2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan 2015 - 2019 Long Range - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
2015 2019 long range financial plan
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan 2015 - 2019 Long Range - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 07, 2022 645 likes •1k views

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan 2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan Tonights Goals Discuss the economic context over planning horizon. Review the 2015-2019 Long Range Financial Plan with a focus on FY 2014-15. Explain the

slide-1
SLIDE 1

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

slide-2
SLIDE 2
  • Discuss the economic context over planning horizon.
  • Review the 2015-2019 Long Range Financial Plan with a

focus on FY 2014-15.

  • Explain the assumptions that underlie the forecast.
  • Understand the fiscal challenges and future uncertainties.
  • Respond to questions and concerns.
  • Discuss next steps.

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

Tonight’s Goals

slide-3
SLIDE 3

All Signs Point To Expansion

3

34 36 38 40 42 44 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

Avg Hours Worked - Manufacturing

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

Unemployment Rate (SA)

1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, millions)

$70,000 $72,000 $74,000 $76,000 $78,000 $80,000 $82,000 2005Q1 2007Q1 2009Q1 2011Q1 2013Q1

Real Wages and Salaries (SAAR)

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Oregon Growth Improving

Due to Improvement in More Regions

4

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Oregon Employment Gains

QCEW, Year-over-Year

All Counties Portland MSA Ex Portland MSA

  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Sum of Counties North Coast South Coast PDX Valley S Oregon Gorge C Oregon SC/SE Oregon NE Oregon

Private Sector Picking Up

Year-over-Year Growth Rates Mar '13 Jun '13

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Hardest Hit Areas Begin to Recover

5

  • 40%
  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

Bend Employment Growth

Year-over-Year, 3 MMA, QCEW Housing Government Other Private

  • 20%
  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13

Private Sector Employment

Seasonally Adjusted, 3 Month Moving Average Oregon Medford Bend

slide-6
SLIDE 6

6

10-Year Forecast

Table R.2

General Fund Revenue Forecast Summary (Millions of Dollars, Current Law) Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2011-13 % 2013-15 % 2015-17 % 2017-19 % 2019-21 % 2021-23 % Revenue Source Biennium Chg Biennium Chg Biennium Chg Biennium Chg Biennium Chg Biennium Chg Personal Income Taxes 12,118.2 15.8% 13,716.1 13.2% 15,389.6 12.2% 16,929.0 10.0% 18,666.0 10.3% 20,512.6 9.9% Corporate Income Taxes 883.9 6.8% 1,030.5 16.6% 1,069.0 3.7% 1,043.3

  • 2.4%

1,073.1 2.9% 1,167.2 8.8% All Others 1,164.9

  • 5.0%

1,016.3

  • 12.8%

1,001.1

  • 1.5%

1,063.1 6.2% 1,142.7 7.5% 1,220.5 6.8% Gross General Fund 14,167.0 13.1% 15,762.8 11.3% 17,459.7 10.8% 19,035.4 9.0% 20,881.9 9.7% 22,900.3 9.7% Offsets and Transfers (12.0) (67.5) (85.6) (94.5) (57.0) (61.0) Net Revenue 14,155.0 13.0% 15,695.3 10.9% 17,374.1 10.7% 18,940.9 9.0% 20,824.9 9.9% 22,839.3 9.7%

Other taxes include General Fund portions of the Eastern Oregon Severance Tax, Western Oregon Severance Tax and Amusement Device Tax. Commercial Fish Licenses & Fees and Pari-mutual Receipts are included in Other Revenues

slide-7
SLIDE 7

7 7

Biennial Revenue Growth

  • 12%
  • 8%
  • 4%

0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24%

PIT TOTAL

slide-8
SLIDE 8
  • K-12 Education funding improvements after Great

Recession disinvestment.

  • 2013 reforms to PERS provided short-term

expenditure relief.

  • Contract concessions with employee groups still

an issue along with “working conditions”.

  • State is silent on all day KG funding increases in

2015-16.

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

Statewide Education Budget Context

slide-9
SLIDE 9

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

44.8% 42.7% 41.5% 38.8% 38.0% 39.5% 34.0% 36.0% 38.0% 40.0% 42.0% 44.0% 46.0% 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

K-12 Education’s Share of the State Budget

slide-10
SLIDE 10
  • Build on 2013-14 investments in Strategic Plan priorities and
  • bjectives.
  • Launch all day kindergarten in 2015-16.
  • Prioritize and resource instructional technology initiatives.
  • Maintain successful programs, including CLCs, and equitable

class sizes.

  • Appropriately resource continued implementation of

Proficient Learning Model & Common Core State Standards.

  • Provide competitive compensation to attract, recruit & retain

highly effective staff.

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

Long Range Plan Objectives

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Personalized supports that nurture stakeholder engagement, student success, and safe and effective school environments. Wise, transparent stewardship of district resources that are prioritized for student achievement. A highly effective and professional team that prioritizes student growth, values collaboration and seeks continuous growth and improvement.

RSD Strategic Priorities

Balance Resources to Maximize Student Achievement

Every student graduates college-prepared and/or career ready.

