2017 HA 2017 HALF Y YEAR R RESULT LTS 25 JULY 2017 Strong - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2017 HA 2017 HALF Y YEAR R RESULT LTS 25 JULY 2017 Strong - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2017 HA 2017 HALF Y YEAR R RESULT LTS 25 JULY 2017 Strong financial results and robust balance sheet Driving performance through operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation High quality pipeline of growth
- Strong financial results and robust balance sheet
- Driving performance through operational
excellence and disciplined capital allocation
- High quality pipeline of growth opportunities
Optim imis istic ic o
- utlo
look
B+S, Frankfurt
2
- Strong financial results and robust balance sheet
- Driving performance through operational
excellence and disciplined capital allocation
- High quality pipeline of growth opportunities
Optim imis istic ic o
- utlo
look
B+S, Frankfurt
3
Strong financial results and robust balance sheet
- Strong earnings growth
– Benefits of APP acquisition – Asset management gains capturing rent reversion – Development completions
+23% 23%
Adjusted pre-tax profit
+3. 3.2% 2%
Adjusted EPS, 9.7p
+3. 3.9% 9%
Like-for-like net rental income growth
- Robust balance sheet
– 4.9% portfolio value growth – £1.1 billion of financing, including rights issue and inaugural US private placement
+5. 5.4% 4%
EPRA NAV per share 504p
29% 29%
Loan to Value ratio (FY 2016: 33%)
- 2017 interim dividend increased by 5%
5. 5.25p 25p
Dividend per share (2016: 5.0p)
4
H1 2016 net rental income Disposals Acquisitions Like-for-like net rental income Completed developments Space taken back for development Other (incl surrender premiums) Currency translation H1 2017 net rental income JVs at share £32.3m JVs at share £27.3m Group £103.4m Group £88.6m £(11.2)m £10.6m £8.6m £(0.8)m £4.4m £(5.9)m £4.1m £120.9m £130.7m
3.9% growth in like-for-like net rental income
Proportionally consolidated net rental income (excluding joint venture fees1), H1 2016-17, £ million
Mainly 2016 disposals and disposals to part-fund APP acquisition Group: up: +3. 3.9% 9% UK: +5.9% CE: 0.0% Vacancy stable at 5.5% APP acquisition
5
1 Net property rental income less administrative expenses, net interest expenses and taxation
23% increase in Adjusted PBT
Adjusted income statement
H1 2017 1 2017 £m H1 2016 1 2016 £m Gross rental income 127.3 110.7 Property operating expenses (23.9) (22.1) Net r rent ntal i inc ncome 103. 103.4 88. 88.6 Share of joint ventures’ adjusted profit1 22.1 25.5 Joint venture fee income 16.5 9.1 Administration expenses (17.5) (15.5) Adj djus usted o d ope perating ng pr profit 124. 124.5 107. 107.7 Net finance costs (33.3) (33.5) Adj djus usted pr d profit be before tax 91. 91.2 74. 74.2 Tax on adjusted profit 0.7% 1.1%
- APP performance fee generated non-
recurring profit of £3.2m
- FY 2017 JV fee income expected to
be c£24m
- On-going JV fee income c£16m pa
- Cost ratio of 22.9%
(H1 2016: 23.2%)
- 20.4% excl share based payments
(H1 2016: 21.5%)
- H1 2017 adjusted EPS based on
average 934m shares
- FY adjusted EPS expected to be
based on c966m shares (before impact of scrip dividend)
6
31 December 2016 H1 2017 Adjusted EPS 2016 Final Dividend Realised and unrealised gains Exchange rate and
- ther
Net impact of financing activity 30 June 2017
5.4% increase in EPRA NAV
Components of EPRA net asset value change, 31 December 2016 to 30 June 2017 (11)p 10p 33p 2p 504p 478p
