2017 Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Distribution Forecast Working - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2017 Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast

Distribution Forecast Working Group

Mark Palmere May 16, 2018 Transportation Energy Forecasting Unit Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division

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Transportation Demand Cases

▪ Transportation Demand Cases

 High Electricity Demand (High Case)

• Inputs selected to represent high level of electricity demand

 Mid Electricity Demand (Mid Case)  Low Electricity Demand (Low Case)

• Inputs selected to represent low level of electricity demand

▪ Inputs

– Income, population, fuel prices, vehicle attributes

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Cases represent different levels of transportation electricity demand

Plug-in Electric Vehicle Scenarios

PEV SCENARIOS INPUTS Low Mid High Aggressive Bookend PREFERENCES Consumers' PEV Preference Constant at 2017 Level Increase with PEV market growth Increase with PEV market growth Increase with PEV market growth Increase with PEV market growth INCENTIVES Federal Tax Credit Eliminated after 2019 Decreasing starting 2019 Decreasing starting 2019 Constant through 2030 Constant through 2030 State Rebate To 2019 To 2025 To 2025 To 2030 To 2030 HOV Lane Access To 2021 To 2025 To 2025 To 2025 for PHEV / 2030 for BEV To 2025 for PHEV / 2030 for BEV ATTRIBUTES Availability of PEVs (in 2030) PEV models available in 11

• f 15 CEC LDV classes

PEV models available in 11

• f 15 CEC LDV classes

PEV models available in 11

• f 15 CEC LDV classes

PEV models available in 13

• f 15 CEC LDV classes

PEV models available in all CEC LDV classes Vehicle / Battery Price (by 2030) PEV prices based on battery price declining to ~$120/kWh PEV prices based on battery price declining to ~$100/kWh PEV prices based on battery price declining to ~$89/kWh PEV prices based on battery price declining to ~$73/kWh PEV prices reach parity with gasoline vehicles

• Avg. Range (2030)

~230 miles ~230 miles ~270 miles ~270 miles ~270 miles Refuel Time (2030) 15 -21 min 15 -21 min 10-16 min 10-16 min Same as gasoline Time to Station (2030) 7-8 min Same as gasoline Same as gasoline Same as gasoline Same as gasoline by 2025 FORECAST RESULTS PEV STOCK in 2030 2.6 million 3.3 million 3.9 million 5.3 million 5.9 million Cost of State Rebate, 2018-2025 $577 million $4.2 billion $4.6 billion $5.2 billion $5.4 billion Cost of State Rebate Extension, 2026-2030

• $7.1 billion

$8.2 billion

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Attribute Forecasts

Battery Pack Cost Estimates

Largest Component Cost in Electric Vehicles

Projected # of Light-Duty ZEV Models

Mid Case

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BEV Range and Price

▪ Battery costs are falling… ▪ But average price of BEVs rose…

“The average price of EVs rose again in 2016, but this reflects faster growth in more expensive models and does not take account of increases in driving range…reductions in battery costs are translating into longer ranges rather than lower vehicle prices”

• International Energy Agency

▪ TEFU is using a new metric to show relative decline in BEV prices. ▪ CEC Forecast of Avg. BEV Range:

– 2015 forecast: Flat at ~115 miles – 2017 forecast: Rising to 240-280 miles

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Source: www.iea.org/newsroom/energysnapshots/average-ev-price-and-range.html

Transportation Models

Key Inputs & Outputs

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HIGH LOW MID

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cumulative Stock

Millions

Cumulative On-road BEVs, PHEVs, and FCEVs

ZEV and PHEV Stock Continues to Grow

State Rebate Discontinued after 2025 ARB ZEV Mid-term Review Compliance Estimates Source: California Energy Commission, California Air Resources Board 7

Regional Distribution of EVs

Forecasting Zones

▪ California Energy Commission has divided the state into 20 zones when forecasting at the regional level. ▪ Zone lines are drawn in order to distinguish utility coverage. ▪ Larger utilities (SCE, PG&E, LADWP) serve multiple zones.

