2016-2018 TERM REPORT REVIEW August 21, 2019 INTRODUCTION Purpose - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2016-2018 TERM REPORT REVIEW August 21, 2019 INTRODUCTION Purpose - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2016-2018 TERM REPORT REVIEW August 21, 2019 INTRODUCTION Purpose of this presentation is to build on the overall results presented by the PAs Provides additional information on: Multi-year trends New focus on multi-benefit

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2016-2018 TERM REPORT REVIEW

►August 21, 2019

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www.ma-eeac.org | 2 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

INTRODUCTION

►Purpose of this presentation is to build on the

  • verall results presented by the PAs

►Provides additional information on: − Multi-year trends

  • New focus on multi-benefit plan: total energy savings, non-

lighting savings, active demand, storage, etc.

− Sector performance − End use data ►Puts 2016-2018 results in context of 2019-2021 Plan ►Tees up sector focused meetings in September and

October

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www.ma-eeac.org | 3 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

HIGH LEVEL OBSERVATIONS

►Overall, PAs achieved more savings at a lower cost

than planned

►Residential Electric − Lighting accounted for a large portion of residential savings

  • “Deeper” measures must be focus of 2019-2021 plan

►Residential Gas − 2018 savings overachievement largely from insulation and wifi thermostats ►C&I Electric − Lighting in transition, but still and opportunity in 2019-2021 − Electric HVAC savings declined in 2016-2018; unclear from data whether trend is reversing ►C&I Gas − HVAC gas savings are increasing

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www.ma-eeac.org | 4 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

ELECTRIC LIFETIME SAVINGS

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  • 2,000,000

4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Portfolio Lifetime Electric Savings (MWh)

Actual Planned Preliminary Planned (No Large CHP Project)

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www.ma-eeac.org | 5 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

ELECTRIC CAPACITY SAVINGS

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  • 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Portfolio Electric Capacity Savings (kW)

Actual Planned Planned (Plus Active Demand Reduction)

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www.ma-eeac.org | 6 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

LIFETIME ELECTRIC COSTS TO ACHIEVE

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$0.000 $0.010 $0.020 $0.030 $0.040 $0.050 $0.060 $0.070 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Lifetime Electric Costs to Achieve ($/kWh)

Evaluated Plan Plan (No Large CHP Project)

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www.ma-eeac.org | 7 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

GAS LIFETIME SAVINGS

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  • 100

200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Portfolio Lifetime Gas Savings (Million Therms)

Actual Planned Preliminary

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www.ma-eeac.org | 8 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

TOTAL BENEFITS (ELECTRIC AND GAS PROGRAMS)

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  • 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Total Benefits ($Millions)

Planned Actual

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www.ma-eeac.org | 9 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

Sector Review and Analysis

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www.ma-eeac.org | 10 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

Residential

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www.ma-eeac.org | 11 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC LIFETIME SAVINGS

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  • 500,000

1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Lifetime Electric Savings by Sector (MWh)

Actual Residential Planned Residential Actual Low-Income Planned Low-Income

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www.ma-eeac.org | 12 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

RESIDENTIAL LIFETIME GAS SAVINGS

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  • 50

100 150 200 250 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Lifetime Gas Savings by Sector (Million Therms)

Actual Residential Planned Residential Actual Low-Income Planned Low-Income

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www.ma-eeac.org | 13 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

RESIDENTIAL SA VINGS BY END USE, ALL FUELS

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  • 2,000,000

4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Residential Lifetime Savings by End Use, All Fuel (MMBtus)

Envelope HVAC Lighting Hot Water Energy Star Homes Behavior Process

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www.ma-eeac.org | 14 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

LIGHTING MEASURES DOMINATE ELECTRIC SAVINGS IN 2016-18

  • 1,000,000

2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 MWh

Top 10 Res Electric Lifetime Savings Measures 2016-18 vs. 2019-21

2016-18 2019-21

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In 2016-18 top 10 measures = 93% of lifetime savings

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www.ma-eeac.org | 15 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