(after applying bonus adjustment factor of 1.046 to reported 500p)
(8)p
7
£1.1bn of new financing raised to strengthen balance sheet further
Rights I Issue £557m net proceeds
166m new shares 1.046 bonus adjustment factor
Priv ivate P e Pla lacem emen ent Issue €650m of new debt
11yr average duration 1.9% average coupon To be drawn in August 2017
£216m cash consideration for APP
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 17 Average cost of debt LTV ratio LTV ratio Ave cost of debt
LTV ratio and average cost of debt
(incl share of JVs, 2012-H1 2017)
£341m for future development capex
- 75% allocated to identified projects
Repay £200m 2018 bonds early
- 5.5% coupon bonds repaid in June
Repay £320m APP secured debt
- 2.5% average cost, repaid in July
8
1 Based on gross debt, excluding commitment fees and amortised costs 2 Pro forma for repayment of APP secured debt and drawing of US private placement debt 3 Marginal borrowing costs after commitment fee
Including joint ventures at share 30 J 30 June 2017 2017 31 D 31 December 2016 2016 Weighted average cost of debt1 (%) 3.12 3.4 Average maturity of debt (years) 7.82 6.2 Fixed rate debt as proportion of net debt (%) 70 80 Net borrowings (£m) 2,086 2,091 LTV ratio (%) 29 33
- £644m of cash and available facilities
- Attractive marginal cost of Group
bank borrowings of c1.4% (UK) and 1.1% (CE)3
- H1 2017: £215m capex on
development and infrastructure
- FY 2017: £350m+ estimated
development capex (and further c£50m of infrastructure capex)
Robust financial position
Balance sheet and gearing metrics (look-through basis), 31 December 2016 – 30 June 2017
9
Strong financial results and robust balance sheet
- Strong earnings growth
- Robust balance sheet
- 2017 interim dividend increased by 5%
Geodis, Paris
10
- Strong financial results and robust balance sheet
- Driving performance through operational
excellence and disciplined capital allocation
- High quality pipeline of growth opportunities
Optim imis istic ic o
- utlo
look
B+S, Frankfurt
11
UK logistics supply continues to fall short of demand
(UK logistics take up and average availability; source: JLL)
Favourable market conditions
3.4% 1.6% 1.0% 2.4% 0.6% 3.4% 2.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Poland Germany France UK Italy Historic (2013-16) Forecast (2017-18)
Economic growth outlook is supportive
(GDP average annual growth rates 2013-18; source: OECD)
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Italy Poland Europe ave France Germany UK 2017 2016 2015
Online sales continue to gain market share
(Online purchases as share of total retail sales; source: Centre for Retail Research)
Supply of speculative development remains low
(Speculative UK big box warehouse completions; source: JLL)
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 In dvpt Completions, m sq m 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17
- No. of years’ supply
Take-up / availability, m sq m Average availability Take-up
- No. of years' supply
Take-up for H2 2016 and H1 2017
12
Driving performance: operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation
Leasing ng and A nd Asset Mana nage gement nt Dis Disposals als Acqui quisitions ns
- £28m contracted headline rent,
+28% from H1 2016
- 15% uplift on UK rent reviews
and renewals
- Low vacancy rate of 5.5%, 92%
customer retention
- £550m of asset acquisitions
50% interest in APP portfolio Ave topped-up NIY of 4.2% (5.2% excl Cargo Area)
