2017 4Q Results Presentation Athens, 22 February 2017
CONTENTS • Executive Summary • Industry Environment • Group Results Overview • Business Units Performance • Financial Results • Q&A 1
4Q17 KEY HIGHLIGHTS: Positive performance in 4Q leads to record FY results • 4Q17 Adj. EBITDA at € 170m (-21%), Adj. Net Income at € 59m (-28%) – Lower benchmark margins on increasing crude oil prices; stronger EUR vs USD – Exports up (+12%) due to higher utilisation – Strong realised margin on refining performance and feedstock mix • FY17 Adj. EBITDA at € 834m (+14%), with FY17 Adj. NI at € 372m (+40%): – Positive refining environment sustained (benchmark margins +11%), – Weaker domestic demand offset by strong Aviation and Bunkering sales – Record production (15m MT) and higher sales (16.1m MT); improved margin over-performance – Consistent performance from non-refining business units • 4Q17 IFRS Net Income at € 111m (-24% yoy), with FY17 at € 384m (+17%) – Strong DESFA performance and contribution in FY17 – Lower funding costs (-28% in 4Q17, -18% in FY17) • Cashflow & Balance sheet – 4Q17 operating cashflow (Adj. EBITDA – Capex) at € 99m, with FY17 at € 625m; Net Debt at €1.8bn – Refinancing of 2018 facilities in progress, further improving maturity profiles and cost of debt • Final Dividend of € 0.25/share proposed to AGM, FY17 DPS of € 0.4 / share (2016: FY € 0.20 / share) 2
4Q17 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Key Strategic Developments • 2 international bidders for DESFA submitted binding offers on 16 February 2018, evaluation of offers by sellers ELPE and TAIPED expected to lead to preferred bidder selection by end of 1Q18 • Ratification of Lease agreements for 2 onshore (100% ELPE) and one offshore area (in JV with TOTAL and EDISON) expected in the next few days; exploration works to start immediately after • Acquisition of 37%, not already owned by ELPE, of ELPET Valkaniki (owner of OKTA facilities and VARDAX pipeline) 3
4Q17 GROUP KEY FINANCIALS Refining sales volumes (m MT) +4% € million, IFRS 4Q FY 16.1 15.5 Δ% Δ% 2016 2017 2016 2017 Income Statement Sales Volume (MT'000) - Refining 3,802 4,077 7% 15,471 16,069 4% Sales Volume (MT'000) - Marketing 1,202 1,241 3% 4,668 5,165 11% Net Sales 1,860 2,106 6,613 7,995 13% 21% Segmental EBITDA 130 639 - Refining, Supply & Trading 169 -23% 536 19% 2016 2017 20 95 - Petrochemicals 25 -20% 100 -5% Adj. EBITDA ( € m) - Marketing 20 21 6% 101 107 6% +14% -1 -7 - Other -1 -57% -6 -19% 834 731 Adjusted EBITDA * 215 170 -21% 731 834 14% -4 31 Share of operating profit of associates ** 7 - 24 30% Adjusted EBIT * (including Associates) 166 116 -30% 551 676 23% Adjusted EBIT * 120 644 159 -25% 522 23% Currency exchange gains /(losses) 8 0 -98% 21 -8 - -37 -165 Finance costs - net -51 28% -201 18% 2016 2017 Adjusted Net Income * 82 59 -28% 265 372 40% IFRS Net Income ( € m) IFRS Reported EBITDA 303 243 841 851 -20% 1% +17% 384 IFRS Reported Net Income 111 384 145 -24% 329 17% 329 Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Capital Employed 3,903 4,173 7% Net Debt 1,759 1,800 2% Capital Expenditure 44 71 62% 126 209 66% (*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items 2016 2017 4 (**) Includes 35% share of operating profit of DEPA Group adjusted for one-off items
CONTENTS • Executive Summary • Industry Environment • Group Results Overview • Business Units Performance • Financial Results • Q&A 5
INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT Crude oil prices increase continued in 4Q17; stronger EUR vs USD ICE Brent ($/bb) and EUR/USD 70 62 1.60 • Crude oil prices averaged $62/bbl, on 55 60 52 51 51 1.50 50 tighter supply/demand balance 1.40 40 1.30 30 • 1.20 Stronger euro on monetary policy and 20 1.17 1.18 1.10 10 economic developments 1.10 1.08 1.06 0 1.00 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Brent ($/bbl) EURUSD Crude differentials ($/bbl) 6.1 • Further widening of Brent – WTI to $6/bbl 4.0 • Lower Russian exports led B – U spread to 2.6 2.7 $0.5/bbl 1.7 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.7 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Brent-WTI Brent - Urals 6
INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT Weakness in product cracks, particularly FO and gasoline and increasing oil prices led benchmark margins lower Med benchmark margins** ($/bbl) Product Cracks* ($/bbl) FCC $/bbl -15% 20 7.1 6.5 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.6 15 10 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017 5 Hydrocracking & FXC -3% 6.5 0 5.9 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.4 4.0 -5 -10 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017 Naphtha Gasoline ULSD HSFO (*) Brent based. (**) Revised benchmark margins set post-upgrades and secondary feedstock pricing adjustment 7
