2007 results and outlook
play

2007 results and outlook Press conference February 13, 2008 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2007 results and outlook Press conference February 13, 2008 Performance among the best of the majors Production % 4Q07 vs 4Q06 Production growth : +1.5% to 2.39 Mboe/d 3Q07 vs 3Q06 4 +4.5% underlying growth* 2Q07 vs 2Q06 1Q07 vs


  1. 2007 results and outlook Press conference – February 13, 2008

  2. Performance among the best of the majors Production % 4Q07 vs 4Q06 Production growth : +1.5% to 2.39 Mboe/d 3Q07 vs 3Q06 4 � +4.5% underlying growth* 2Q07 vs 2Q06 1Q07 vs 1Q06 2 Adjusted net income : +6% to record 16.7 B$ XOM CVX RDS BP Capex : 16.1 B$ TOT -2 Net cash flow : +27% to 10.3 B$ -4 Progressive sale of Sanofi shares started end-2007 Results*** (2007 vs 2006) % Adjusted net income EPS 10 5 Dividend increased by 11% in euros, RDS BP or 23% in dollars** TOT XOM CVX -5 -10 -15 * excluding portfolio changes, price effect, impact of OPEC reductions and shutdowns in Nigeria ** 2007 dividend pending approval at the May 16, 2008 Annual Meeting (dollar amount based on 1 € = 1.45 $ at expected payment date for the remainder of the dividend, May 23, 2008) *** adjusted net income expressed in dollars ; estimates based on public data for other majors 1 Press conference – Total – February 13, 2008

  3. Successful growth strategy HDS Leuna Jura HDS Lindsey Main achievements Sale of Milford Haven Shtokman Phase I since start of 2007 Sale of 10% of Joslyn CO 2 capture pilot project 1 Bboe added through exploration Arzew ethane cracker > 50 new permits in 10 countries Port Arthur coker Signature of 2 major agreements Kashagan agreement for the long term Launching development of Sale of Interconnector 6 development projects, Sisi Nubi 2 desulphurization units Dolphin and Port Arthur coker Concluded negotiations on Sincor and Kashagan Rosa Conversion of Sincor Successfully launched major Total-operated projects Upstream-Downstream Swap Ongoing portfolio optimization Ofon II Angola LNG Anguille Pazflor 2 billion boe of potential reserves added in 2007 thanks to exploration and business development* * including contribution from Shtokman Phase I 2 Press conference – Total – February 13, 2008

  4. Major axes of value creation for the long term Hydrocarbon production Priority to safety and preservation of the environment Mboe/d +4% per year on average for 3.5 60$/b 2006-2010(e)* Sustain long-term production growth 80$/b 2.5 Consolidate European refining, modernize Port Arthur, and pursue Jubail refinery project in Saudi Arabia 1.5 Concentrate European and US petrochemicals on major 0.5 integrated sites. Growth from projects based on ethane and in Asia 06 07 08(e) 10(e) 12(e) 15(e) Targeted industrial developments in new energies Capex by segment** for the long term 19 B$ Portfolio optimization (Sanofi-Aventis…) Chemicals 16 B$ Downstream Developing strategic partnerships and Upstream maintaining technological leadership 2007 2008(e) * growth target based on 60 $/b Brent environment, excluding portfolio changes ** including net investment in equity affiliates and non-consolidated companies, excluding acquisitions and based on 1 € = 1.50 $ for 2008(e) 3 Press conference – Total – February 13, 2008

  5. Results Press conference – Total – February 13, 2008 Press conference

  6. 2007 adjusted EPS : +8% expressed in dollars 4Q07 4Q06 % 2007 2006 % Environment Average hydrocarbon price ($/boe) 65.7 49.6 +32% 55.2 51.9 +6% Refining margin indicator TRCV ($/t) 30.1 22.8 +32% 32.5 28.9 +12% Average exchange rate €-$ 1.45 1.29 -11% 1.37 1.26 -8% $/boe €-$ 1.50 100 4Q07 4Q06 % 2007 2006 % in billions of dollars* FX rate Adjusted net operating income 4.6 3.5 +34% 16.8 15.5 +8% from business segments 80 1.40 Adjusted net income 4.5 3.5 +28% 16.7 15.8 +6% Brent Adjusted EPS ($) 1.99 1.54 +29% 7.35 6.83 +8% 1.30 60 in billions of euros 4Q07 4Q06 % 2007 2006 % Adjusted net operating income 3.2 2.7 +19% 12.2 12.4 -1% from business segments Average realized 40 1.20 hydrocarbon price of Total Adjusted net income 3.1 2.7 +14% 12.2 12.6 -3% Adjusted EPS (€) 1.37 1.20 +15% 5.37 5.44 -1% 2006 2007 adjusted income defined as income at replacement cost, excluding special items and Total’s equity share of the amortization of intangible assets related to Sanofi-Aventis merger * dollar amounts converted from euro amounts using the average €-$ rate for the period 4 Press conference – Total – February 13, 2008