- £34m of land acquisitions
Primarily land for immediate development in Germany, Italy and Spain
- £207m of asset disposals
Part consideration for APP £150m Non-strategic German light industrial £47m
- Former Northfields industrial estate
sold to residential developer
- Average yield of 4.4% (3.1% incl
land) Dev evel elopmen ents
- 79,000 sq m new space completed:
£5m of potential rent, 91% secured
- £18m new pre-lets signed; £3m
potential from new speculative development starts
- 920,000 sq m under construction
Amazon, Munich APP portfolio Nelson Trade Park Completed development Acquired Sold
13
£0m £50m £100m £150m £200m £250m £300m £350m £400m Total Greater London Thames Valley & National Logistics Northern Europe Southern Europe Central Europe
+5.7% +5.2% 2.3% +3.7% +0.1% +4.6%
1 Percentage change relates to completed properties, including JVs at share. 2 Includes big box warehouses part of the Greater London portfolio
ERV gr growth 0. 0.8% 8% 0. 0.9% 9% 0. 0.9% 9% 0. 0.6% 6% 0. 0.6% 6% 0. 0.0% 0% UK: 0. 0.9% 9% Cont ntine nent ntal Eur urope pe: 0 0.4%
UK UK +5. 5.5% 5% Slough Trading Estate +7.1% Park Royal +8.8% Heathrow +3.0% UK big box logistics2 +1.9% Cont ntine nent ntal E Eur urope pe +2. 2.3% 3% SELP +1.1% SEGRO wholly-owned +4.1%
Portfolio value change driven by improving yields and asset management1
14
- Strong financial results and robust balance sheet
- Driving performance through operational
excellence and disciplined capital allocation
- High quality pipeline of growth opportunities
Optim imis istic ic o
- utlo
look
B+S, Frankfurt
15
High quality pipeline of growth opportunities
- Income growth potential through active
asset management of existing portfolio
- Significant growth from current
development pipeline
- Optionality over future development
through land bank and options
Azymut, Strykow
16
Growth from the existing portfolio
Reversion capture Index-linked uplifts Further vacancy reduction
- £2.7m potential reversion from general UK rent reviews in H2
2017 (£13m in total)
- £6.2m (55%) of Heathrow Cargo Area 2019 peppercorn rent
reversions secured or under negotiation (£11m in total)
- c40% of portfolio (c£140m of headline rent) contains indexation
provisions
- Almost all Continental Europe leases
- c10% of UK leases (most with cap and collar)
- c£5.5m (25%) of vacancy is in five UK buildings
- 2 big box warehouses in Midlands
- 3 urban warehouses in London
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2017 Speculative Pre-let Let at 30 June 2017
Rapid leasing of speculative space
(Letting status of development completions in 2012-17, %) 17
Current development pipeline: £46m of rent, 40 projects, 1m sq m of space
Yoox pre-let, Milan FedEx pre-let, Paris SEGRO Park Rainham, East London Martorelles, Barcelona Amazon pre-let, Rome Premier Inn, Slough Trading Estate
18
Significant development opportunities within SEGRO’s control
Cur urrent nt de developm pment nt pi pipe peline ne
- 920,400 sq m of space
- Current book value £431m; £231m
£231m c cost to c
- com
- mplete
- £46m potential gross rent; £31m (68%)
secured through pre-lets
- Projected 7.7% yield on total cost
Near Near term term dev devel elopmen
- pment pr
proj
- jects
ects
- 243,000 sq m of space
- £146m po
potent ntial al cape apex
- £14m potential gross rent
- 63% rent related to potential pre-lets
- Projected 7.6% yield on total cost
Fut utur ure de developm pment nt pi pipe peline ne1
- 2.3m sq m of space
- c£1.
