2016 FEED-IN TARIFF ALLOWANCE RATE APPLICATION
EXPOSITORY PRESENTATION
Pasig, March 8, 2016 DINNA O. DIZON
Head, FIT-All Team National Transmission Corporation
2016 FEED-IN TARIFF ALLOWANCE RATE APPLICATION EXPOSITORY - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2016 FEED-IN TARIFF ALLOWANCE RATE APPLICATION EXPOSITORY PRESENTATION Pasig, March 8, 2016 DINNA O. DIZON Head, FIT-All Team National Transmission Corporation OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION I. Background II. FIT-All Rate Determination III.
EXPOSITORY PRESENTATION
Pasig, March 8, 2016 DINNA O. DIZON
Head, FIT-All Team National Transmission Corporation
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as of February 24, 2016 Plant Type Number Capacity for FIT (MW) Solar 6 68.08 Wind 7 426.9 Biomass 6 69.33 Run of River Hydro 3 25.93 TOTAL 22 590.24
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RE PLANTS with RE Payment Agreement (REPA)
as of February 24, 2016 Plant Type
Effective REPA Signed REPA*
On Process**
No. MW No. MW No. MW Solar 6 68.08 6 244.44 7 105.27 Wind 7 426.90
6 69.33 6 70.1
Hydro 3 25.93 1 1.80
22*** 590.24 13 316.34 7 105.27
*Includes REPA signed by both parties/being routed for signature of TransCo/those being notarized at TransCo **Includes REPA currently being signed by RE developer and applications for REPA with lacking documents *** Of the 22 REPAs, FIT billings for 20 REPAs have commenced
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Total generation billed as of December 2015 Billing Period and FIT Differential balance as of 24 February 2016:
Note: ‘Actual Energy Generation Billed’ does not yet reflect energy generation in 2014/2015 1) That has not actually been billed (one at a time billing of backlog per REPA) 2) Of potentially FIT-eligible RE Plants that have not been granted/have just been granted FIT COC to date but have COD in 2014 or 2015. Wind 635,296.68 3,383,651,980.51 1,426,643,935.69 Solar 92,188.58 446,124,228.07 128,269,652.66 Biomass 92,271.80 352,314,649.15 177,359,050.88 Hydro 48,878.44 111,436,041.08 77,385,803.58 TOTAL 868,635.51 4,293,526,898.80 1,809,658,442.81 FIT DIFFERENTIAL BALANCE, Pesos RE TECHNOLOGY ACTUAL ENERGY GENERATION BILLED (MWH) FIT DIFFERENTIAL DUE, Pesos
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FIT-ALL COLLECTION AGENTS PEMC (FOR THE ACRR) 94.62% 99.00%
Actual as of February 24, 2016
As Estimated in the 2016 FIT-All Application
FIT-ALL COLLECTION AGENTS PEMC (FOR THE ACRR) 96.03% 99.27%
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Cash Receipts FIT-All Collection (March-2015 February 24, 2016) 2,543,383,229.12 CRR Collection (June 2015- February 24, 2016) 1,226,769,683.13 Interest on Deposits 289,541.58 Total 3,770,442,453.83 Disbursements Payment to RE Developers 3,710,846,715.95 Payment of Interest 610,003.78 Payment to LBP (Mar-November 2015) 520,000.00 Total 3,711,976,719.73 FIT-All Fund Balance, as of February 24, 2016 58,465,734.10 FIT-ALL STATEMENT OF CASH FLOW
As of February 24, 2016
Balance of Payables to RE (with Billings) Total RE Claim (April 2015 - January 31, 2016) 5,532,710,608.86 Total Payment to RE (May 2015 -Feb 24, 2016) 3,710,846,715.95 Unpaid RE Claim as of February 24, 2016 1,821,863,892.92