Support and Develop Our Human Resources Sustain Safe and Vibrant School Communities Elevate Student Achievement

slide-12
SLIDE 12
  • Legislature’s Education Budget
  • $6.55 Billion + $100 Million K-12 Allocation
  • 51% in the second year
  • Poverty data change & weights increased
  • Growth in local revenues of 4.3%
  • Flat enrollment
  • Non-charter grows 0.2%
  • RPA declines 2.5%

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

2014-15 Revenue Assumptions

slide-13
SLIDE 13

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

State Formula Revenue per ADMw

$1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

$5,801 $6,161 $5,968 $6,051 $5,922 $6,129 $6,246 $6,840 $7,037

slide-14
SLIDE 14

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

October 1st Enrollment

3.2% 3.9% 1.5%

  • 4.1%
  • 2.8%
  • 2.8%
  • 1.8%

1.0% 0.2%

  • 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Students Non Charter Charter In-District Charter Out-of-District % Change Non Charter

slide-15
SLIDE 15
  • State School Fund Task Force recommendations
  • High Cost Disability & ELL
  • Advanced Diploma
  • Definition of Equity
  • Adequacy of formula revenues for all day KG
  • Potential volatility of poverty data & weights
  • Tax Reform
  • Enrollment Growth

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

Revenue Challenges & Uncertainties

Future Impact

slide-16
SLIDE 16

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

State Formula Revenue per ADMw

$- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

$5,801 $6,161 $5,968 $6,051 $5,922 $6,129 $6,246 $6,840 $7,037 $7,049 $7,293 $7,594 $7,866

slide-17
SLIDE 17

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

3.2% 3.9% 1.5%

  • 4.1%
  • 2.8%
  • 2.8%
  • 1.8%

1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.9% 1.5%

  • 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 5,800 6,000 6,200 6,400 6,600 6,800 7,000 7,200 7,400 7,600 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Students Non Charter Charter In-District Charter Out-of-District % Change Non Charter

October 1st Enrollment

slide-18
SLIDE 18
  • Class Size Ratios
  • Minimal FTE Growth – 1.2%
  • Licensed – No growth
  • Classified – 4.06 FTE increase (Technology)
  • Admin – 3.00 FTE increase (Technology; Planning Principal)

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

2014-15 Expenditure Assumptions - Staffing

KG 20.00 (23.00) High School 33.20 (34.00) Grades 1-5 27.60 (27.00) Redmond K-12 Online 68.00 (75.00) Middle School 31.75 (32.00)

slide-19
SLIDE 19
  • Salary-Related
  • No additional days restored (3 workdays short)
  • Horizontal & vertical salary schedule movement
  • No COLA
  • Related Payroll Costs
  • PERS rates – no change in rates
  • Medical Insurance Cap – no increase from $1,145
  • No restoration of tuition reimbursement

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

2014-15 Expenditure Assumptions - Salary

slide-20
SLIDE 20
slide-21
SLIDE 21
slide-22
SLIDE 22

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

RSD Average PERS Rates

16.5% 14.4% 19.0% 26.1% 13.5% 13.1% 17.7% 18.8% 21.8% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15* Excludes 6% member contributions Includes Tier One/Tier Two and OPSRP *Includes impact of 2013 PERS reforms Base Rate Net Rate with Reserves Net Rate with Reform

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Licensed Classified Agreement*

2008-09

3 Cut Days 4% COLA Step Movement Range Movement $988 Ins Cap 3 Cut Days 3% COLA Step Movement $988 Ins Cap $300 Opt-Out 3 Cut Days 3% COLA $988 Ins Cap

2009-10 * 4 Day Week *

3 Cut Days No COLA Step Movement Range Movement $1,038 Ins Cap 3 Cut Days No COLA Step Movement $900-$1,038 Ins $310 Opt-Out 3 Cut Days No COLA $1,038 Ins Cap

2010-11

6 Cut Days No COLA Step Movement Range Movement $1,095 Ins Cap 6 Cut Days No COLA Step Movement $900-$1,095 Ins $330 Opt-Out 6 Cut Days No COLA $1,095 Ins Cap

2011-12

9 Cut Days No COLA 1/3 Step Movement 1/3 Range Movement $1,095 Ins Cap $345 Opt-Out 9 Cut Days No COLA 1/3 Step Movement $900-$1,095 Ins $345 Opt-Out 9 Cut Days No COLA $1,095 Ins Cap

2012-13

15 Cut Days No COLA 1/2 Step Movement Range Movement $1,095 Ins Cap $345 Opt-Out 14 Cut Days No COLA 1/2 Step Movement $900-$1,095 Ins $360 Opt-Out 9 - 14 Cut Days No COLA $1,095 Ins Cap

2013-14

3 Cut Days No COLA 1/6 Step Movement Range Movement $1,145 Ins Cap $345 Opt-Out 3 Cut Days No COLA $950-$1,145 Ins $360 Opt-Out No COLA $1,145 Ins Cap

RSD Compensation Comparison

* Supervisors, Confidential, Administrators.