OPPORTUNITIES IN DEEPER SAVINGS MEASURES

  • 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

Behavior Reports Circulator Pump Insulation (Electric) Smart Strip Refrigerator Recycling Heating (New Construction) Heat Pump Prog. Thermostat (Electric)

MWh

2016-18

2019-21

| 15 3/3 4/5 5/8 6/6 7/7 8/11 9/4 10/- Savings rank 2016-18/2019-21

Heat pump savings increase in new term, and

  • pportunities for other major

measures

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www.ma-eeac.org | 16 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

2018 RES GAS LIFETIME SAVINGS GOAL SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEEDED

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24% over

2018 lifetime goal

= 46 million more Therms

Wifi Thermostats Wifi Thermostats Insulation Insulation Furnaces Furnaces Programmable Thermostats Programmable Thermostats

Top 4 Overachieving Gas Measures in 2018

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www.ma-eeac.org | 17 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

RESIDENTIAL BENEFITS

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Residential and Low Income Benefits (Electric and Gas Programs)

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 2016-2018 (Planned) 2016-2018 (Actual) 2019-2021 (Planned) 2016-2018 (Planned) 2016-2018 (Actual) 2019-2021 (Planned) Residential Low Income $ Millions Water Benefits Propane Benefits Oil Benefits Gas Benefits Non Resource Benefits Electric Energy Benefits

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www.ma-eeac.org | 18 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

RESIDENTIAL COSTS

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Residential Spending by Cost Category (Electric and Gas Programs)

72% 74% 67% 17% 16% 21% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3%

  • 200

400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2016-2018 (Planned) 2016-2018 (Actual) 2019-2021 (Planned) $ Millions

Evaluation and Market Research Marketing and Advertising Program Planning and Admin Sales, Technical Assistance & Training Participant Incentives

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www.ma-eeac.org | 19 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

Commercial & Industrial

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www.ma-eeac.org | 20 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

ELECTRIC SAVINGS BY END USE

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  • 100,000

200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Annual C&I Electric Savings by End Use (MWh)

Lighting HVAC CHP Motors & Drives All Other End Uses

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www.ma-eeac.org | 21 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

C&I LIGHTING SAVINGS PROJECTED TO DECLINE BUT POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS

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  • 100,000

200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Annual C&I Lighting Savings (MWh)

2016-2018 Evaluated 2019-2021 Plan DNV GL Market Model (w/ KPI #4 % controls)

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www.ma-eeac.org | 22 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

ELECTRIC HVAC SAVINGS DECLINE, BUT NEW PLAN CALLS FOR REBOUND

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525,892

  • 100,000

200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Lifetime Electric C&I HVAC Savings (MWh)

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www.ma-eeac.org | 23 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

UPSTREAM HVAC OPPORTUNITIES

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  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Upstream C&I HVAC Elec. Annual Savings (MWh)

Unitary Air Conditioners Heat Pump Systems Dual Enthalpy Economizer Controls (DEEC) ECM Fan Motors VRF Systems

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www.ma-eeac.org | 24 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

GAS SAVINGS BY END USE

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  • 1

2 3 4 5 6 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Annual C&I Gas Savings by End Use (Million Therms)

HVAC Hot Water Process Envelope Custom Measures Food Service All Other

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www.ma-eeac.org | 25 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

GAS HVAC SAVINGS INCREASE

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60.1

  • 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Lifetime C&I HVAC Gas Savings (Million Therms)

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THANK YOU QUESTIONS?

►August 21, 2019

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www.ma-eeac.org | 27 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

Appendix

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www.ma-eeac.org | 28 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

ELECTRIC ANNUAL SAVINGS

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  • 200,000

400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Portfolio Annual Electric Savings (MWh)

Actual Planned Preliminary Large CHP Project

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www.ma-eeac.org | 29 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

ELECTRIC LIFETIME SAVINGS BY SECTOR

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  • 2,000,000

4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Lifetime Electric Savings by Sector (MWh)

Actual C&I Planned C&I Actual Residential Planned Residential Actual Low-Income Planned Low-Income Large CHP Project

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www.ma-eeac.org | 30 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

ELECTRIC SAVINGS AS A % OF SALES

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3.31% 3.18% 3.18% 2.62% 3.04% 2.43% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Portfolio Annual Electric Savings (% of Sales)