£1.1b 1bn po potent ntial al c cape apex
- £113m potential gross rent
- Projected c8% yield on total cost
Land unde nd under opt ption
- 750,000 sq m of space
- c£50m potential gross rent
- Expected blended yield of c7% on total
cost, including land
1 Excludes near-term projects and potential developments on land held under option.
1 2 3 4
Capi pital de depl ployment nt ahe head o d of expe pectations ns at t the he time o
- f 2016 e
equi quity pl placing a ng and 2 nd 2017 r right ghts i issue ue
19
318 25 46 14 384 388.8 Annualised gross cash passing rent1, £ million
(as at 30 June 2017)
1 Including JVs at share 2 Near-term development opportunities include pre-let agreements subject to final conditions such as planning permission, and speculative developments subject to final approval, which are expected to commence within the next 12 months 3 Total rent potential of £127m from near-term development opportunities and Future pipeline 4 Estimated. Excludes rent from development projects identified for sale on completion and from projects identified as “Near-term opportunities”
41
Passing rent at 30 Jun 17 Rent in rent-free
Reversion and vacant space
Current development pipeline (68% let) Near-term development
- pportunities2,3
(63% pre-lets) Future pipeline2 Land held under
- ption
Total Potential
Substantial opportunity to grow rental income
1134 504 £126m potential from current activity £163m from land bank and land options 607
20
- Supply-demand dynamics remain
supportive
- Investor demand for warehouses remains
strong
- Future earnings prospects underpinned by
asset management and development
Optim imis istic ic o
- utlo
look
B+S, Frankfurt
Outlook
21
2017 HALF YEAR RESULTS
Q& Q&A
APPE PPENDIX IX I
PORTFOLIO AND FINANCIAL DATA
30 J 30 June 2017 2017 30 J 30 June 2016 2016 31 D 31 December 2016 2016 £m £p per share £m £p per share2 £m £p per share2 EPRA1 Earnings 90.5 9.7 73.4 9.4 (9.8) 152.6 18.8 (19.7) EPRA NAV 5,053.5 504 3,593.8 454 (475) 4,162.1 478 (500) EPRA NNNAV 4,728.8 472 3,285.5 415 (435) 3,822.6 439 (459) EPRA net initial yield 4.7% 4.9% 4.8% EPRA topped-up net initial yield 5.0% 5.4% 5.3% EPRA vacancy rate 5.5% 4.8% 5.7% EPRA1 cost ratio (including vacant property costs) 22.9% 23.2% 23.0% EPRA1 cost ratio (excluding vacant property costs) 20.7% 20.4% 20.8%
1 For the periods presented, EPRA EPS is the same as Adjusted EPS. 2 Per share metrics in parentheses are as reported before application of the rights issue bonus adjustment factor.
EPRA performance measures
24
H1 2017 1 2017 H1 2016 1 2016 Group £m JVs £m Total £m Group £m JVs £m Total £m Gross rental income 127.3 37.3 164.6 110.7 38.3 149.0 Property operating expenses (23.9) (10.0) (33.9) (22.1) (6.0) (28.1) Net r rent ntal i inc ncome 103. 103.4 27. 27.3 130. 130.7 88. 88.6 32. 32.3 120. 120.9 JV management fee income 16.5 – 16.5 9.1 – 9.1 Administration expenses (17.5) (0.4) (17.9) (15.5) (0.1) (15.6) Adj djus usted o d ope perating ng pr profit 102. 102.4 26. 26.9 129. 129.3 82. 82.2 32. 32.2 114. 114.4 Net finance costs (33.3) (3.4) (36.7) (33.5) (6.2) (39.7) Adj djus usted pr d profit be before tax 69. 69.1 23. 23.5 92. 92.6 48. 48.7 26. 26.0 74. 74.7 Tax and non-controlling interests (0.7) (1.4) (2.1) (0.8) (0.5) (1.3) Adj djus usted pr d profit after tax 68. 68.4 22. 22.1 90. 90.5 47. 47.9 25. 25.5 73. 73.4
Adjusted income statement (JVs proportionally consolidated)
25