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Note: Calculations made were based on actual billing data as
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Capacities/Generation Forecast (DOE)
Price and Blended Generation Cost (PEMC/DASURECO/kuryente.org)
formula)
(actual collection efficiency of FIT-All Fund Collection Agents)
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PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE RE CAPACITIES & INSTALLATION TARGETS
Plants Installed Capacity,
Plants Installed Capacity, BIOMASS 15 153.196 16 160.49 EXISTING 6 60.926 6 60.926 NEW 9 92.27 10 99.564 HYDROPOWER 5 35.73 12 59.98 EXISTING 2 5.6 2 5.6 NEW 3 30.13 10 54.38 SOLAR 11 161.9 22 523.02 NEW 11 161.9 22 523.02 WIND 7 426.9 7 426.9 EXISTING 1 33 1 33 NEW 6 393.9 6 393.9 TOTAL 38 777.726 57 1170.39 EXISTING 9 99.526 9 99.526 1400 NEW 29 678.2 48 1070.864 400 Installation Targets 2015 2016 250 250 500
PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE PLANTS FOR 2015 & 2016
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PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE PLANTS FOR 2015 & 2016
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PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE PLANTS FOR 2015 & 2016
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PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE PLANTS FOR 2015 & 2016
19 ADMINISTRATION ALLOWANCE (AA)
FIT
DIFFERENTIAL (FD) WORKING CAPITAL ALLOWANCE (WCA)
FIT ALL RATE, P/kWh
DISBURSEMENT ALLOWANCE (DA)
FORECAST NATIONAL SALES (FNS)
FIT-ALL FORMULA
𝐷𝐵𝐻𝑆𝑢𝑝,𝑢𝑜 = 𝑊
𝑢𝑜
𝑊
𝑢𝑝 1 𝑢𝑜−𝑢𝑝
− 1
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Luzon 44,063,677,000 45,803,175,000 47,240,505,000 Visayas 7,646,701,000 7,867,617,000 8,039,020,000 Mindanao 7,500,241,000 7,894,820,000 8,065,259,000 Sales, kWh 59,210,619,000 61,565,612,000 63,344,784,000 65,962,899,825 68,380,633,362 Growth Rate 5.19 3.66 4.13 3.67 3.56
FORECAST ELECTRICITY SALES, kWh ACTUAL ELECTRICITY SALES, kWh
FORECAST ANNUAL NATIONAL SALES
FIT DIFFERENTIAL
TOTAL FIT REVENUE ( Forecast Annual RE Generation x FIT Rate
FORECAST COST RECOVERY REVENUE ( Forecast Annual RE Generation x CRR Rate
(OVER)/UNDER RECOVERY
DATA NEEDED SOURCE FIT Eligible RE Actual/Forecast Annual Generation 2014- 2016 DOE/RE FIT Rate ERC CRR Rate Luzon & Visayas (LWAP) Mindanao (Blended Rate of Host DU) DASURECO
ZAMCELCO, MAGELCO, BUSECO. MORESCO II, SOCOTECO II
PEMC
ERC Decision on 2014- 2015 FIT-All Application www.kuryente.org
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FIT DIFFERENTIAL
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Technology 2014-2015 2016 2017 Biomass 309,839 682,407 761,454 Hydropower 108,271 187,342 492,222 Solar 158,580 632,686 707,963 Wind 875,169 977,205 977,477 Total 1,451,859 2,479,639 2,939,116
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2014-2015 Entrant 2016 Entrant Biomass 6.6300 7.0508 7.0508 Hydro 5.9000 6.4601 6.4601 Solar FIT 1 9.6800 9.9067 FIT 2 8.6900 8.6900 8.6900 Wind FIT 1 8.5300 8.9006 FIT 2 7.4000 7.4000 Average Forex (Jul2014-June2015) 44.4187 Average CPI(Jul2014-June2015) 140.9500 2015 Base FIT Rate 2016 Adjusted FIT-Rate
ADJUSTED FIT RATE, Php/kWh
