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Energy; Climate; Action: What Next in a World of Denial? Chris Rapley Director Science Museum Prof. Climate Science - UCL Earth Sciences Visiting Prof. Imperial College 19 th May 2010 3 Friday, 21 May 2010
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Earth System Geosphere Humanity Atmosphere Hydrosphere Biosphere Other Cryosphere Astronomical 5 Friday, 21 May 2010
Bretherton Diagram WCRP IHDP IGBP 6 Friday, 21 May 2010
Earth System • Most complex object in the Universe • Challenge to Study & Understand • No User’s Manual • Finite - No Spares! • “Ecosystem Services” Essential for Life • “Unhealthy State” - Driven by Humans 7 Friday, 21 May 2010
• Global Average Temperature • Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide • Sea Level Rise • Arctic Summer Sea Ice Cover 5 Friday, 21 May 2010
ORGANIC 9 Friday, 21 May 2010
FOSSIL 9 Friday, 21 May 2010
3,500 people for 1h 11 Friday, 21 May 2010
Energy Slaves 87 12 Friday, 21 May 2010
We are all carbon slaves!! Impact of 8-day strike by petrol tanker drivers in Sep 2000 was to bring UK to a halt 13 Friday, 21 May 2010
Carbon Reservoirs & Transfers 500GtC Energy - “Fleeting By-Product” 14 Friday, 21 May 2010
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Transforming the Atmosphere 2100 CO 2 Now Friday, 21 May 2010
Greenhouse Effect 30 o C 17 Friday, 21 May 2010
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 1500 GtC 6 o C Δ T 18 Friday, 21 May 2010
A Pattern of Behaviour 19 Friday, 21 May 2010
Stratospheric Surface Warming Cooling Ice Sheet Mass Changing Seasons Loss & Ecosystem Shifts 20 Friday, 21 May 2010
Ranking of Years by Temperature 21 Friday, 21 May 2010
Arctic Sea Ice Summer Minimum Extent 22 Friday, 21 May 2010
Current Status 23 Friday, 21 May 2010
90% of Heat Imbalance 24 Friday, 21 May 2010
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Attribution 28 Friday, 21 May 2010
Sea Level Rise “Global Thermometer” <2003 - thermal expansion and ice melt >2003 - ice melt - polar ice sheets / glaciers 29 Friday, 21 May 2010
mysteries still to solve 30 Friday, 21 May 2010
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007 Climate Warming Unequivocal Climate forcing primarily Human Serious - Water, Food Supply, Ecosystems, Global Stability 31 Friday, 21 May 2010
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5000y ago 35 Friday, 21 May 2010
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• Climate has always changed • Greenhouse Effect is 30 o C • Natural carbon balance disturbed by humans • Increasing GHGs will increase warming • Warming will alter atmospheric circulation and climates • Pattern of evidence reveals human component of change • Modern world assumes the climate we inherited 6 Friday, 21 May 2010
Safe Climate Change? 450ppm CO 2 equivalent gives a 50:50 chance of 2 o C 1000GtC limit 39 Friday, 21 May 2010
Human Carbon Emissions 8 Friday, 21 May 2010
Decarbonising Humankind 41 Friday, 21 May 2010
Decarbonising Humankind $ Improve Global Equity Maintain Social Stability - Flourish Transition to Low-C World 42 Friday, 21 May 2010
A global revolution is needed in the ways energy is supplied and used 43 Friday, 21 May 2010
Partnership Required Technology Finance Governance Permissions 12 Friday, 21 May 2010
Human Ingenuity Unbounded? 45 Friday, 21 May 2010
Cost-Benefit Analyses Cost of Inaction Exceeds the Cost of Action McKinsey II 11 Friday, 21 May 2010
$20-65Tn to 2050 0.4-1.5%GDP Friday, 21 May 2010
Leadership and Governance 48 Friday, 21 May 2010
Leadership and Governance 49 Friday, 21 May 2010
Governance is critical • Scramble - Events Outpace Actions • Blueprints - Actions Outpace Events 50 Friday, 21 May 2010
“Blueprints” stabilises at 630 ppm CO 2 e “Scramble” passes 1000 ppm CO 2 e in 2100 Source: MIT Friday, 21 May 2010
What people believe matters 15 Friday, 21 May 2010
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Evidence is not the issue 23 Friday, 21 May 2010
People react to information based on their deeply held beliefs They endorse the position shared by those with whom they identify and whose esteem they seek 24 Friday, 21 May 2010
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Climate Science is Uncertain Population Must Be Controlled Nuclear Power is Essential Don’t let UN run the Planet! 26 Friday, 21 May 2010
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Climate Science is Uncertain Population Must Be Controlled Nuclear Power is Essential Don’t let UN run the Planet! 28 Friday, 21 May 2010
• Denial - closed-minded - position staked out in advance - confirmation bias - driven by ideology or religious belief • Scepticism - open-minded - examine claims - consider evidence - follow the facts 33 Friday, 21 May 2010
Denial - closed-minded - position staked out in advance - confirmation bias - driven by ideology or religious belief Scepticism - open-minded - examine claims - consider evidence - follow the facts 33 Friday, 21 May 2010
• Tribalism • Rules of Engagement • “Wild-West” of the Web • Sowers of Doubt • Positive vs Normative issues • Probability and Risk • Who to believe? 34 Friday, 21 May 2010
Mode of Discussion Debate/Advocacy Dialogue • • assuming others have pieces assuming there is one right of the answer answer • • collaborative combative • • about finding common ground about winning • • listening to understand listening for flaws • • exploring assumptions defending assumptions • • discovering new possibilities pursuing your outcome 34 Friday, 21 May 2010
Uniquely Vexed Issue • Evidence Complex & Technical • Disconnect • Inertias • Vested Interests • Inadequate Instruments and Institutions • Challenges foundations of modern world • Trust 35 Friday, 21 May 2010
Science Needs to Address • Observations - What is happening? • Understanding - How and Why? • Prediction - What will happen Where/When? to underpin • Analysis - What could we do? • Ethics - What should we do? • Policy/Politics - What can/will we do? 71 Friday, 21 May 2010
Also ... • Raise Interest • Deepen Understanding • Maintain vigilance over accuracy • Build Trust in Science and its Process 35 Friday, 21 May 2010
Opinion Formers Really MAY BE REAL We need to take this seriously 36 Friday, 21 May 2010
If the climate system were a bank, governments would have rescued it by now Kofi Annan following Hugo Chavez 37 37 Friday, 21 May 2010
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