30 J 30 June 2017 2017 31 D 31 December 2016 2016 Group £m JVs £m Total £m Group £m JVs £m Total £m Investment properties 6,097.2 1,153.9 7, 7,251. 251.1 4,714.4 1,605.0 6, 6,319. 319.4 Trading properties 25.4 0.5 25. 25.9 25.4 0.6 26. 26.0 To Total pr prope perties 6, 6,122. 122.6 1, 1,154. 154.4 7, 7,277. 277.0 4, 4,739. 739.8 1, 1,605. 605.6 6, 6,345. 345.4 Investment in joint ventures 761.3 (761.3) – 1,066.2 (1,066.2) – Other net liabilities (88.2) (48.5) (136. 136.7) (25.5) (46.8) (72. 72.3) Net debt (1,741.6) (344.6) (2, 2,086. 086.2) (1,598.4) (492.6) (2, 2,091. 091.0) Net as asset valu value1 5, 5,054. 054.1 – 5, 5,054. 054.1 4, 4,182. 182.1 – 4, 4,182. 182.1 EPRA adjustments (0.6) (20.0) EPR EPRA NA NAV 5, 5,053. 053.5 4, 4,162. 162.1
1 After minority interests
Balance sheet (JVs proportionally consolidated)
26
1 Annualised gross rental income (on a cash flow basis) after the expiry of rent-free periods
Group up £m JV JVs £m To Total £m H1 2 2017 ne net r rent ntal i inc ncome 103. 103.4 27. 27.3 130. 130.7 Hal alf year ar impac act of: Disposals since 1 January 2017 (3.9) (4.0) (7.9) — APP fees within JV net rental income – 4.9 4.9 Acquisitions since 1 January 2017 8.7 0.4 9.1 Developments completed and let during H1 2017 1.2 0.4 1.6 One-off items (0.4) – (0.4) Pro f forma H1 2 2017 ne net r rent ntal i inc ncome 109. 109.0 29. 29.0 138. 138.0
Pro forma H1 2017 accounting net rental income
27
1 Total costs include vacant property costs of £3.6m for H1 2017 (H1 2016: £4.2m) 2 Includes JV property management fee income of £9.0m and management fees of £1.0m (H1 2016: £8.2m and £0.6m respectively)
- Incl. joint ventures at share
H1 2017 1 2017 £m H1 2016 1 2016 £m Gross r rent ntal inc ncome (less reimbursed costs) 163.6 148.4 Property operating expenses 23.9 22.1 Administration expenses 17.5 15.5 JV operating expenses 6.1 5.7 JV management fees (10.0) (8.8) To Total c costs1 37. 37.5 34. 34.5 Of which share based payments 4.2 2.6 Total costs excluding share based payments2 33.3 31.9 To Total cost r ratio 22. 22.9% 9% 23. 23.2% 2% Total cost ratio excluding share based payments 20.4% 21.5%
EPRA Cost Ratio
Total cost ratio, 2016-17 (proportionally consolidated)
28
31 December 2016 Long-term lettings Short-term take-backs New developments Acquisitions Disposals Other 30 June 2017
Speculative development1 1.3% Speculative development1 1.6%
0.6% (0.3)%
5.7 .7%
(0.2)% 0.1%
1 Speculative developments completed in preceding two years
Existing standing assets 4.1% Existing standing assets 4.2%
(0.1)%
5.5 .5%
EPRA Vacancy Rate
(0.3)% Vacancy rate reconciliation, 31 December 2016 to 30 June 2017
29
H1 2017 1 2017 H1 2016 1 2016 Group £m JVs £m To Total £m £m Group £m JVs £m To Total £m £m Acquisitions 1,143.6 15.5 1,159.1 65.5 39.8 105.3 Development1 184.0 31.0 215.0 97.1 17.6 114.7 Completed properties2 7.9 2.0 9.9 9.8 2.0 11.8 Other3 5.0 1.6 6.6 10.2 2.1 12.3 TO TOTA TAL 1,340.5 50.1 1,390.6 182.6 61.5 244.1
1 Includes wholly-owned capitalised interest of £2.5 million (H1 2016: £2.4 million) and share of JV capitalised interest of £0.3 million (H1 2016: £0.5 million). 2 Completed properties are those not deemed under development during the year. Incorporates minor refurbishment (not deemed to be directly ERV enhancing), and infrastructure expenditure and major refurbishment and fit-out of existing buildings (which are considered ERV enhancing) 3 Tenant incentives, letting fees and rental guarantees
- Approximately 50% of completed
properties capex is directly linked to generating rents
- c£5m of maintenance capex within
“Completed properties”
EPRA capital expenditure analysis
30
30 J 30 June 2017 2017 £m £m Weight ghted a d average ge cost o
- f gr
