2017 Plan Year Results Presentation by the PAs to the EEAC July 31, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2017 Plan Year Results

Presentation by the PAs to the EEAC July 31, 2017

2017 Plan Year Statewide Overview

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• Electric PAs achieved 108% of

annual savings goal

• Gas PAs achieved 97% of annual

savings goal

Annual Savings kWh/Therms

• Electric PAs achieved 100% of total

planned benefits

• Gas PAs achieved 99% of total

planned benefits

Benefits $

• Both electric and gas came in under

budget,

• electric at 86%
• gas at 92%

Spend $

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Progress to Term Goals

Year 2 of 3

57% 73% 70% 68% 61% 64% 64% 67% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total Spend Annual Savings Lifetime Savings Total Benefits

Actuals as a Percent of Term

Electric Gas

Electric Savings Forward Look

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Electric Savings Trends

• 2,000,000

4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000

• 200,000

400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net Annual MWh Net Lifetime MWh

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Impact of Residential Lighting on Portfolio

• 200,000

400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Net Annual MWh

Commercial & Industrial Income-Eligible Other Residential Residential Upstream Lighting

• Production Declines as Sockets Saturate
• Residential lighting production was at highest levels

ever in 2016 and 2017; production drops already seen in first half of 2018, expected to continue

• C&I screw-in potential expected to drop to near-zero

next term

• Evaluation Impacts Reducing Claimable Savings
• Residential Upstream NTG values for 2019-2021 are

~half the values for 2016-2018

• C&I NTG values are also dropping

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Dual Challenges Moving Forward

• 200,000

400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 2017 Actuals 2017 with 2019 Evals

Net Annual MWh

Lighting Behavior CHP HVAC Process Motors & Drives Refrigeration Envelope Compressed Air Hot Water Codes Other Food Service

• Application of 2019

NTG values substantially reduces the savings that the PAs can claim, even though underlying amount of gross production is the same.

• Drops % of sales by

half a percent.

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What would 2017 Production look like in 2019?

Gas Savings Forward Look

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Gas Savings Trends

• 50,000,000

100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000 400,000,000 450,000,000

• 5,000,000

10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Net Annual Therms

Net Annual Therms Net Lifetime Therms

• Evaluation results creating significant declines in

claimable savings for major measures

• C&I upstream water heaters NTG reduced from 85%

to 31-60%

• More limited pool of savings for gas; fewer types
• f equipment available to be upgraded means

fewer chances to engage with customers

• Continued low gas prices depress customer

demand for programs

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Gas Challenges Moving Forward

Thank you

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Electric Sector Progress to Term Goals

54% 86% 81% 64% 60% 60% 68% 70% 73% 68% 59% 75% 67% 73% 74% 57% 79% 73% 70% 68% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Expenditure Summer kW Annual MWh Lifetime MWh Total Benefits

Actuals as a Percent of Term Goal (66% Complete)

Residential Low-Income Commercial & Industrial Total

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Gas Sector Progress to Term Goals

59% 65% 64% 65% 63% 65% 65% 76% 64% 63% 63% 65% 61% 64% 64% 67% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Expenditure Annual Therms Lifetime Therms Total Benefits

Actuals as a Percent of Term Goal

Residential Low-Income Commercial & Industrial Total