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1 Ronora Stryker, ASA, MAAA SENIOR PRACTICE RESEARCH ACTUARY Society of Actuaries rstryker@soa.org 12 th Annual Survey of Emerging Risks Top Current Risk, Year-Over-Year 2018 2017 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 3 Hudson - Lake Bloomington TMAX

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Ronora Stryker, ASA, MAAA

SENIOR PRACTICE RESEARCH ACTUARY

Society of Actuaries

rstryker@soa.org

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12th Annual Survey of Emerging Risks

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Top Current Risk, Year-Over-Year

2018 2017

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Hudson - Lake Bloomington

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TMAX TMIN PRCP Month 1961- 1990 1991- 2018 Diff 1961- 1990 1991- 2018 Diff 1961- 1990 1991- 2018 Diff JAN 31.58 33.28 1.70 15.92 18.41 2.50 1.49 1.91 0.42 FEB 36.02 38.29 2.27 19.58 21.90 2.32 1.77 2.15 0.38 MAR 48.54 50.49 1.95 30.09 31.16 1.06 2.75 2.48

  • 0.27

APR 62.47 63.97 1.51 40.68 41.35 0.68 3.85 3.94 0.08 MAY 73.48 74.48 1.00 50.78 52.59 1.81 3.83 4.58 0.75 JUN 82.83 82.60

  • 0.23

60.22 61.78 1.56 3.76 4.91 1.15 JUL 85.29 84.64

  • 0.65

63.84 64.49 0.65 3.77 4.42 0.65 AUG 83.11 83.34 0.23 61.45 62.59 1.13 3.63 4.01 0.38 SEP 77.41 78.36 0.95 54.87 55.05 0.18 3.35 3.35 0.00 OCT 64.76 65.65 0.89 43.60 44.64 1.04 2.62 3.37 0.75 NOV 50.32 50.25

  • 0.07

33.82 33.47

  • 0.35

2.82 2.97 0.14 DEC 36.13 37.73 1.60 21.67 23.91 2.24 2.48 2.13

  • 0.34

ALL 61.07 62.06 0.99 41.45 42.74 1.29 3.01 3.36 0.35

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Presentation Outline

  • Overview and Goals
  • Components
  • Results
  • Website
  • Potential Uses and Future plans

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Goals of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI)

  • Create indices that reflect an actuarial perspective, are objective, and

are easy to understand without being overly simplistic

  • Create one index that measures changes in climate extremes.
  • Use the indices to inform policymakers, insurance professionals, and

the general public on the incidence and impact of extreme events.

  • Promote the actuarial profession by contributing constructively to the

climate change debate Research Sponsors:

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Evolution of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI)

  • Several years in the making
  • Sponsoring organizations determined the need for

the actuarial profession to communicate to the public the actuarial aspects of climate risk

  • Multiple work groups on Development, Design, and

Communications with representatives from each of the organizations meet weekly via conference calls

  • Work with outside vendors and peer reviewers on

climate science, economic data, and design features

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Evolution of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI)

  • The Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) was launched

November 2016.

  • It does not address debate over associated climate

change factors

  • It does not forecast future frequency of extreme

weather events and sea level changes.

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Evolution of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI)

  • Website – ActuariesClimateIndex.org
  • Latest data and results

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The Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) Basics

  • Measures change in frequency of extreme climate

events by comparing recent climate extremes to historical events

  • Six components/sub-indices
  • ACI components are of the form:

(x - µref)/ σref

  • Base/Reference Period: 1961-1990

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The Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) Basics

  • Six Components/Sub-Indices:

1. Temperature Highs (T90′)

  • 2. Temperature Lows (T10′ )
  • 3. Precipitation (P′)
  • 4. Drought (D′)
  • 5. Wind (W′)
  • 6. Sea Level (S′)
  • Actuaries Climate Index = Average of six component

sub-indices

  • ACI = (T90′ –T10′ + P′ + D′ + W′ + S′) / 6

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The Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) Basics

  • Data based on measurements from

meteorological stations and taken over a 2.5° by 2.5°grid (275km x 275km at equator)

  • All data is publicly available
  • Initially Canada and U.S. focus
  • Examine countries separately or together
  • 12 subregions

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The Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) Basics

Frequency of Extreme Temperatures: March 2012

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The Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) Data Sources - Temperature

  • GHCNDEX indices* based on NOAA’s

– Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN-Daily)

  • TX90 = 90%ile warm days
  • TN90 = 90%ile warm nights
  • TX10 = 10%ile cold days
  • TN10 = 10%ile cold nights

* Produced as part of the CLIMDEX project by the Climate

Change Research Centre, at The University of New South Wales, Australia.

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The Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) Data Sources – Precipitation and Drought

  • GHCNDEX indices* based on NOAA’s

– Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN-Daily)

  • Rx5day = monthly maximum five-day

precipitation data

  • CDD = Max days per year with <1mm

precipitation

* Produced as part of the CLIMDEX project by the Climate Change Research Centre, at The University of New South Wales, Australia.

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The Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) Data Sources – Wind Power

  • Wind Power is calculated as the 90th percentile of

the average Wind Speed from the National Centres for Environmental Protection (NCEP)

  • Wind Power is equal to a constant x Wind Speed
  • Wind Power is used, as damages have been found

to be proportional to Wind Power

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The Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) Data Sources – Sea Level

  • Sea Level is our only component that is not based
  • n a gridded dataset
  • It comes from a worldwide database (Permanent

Service for Mean Sea Level)

  • Based on mean monthly Sea Level at 76 coastal

tidal stations; the stations within each region are averaged to produce a regional result

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  • 1.00
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0.00 0.50 1.00 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017

Temperature and Sea Level - Midwest

T10 T90 ACI

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0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017

Wind Power, Precipitation, and Drought - Midwest

D P W ACI

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Website

  • Website includes commentary, documentation,

charts of index components, maps showing variation by region, index data for download, and links to

  • ther information
  • Commentary provided in English and French
  • ACI and ACRI data will be updated quarterly on the

website

  • We send out a news release with each new update
  • Since launch, more than 30,000 visitor sessions

from 120 countries have been tracked, and more than 2,000 data downloads have been made

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Website

www.actuariesclimateindex.org www.indiceactuarielclimatique.org

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Website - About

www.actuariesclimateindex.org

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Three Foundational Documents

  • n the ACI Website

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Website - Explore

www.actuariesclimateindex.org

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Website – Explore – Component Graphs

www.actuariesclimateindex.org

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Website – Explore – Component Graphs

www.actuariesclimateindex.org

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Website – Explore – Regional Graphs

www.actuariesclimateindex.org

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Website – Explore – Regional Graphs

www.actuariesclimateindex.org

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Website – Explore – Maps

www.actuariesclimateindex.org

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Website - Data

www.actuariesclimateindex.org

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Website - FAQs

www.actuariesclimateindex.org

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Website - Data

www.actuariesclimateindex.org

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Potential Uses of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI)

  • Inform the Public Debate
  • Educate Actuaries, Insurance Professionals, and

Others

  • Identify extreme weather and sea level trends
  • Relevant to insured risk
  • Reflect higher risk into risk management

practices and pricing

  • Strategic planning purposes

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Future Research of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI)

  • Currently working on the Actuaries Climate Risk

Index – New index that incorporates risk by looking for correlations between the climate variables in the ACI, to economic losses, mortality and morbidity.

  • New smaller regions
  • New data sources
  • Further analysis of ACI data

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