1 No duck breeds Distribution of double-cropping rice 2 3 4 - - PDF document

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The rationale for animal health strategies

• invest in protection as long/far as it pays
• based on the law of diminishing returns
• attain economically optimal level of disease

as applies to the given poultry risk environment

• not based on biology or disease ecology
• (will discuss the pathogen perspective later)

emerging disease – what is this? drivers - globalisation, climate change, livestock revolution and what more.....

• market forces explain why there is no more eradication
• no more eradication implies stand-still
• standstill implies biological invasion; disease emergence

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No duck breeds Distribution of double-cropping rice

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Overlay Anatidae flyways (weighted by species Pop.size) with intersecting HPAI 2nd half 2005.

Why is HPAI entrenched in some countries and not in others?

• China
• Mexico
• Pakistan
• Indonesia
• Egypt
• Nigeria
• Bangladesh

crowdedness middle income class small-medium scale holdings + intermediaries

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 200 400 600 800 Agricultural population density (Ag Population / km2 Arable land) Chicken Output / Input (kg meat / animal / year)

Brazil US EU15 China

2 4 6 8 10 50 100

poultry intensification trajectories from 1961 – 2005 for the world top 4 producers

Are we going to vaccinate till the cows come home?

the rationale for people to invest in animal health....

• ptimal level of disease

the rationale behind a pathogen’s ecological strategy....

• ptimal host exploitation level

asymmetry in warfare

virulence transmission host radiation

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an explosive combination....

• minute RNA viruses displaying

promiscuous behaviour

• and dispersive avian hosts

bio-compartmentalisation

wild waterbirds commercial poultry live bird markets village poultry rice – duck reservoirs

How to counter the mutually destructive, bi-directional viral traffic between old and new forms of poultry?

• create HPAI free commercial poultry chains
• licensed to supply HPAI free LBMs of urban centres
• create medium size supply-marketing compartments
• introduce localness concepts at the village level
• keep village chicken away from duck reservoirs and vv
• focus on virus persistence in duck reservoirs (cf Thailand)

long term implications:

• ld and new forms of poultry

don-t go together so let us put an halt to this

• move beyond Public Veterinary Services
• empower communities / city councils
• engage in Public-Private-Partnerships

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