24 Month Luzon Visayas Luzon Visayas Month Luzon Visayas Luzon Visayas 1 Aug.2015 3,691.00 3,953.00 3.6910 3.9530 19 Feb.2014 2,487.60 2.4876 2 Jul.2015 4,518.00 4,186.00 4.5180 4.1860 20 Jan.2014 2,308.88 2.3089 3 Jun.2015 6,322.00 6,864.00 6.3220 6.8640 21 Dec.2013 18,193.89 18.1939 4 May.2015 4,457.00 4,839.00 4.4570 4.8390 22 Nov.2013 16,122.20 3,181.91 16.1222 3.1819 5 Apr.2015 2,810.00 2,905.00 2.8100 2.9050 23 Oct.2013 6,641.10 6,319.51 6.6411 6.3195 6 Mar.2015 5,075.00 5,337.00 5.0750 5.3370 24 Sept.2013 2,678.01 3,027.90 2.6780 3.0279 7 Feb.2015 5,079.00 5,225.00 5.0790 5.2250 25 Aug.2013 3,202.23 2,949.65 3.2022 2.9497 8 Jan.2015 3,367.00 3,477.00 3.3670 3.4770 26 Jul.2013 2,864.93 2,876.17 2.8649 2.8762 9 Dec.2014 2,068.00 2,812.00 2.0680 2.8120 27 Jun.2013 4,309.76 4,054.88 4.3098 4.0549 10 Nov.2014 3,253.00 3,874.00 3.2530 3.8740 28 May.2013 6,023.34 6,014.31 6.0233 6.0143 11 Oct.2014 3,539.00 1,706.00 3.5390 1.7060 29 Apr.2013 6,993.49 7,158.28 6.9935 7.1583 12 Sept.2014 5,544.00 (528.00) 5.5440 (0.5280) 30 Mar.2013 4,889.87 4,226.06 4.8899 4.2261 13 Aug.2014 5,694.00 4,571.00 5.6940 4.5710 31 Feb.2013 2,791.71 2,626.82 2.7917 2.6268 14 Jul.2014 8,104.00 7,745.00 8.1040 7.7450 32 Jan.2013 3,038.42 3,248.66 3.0384 3.2487 15 Jun.2014 6,443.00 6,730.00 6.4430 6.7300 33 Dec.2012 6,106.52 6,157.75 6.1065 6.1578 16 May.2014 6,642.33 7,220.01 6.6423 7.2200 34 Nov.2012 5,393.59 5,495.79 5.3936 5.4958 17 Apr.2014 9,950.57 6,377.21 9.9506 6.3772 35 Oct.2012 6,408.79 5,555.74 6.4088 5.5557 18 Mar.2014 6,788.21 6.7882 36 Sept.2012 4,301.10 4,704.07 4.3011 4.7041 Average 5,502.7928 4,527.8350
5.5028 4.5278
LWAP, Pesos per MWh LWAP, Pesos per KWh LWAP, Pesos per MWh LWAP, Pesos per KWh
FORECAST COST RECOVERY RATE (WESM)
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Month 4.7592 Month 3.9706 Month 2.7801 Month 3.7339 Month 3.3684 Month 4.7054 Jul-14 Mar-13
3.7733
Apr-13
2.9111
Mar-14
3.9461 Dec-13 5.4322 Jun-14 5.5771
Aug-14 Apr-13
4.0039
May-13
2.9252
Apr-14
3.8874 Nov-13 5.2457 May-14 5.6809
Sep-14 May-13
3.6946
Jun-13
2.9397
May-14
3.9548 Oct-13 2.7676 Apr-14 4.9506
Oct-14 Jun-13
4.1716
Jul-13
2.9602
Jun-14
3.7615 Sep-13 2.8466 Mar-14 4.4668
Nov-14 Jul-13
4.0879
Aug-13
2.6801
Jul-14
3.5164 Aug-13 2.7133 Feb-14 4.0333
Dec-14 Aug-13
3.4498
Sep-13
2.6528
Aug-14
3.1716 Jul-13 3.1204 Jan-14 4.4126
Jan-15 Sep-13
4.0745
Oct-13
2.5975
Sep-14
3.2394 Jun-13 3.0294 Dec-13 4.6436
Feb-15 Oct-13
4.4505
Nov-13
2.5852
Oct-14
3.6330 May-13 3.0684 Nov-13 4.9149
Mar-15 Nov-13
4.2953
Dec-13
2.6471
Nov-14
3.6700 Apr-13 3.0450 Oct-13 5.0902
Apr-15 Dec-13
3.8422
Jan-14
2.5929
Dec-14
3.5871 Mar-13 3.0718 Sep-13 4.6593
May-15 Jan-14
3.8280
Feb-14
2.9262
Jan-15
3.1864 Mar-12 2.9806 Aug-13 3.6858
Jun-15 Feb-14
3.9756
Mar-14
2.9437
Feb-15
5.2533 Feb-12 3.1000 Jul-13 4.3502 Magelco Zamcelco Dasureco Buseco Moresco II Socoteco II For Mindanao
Bsed on ERC Decision dated Sept 29, 2015 (page 44)
HOST DUs BLENDED GENERATION COST
FIT DIFFERENTIAL
TOTAL FIT REVENUE ( Forecast Annual RE Generation x FIT Rate
FORECAST COST RECOVERY REVENUE ( Forecast Annual RE Generation x CRR Rate
(OVER)/UNDER RECOVERY