gross de debt bt, %1 31 D 31 December 2016 2016 £m £m Weight ghted a d average ge cost o
- f gr
gross de debt bt, %1 Group gross borrowings 1,805 3.5 1,630 3.9 Group cash & equivalents (63) – (32) – Group ne up net bo borrowings ngs 1, 1,742 742 – 1, 1,598 598 – Share of joint venture net borrowings 344 1.4 493 1.7 SEGRO ne net bo borrowings ngs i inc ncludi uding j ng joint nt v vent ntur ures at s sha hare 2, 2,086 086 3. 3.1 2, 2,091 091 3. 3.4 To Total pr prope perties ( (inc ncludi uding ng SEGRO s sha hare o
- f
joint nt v vent ntur ures) 7, 7,277 277 6, 6,345 345 ‘Look-thr hrough ugh’ ’ lo loan an t to valu value rat atio io 29% 29% 33% 33%
1 Figures exclude commitment fees and amortised costs
Look-through loan-to-value ratio
31
Debt maturity profile at 30 June 2017 (pro forma), £m
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 JV undrawn at share SEGRO undrawn JV debt at share SEGRO PP notes SEGRO bonds Debt maturity by type and year, £ millions
(as at 30 June 2017, pro forma for repayment of APP secured debt and drawing of US private placement debt due in August 2017) 32
- €1.14:£1 as at 30 June 2017
- € assets 68% hedged by € liabilities
- €741m (£650m) of residual exposure – 13% of Group NAV
- Illustrative NAV sensitivity vs €1.14:
- + 5% (€1.20) = - c.£31m (-c.3.1p per share)
- 5% (€1.08) = + c.£34m (+c.3.4p per share)
Loan to Value (on look-through basis) at €1.14:£1 is 29%, sensitivity vs €1.14:
- +5% (€1.20) LTV -0.6%-points
- 5% (€1.08) LTV +0.6%-points
- Average rate for 6 months to 30 June 2017 €1.16:£1
- € income 37% hedged by € expenditure (including interest)
- Net € income for the period €37m (£32m) – 35% of Group
- Illustrative annualised net income sensitivity versus €1.16:
- + 5% (€1.22) = –c£1.5m (c0.2p per share)
- 5% (€1.10) = +c1.7m (c0.2p per share)
Balance sheet, £m
30 June 20171
Assets 68% hedged
Euro currency exposure and hedging
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Other euro liabilities Euro currency swaps Euro debt Euro gross assets 10 20 30 40 50 60 Euro income Euro costs Income Statement, £m
6 months to 30 June 2017
Income 37% hedged
1 Pro forma for repayment of APP secured debt (in July 2017) and drawing of US private placement (in August 2017). 33
- €3.9bn AUM at 30 June 2017
(£3.4bn)
- SELP joint venture focuses on big
box logistics assets
- Other European countries comprise:
- The Netherlands, Belgium and Austria
— supported by our platform in Germany
- Italy and Spain — supported by our
platform in France
- Czech Republic and Hungary —
supported by our platform in Poland
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Germany France Poland Other European Assets under management, €m SELP SEGRO wholly-owned 1,207 1,008 810 907
SEGRO Continental Europe assets under management
34
Current development pipeline
Current development pipeline
(as at 30 June 2017)
920, 920,400 400
sq m
£46m £46m
ERV
£31m £31m
rent secured (68%)
£231 £231m
cost to complete
7. 7.7% 7%
Yield on cost
Amazon, Rome
Current development projects, asset type by ERV
(30 June 2017)
Urban warehouses 21% Logistics 60%
Gross rent from development completions, £m
(as at 30 June 2017, including joint ventures at share)
21.4 8.0 2.0 7.9 4.4 2.4 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 H2 2017 H1 2018 H2 2018 H1 2019 Pre-let Speculative 35
All figures include joint ventures at share. 1 Future development pipeline including near-term projects but excluding land under option. 2 Excludes near-term projects and potential developments on land held under option.
