[1] (jmc@uac.pt) Overview Aores Geographic Location Agent-Based - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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[1] (jmc@uac.pt) Overview Aores Geographic Location Agent-Based - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 23, 2024 372 likes •558 views

Agent-Based Modelling Simulation (ABMS) Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Aores Jos Cascalho [1] (jmc@uac.pt) Overview Aores Geographic Location Agent-Based Modelling Simulation ABMS

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Agent-Based Modelling Simulation (ABMS) Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Açores

José Cascalho (jmc@uac.pt)

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Overview

  • Açores Geographic Location
  • Agent-Based Modelling Simulation
  • ABMS Research Opportunities in Azores
  • Pest control: Termites example;
  • Resources Sustainability: The Azorean Sea;
  • Research Groups & Opportunities: FCT, RIS3

Açores (Regional Program);

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores

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Azores Geographic Location

ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores "Macaronesia location" by ArnoldPlaton - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

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Agent Based Modelling and Simulation

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores [ 4 ]

Couple Human Natural Systems (Ecology)

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ABMS Research Opportunities in Azores

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores

  • Biodiversity: The conservation of the fauna and flora in the

islands and sea;

  • Risk assessment & mitigation: A monitoring of the volcanic

activity and risk assessment & mitigation for earthquakes or land slid events;

  • Pest Control: The pests (rats, termites) are serious threats

to the agriculture and to the built cultural heritage (e.g. Angra do Heroísmo);

  • Marine Resources Management: The overexploitation of

fish resources puts in risk (local) economy, the ecosystems and the biodiversity.

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ABMS Research Opportunities in Azores

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores

  • Biodiversity: The conservation of the fauna and flora in the

islands and sea;

  • Risk assessment & mitigation: A monitoring of the volcanic

activity and risk assessment & mitigation for earthquakes events;

  • Pest Control: The pests (rats, termites) are serious threats

to the agriculture and to the built cultural heritage (e.g. Angra do Heroísmo);

  • Marine Resources Management: The overexploitation of

fish resources puts in risk (local) economy, the ecosystems and the biodiversity.

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(Project) (In progress)

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Pest Control: Termites example

  • ECONOMIC/SOCIAL PROBLEM:

– Termites eat Wood (drywood termite Cryptotermes brevis); – Damage (destruction) the building structure that needs to be replaced or

treated;

– House owners replace wood by concrete (architecture heritage at risk);

  • RESEARCH CHALLENGES:

– Simulate the Spread of the pest (biology, spread model ); – Study the different scenarios for pest control (heat, chemicals, wood

replacement);

– Evaluate (predict) the costs (€, architecture heritage); – Promote the pro-active participation of the inhabitants (social target);

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores

Pest-Control AGENTS Building Structure Infestation Model

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Pest Control: Termite spread

NETLOGO

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores

Participatory Approach:

(Barreteau et al. 2001)

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Pest Control: Participatory approach

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores

Interaction with user (Role: Mayor)

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Pest Control: Participatory approach

Stylized city model

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores

Social sub-model (anxiety) Economic sub-model

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Pest Control: Participatory approach

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Pest Control: Participatory approach

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores

  • Different roles in a Game:

– Mayor; – Inhabitant; – Local authority (Government department);

  • Players' decision-making (when? Why? How?):

– Investment (middle term, long term); – Inhabitants behaviours (e.g. close the window during infestation period); – Demands for economic support (loans, public investment); – Protection laws (e.g. control certificate against termite infestation)

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores

In Serrão Santos, “Maritime spatial planning: An

  • pportunity for

sustainability in fisheries and aquaculture Brussels - 30 May 2013

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Marine Resource Management

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Marine Resource Management

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores

In Serrão Santos, “Maritime spatial planning: An opportunity for sustainability in fisheries and aquaculture”, Brussels - 30 May 2013.

Extractive activity: Fishing

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Marine Resource Management

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores

  • ECOLOGICAL/ECONOMIC/SOCIAL PROBLEM:

– Overexploitation of seamounts (fish stocks reduced, species &

ecosystem endangered);

– Local economy dependent from local species vs. Conservative

measures demands to close fishing grounds;

  • RESEARCH CHALLENGE:

– Integrate data from fish landings, fishing effort, fish ecology and

biology, sea surface temperature, biodiversity and other environmental variables

– Tools for Resource Management:

  • Scenarios for different management options (e.g. closing fishing ground

areas during a period of time)

  • Participatory management (stakeholders, fishermen, researchers, local

authorities);

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Simulated Scenarios for:

  • i. Economic

sustainability;

  • ii. Resource

sustainability; Assessment

  • f policies for

Economic and Environmental management Stakeholders: Fishermen; Researchers; Local authorities Spatial simulation GIS data Ecosystem data Geographic & Location data Fishermen's & Stakeholders behaviour (motivations, believes) Policy management data (constraints, rules)

Seamounts and Islands Ecosystem model Social-Economic models Tools

Knowledge Elicitation Techniques

Conservation and Management Decision Support Tool ABMS Models Participatory Tools

Data

Modelling & Simulation of Resource Management and Sustentability of Seamounts in Azorean Sea - MoSSea

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ABMS: Research Opportunities for Pest Control and Marine Resource Management in Azores [ 15 ]

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Research Groups & Opportunities

  • Pest Control – Participatory Approach;

Project to be submitted to Regional Call – Direção Regional da Ciencia e Tecnologia April/May 2015; Research Group:

– LabMAg & Azorean Biodiversity Group (http://www.gba.uac.pt/)

  • Modelling & Simulation of Resource Management and

Sustentability of Seamounts in Azorean Sea Project to be submited to FCT (and RIS3 Açores); Research Group (in construction):

  • LabMAg & IMAR/DOP (http://www.dop.uac.pt/investigacao)

& Economy & Oceanography

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Obrigado!

  • Publications

Orlando et al. (2013). Towards an Agent Based Modeling: The Prediction and Prevention of the Spread

  • f the Drywood Termite Cryptotermes brevis, EPIA, pp. 480-491. (TERMITES Spread modelling)

Menezes, G. and Giacomello, E. (2013) Spatial and temporal variability of demersal fishes at Condor seamount (Northeast Atlantic). Deep-Sea Research II, 98, pp. 101-113. (CONDOR data) Ressurreição, A. Giacomello (2013). Quantifying the direct use value of Condor seamount. Deep-Sea Research II, 98, pp. 209-217.(Socio-economic Conflit--> Participatory approach!)

  • Emails:

José Cascalho ( http://www.jmc.uac.pt, jmc@uac.pt ) BioISI - LabMAg – Universidade dos Açores João Balsa ( jbalsa@ciencias.ulisboa.pt ) BioISI - LabMAg – Universidade de Lisboa Paulo Trigo (ptrigo@deetc.isel.ipl.pt) BioISI - LabMAg – Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa

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