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Forecast FD Payables for 2015 4,295,483,186.44 Actual FD Payment (As of Oct 5, 2015) 1,345,372,909.88 Forecast Balance as of Oct 5, 2015 2,950,110,276.56 Estimated FD Payment (Oct 6, 2015-Feb, 2016) 1,114,202,382.48 Estimated (Over) Under Recoveries for 2015 1,835,907,894.08 FD Under Recoveries, P/kWh
0.0268
FIT DIFFERENTIAL (UNDER-RECOVERY)
FIT DIFFERENTIAL
TOTAL FIT REVENUE ( Forecast Annual RE Generation x FIT Rate
FORECAST COST RECOVERY REVENUE ( Forecast Annual RE Generation x CRR Rate
(OVER)/UNDER RECOVERY
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2016 FIT Revenue 19,676,565,718.08 Less Forecast Cost Recovery Revenue 12,750,781,279.58 2016 FIT Differential 6,925,784,438.51 Add: 2015 FD (Over)Under Recoveries 1,835,907,894.08 FIT Differential Requirement 8,761,692,332.59 FIT Differential P/kWh
0.1281
WCA t+1
Forecast Annual Payout
t+2
Factor Rate
WCA Ending Balancet
DATA NEEDED SOURCE Forecast Annual Payoutt+2 As computed Factor Rate NREB formula
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WORKING CAPITAL ALLOWANCE
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2017 FORECAST ANNUAL PAYOUT, PHP
COMPONENTS DATA SOURCE
Cost Recovery Revenue-WESM As computed Total Annual Payout As computed Factor RateWESM
1- PEMC Collection Efficiency
Collection Efficiency (Actual) FD,AA,DA, CRRNon-WESM As computed Factor RateFIT-All
𝟐 𝟐𝟑
+(𝟐−𝑫𝒑𝒎𝒎𝒇𝒅𝒖𝒋𝒑𝒐 𝑭𝒈𝒈𝒋𝒅𝒋𝒇𝒐𝒅𝒛𝑭𝑫,𝑬𝑽,𝑶𝑯𝑫𝑸) 𝑫𝒑𝒎𝒎𝒇𝒅𝒖𝒋𝒑𝒐 𝑭𝒈𝒈𝒋𝒅𝒋𝒇𝒐𝒅𝒛𝑭𝑫,𝑬𝑽,𝑶𝑯𝑫𝑸
Collection Efficiency (Actual)
Factor Rate
CRRWESM
Total Annual Payout
Factor RateWESM
FD,AA,DA, CRRNon-
WESM
Total Annual Payout
Factor RateFIT All
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FACTOR RATE FORMULA (As Recommended by NREB)
*per NREB Resolution No. 3 Series of 2014
Factor Rate
CRR- WESM Total Annual Payout
Factor RateWESM
FD,AA,DA, CRRNon-
WESM
Total Annual Payout
Factor RateFIT All
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CRRWESM FD,AA, DA, CRRNon-
WESM
Annual Payout 13,405,891,346 9,456,234,750 Divided By: Total Annual Payout 22,862,126,096 22,862,126,096 Ratio 0.5864 0.4136 X Factor Rate 0.73% 12.30% Weighted Factor Rate 0.43% 5.09% Effective Factor Rate
5.5145%
FACTOR RATE
Forecast CRR Receivable (Sept 2015-Dec 2015) 3,837,875,248.49 Expected CRR Collection (99.27% Collection Efficiency) 3,810,015,943.94 27,859,304.54 Add: 2015 Disbursement Allowance 739,990.00 28,599,294.54 Estimated Uncollected CRR WCA Deficiency
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WCA t+1
Forecast Annual Payout t+2
Factor Rate
WCA Ending Balancet
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Technology 2016 2017 Forecast Annual Payout
19,677,619,818
22,862,126,096 x Factor Rate
5.5145%
5.5145% Equals: Portion of Annual Payout
1,085,129,553
1,260,740,318 Less: WCA Ending Balance (Year n) (28,599,295) Working Capital Allowance 1,289,339,613 WCA P/kWh
0.0189 WORKING CAPITAL ALLOWANCE (WCA) PhP
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ANNUAL TRUST FEE 720,000.00 BSP Supervision Fee (1/28 of 1%) of Asset Under Management 281,599.95 ONCOL FEE Php 40.00/ transaction (free 180 transactions) 52,500.00 DISBURSEMENT ALLOWANCE, Php 1,054,099.95 DISBURSEMENT ALLOWANCE, Php/KWh
0.00002
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AA
FD
WCA
FIT ALL RATE, P/kWh
DA FNS
