1 The Political Geography of America's Purple States: Five Trends That Will Decide the 2008 Election William H. Frey and Ruy Teixeira October 10, 2008 National Press Club
Five Trends that will Decide the 2008 Election 1. The Declining White Working Class: Still Central to Election Outcomes in Purple States 2. White College Graduates: Growing and Trending Democratic, Especially in Purple States 3. New Minority Voters: Particularly Important in Fast Growing Purple States 4. It’s the Metros, Stupid 5 Growing Areas are Mostly Trending Democratic
Five Trends that will Decide the 2008 Election 1. The Declining White Working Class: Still Central to Election Outcomes in Purple States 2. White College Graduates: Growing and Trending Democratic, Especially in Purple States
Size of Working Age White Working Class among Eligible Voters, 10 Purple States, 2006 60 54 52 50 49 50 44 42 40 39 38 40 30 25 20 10 0 OH MO MI PA NV CO VA AZ FL NM
Change in White Working Class Share among Eligible Voters, 10 Purple States, 2000-2006 0 NV AZ VA NM FL CO PA MI OH MO -1 -1.3 -1.4 -2 -1.9 -2.2 -2.3 -2.6 -3 -2.8 -2.9 -3.1 -4 -5 -6 -5.7
Size of Working Age White College Graduates among Eligible Voters, 10 Purple States, 2006 30 26 25 21 20 18 17 17 17 16 14 14 14 15 10 5 0 CO VA PA MO MI AZ OH NV FL NM
Change in White College Graduates Share among Eligible Voters, 10 Purple States, 2000-2006 2 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1 1 1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0 PA NV MI CO AZ OH VA FL MO NM
Change in Democratic Margin, White Working Class Vs. White College Graduates, 1988-2004 25 21 19 20 17 15 11 WWC 9 9 10 WCG 4 5 0 National Purple States Ohio Florida -3 -5
Change in Democratic Margin, White Working Class Vs. White College Graduates, 2004-2008 20 18 17 16 14 13 12 12 WWC 9 WCG 7 8 3 4 0 National Purple States Ohio Florida
Democratic Margin, 2004 and 2004-2008 Shift, White Working Class, Intermountain West Vs. Midwest 20 16 15 10 4 5 0 Intermountain West 2004 Dem Margin 2004-2008 Shift in -5 Midwest Margin -10 -9 -15 -20 -25 -30 -27
Democratic Margin, 2004 and 2004-2008 Shift, White College Graduates, Intermountain West Vs. Midwest 20 14 15 10 4 5 Intermountain West 0 Midwest 2004 Dem Margin 2004-2008 Shift in -5 -5 Margin -10 -15 -17 -20
Change in Democratic Margin, Whites with Some College Vs White Working Class as a Whole, 1988-2004 20 17 15 9 10 WWC WSC 5 1 0 National Purple States -3 -5
National Democratic Margins, Whites with Some College, 1988-2008 0 1988 2004 2008 -5 -8 -10 -15 -20 -25 -25 -26 -30
Five Trends that will Decide the 2008 Election 3. New Minority Voters: Particularly Important in Fast Growing Purple States
Size of Minorities among Eligible Voters, 10 Purple States, 2006 60 50 50 40 30 28 27 27 30 20 19 20 14 14 14 10 0 NM FL NV VA AZ CO MI OH MO PA
Change in Minorities Share among Eligible Voters, 10 Purple States, 2000-2006 4.7 5 4.5 4 3.6 3.5 3 2.6 2.5 2.5 1.9 2 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.7 1 0.4 0.5 0 NV FL NM AZ VA PA MO CO OH MI
Democratic Margins, Blacks and Hispanics, 2004 and 2008 100 87 77 80 60 2004 38 2008 40 19 20 0 Black Hispanic
Fast-Growing States: Growth of Eligible Voters by Race, 2000-7 30.0 27% White 25.0 Asian/Other Percent Change 20% 20.0 Black 13% 15.0 Hispanic 12% 9% 10.0 6% 5.0 0.0 o a a o a a c d n -5.0 d d i n i a o a i x r i g v z r e o e o i r l M r F i N l A V o w C e N
Fast-Growing States: Minority Shares of Eligible Voters, 2007 New Mexico 51% Arizona 71% White Hispanic Florida 71% Black Nevada 72% Asian Other Virginia 74% Colorado 81% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Slow-Growing States: Minority Shares of Eligible Voters, 2007 Michigan 82% White Missouri 86% Hispanic Black Ohio 87% Asian Other Pennsylvania 87% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fast-Growing States: Percent of Eligible Voters Born in Same State Nevada 12% Florida 25% Arizona 26% Colorado 35% New M exico 46% Virginia 47% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Slow-Growing States: Percent of Eligible Voters Born in Same State Missouri 62% Ohio 72% Michigan 74% Pennsylvania 76% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Five Trends that will Decide the 2008 Election 4. It’s the Metros, Stupid 5. Growing Areas are Mostly Trending Democratic