  7. Improved performance thanks to growth Adjusted net operating income from segments (B$) 16.8 +1.20 +0.95 (0.50) (0.35) 15.5 Chemicals Environment Costs Exploration Growth and Downstream productivity Upstream +1.1 Including new Upstream +0.85 Downstream- projects Chemicals (0.15) Downstream- Chemicals +0.35 Upstream 2006 2007 Average realized Average realized hydrocarbons price : 52 $/boe hydrocarbons price : 55 $/boe TRCV : 29 $/t TRCV : 32 $/t Average tax rate* : 56% Average tax rate* : 56% Strong sensitivity to favorable environment Benefit of growth and productivity substantially larger than cost increase * tax on adjusted net operating income / (adjusted net operating income – income from equity affiliates, dividends received from investments and amortization of goodwill + tax on adjusted net operating income) 5 Press conference – Total – February 13, 2008

  8. High quality portfolio generating solid results Upstream net operating income* ($) Chevron EPS* ($) Total 160 ExxonMobil RD Shell ExxonMobil 130 BP Total 160 RD Shell Chevron base 100 130 2004 2005 2006 2007 BP base 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 Downstream and Chemicals net operating income* ($) ExxonMobil 130 Total Upstream portfolio highly leveraged RD Shell base 100 to environment Chevron Downstream and Chemicals robust 70 in a volatile environment BP 2004 2005 2006 2007 * adjusted results ; estimates for other majors based on public data 6 Press conference – Total – February 13, 2008

  9. Substantial investment program and disciplined capital management Investment program Profitability (Capex / Capital Employed) (ROACE*) % % Total 40 25 ExxonMobil Chevron 30 20 RD Shell Total BP ExxonMobil Chevron 15 20 BP RD Shell 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 Continuity of Capex program Share of non-producing assets in capital employed approx. 20% at end-2007 Capex level commensurate with sustained long-term growth * profitability of business segments ; estimates for other majors based on public data 7 Press conference – Total – February 13, 2008

  10. 2007 adjusted cash flow : +12% to 24 B$ Cash flow allocation (B$) Net-debt-to-equity ratio % Change in working capital 40 and net debt Share buybacks -53% Divestments 35 Dividends +20% 30 Adjusted cash flow* 25 Investments +8% 20 15 2006 2007 2006 2007 Net investments increased by 16% Gearing maintained around 25-30% Favoring dividend for return to shareholders Sold 0.4% of Sanofi in 4Q 2007 Working capital increase with higher crude price Bought back 1.4% of shares in 2007 Cash flow allocation balanced between reinvesting for future growth and returning value to shareholders * cash flow at replacement cost before change in working capital 8 Press conference – Total – February 13, 2008

  11. 2007 dividend : +11% to 2.07 € per share Pay-out ratio Dividend (based on dollars) (based on $/share) 180 50% Total ($) BP Total BP +21% per year 40% Total (€) on average Chevron RD Shell 140 ExxonMobil 30% RD Shell Chevron 20% ExxonMobil base 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 Best dividend growth among the majors +23% in dollars for 2007 estimates for other majors based on public data 2007 dividend pending approval at the May 16, 2008 Annual Meeting (dollar amount based on 1 € = 1.45 $ at expected payment date for the remainder of the dividend, May 23, 2008) 9 Press conference – Total – February 13, 2008

  12. Upstream Press conference – Total – February 13, 2008 Press conference

  13. Upstream strategy based on operational excellence Rosa (40%) Dalia (40%) Dolphin (24.5%) Ability to manage major growth projects � Technological expertise : deep offshore, heavy oil, LNG, Plateau : 240 kb/d Plateau : 150 kb/d Plateau : 500 kboe/d sour gas, HP/HT… reached in 2Q07 FPSO Girassol : 265 kb/d 340 kboe/d early 2008 early 2008 Ramping up to 2 Bcf/d � Strong discipline in project management in 1H08 Intensive exploration and development to optimize resource recovery Production from the 3 major 2007 projects* � Alwyn/Jura (UK), Mahakam (Indonesia), Bongkot (Thailand), (Dalia, Rosa, Dolphin) Anguille (Gabon), Angola LNG… kboe/d 200 Benefit of historical leadership in major petroleum basins � West Africa, Middle East… 150 Accessing new resources through innovative contractual 100 schemes and strategic partnerships � Ichthys LNG (Australia), Shtokman (Russia), deep-offshore Angola Blocks 17/06 and 15/06 (Angola)… 50 Dec. Dec. June 2006 2007 2008(e) * Total share ; Dalia start-up December 2006 10 Press conference – Total – February 13, 2008

Download Presentation
Download Policy: The content available on the website is offered to you 'AS IS' for your personal information and use only. It cannot be commercialized, licensed, or distributed on other websites without prior consent from the author. To download a presentation, simply click this link. If you encounter any difficulties during the download process, it's possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.

Recommend


More recommend