Electric vehicle study CITY OF MINNEAPOLIS 1 Electric vehicles in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CITY OF MINNEAPOLIS

Electric vehicle study

1

Electric vehicles in the city fleet

Overview of presentation

• Staff direction
• City fleet and current market
• Financial analysis
• Next steps

2

Electric vehicles in the city fleet

• Staff direction
• Benefits
• Feasibility
• Reasonable exceptions
• Cost benefit
• Various alternatives
• Recommended approach

3

Electric vehicles in the city fleet

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Why Electric Vehicles (EV) ?

• City of Minneapolis Climate Action Plan (2006)

Why Electric Vehicles (EV)?

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2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

2013 2014 2015 2016

Metric Tons CO2

Year

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trend – MPLS Fleet

Metric Tons CO2

Current electric vehicle availability

Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York

Light Duty Vehicles Heavy Duty Vehicles Non‐Road Vehicles

Sedans SUV / Mini vans Light Pickup Heavy Pickup Trucks / Cargo Vans Solid Waste Heavy Const. Light Const. All

• ther

EV

Yes Yes Testing R&D Testing Testing R&D R&D Testing

City vehicle profile

Light Duty Vehicles Heavy Duty Vehicles Non‐Road Vehicles

Sedans SUV / Minivans Light Pickups Heavy Pickups Trucks / Cargo Vans Solid Waste Heavy Construction Light Construction All other Vehicles Total 297 160 16 240 191 55 29 18 3

Ex.

Ford Focus Ford Escape Chevy Colorado Ford F-250 Western Star SB4700 Crane Carrier LET2-40 Volvo Wheel Loader L-90 Bobcat S185 Polaris Ranger

Electric vehicles in the city fleet

• Scenario Evaluation
• Background
• Approach
• Outcomes

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Strategies for EV Transition

Terminologies

Benefits

• Maintenance Savings: The savings in parts and labor for maintaining the

vehicle fleet and electric charging infrastructure

• Fuel Savings: The savings in fueling the entire fleet, includes gasoline,

biodiesel, and electricity purchases from business‐as‐usual (BAU)

• CO2 Reduction: The metric tons of carbon dioxide (MTCO2) emissions reduced

from BAU

Costs

• Total Capital Costs: The cost of purchasing the vehicles and charging stations
• Total O&M Costs: The total 10‐year lifecycle costs for fuel and maintenance
• f the fleet
• Lifecycle Costs: The summation of Total Capital Costs and Total O&M Costs

Strategies for EV Transition

Terminologies

Net Present Value

• Net Present Value: The total discounted net benefits over

the analysis period and represents the value of the total benefits minus costs in 2017 dollars

• Discount Rate: The analysis employs a discount rate for

present value discounting. The discount rates capture the time‐value of money as well as uncertainty risk. Cost Effectiveness

• Cost Effectiveness ‐ CO2 Reduction: Compared to BAU, the

cost to save one metric ton of CO2 by integrating electric vehicles into the fleet for each scenario

Strategies for EV Transition

Formation of Scenarios

Key Assumptions

• 10 year timeframe for all scenarios (2018 ‐ 2027)
• Number of EV replacement in a year < Number of ICE replacements in a year
• All ICE vehicles cannot be converted to EV in a 10 year timeframe

City’s Existing Plan for Vehicle Replacement (i.e., how many vehicles each year) Projected EV Industry Pricing, Technology, & Trends Assumed Financial Constraints Priority Goals of Fleet Conversion

Number and Type of EV to be Replaced in a Year

Strategies for EV Transition

Formation of Scenarios ‐ (Including Consideration of Financial, Industrial and Technical Constraints)

Scenario Objectives

• Scenario 1 ‐ Maximize CO2 reduction without financial constraints
• Scenario 2 – Maximize CO2 reduction with $5M financial constraint
• Scenario 3 – Maximize Net Present Value with $5M financial constraint
• Scenario 4 – Maximize Total Benefits (fuel, maintenance and CO2)
• Scenario 5 – Maximize total number of EV’s purchased
• Scenario 6 ‐ Maximize Net Present Value while delaying EV purchase for

two years to save funding (results same as Scenario 3) Key Considerations Among All Scenarios

• No SUV / Minivan Vehicle Purchase Until 2020
• No Heavy Duty Vehicle, Heavy Construction Vehicle, Light Construction

