1 No duck breeds Distribution of double-cropping rice 2 3 4 - PDF document

• invest in protection as long/far as it pays The rationale for • based on the law of diminishing returns animal health • attain economically optimal level of disease strategies as applies to the given poultry risk environment • not based on biology or disease ecology • (will discuss the pathogen perspective later) emerging disease – what is this? drivers - globalisation, climate change, livestock revolution and what more..... - market forces explain why there is no more eradication -no more eradication implies stand-still -standstill implies biological invasion; disease emergence 1

No duck breeds Distribution of double-cropping rice 2

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Overlay Anatidae flyways (weighted by species Pop.size) with intersecting HPAI 2 nd half 2005. Why is HPAI entrenched in some countries and not in others? • China • Mexico crowdedness • Pakistan middle income class small-medium scale holdings + • Indonesia intermediaries • Egypt • Nigeria • Bangladesh poultry intensification trajectories from 1961 – 2005 for the world top 4 producers Are we going to vaccinate 10 9 Brazil US 8 8 till EU15 6 7 China Chicken Output / Input (kg meat / animal / year) 4 6 2 5 the cows come home? 0 4 0 50 100 3 2 1 0 0 200 400 600 800 Agricultural population density (Ag Population / km2 Arable land) asymmetry in warfare virulence the rationale for people to invest in animal health.... optimal level of disease the rationale transmission host radiation behind a pathogen’s ecological strategy.... optimal host exploitation level 5

an explosive combination.... • minute RNA viruses displaying promiscuous behaviour • and dispersive avian hosts How to counter the mutually destructive, bio-compartmentalisation bi-directional viral traffic between old and new forms of poultry? wild waterbirds • create HPAI free commercial poultry chains rice – duck reservoirs commercial poultry • licensed to supply HPAI free LBMs of urban centres • create medium size supply-marketing compartments • introduce localness concepts at the village level • keep village chicken away from duck reservoirs and vv village poultry live bird markets • focus on virus persistence in duck reservoirs ( cf Thailand) long term implications: old and new forms of poultry don-t go together so let us put an halt to this • move beyond Public Veterinary Services • empower communities / city councils • engage in Public-Private-Partnerships 6

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