Regional Distribution of EVs

Calculating Zone-level Population

▪ Transportation energy demand models calculate statewide vehicle stock, by fuel, class, and vintage. ▪ To allocate stock at a regional level, we use data that are predictors of EV penetration rates.

– These are household and per capita income data, which come from Moody’s and the Department of Finance.

▪ Regression equations are used to estimate PEV distribution by forecast zone.

• BEV Stock = f (Households, Per Capita Income)
• PHEV Stock = f (Households, Per Capita Income)

Regional Distribution of EVs

Electricity Consumption Accounting For Travel Differences

▪ Calculate avg. annual VMT by county and year. (Source: ARB’s EMFAC)

– Divide total VMT by forecast of total vehicles in each county.

▪ Calculate “VMT Ratio” for each forecast zone, where

𝑊𝑁𝑈 𝑠𝑏𝑢𝑗𝑝 𝑔𝑨, 𝑢 = 𝑔𝑝𝑠𝑓𝑑𝑏𝑡𝑢 𝑝𝑔 𝑏𝑤𝑕. 𝑊𝑁𝑈

𝑔𝑨, 𝑢

𝑔𝑝𝑠𝑓𝑑𝑏𝑡𝑢 𝑝𝑔 𝑏𝑤𝑕. 𝑡𝑢𝑏𝑢𝑓𝑥𝑗𝑒𝑓 𝑊𝑁𝑈𝑢

▪ Transportation energy demand models calculate state electricity consumption from all EVs. ▪ Convert to electricity consumption by forecast zone multiplying VMT and vehicle ratios by statewide electricity demand.

Regional Distribution of EVs

Calculating Electricity Consumption

▪ Transportation energy demand models calculate state electricity consumption from all EVs. ▪ Convert to electricity consumption by forecast with the following equations:

BEV 𝑓𝑚𝑓𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑗𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑧 𝑔𝑨, 𝐶𝐹𝑊, 𝑢 = 𝑓𝑚𝑓𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑗𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑧𝐷𝐵, 𝐶𝐹𝑊, 𝑢 𝑦 𝐶𝐹𝑊 𝑠𝑏𝑢𝑗𝑝 𝑔𝑨, 𝑢 𝑦 𝑊𝑁𝑈 𝑠𝑏𝑢𝑗𝑝𝑔𝑨, 𝑢 PHEV 𝑓𝑚𝑓𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑗𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑧 𝑔𝑨, 𝑄𝐼𝐹𝑊, 𝑢 = 𝑓𝑚𝑓𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑗𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑧𝐷𝐵, 𝑄𝐼𝐹𝑊, 𝑢 𝑦 𝑄𝐼𝐹𝑊 𝑠𝑏𝑢𝑗𝑝 𝑔𝑨, 𝑢 𝑦 𝑊𝑁𝑈 𝑠𝑏𝑢𝑗𝑝𝑔𝑨, 𝑢 𝑓𝑚𝑓𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑗𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑧 𝑔𝑨, 𝐹𝑊, 𝑢 = 𝑓𝑚𝑓𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑗𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑧 𝑔𝑨, 𝐶𝐹𝑊, 𝑢 + 𝑓𝑚𝑓𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑗𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑧 𝑔𝑨, 𝑄𝐼𝐹𝑊, 𝑢

Regional Distribution of EVs

Results

BEV and PHEV Population by Utility, Mid Case

BEV and PHEV Electricity Consumption by Utility, Mid Case

• 500,000

1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Vehicle Count

PG&E SCE SDG&E POUs

• 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Consumption (GWh)

PG&E SCE SDG&E POUs

Thank You

For further questions, please contact:

– Laura Zaninovich, Transportation Energy Forecasting Unit Supervisor

• Laura.Zaninovich@energy.ca.gov

– Aniss Bahreinian, Lead Transportation Forecaster

• Aniss.Bahreinian@energy.ca.gov

– Sudhakar Konala, ZEV Analysis

• Sudhakar.Konala@energy.ca.gov

– Mark Palmere, Light Duty Vehicles

• Mark.Palmere@energy.ca.gov

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