slide-24
SLIDE 24
  • Purchased Services
  • Decrease of $370,000 due to shift from HDESD service to RSD salaries
  • Charter School Payments increase $270,900 due to estimated growth in ADMw

(poverty weights) and increase in Charter School rate / ADMw

  • Very modest utility cost increases
  • Consumable Supplies & Materials
  • CPI-U – 1.4%
  • Instructional Technology - $250,000 boost to Computer Refresh budget of

$250,000

  • Advanced Placement at RHS - $40,200 in 2014-15
  • Diesel Fuel – modest price decrease
  • Textbooks – CCSS English Language Arts & Literacy Adoption – slight increase over

cost of Interim CCSS English & Math adoption in the current year

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

2014-15 Expenditure Assumptions - Other

slide-25
SLIDE 25
  • Instructional Technology
  • All day kindergarten ramp-up
  • Portland/Medford impact on bargaining
  • Future of Community Learning Centers

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

Expenditure Challenges & Uncertainties

2014-15 Impact

slide-26
SLIDE 26
  • PERS
  • Court ruling
  • Future rates
  • Textbooks vs. e-Resources
  • TIF Grant – last year 2014-15
  • ESEA (NCLB) Waiver impacts
  • Alternative teacher compensation models
  • Alternative education programs
  • Title IA – Targeted Assistance to School-wide Programming

Model

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

Expenditure Challenges & Uncertainties

Future Impact

slide-27
SLIDE 27

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

RSD Average PERS Rates

16.5% 14.4% 19.0% 26.1% 24.1% 13.5% 13.1% 17.7% 18.8% 24.1% 21.8% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15* 2015-17** Excludes 6% member contributions Includes Tier One/Tier Two and OPSRP *Includes impact of 2013 PERS reforms **Based on December 31, 2012 valuation and advisory rates Base Rate Net Rate with Reserves Net Rate with Reform

slide-28
SLIDE 28

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

$0 $610,256 $665,100 $960,100 $1,156,900 $742,600 $857,000 $1,512,578 $902,321 $1,983,000 $2,306,900 $1,150,000 19.07% 23.6% 23.7% 24.8% 24.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% $0 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 $7,000,000 $8,000,000 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Impact of 2013-15 PERS Rate Increase

Program funded Use of reserves Add'l liability Reserve balance Rate

slide-29
SLIDE 29

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

Analysis of General Fund Revenue and Expenditures

$(2,242) $(959) $3,396 $(1,766) $823 $(9) $(1,637)

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 in thousands Total Salaries Other Payroll Costs Non-Salary Expenses Revenues

slide-30
SLIDE 30

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

Analysis of General Fund Revenue and Expenditures Base Scenario

$(1,637) $(951) $(4,223) $(4,265) $(3,933) $(3,801)

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 in thousands Total Salaries Other Payroll Costs Non-Salary Expenses Revenues

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Analysis of General Fund Revenue and Expenditures Break Even in 2015-16 *

* Assumes K-12 Education Funding at 44.5% of State Revenues

$(1,637) $(951) $444 $599 $1,204 $1,606

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 in thousands Total Salaries Other Payroll Costs Non-Salary Expenses Revenues Base Revenues

slide-32
SLIDE 32

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

44.8% 42.7% 41.5% 38.8% 38.0% 39.5% 44.5% 34.0% 36.0% 38.0% 40.0% 42.0% 44.0% 46.0% 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15 2015-17

K-12 Education’s Share of the State Budget Break Even in 2015-16

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Analysis of General Fund Revenue and Expenditures Break Even in 2015-17*

Assumes the following:

  • No increase in PERS rates
  • 5 Contract Days Cut in 2015-16
  • No Steps in 2015-16
  • No COLA in 2015-16 & 2016-17
  • No Health Insurance Cap increase in 2015-17

$(1,638) $(951) $ 77 $102 $618 $956

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

in thousands

Total Salaries Total Salaries 2 Other Payroll Costs Other Payroll Costs 2 Non-Salary Expenses Revenues

slide-34
SLIDE 34

2015 - 2019 Long Range Financial Plan

Next Steps

  • Budget Development
  • First Budget Committee Meeting – April 30
  • Second Budget Committee Meeting & Public Input – May 7
  • Last Budget Committee Meeting & Public Input – May 21
  • Budget Hearing – School Board Adoption – June 25
slide-35
SLIDE 35

District Staff Budget Committee Board Timeline: Jan – June Apr – May Feb – June Budget Version: Proposed Approved Adopted Responsibilities: -Prepare Long Range Financial Plan

  • Convene & conduct

Work Sessions with Budget Task Force, Board and Budget Committee

  • Determine staffing

levels and prepare budget aligned to Board goals and Strategic Plan

  • Review budget for

accuracy & alignment to Strategic Plan

  • Receive Public

Comment

  • Approve budget and

tax levies

  • Gives direction to

budget process

  • Sets financial goals
  • Appoint Budget

Committee members

  • Members of Budget

Committee

  • Budget Hearing
  • Adopt budget, set

appropriations and approve tax levies

Budget Process and Roles