DOMESTIC MARKET ENVIRONMENT Weaker heating GO on weather conditions and auto-fuels drive domestic demand; aviation and marine fuels consumption higher Domestic Market demand* ( MT ‘000) -2% 7,043 6,902 -6% LPG & Others 886 -6% 833 +3% -1% -3% 2.052 1.934 Heating GO 1,200 1,173 -2% 1.838 1.790 1.626 1.605 1.575 1.525 Diesel 2,538 2,552 < +1% MOGAS 2,420 2,345 -3% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2016 2017 2016 2017 +16% Aviation & Bunkers demand ( MT ‘000) 3,919 3,382 +12% +19% 1.335 2,176 +22% 1.192 Bunkers FO 1,784 +11% 1.044 +26% 876 812 728 734 592 +6% 580 Bunkers Gasoil 558 1,151 Aviation 1,040 +11% 2016 2017 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2016 2017 (*) Does not include PPC and armed forces 8 Source: Ministry of Production Restructuring, Environment and Energy
CONTENTS • Executive Summary • Industry Environment • Group Results Overview • Business Units Performance • Financial Results • Q&A 9
CAUSAL TRACK & SEGMENTAL RESULTS OVERVIEW 4Q 2017 Improved performance partly offsets weaker industry environment Adjusted EBITDA causal track 4Q17 vs 4Q16 ( € m) 215 Performance Environment 20 MK 29 170 25 Chems 26 1 9 MK 21 20 Chems 169 Refining, Refining, S&T S&T 130 Other Other -1 -1 (incl. E&P) (incl. E&P) 4Q16 Benchmark Refining FX Supply benefits / Ops Others 4Q17 Margins 10
CAUSAL TRACK & SEGMENTAL RESULTS OVERVIEW YEAR 2017 Strong operating performance and improved crude mix outweigh effect of heavier maintenance schedule Adjusted EBITDA causal track 2017 vs 2016 ( € m) Performance Environment 834 731 31 107 MK 21 48 100 55 101 95 Chems 100 MK Chems 639 536 Refining, Refining, S&T S&T -6 Other Other -7 (incl. E&P) (incl. E&P) 2016 Benchmark FX Refining Supply benefits / Others 2017 Refining Margins Maintenance Ops & Asset Utilisation 11
CREDIT FACILITIES - LIQUIDITY Strong operational cash flows and improving market conditions, led to €600m Gross Debt reduction; combined with refinancing plan implementation, interest costs are down 18% yoy Gross Debt ( € m) Finance Costs ( € m) -18% 3,253 -23% 3,130 2,868 215 2,658 2,675* 201 201 165 41% 22% 35% 29 % 7% 2015 1H16 2016 1H17 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 Banks (committed) Debt Capital Markets Banks (uncommitted) EIB Interest Cover ratio (x times)** ELPE Bond (Mid YTM %) ELPEGA 4.875 2021 EUR450m 5,2 6 3,9 3,8 5 4 3.02% 2,1 3 2 10/2016 02/2017 06/2017 10/2017 02/2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 • * Pro-forma for the repayment of the facility used as collateral of the EIB loan • ** (Adjusted EBITDA + Income from Associates) / Interest Cost 12
Credit Facilities – Refinancing Refinancing of 2018 maturities in progress, driving additional cost reduction and further improvement in credit profile; options for 2019 Eurobond refinancing under consideration 4Q17 Pro-Forma (post refinancing) Maturity 4Q17 Term Credit Lines Maturity Profile ( € m) Profile ( € m) 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Debt Capital Markets Banks EIB • Re-profiling of 2018 maturities to 2021 and 2023 • Eurobonds refinancing under review subject to market conditions • Target to achieve minimum average maturity on loan portfolio of 3-4 years for liquidity risk management 13
DIVIDEND POLICY Strong profitability, cash flows, lower interest costs and working capital normalization support dividend increase EPS and DPS 2016-2017 ( € /share) 1.26 1.22 1.08 0.87 0.4 0.2 2016 2017 Clean EPS Reported EPS DPS • Based on results and financing position, BoD proposed a final dividend of € 0.25/share i.e. FY17 DPS of € 0.4/share (2016: € 0.2/share) • Dividend policy to be determined in 2018 taking into account DESFA transaction 14
CAPEX Increased operational cash flows enable implementation of selective opportunities to improve competiveness and grow; heavier refining maintenance capex in 2017; plans for 2018 include small growth projects Capex evolution 2009 - 2018 ( € m) • 2017 capex mainly focused on refining 709 675 maintenance and compliance, as well 614 as targeted growth initiatives 521 • FY18 planned capex at € 175m subject to growth project opportunities Growth & Competitiveness 209 175 165 136 126 112 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Plan) Maintenance & Compliance 15
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