COMPONENTS Amount (Php) Rate (P/kWh) Share FD 8,761,692,333 0.1281 87.16% WCA 1,289,339,613 0.0189 12.83% AA 0.0000 0.00% DA 1,054,100 0.0000 0.01% Total 10,052,086,045 FNS, kWh 68,380,633,362 FIT-All, Php/kWh
SUMMARY OF 2016 FIT ALL RATE APPLICATION
2016 FIT-All Rate Build-Up 0.0406
SOURCES OF INCREASE (DECREASE)
Pesos Pesos/kWh 1,080,780,822.65
0.0158
0.0564
4,386,951,533.72
0.0642
0.1205 FIT Differential
3,676,324,470.08
0.0538
WCA
710,627,063.64
0.0104
231,544,904.42
0.0034
0.1239 FIT Differential
247,120,185.13
0.0036
WCA
(15,575,280.70)
(0.0002)
(286,704,903.71)
(0.0042)
0.1197 WCA
(286,704,903.71)
(0.0042)
0.1197 Administrative Allowance
DA Effect on WCA
1,112,228.68
0.0000
0.1197 Disbursement Allowance
1,054,099.95
0.0000
DA Effect on WCA
58,128.73
0.0000
28,599,294.54
0.0004
0.1202
1,835,907,894.08
0.0268
0.1470
NET INCREASE (DECREASE)
5,700,389,489.47
0.1064
Increase from 2014-2015 Application
2014-2015 Approved FIT-All Rate
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as of October 2015
Plant Type
WITH PAYMENT AS OF OCT. 5 P.D. WITH FIT COC/EFFECTIVE REPA BUT NOT YET BEING PAID WITH COE FROM DOE WITH NOMINATION FROM DOE TOTAL No. MW No. MW No. MW No. MW No. MW
SOLAR 6 68.08 2 64.30 8 132.38 WIND 3 249.90 2 33.00 3 144.00 7 426.90 BIOMASS 2 20.19 1 22.64 5 45.10 2 32 11 119.93 HYDRO 1 8.13 1 14.00 2 5.60 4 27.73 TOTAL 12 346.30 4 69.64 12 259.00 2 32 30 706.94
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Increase/ (Decrease) Total Increase/ (Decrease) Total Increase/ (Decrease) Total Increase/ (Decrease) Total MW 345.92 69.64 415.56 259.00 674.56 32.00 706.56 463.84 1,170.39 MWH 807,951 172,651 980,602 626,073 1,606,675 153,032 1,759,707 719,933 2,479,639 FIT-ALL Rate, P/kWh FD 0.0508 0.0034 0.0543 0.0341 0.0883 0.0042 0.0925 0.0356 0.1281 WCA 0.0058 0.0004 0.0062 0.0032 0.0095 0.0005 0.0100 0.0089 0.0189 AA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 DA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 FIT-ALL Rate, 0.0566 0.0038 0.0605 0.0373 0.0978 0.0047 0.1025 0.0445 0.1470 FIT COC- Certificate of Compliance Issued by the ERC COE-Certificate of Endorsement issued by the DOE Nomination-Issued by the COE With FIT COC With Payment As of October 5, With COE With Nomination Others in the DOE List
INCREMENTAL MOVEMENT OF THE 2016 FIT-ALL FOR DIFFERENT RE PLANT/PROJECT CATEGORIES
effective January 2016 billing period
and remit the FIT-All to the FIT-All Fund as provided in the FIT-All Guidelines
provided in the FIT-All Guidelines
recommended formula by the NREB under the 2014-2015 FIT-All Application and adopt the same in the computation of the WCA and the FIT-All Rate for 2016
hearing, OR IN THE ALTERNATIVE, such other amount as may be found by the ERC to be consistent with the FIT-All Guidelines and on the basis
f. To waive the payment of ERC supervision fees, if any
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as of March 7, 2016
Plant Type
WITH PAYMENT AS OF MARCH 5 P.D. WITH FIT COC/EFFECTIVE REPA BUT NOT YET BEING PAID WITH COE FROM DOE WITH NOMINATION FROM DOE TOTAL No. MW No. MW No. MW No. MW No. MW
SOLAR 6 68 4 92 10 301 20 461 WIND 5 358 2 69 7 427 BIOMASS 5 56 1 14 5 56 2 15 13 140 HYDRO 2 22 1 4 1 2 1 8 5 36 TOTAL 18 504 4 87 10 149 13 323 45 1,063
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