Large Metro Shares of State Populations Nevada 72% Las Vegas Virginia 68% DC, Va. Beach, Richmond Arizona 66% Phoenix Florida 56% Miami, Tampa, Orlando Missouri 56% St. Louis, Kansas City Colorado 51% Denver Ohio 48% Cleveland, Columbus, Cinn. Pennsylvania 45% Philadelphia, Pittsburgh Michigan 45% Detroit New Mexico 42% Albuquerque
Ohio Metropolitan Areas and Regions CLEVELAND SUBURBS Toledo CUYAHOGA Sandusky CO. Youngstown NORTHWEST Akron Lima Mansfield Canton NORTHEAST Weirton COLUMBUS SUBURBS FRANKLIN Wheeling Springfield CO. Dayton REGIONS CINCINNATI Parkersburg METRO Counties SOUTH Metropolitan areas Huntington
Cleveland and Columbus Share of Ohio Population, 2007 Cleveland 18% Columbus 16% Rest of State 66%
Cleveland and Columbus Growth, 2000-7 Cleveland Columbus 20.0 16.3 15.0 10.0 5.9 4.3 5.0 0.0 Cuyahoga Suburbs Franklin Co Suburbs -5.0 Co -6.9 -10.0
Eligible Voters: Key Demographic Groups Columbus Cleveland 100% 35 80% 43 57 59 White Working Class 60% 17 Whites Coll Grads 23 15 40% Whites 65+ 18 21 11 Minorities 20% 16 33 14 23 9 7 0% Cuyahoga Suburbs Franklin Suburbs Co Co
Change in Eligible Voters, 2000-2006 Columbus Cleveland 40,000 30,000 20,000 Minorities Whites 65+ 10,000 Whites Coll Grads 0 White Working Class -10,000 -20,000
Change in Presidential Voting Margin by County, 1988-2004 CLEVELAND SUBURBS CUYAHOGA CO. NORTHWEST NORTHEAST COLUMBUS SUBURBS FRANKLIN CO. CINCINNATI METRO Republican Margin Increase 10%+ SOUTH Republican Margin Increase up to 10% Democrat Margin Increase up to 10% Democrat Margin Increase 10%+
Ohio Population Change by County, 2000-7 CLEVELAND SUBURBS CUYAHOGA CO. NORTHWEST NORTHEAST COLUMBUS SUBURBS FRANKLIN CO. CINCINNATI METRO SOUTH 4%+ Decline Up to 4% Decline Up to 6% Growth 6%+ Growth
Colorado Metropolitan Areas and Regions Fort Collins- Loveland Greeley WEST BOULDER DENVER DENVER INNER SUBURBS DENVER OUTER SUBURBS DENVER EAST Grand Junction OUTER SUBURBS COLORADO SPRINGS Pueblo CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS Counties Metropolitan areas
Denver and Suburbs Share of Colorado Population, 2007 Denver City 12% Rest of State Denver 49% InnerSuburbs 31% Denver Outer Suburbs 8%
Denver and Suburbs Growth, 2000-2007 50.0 41.2 40.0 30.0 20.0 9.3 5.8 10.0 0.0 Denver City Denver Denver Outer InnerSuburbs Suburbs
Eligible Voters in Denver: Key Demographic Groups 100% 90% 24 80% 40 43 White Working Class 70% 28 60% Whites Coll Grads 50% Whites 65+ 22 11 40% 41 Minorities 30% 13 20% 37 9 22 10% 10 0% Denver City Denner Denver Outer InnerSuburbs Suburbs
Denver, Change in Eligible Voters, 2000-2006 Denver Denver Denver city Inner Suburbs Outer Suburbs 40,000 30,000 Minorities 20,000 Whites 65+ 10,000 Whites Coll Grads 0 White Working Class -10,000 -20,000
Change in Presidential Voting Margin by County, 1988-2004 WEST BOULDER DENVER DENVER INNER SUBURBS DENVER OUTER DENVER SUBURBS EAST OUTER SUBURBS COLORADO SPRINGS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST Republican Margin Increase 10%+ Republican Margin Increase up to 10% Democrat Margin Increase up to 10% Democrat Margin Increase 10%+
Colorado Population Growth by County, 2000-7 WEST BOULDER DENVER DENVER INNER SUBURBS DENVER OUTER SUBURBS DENVER EAST OUTER SUBURBS COLORADO SPRINGS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST Decline Up to 9% Growth 10% to 19% Growth 20%+ Growth
Virginia Metropolitan Areas and Regions Winchester, VA-WV Washington-Arlington- Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV REGIONS NORTHERN VIRGINIA Counties Metropolitan areas Harrisonburg Charlottesville RICHMOND AND EAST SOUTH AND WEST Richmond Lynchburg Roanoke Blacksburg VIRGINIA BEACH Danville Kingsport-Bristol- Bristol, TN-VA
Northern Virginia and Other VA Region Growth, 2000-7 15.0 16.0 12.0 9.9 8.0 4.7 4.2 4.0 0.0 Northern VA VA Beach Richmond- West East
Eligible Voters: Key Demographic Groups 100% 33 80% 44 White Working Class 60% Whites Coll Grads 35 15 Whites 65+ 40% 14 Minorities 10 20% 27 23 0% Northern VA Rest of State
Change in Eligible Voters, Northern VA, 2000-06 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 Minorities Whites Whites White 65+ Coll Grads Working Class
Percent Born in South, Eligible Voters (2007?) Northern VA 45% 64% VA Beach Richmond-East 76% 82% West 0 20 40 60 80 100
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