Vehicle Purchase Until 2022

Strategies for EV Transition

Business As Usual

Results and Comparison of Scenarios

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 / 6 Scenario 4 Scenario 5

Strategies for EV Transition

Results and Comparison of Scenarios

Total Number of EVs

456 271 82 82 439 458 45% 27% 8% 8% 44% 45% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

• Sc. 1
• Sc. 2
• Sc. 3
• Sc. 6
• Sc. 4
• Sc. 5

Percent of Fleet Number of EV Percent of Fleet

• # of EVs

Strategies for EV Transition

Results and Comparison of Scenarios with BAU

Benefits [ Maintenance Savings, Fuel Savings, CO2 Reduction ] 10.8 7.7 4.7 4.7 10.7 10.6

2 4 6 8 10 12

1 2 3

BAU

• Sc. 1
• Sc. 2
• Sc. 3
• Sc. 6
• Sc. 4
• Sc. 5

MTCO2 in Thousands

Maintenance Savings Fuel Savings CO2 Reduction

• Million $

Strategies for EV Transition

Results and Comparison of Scenarios with BAU

Costs [ Total Capital, Total O&M (Fuel + Maintenance), Lifecycle ]

127 131.1 128.7 126.9 126.9 130.8 131.1 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 BAU

• Sc. 1
• Sc. 2
• Sc. 3
• Sc. 6
• Sc. 4
• Sc. 5

Total Capital Costs Total O&M Costs Lifecycle Costs

Million $

Strategies for EV Transition

Results and Comparison of Scenarios with BAU

Net Present Value (NPV) [ NPV (3% & 7% Discount), Change in NPV from BAU (3% & 7% Discount) ]

0.6 1.4 2.5 2.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.7 1.7 ‐120 ‐100 ‐80 ‐60 ‐40 ‐20 20 BAU

• Sc. 1
• Sc. 2
• Sc. 3
• Sc. 6
• Sc. 4
• Sc. 5

NPV (3% Discount) NPV (7% Discount) Change in NPV (3% Discount) Change in NPV (7% Discount)

Million $

Strategies for EV Transition

Results and Comparison of Scenarios with BAU

Cost Effectiveness [ CO2 Reduction ] $ 0 $ 375 $ 222 ‐ $ 23 ‐ $ 23 $ 357 $ 378 ‐50 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

BAU

• Sc. 1
• Sc. 2
• Sc. 3
• Sc. 6
• Sc. 4
• Sc. 5

CO2 Reduction (Per MTCO2 Reduced)

Costs and Benefits of EV Transition

Cost Considerations

Capital Costs

• EV typically have lower fuel and maintenance costs than ICE vehicles,

but higher capital costs

• There is industry consensus that the cost of EVs are trending downward

as production volumes increase and battery costs decreases

Fuel Economy Estimates

• EV typically achieve better fuel economy and have lower fuel costs

than similar ICE vehicles

• The cost per kWh of electricity tends to be lower and more stable than

the cost per gallon of gasoline, diesel, or bio‐diesel

Costs and Benefits of EV Transition

Cost Considerations

Maintenance Costs

• EV has less moving parts, hence lower maintenance cost
• Over 5 years, EVs can save an average of 35% on maintenance in

comparison to ICE vehicles

Charging Infrastructure Considerations

• Plan ahead and install more Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE)

charging stations than currently needed (cost effective)

• EVSE should be purchased at approximately 1:1 ratio with number of

EVs (All EV can be charged adequately overnight)

• Planning for fleet recharging during off‐peak periods can add up to

thousands of dollars in savings

• Special tariff from power suppliers for usage during off‐peak hours

Costs and Benefits of EV Transition

Environmental Benefits

Estimated Annual Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Vehicle (pounds) Over a 10 year period (2018‐2027)

Ivy Station, Culver City, California

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 ICE EV ‐66% ‐63% ‐60% ‐70% ‐50% ‐64% ‐40% ‐40% ‐56%

Considerations Before EV Adoption

Monitor:

• Electric Vehicle Usage in Winter Months
• Potential Sources of Funding for EV Purchases
• Industry Progress with EV

Review:

• Vehicle Replacement Approach for New EV Models

Prepare:

• Infrastructure and Maintenance Staff for EV Operations

CITY OF MINNEAPOLIS

Questions

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