Germany 18% UK 41% Italy/Spain 14% Poland 9%
Geographic split of land bank, by potential ERV1
(30 June 2017)
Development land bank
(30 June 2017)
Fut Futur ure pip ipelin line ( (2.3 .3m sq sq m m2)
- £1.1bn estimated development
costs2
- £113m of potential annual
rent2
- 8% estimated yield on TDC1
- 10% estimated yield on new
money1
Future development pipeline
And…l nd…land and he held unde d under opt ption
- 750,000 sq m
- £50m of potential annual rent
- Estimated blended yield of 7%
- n total cost, incl land
Ne Near-term project cts
- 243,000 sq m
- c£14m of rent (63% related to
pre-lets)
- £146m of potential capex
36
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2017 Land bank value, £m Alternative use Future development pipeline Long-term and residual land bank As % of portfolio (right hand scale)
- £39m of land bank subject to conditional sale for
alternative (residential) use
- Additional opportunity from land held under option
Land bank provides optionality and opportunity for growth
37
APPE PPENDIX IX II
MARKET DATA
- 5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17 UK Germany France CEE Rest of Europe 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 European industrial investment volumes
By country, €m
European industrial investment volumes
By quarter, €m
Source: CBRE
European industrial investment volumes
39
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17 Warsaw: 6.0% Paris: 5.0% Dusseldorf: 4.8% London: 4.5% UK 10yr bond: 1.3% Germany 10yr bond: 0.5%
Source: CBRE, Bloomberg (data correct at 30 June 2017)
Prime logistics yields vs 10 year bond yields
40
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2017
- No. of years’ supply
Take-up / availability, m sq m Average availability Take-up Available space as multiple of annual take-up
UK Big Box supply-demand dynamics1
(m sq m)
1 Source: JLL (logistics warehouses >100,000 sq ft, Grade A); take up reflects H2 2016 and H1 2017 2 Source: JLL
Speculative UK Big Box completions2
(m sq m)
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 In dvpt Completions, m sq m Construction Vacancy
Favourable demand-supply conditions: UK supply shortage
Take-up for H2 2016 and H1 2017
41
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 UK Germany France Belgium Neth. Poland Italy Spain Pre-let Speculative Logistics space under construction1
(m sq m)
1 Source: 1Q 2017, JLL 2 Source: CBRE
European industrial and logistics supply dynamics
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17
- No. of years’ supply
Take-up / availability, m sq m Average availability Take-up Available space as multiple of annual take-up
France logistics supply-demand dynamics2
(m sq m)
Take-up for H2 2016 and H1 2017
42
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17 New Second hand Take-up of warehouse space >100,000 sq ft – UK1
(m sq m)
1 Source: JLL 2 Source: CBRE
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H17 0.0 2.0 4.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1Q17 Net demand Lease renewals Take-up of warehouse space >5,000 sq m – France2
(m sq m)
Take-up of warehouse space – Poland1
(m sq m)
European industrial and logistics — take-up statistics
43
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2017 New / Early Marketed Second hand Availability of Grade A warehouse space >100,000 sq ft– UK1
(m sq m)
1 Source: JLL 2 Source: CBRE
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2017 0% 5% 10% 15% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1Q17 Pre-let Speculative Vacancy (RHS) Availability of warehouse space >5,000 sq m – France2
(m sq m)
Warehouse space under construction and vacancy rate – Poland1
(m sq m)
European industrial and logistics — availability statistics
44
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 10yr ave Rolling annual Heathrow Airport cargo volumes
(million metric tonnes)
Source: Heathrow Airport
60 65 70 75 80 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 10yr ave Rolling annual Heathrow Airport passenger volumes
(millions)
Heathrow Airport cargo and passenger volumes
45
This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to SEGRO’s expectations and plans, strategy, management’s objectives, future performance, costs, revenues and other trend information. These statements and forecasts involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend upon circumstances that may occur in the future. There are a number of factors which could cause actual results or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward looking statements and forecasts. The statements have been made with reference to forecast price changes, economic conditions and the current regulatory environment. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast. Past share performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
Forward-looking statements
46