • gas at 92% 2

Progress to Term Goals Year 2 of 3 Actuals as a Percent of Term 100% Electric Gas 90% 80% 73% 70% 68% 67% 70% 64% 64% 61% 57% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Spend Annual Savings Lifetime Savings Total Benefits 3

Electric Savings Forward Look 4

Electric Savings Trends Net Annual MWh Net Lifetime MWh 1,600,000 20,000,000 18,000,000 1,400,000 16,000,000 1,200,000 14,000,000 1,000,000 12,000,000 800,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 600,000 6,000,000 400,000 4,000,000 200,000 2,000,000 - - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 5

Impact of Residential Lighting on Portfolio Net Annual MWh Commercial & Industrial Income-Eligible Other Residential Residential Upstream Lighting 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 6

Dual Challenges Moving Forward  Production Declines as Sockets Saturate  Residential lighting production was at highest levels ever in 2016 and 2017; production drops already seen in first half of 2018, expected to continue  C&I screw-in potential expected to drop to near-zero next term  Evaluation Impacts Reducing Claimable Savings  Residential Upstream NTG values for 2019-2021 are ~half the values for 2016-2018  C&I NTG values are also dropping 7

What would 2017 Production look like in 2019?  Application of 2019 Net Annual MWh NTG values 1,600,000 substantially reduces the savings that the 1,400,000 PAs can claim, even Lighting though underlying 1,200,000 Behavior amount of gross CHP HVAC production is the 1,000,000 Process same. Motors & Drives 800,000 Refrigeration  Drops % of sales by Envelope half a percent. 600,000 Compressed Air Hot Water Codes 400,000 Other Food Service 200,000 - 2017 Actuals 2017 with 2019 Evals 8

Gas Savings Forward Look 9

Gas Savings Trends Net Annual Therms Net Annual Therms Net Lifetime Therms 35,000,000 450,000,000 400,000,000 30,000,000 350,000,000 25,000,000 300,000,000 20,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 15,000,000 150,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 5,000,000 50,000,000 - - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10

Gas Challenges Moving Forward  Evaluation results creating significant declines in claimable savings for major measures  C&I upstream water heaters NTG reduced from 85% to 31-60%  More limited pool of savings for gas; fewer types of equipment available to be upgraded means fewer chances to engage with customers  Continued low gas prices depress customer demand for programs 11

Thank you

Electric Sector Progress to Term Goals Actuals as a Percent of Term Goal (66% Complete) Residential Low-Income Commercial & Industrial Total 100% 90% 86% 81% 79% 80% 75% 74% 73% 73% 73% 70% 70% 68% 68% 68% 67% 70% 64% 60% 60% 59% 57% 60% 54% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Expenditure Summer kW Annual MWh Lifetime MWh Total Benefits 13

Gas Sector Progress to Term Goals Actuals as a Percent of Term Goal 100% Residential Low-Income Commercial & Industrial Total 90% 80% 76% 70% 67% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 64% 64% 64% 64% 63% 63% 63% 61% 59% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Expenditure Annual Therms Lifetime Therms Total Benefits 14