Actual Planned

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www.ma-eeac.org | 31 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

ELECTRIC SAVINGS AS A % OF SALES BY PA

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3.18% 3.04% 2.62% 2.58% 2.43%

0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Actual Planned

Electric Savings as a % of Sales by PA

Cape Light Compact Eversource National Grid Unitil Statewide Statewide (No large CHP Project)

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www.ma-eeac.org | 32 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

ELECTRIC COSTS TO ACHIEVE BY PA

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$0.000 $0.020 $0.040 $0.060 $0.080 $0.100 $0.120 $0.140 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Actual Planned

Electric Lifetime Cost to Achieve by PA ($/kWh)

Cape Light Compact Eversource National Grid Unitil Statewide

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www.ma-eeac.org | 33 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

LIFETIME GAS SAVINGS

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  • 50

100 150 200 250 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Portfolio Lifetime Gas Savings by Sector (Million Therms)

Actual C&I Planned C&I Actual Residential Planned Residential Actual Low-Income Planned Low-Income

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www.ma-eeac.org | 34 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

GAS SAVINGS AS A PERCENT OF SALES

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1.24% 1.24% 1.25% 1.24% 1.25% 1.27% 1.20% 1.20% 1.39% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Portfolio Gas Savings as a % of Sales

Planned Actual

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www.ma-eeac.org | 35 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

2016-2018 RESIDENTIALAND LOW INCOME SECTORS – OVERVIEW

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Electricity

Residential Low Income

Amount Percent to Goal Amount Percent to Goal Annual Savings (MWh) 2,161,717 124% 131,485 111% Lifetime Savings (MWh) 13,047,577 98% 1,202,418 116% Summer (kW) 318,990 123% 16,363 115% Benefits ($ millions) $2,267 95% $373 107% Expenditures ($ millions) $689 88% $194 98%

Gas

Residential Low Income

Amount Percent to Goal Amount Percent to Goal Annual Savings (Therms) 48,145,611 105% 6,218,436 100% Lifetime Savings (Therms) 589,963,801 107% 124,094,834 101% Benefits ($ millions) $929 101% $247 117% Expenditures ($ millions) $371 97% $133 101%

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www.ma-eeac.org | 36 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

RESIDENTIAL SAVINGS CONTRIBUTION BY INITIATIVE

Program Annual Lifetime 2016-2018 Actual 2019-2021 Planned 2016-2018 Actual 2019-2021 Planned New Construction 2% 3% 4% 9% Retrofit 16% 19% 22% 26% Consumer Products 63% 37% 71% 56% Behavior 19% 41% 3% 9%

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Program Annual Lifetime 2016-2018 Actual 2019-2021 Planned 2016-2018 Actual 2019-2021 Planned New Construction 8% 7% 15% 14% Retrofit 35% 33% 54% 59% Consumer Products 21% 16% 28% 23% Behavior 36% 44% 3% 4%

Electric Gas

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www.ma-eeac.org | 37 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

UNIT TREND FOR KEY MEASURE CATEGORIES IS IN WRONG DIRECTION

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www.ma-eeac.org | 38 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

UPSTREAM LIGHTING SAVINGS TRANSITION FROM SCREW IN TO LINEAR AND HIGH/LOW BAY, MINIMAL CONTROLS SAVINGS

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  • 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Net MWh

Upstream Lighting Net Annual Savings (MWh)

LED Linear Lamp (TLED) High Bay / Low Bay LED Screw In LED Linear Fixture LED Linear with Controls

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www.ma-eeac.org | 39 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

LIFETIME C&I ELECTRIC COSTS

| 39 $0.00 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.08 $0.09 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Lifetime C&I Electric Program Cost ($/kWh) by PA

Cape Light Compact Eversource National Grid Unitil

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www.ma-eeac.org | 40 2013-2015 Term Report Presentation www.ma-eeac.org 2016-2018 Term Report Presentation

LIFETIME C&I GAS COSTS

| 40 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Annual C&I Gas Program Cost ($/Therm) by PA

Berkshire CMA Eversource Liberty National Grid Unitil